Menzi Chin
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I love talking about this. I talk about it with my students endlessly to their sadness, I'm sure.
I love talking about this. I talk about it with my students endlessly to their sadness, I'm sure.
I love talking about this. I talk about it with my students endlessly to their sadness, I'm sure.
Yes, I think you're right, actually.
Yes, I think you're right, actually.
Yes, I think you're right, actually.
I'd been working in the White House at a time when we had been thinking about the possibility of the onset of a recession. So, you know, that was a natural interest to say, well, what is a good predictor of recessions?
I'd been working in the White House at a time when we had been thinking about the possibility of the onset of a recession. So, you know, that was a natural interest to say, well, what is a good predictor of recessions?
I'd been working in the White House at a time when we had been thinking about the possibility of the onset of a recession. So, you know, that was a natural interest to say, well, what is a good predictor of recessions?
The yield curve, or more specifically, the term spread.
The yield curve, or more specifically, the term spread.
The yield curve, or more specifically, the term spread.
It doesn't cause a recession, but it signals a recession. And so it's reflecting the fact that people are expecting a slowdown.
It doesn't cause a recession, but it signals a recession. And so it's reflecting the fact that people are expecting a slowdown.
It doesn't cause a recession, but it signals a recession. And so it's reflecting the fact that people are expecting a slowdown.
Yeah, I guess you would say on average, the market's better than an individual forecaster.
Yeah, I guess you would say on average, the market's better than an individual forecaster.
Yeah, I guess you would say on average, the market's better than an individual forecaster.
Well, it's still below like a 50% threshold I would use.
Well, it's still below like a 50% threshold I would use.
Well, it's still below like a 50% threshold I would use.