Mark Zandi
Appearances
Consider This from NPR
Are we in a constitutional crisis?
Judges should be ruling. They shouldn't be dictating what you're supposed to be doing. And Why is somebody saying that you're not allowed to?
Consider This from NPR
Trump is betting the economy on his tariff theory
We're raising tariffs on our trading partners. They're responding with tariffs on our products. We're lobbing nasty rhetoric at them. They're doing the same to us.
Consider This from NPR
Trump is betting the economy on his tariff theory
The economic damage so far has been modest. But with each passing day that the war continues, the damage is starting to mount.
Consider This from NPR
When it comes to the economy, it's all about uncertainty
And those are, you know, some big ifs. But if that happens, the typical American household will have to shell out $1,200 to $1,300 more a year to buy the same goods that they're buying now.
Consider This from NPR
When it comes to the economy, it's all about uncertainty
Broad-based tariffs are a real problem for the economy.
Consider This from NPR
When it comes to the economy, it's all about uncertainty
You need some confidence in the rules of the road, and tariffs are a key rule. And if you don't have that, you're not—I don't know that you cut. I don't know that it means you fire people, but I think it does mean you sit on your hands.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Yeah, and understand the risk of investing in the debt of a government like the US Treasury bonds. In fact, Moody's is still the, I think at this time, I may have this wrong, but I think we're the only major rating agency that still has a so-called AAA on US Treasury debt, which is something that may come to the fore here soon. Yeah.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
You know, businesses issue bonds and debt and we rate that and help investors with that risk. So, yeah.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Ja, und du hast recht, politischer Risiko ist in allen Zeiten, was mit Politik, Fiskalpolitik, Taxspendungspolitik, Regulaturpolitik, Monetärpolitik, was die Federal Reserve tut, das ist wichtig, um zu verstehen, wie die Wirtschaft sich verhalten wird. So we have to have a sense of that and have a view on that and provide an assessment on that.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
But in the current context, I keep going back to the trade war because that's front and center here. That's particularly difficult because it's all over the map, right? I mean, the tariffs are changing hourly. And to handle that, we also do what I call, what I think should be called scenarios. We consider different scenarios.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Genau. Also in dem Fall der Kriegswahl gibt es drei oder vier wichtige Überlegungen. Eine ist, wie hoch die Tarife gehen wird und wie lange sie dort bleiben werden und wie lange sie zurückkommen werden, wenn sie zurückkommen werden. Die andere ist, wie andere Länder reagieren. Was wird China tun? Was wird die Europäische Union tun?
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Und dann der dritte ist, und das ist besonders schwierig, wie das Gefühl sich verhalten wird. Weil am Ende des Tages...
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Und natürlich ist die Sentimentation gerade wirklich wichtig, weil die Leute sehr, rechtlich gesagt, sehr nervös sind darüber, wie das alles aussehen wird.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Und die Fritzbox gibt's gratis dazu. Passt?
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
No, I rely on others to do that.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Although it's gotten a little trickier because surveys, as you know, are just given... I get nervous about them. Yeah. Especially, you just need to know what you're... You have to understand the limitations of the surveys that you're using and what's going on. Some surveys are better than others. Some are more biased by political kind of perspectives than others.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
And you just have to be aware of that. So we're not in the business of doing those surveys, but I do rely heavily on those surveys. Yes.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Yeah, you're right. I think maybe a couple of things. Just one, the scale and the scope, right? I mean, it's hard to imagine the president would have done this, right?
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Right? I mean, yeah, even if you, and I did, we thought, oh yeah, there are going to be tariffs, but really?
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Und auch in China, 145% Tarif auf chinesische Produkte. Wenn du mir das sagst, sage ich, du trinkst was. Ich weiß nicht, was du trinkst. Das ist nicht, wo er geht. Ich kann es mir nicht vorstellen, weil das katastrophal sein würde. Und wir werden herausfinden, dass das katastrophal sein wird, wenn wir diesen Weg weitergehen. And then across every country.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
I mean, even, you know, you can see these memes, you know, they're taxing penguins in some island in Antarctica. I mean, really? I mean, and the way they've done it. I mean, you saw the formula they're using to assess the so-called reciprocal tariffs. It's Mickey Mouse. You know, who would have thunk, you know, that that would. But here we are.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Yeah, and this gets to, you know, the scenarios. What are the scenarios? And, you know, my sense is, and of course I am an economist and I am slave to history and I keep going back to what's happened historically. And so Trump 1.0 is still, in my mind, a reasonably good guide path. You know, it's obviously not...
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
you know uh enough but it's helpful and in that scenario once it became back in trump one once it became that that tariff war uh which was primarily with china once it became clear that that was doing real damage to the economy you know manufacturing was in recession agriculture was interesting you may remember president trump was cutting checks to the farmers back in his first term to compensate for the loss of exports to china so uh you know once that becomes clear uh then he uh
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
He struck a deal with the Chinese. It was largely performative. It really didn't change anything. But he was able to declare victory and we moved on. By the way, Chuck, my sense is, if not for the pandemic, we still would have had a tough economy in 2020. We just don't know because of the pandemic. It just altered everything, right?
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
I think he's still going to react. And that's the other reason why markets have been, yes, why haven't they reacted more? Why were they surprised? I think they felt like they would be, the president would be more sensitive to a 15% decline in the stock market, a sell-off in the bond market, you know, a weaker economy. And so far, at least, he's shown some give there.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
I mean, when the bond market sold off after so-called Liberation Day, he did pull back on the reciprocal tariffs. You know, we now have a more... They've been suspended through early July. So he's showing some sensitivity, but I think there was a sense that those things would be stronger guardrails than they have been at least so far.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
I think it starts showing up in the next few weeks for certain items like perishable items, food that we bring across the border.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
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The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Produce, right. I mean, there's been some exemptions for that kind of trade with Mexico and Canada. So, you know, it's been a bit muted, but that's going to show up first. And then I think by Memorial Day, we'll all kind of sense it. And by July 4th, It'll be in our face. I mean, if you want to go buy a car, you know, you'll have to pay more for that car at that point.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Consumer electronics, furniture, clothing. So it's not like this, you know, one day you wake up and you'll see all the inflation and price increases. It'll take time. But I think cumulatively by July 4th, everyone will be well aware that they're paying higher prices for lots of imported goods.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Nein, ich meine, man hört Erinnerungen. Hyundai hat etwas für ein Investition in Südkorea eröffnet. NVIDIA, die große AI-Chip-Firma, hat eröffnet, dass sie große Investitionen hier machen werden. Aber wenn die Geschichte ein Guide ist, sind das nur Erinnerungen an Dinge, die sowieso passieren würden. And even if they do make an announcement, it's not clear they'll follow through.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Do you remember Foxconn? That was a big tech manufacturer. $10 billion deal. Yeah, remember that? And Trump won. And they never followed through. I mean, there's something there now, but it's a shadow of what it was. And the state of Wisconsin actually came up with tax benefits as well. So, no. And it doesn't make sense that they would, right? I mean, if you're a CEO of a major global manufacturer,
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
How can you make a decision about making an investment here that will come to fruition, say, two, three, four, five, six, seven years from now? Because it takes a long time to build and expand these facilities.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Yeah. I mean, what's the tariff going to be? I mean, these are done under executive order. They can be changed with a stroke of the pen, and they are being changed. It's not in legislation. So you're sitting there, you go, well, I don't have any idea. And then there's no transparency around all the exemptions and carve-outs, who's getting a deal, who's not getting a deal.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
So you have no sense of where you stand relative to your competition or others. You're just not going to act on that. So I'd be very surprised, dumbfounded, if we saw any significant pickup of investment here.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Yeah, well, I mean, it's not even nefarious. Oh, it's out in the open. Ja, ich meine, es ist die Fiduciary, der CEO wird argumentieren, es ist meine Fiduciary-Verantwortung. Gott, lass mich einfach nicht damit anfangen.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Aber du hörst meine, ich bin eine öffentlich getradete Firma, ich habe Verkäufer und meine Obligation ist es, die Profite der Firma für diesen Verkäufer zu maximieren. Was soll ich in dem Kontext, in dem ich bin, in der Welt, in der ich lebe, machen?
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Yeah, but I do think companies, this affects behavior. I mean, right now what's happening is companies are sitting on their hands because they have no idea.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Absolut. Und es ist nicht so, als ob sie noch ausbrechen. Es ist nicht so. Nein, es ist warten und sehen, richtig? Warten und sehen. Ich meine, sie sind nicht auf der Hürde. Wenn man sich die Hürde-Rate anschaut, sind sie sehr niedrig. Also das ist das erste, was du für dein Geschäft tust. Du stoppst, Leute zu hirten. Du stoppst, Hände zu füllen, richtig?
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Und dann schneidest du die Stunden, und wir haben einige davon gesehen, und dann stoppst du mit Temp-Hilfe, und du hast viele davon gesehen. Das nächste, was passiert, sind Läufe. Und wenn das passiert, dann sind wir in einer Rezession. Weil das schreckt Konsumenten in den Bunker. Sie stoppen zu sparen, und wir sind in einem negativen Zyklus.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Oh, ja. Ich meine, wenn man sich die Zahlen anschaut, die Doge-Cuts sind wirklich ziemlich klein, modest. So weit, ja. So weit. Aber du hast recht. Sicherlich ist die Regierung nicht mehr ein Ort, wo du einen Job wollen kannst. Du verlierst Jobs. Wenn du auf Sicherheit schaust.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Ja, und vielleicht sogar die wichtigste Sache aus einer breiteren ökonomischen Perspektive ist, dass diese Leute wirklich Dinge tun, die wirklich zählen. Wie sagst du mir, wo der Hurrikan schlagen wird? Oder ist das Flugzeugsystem sicher? Oder wird es ein E-Coli-Bereich geben? Und was soll ich damit tun? Und Measles in Texas? Ich meine, du weißt, und so weiter und so fort.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Ja, und diese Dinge sind kritisch zu einem glücklichen, American population, but also to a well functioning economy. So I, you know, those are the things that are, you just can't, you can't calculate that. You don't know, but it does feel like the path we're on, something is going to break. That is a real consequence out there. That's going to have real meaning to the economy.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Yeah, the Chinese economy clearly was struggling. It was a very weak growth. Unemployment is up. All kinds of kind of more persistent structural problems in the property markets, real estate, housing values were falling. They have big demographic issues. The population is declining. Of course, they don't get many immigrants.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Wenn es um eine autokratische Regierung geht, ist sie nicht wirklich zu einer gut funktionierenden Marktökonomie verabschiedet. Ich denke, sie haben das herausgefunden. Er hat eine Stille über viele der Technologien und andere, die die Innovation und langfristigen ökonomischen Wachstum wichtig sind. Also gab es viele Dinge, die einfach aus den Rädern gegangen sind.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Und es sah aus, als ob die chinesische Ökonomie... being diminished. But I agree, I do think this trade war, particularly with China, is reinvigorating that Xi's standing. I mean, I think people are, like in many other parts of the world, rallying around their flag and saying, we're being attacked, this is a war. And they're rallying around the flag. And at the end of the day, I think the Chinese
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Ich denke, dass Präsident Trump die Bewertungen der Chinesen hier unterschätzt. Sein Gedanke war, dass, weil die USA diesen Vertrags-Defizit halten und wir nicht mehr kaufen, das ihre Produktion und ihre Wirtschaft zerstören wird. Aber die Chinesen haben viele andere Dinge vor sich, und sie können diesen Vertrag wiederhelfen.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Sie können von Brasilien Zwiebeln kaufen, und sie können ihre Maschinen-Tools nach Deutschland senden. They have more fiscal and monetary resources than we do because their fiscal situation is a lot better than ours. The Fed is not going to cut interest rates here. The PBOC, the central bank, they have a lot of leverage here and they're going to use it. This is
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
This may actually reinvigorate China, make them more of a problem, a long run for the US, than if we hadn't gone down this path.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Yeah, you know, this might be a too fine a point, but I'd even go back to prior to President Trump to Obama. I mean, there's, you know, it's clear the Chinese... Oh my God. Yeah, TPP, right, the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Yeah, I mean, because no one would disagree. I think there's widespread consensus view that Chinese don't play fair. The question is, how do you make them play fair? And Trump's strategies just don't play at all. And that hurts everybody. And that's what we're going to see.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
The other strategy was, you know, let's get a free trade deal with the rest of the Pacific Rim nations, the fast growing part of the world, and not let China in until they play fair. And thus, you know, they would ultimately come in. Aber wie Sie bemerkt haben, wurde das in Teilen von der Politik am Ende der Obama-Administration geblieben.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Ich glaube, das war der zweite, der erste oder zweite, nach dem Paris-Akkord, vielleicht der zweite Exekutiv-Order, den Präsident Trump in seinem ersten Termin gezeichnet hat, um das TPP zu nixen. Ein großer Fehler, in meiner Sicht. Wir werden es nie wissen.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
It's just interest rates. You know, the bond market determines rates. The bond market for treasury bonds, the debt the US government issues to finance itself, those treasury bonds are historically deemed to be risk-free. I mean, money good. If you buy that bond, you're going to get paid back.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Better. Better, because it's more liquid. I mean, gold, you know, you've got to Was soll man damit tun? Meine Mutter hat Gold. Ich sagte immer, du solltest dir das Gold verkaufen, aber jetzt bin ich froh, dass sie es nicht macht.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Wenn du durch diese Dinge lebst, gehörst du anders. Und sie hat das gemacht. But it's about the interest rate. In times like these, in a crisis, what market participants, investors would say, a risk-off environment. People are scared. They don't want to take any risk. They historically would buy a treasury bond. Es ist risikofreundlich und das würde die Interestrate herunterladen.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Der Preis würde erhöhen, die Interestrate würde herunterladen. Aber in der aktuellen Situation, und ich charakterisiere das, was wir jetzt haben, als eine Krise, sehen wir nur das Gegenteil. Die Leute verkaufen die Bonds, oder sie kaufen sie nicht. Die Erhöhung geht hoch, der Preis geht runter. Und das ist einfach sehr anders als alles, was wir vorher gesehen haben.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Und gleichzeitig fällt der Wert des Dollars gegen viele Währungen. Also was diese Dinge suggerieren, If you kind of add it all up, is that investors overseas are nervous about putting their money here, that we're losing... Where's the alternative?
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
They're going to the Euro, they're going to the pound, they're going to the Yen. They're not going into the Chinese currency because they can't. But everywhere else that they can, they're going.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Well, the cost of all debt goes up. So, yes, the government's debt now is more costly. So, our interest payments on that debt will rise and that's already been rising. You know, right now, in the coming year, we're going to spend more on interest on the debt than we are on our own defense for the first time in history. And the trend lines here... Das sieht ziemlich schrecklich aus.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Aber es bedeutet auch höhere Betriebsrate. Denke an all diese 30, 40-Jährige, 20, 30, 40-Jährige, die versuchen, sich in ein Zuhause zu befinden. Sie haben es nicht gemacht, weil es nicht so gut ist. Das wird nur schlimmer werden. Autohandelsrate werden erhöht.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Und in Unternehmen, die Geld bezahlen, um rauszukommen und zu investieren, um sich zu erweitern und um ihre Aktivitäten produktiver zu machen, können sie das nicht. Zumindest nicht so günstig. Und deshalb ist es viel teurer.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Well, if the president tomorrow found an off ramp on the trade war, stood down, kind of sort of what he did back in his first term, said, hey, look, I just cut a deal with pick a country and it's a great deal. And, you know, it's great for the United States of America. Declare victory would be the best outcome. But having said that, I'm not sure you can put this genie back in the bottle.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
I mean, this doesn't get turned around in a term, does it? No, to your point, can the rest of the world trust the United States? I mean, the president can change his mind tomorrow, next week, a year from now.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Yeah, well, I'd break out that nice bottle of whiskey hat downstairs and sit down for a while with that. That would be, I just, you know, I think bond investors would throw up all over that and say, oh my gosh.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Ich glaube, du kannst die Knoten verbinden. Ich meine, es ist sehr einfach. Wenn die Interestrate, wenn die FEDs monetäre Politik auf Politik basiert, anstatt auf die Leistung der Ökonomie, haben wir ein Problem. Denn im Endeffekt wird die Politik die Interestrate niedriger machen und die Inflation erhöhen. Und das ist die lange Geschichte davon.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Ich meine, wir haben hier in den USA einen tollen Beispiel. Go back to Nixon, Arthur Burns, who was the head of the Fed during Nixon's term, a friend of Nixon. This is leading up to the 1972 election.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Nixon put pressure on Arthur, and you can go back to the tapes, this is in the public record, so I'm not making this up, put a lot of pressure on Burns not to raise rates, and Burns kept them low, it juiced up the economy, helped Nixon win with a landslide, but look at the inflation that followed in the 70s and 80s.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Ja, ich meine, die FED-Verteidigung ist jetzt in der DNA von FED-Affizienten und sie werden bis zum Ende kämpfen. Aber, du weißt, sein Termin ist auf, Mai 2026, also ein Jahr von jetzt. And it's going to be a real tell as to what President Trump does with that appointment, who he puts in that spot. That's going to be really key.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Well, there's a lot of similarities. I mean, Smoot-Hawley, which was 1930, that was legislation that led to high tariffs in that period. Actually, the effective tariff rate in 1930 is just a little bit lower than the effective tariff rate is today.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Yeah, I think you have to go back into the early 1900s, you know, to find the time. And interestingly enough, we kind of go down this tariff path every 100 years. 1930 and going back to 1828 was Jackson did the same thing.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Yeah, that's a good point. I was going to explain it by, we all, everyone's dead in a hundred years, so the collective memory is gone. You just forget. It's much more simple.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
So there are similar, oh, the big difference between now and then though is back then trade, manufacturing, agriculture were much more important to the economy. Now they're much less important.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Ja, sicher, sicher. Aber ich glaube, mein Punkt ist, in Bezug auf die Frage, was sind die Vergleiche oder Unterschiede zwischen den 1930ern und der Depression, das ist ein großer Punkt. Und dann die andere Sache, und das ist wirklich wichtig, wie diese Handelskriege aussehen werden, In the 30s, other countries retaliated against the United States.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
The US didn't have the same kind of central role militarily. It was important, but not as important. And other countries pushed back and said, you can't do this, you do this. And they did impose their own tariffs. And we got into a tit-for-tat, so-called tit-for-tat trade war. This go around, so far it's only China that is stuck to their guns. And it feels like they will.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
So it's really how this plays out may actually revolve around, you know, other like the European Union or Japan, other trading partners, how they respond. If they kind of go along with it, then, you know, we may be in for higher tariffs for a long time and we're not going to get out of this and it'd be a darker economy in my view.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
If they push back and put more pressure on President Trump, then there's more likely he'll do what he did in his first term and he'll figure out a way to stand down.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Well, I was going to say the countries that are going to get nailed the hardest are the ones that are north and south of us, Canada and Mexico. I mean, Mexico is already in recession for other reasons, the political cycle, but this is going to hurt them. And Canada is going into recession here pretty quickly.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Because, you know, just a stat, and I'm making this up so someone can chat GP to it, but 15 to 20% of Canadian GDP, that's the value of all the things they produce, is just exports to the United States. Mm-hmm. Und in dem Fall von Mexiko sind es 25 bis 30 Prozent. Das gibt dir einen Sinn, wie gefährlich sie sind. Japan ist auch sehr gefährlich, sowohl aus der ökonomischen Sicht.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Sie verkaufen all ihre Autos, viele ihrer Autos zu uns. Und sie bekommen viele der Komponenten von uns. Und auch militärisch. Sie verlangen viel stärker auf die USA für ihre Sicherheit. Und sie sind offensichtlich sehr nervös über die geopolitische Situation im Südamerikanischen Raum. Also diese Länder sind groß.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Interestingly, EM-Economies, when I say EM, I mean emerging markets, kind of the smaller ones. It's very mixed because it depends, but some of them will actually benefit, may even benefit. So like Brazil could benefit because instead of the Chinese buying our soybeans, they're going to buy Brazilian soybeans. And a lot of other EM-Economies that...
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
dass wir mehr mit China handeln können und uns wegwerfen lassen. Und sie werden davon profitieren, wenn dieser Handel von ihnen ausgelöst wird. Aber ich muss sagen, Chuck, breit gesagt, das ist ein Lose-Lose für fast alle. Ich weiß nicht, ob... Nicht jeder wird, wie du sagst, gezwungen werden, aber jeder wird hier die Schmerzen fühlen. Ich sehe hier wirklich keine Gewinner.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Vielleicht, weil eine Sache passieren könnte, es hängt auch davon ab, wie die Menschen reagieren, wie die Welt reagiert. Aber du hast recht, die Vietnameser waren die Posterkinder der Verlust von China nach dem ersten Waffenkrieg im ersten Termin. Alle chinesische Produktion ging in Vietnam. Und wenn das geschlossen wird, dann wird Vietnam verletzt.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Aber es ist schwer zu wissen, wie das alles aussehen wird. Ich bin mir nicht sicher.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Well, no, I mean, I do think in the case of the pandemic, the inflation was the result of things out of the government's control.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Yes, and this is a matter of great debate, but my view is that the amount of support the government gave was calibrated reasonably well to the need and would not have generated the inflation that we suffered, or at least the inflation that got everyone so upset, if not for the Russian war in Ukraine, which came out of nowhere.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
I mean, you know, we were sitting there in late 2021, coming out of the pandemic, looked like everything was, this goes back to the transitory inflation. It was transitory.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Und tatsächlich, damals, die Leute erinnern sich nicht, aber die Inflation war hoch, aber das war positiv, weil wir durch diesen Zeitraum suboptimal Inflation hatten. So I think the calibration was actually extraordinarily well done. It just got blindsided by Russia invading and oil prices going skyward and us paying five bucks for a gallon of regular unleaded by June of 2022.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
What are you going to do with that? I mean, no kind of policy was going to be able to respond to that. So we got unlucky. We got very unlucky around that. But I do think you make a great point. that we do have these two case studies on how government responds to crises. And I think it's very clear that in the financial crisis, the Great Recession, it was underwhelming, it was insufficient.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
And that's why it took us 10 years to kind of get back on our feet. On the pandemic, you know, we're having this argument. I think it got it roughly right. But the point was that the government response was much more fulsome. And I think history will suggest that that's the right response. You know, the government needs to respond. But in this case, the current crises, it's caused by government.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Ich bin Theresa und meine Empfehlung an alle Entrepreneure, startet mit Shopify erfolgreich durch. Ich verwende Shopify schon seit dem ersten Tag und die Plattform macht mir nie Probleme. Ich habe viele Probleme, aber die Plattform ist nie eins davon. Ich habe das Gefühl, dass Shopify ihre Plattform kontinuierlich optimiert. Alles ist super einfach, integrier- und verlinkbar.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Und die Zeit und das Geld, das ich dadurch spare, kann ich anderweitig investieren. Vor allem in Wachstum.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Ich habe das Gefühl, dass Shopify ihre Plattform kontinuierlich optimiert. Alles ist super einfach, integrier- und verlinkbar. Und die Zeit und das Geld, das ich dadurch spare, kann ich anderweitig investieren. Vor allem in Wachstum.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Nö, bei uns nur den halben. Wie wär's zum Beispiel mit bis zu 1000 Mbit pro Sekunde für nur 29,95 Euro im Monat?
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Ich bin Charissa und meine Empfehlung an alle Entrepreneure, startet mit Shopify erfolgreich durch. Ich verwende Shopify schon seit dem ersten Tag und die Plattform macht mir nie Probleme. Ich habe viele Probleme, aber die Plattform ist nie eins davon. Ich habe das Gefühl, dass Shopify ihre Plattform kontinuierlich optimiert. Alles ist super einfach, integrier- und verlinkbar.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Und die Zeit und das Geld, das ich dadurch spare, kann ich anderweitig investieren. Vor allem in Wachstum.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Yeah, well, Chuck, it's so good to be with you. I do remember, I was going to say you used the word fondly back to the financial crisis, but I don't know if that's the right word. Fondly is a tough word to use.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Well, you had a great team, too. I still talk with a few, like Charlie Herman. Do you remember Charlie Herman? Yeah. Anyway, so Moody's Analytics, we're a... Es ist eine Finanzanalysefirma, die sich um Risiken konzentriert. Allerlei Risiken. Mein Teil der Welt ist natürlich der makroökonomische Risiko. Und das ist vorderlich und zentral jetzt mit der Trägerwahl. Ich erhalte viel Interesse intern.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
Jeder will darüber sprechen. Das ist eine gute Sache, ich denke. But we have folks that work on everything from climate risk to related risks that the insurance companies face, to risks that the banking system has with regard to capital and liquidity, enterprise risk, cyber risk. We provide all that information to manage risks. Who would hire you? A company or a country or both?
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
All of the above, right? The federal government, the US government is a large client or has been, you know, to try to understand, you know, who they're dealing with. We help understand, help them understand that when they have different kind of counterparties for different types of activities, defense related or the tax related activities.
The Chuck ToddCast
Will Donald Trump’s Trade War Tank The U.S. Economy?
My group does a lot of work with Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the FHA. These are the mortgage lenders and we help them with mortgage credit risk. But large corporations, global financial institutions, it's a big company. I think it's $8 billion in total now. Moody's in total, so it's a big company.
Up First from NPR
Global Markets Plummet, Wrongful Deportation Deadline, Second Measles Death
Investors are very nervous about what's going on. I'm sure they're calling lawmakers and the White House to pressure them to come to some kind of terms with other countries over these tariffs, bring this global trade war to an end, because if they don't, Soon, the economy is going to go into recession.