Mark Blyth
Appearances
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
And then after that, for a long period, we had pretty low inflation and pretty high growth. So the story of the 70s was, that's what happened. Government bad. Market's kind of good. Government can't be trusted. Spend too much money. Federal Reserve good, independent. Keep them away from the politicians. Push interest rates up. Crush the economy. Sorry, unemployment. But don't worry.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
It'll only be two years, and then everything will be fine. That was the story. And everything is interpreted through that moment.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
Exactly. I don't think it's totally wrong. I think it's incomplete.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
What actually happened, if you go back to the 60s, you got half a million people in Vietnam, 2 million in support. Now add, for the first time in American history, women and minorities coming into the labor market at scale for the first time. You would think that that would be an increase in supply. Price would go down, right?
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
what they do is they all start becoming consumers. They start buying stuff with their wages, right? You see where this is going, right?
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
Big failed harvests, wheat harvests, Canada, the United States, USSR, as it was at that point in time. Global commodity prices start going up. 1973, in response to the Middle East war, OPEC jacks up oil prices from $4 a barrel to $16 a barrel. Given how oil dependent the US and all the other economies are at that point, we're all big manufacturing economies. This is what we call a supply shock.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
somebody took supply off the market.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
So if you think about it, what actually happened was rather than people's expectations of prices getting unhinged, not really what's going on, it was a decade in which you got all of these supply shocks. Everyone just got up one morning and went, oh, things are getting more expensive. Slam. Shit, things are getting even more expensive. Slam. Can we stop getting slammed, please?
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
What seems to be the most common cause is we just get hit with all these supply shocks randomly. And then each of them have an inflationary impulse. Each of them die.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
By the time that Volcker came in and made the price of borrowing incredibly expensive, the damn thing was nearly half over. He caused the recession that he didn't need to.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
Time to check your bank accounts. The first of the stimulus payments started to appear in accounts over the weekend, and this is just the first.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
The first one is the government spends too much money. It's Biden. It's the stimulus, right? All those stimulus checks. You had bros investing in crypto. Everyone's sitting at home, like, playing Xbox. I mean, it's absolutely ridiculous. Blah, blah, blah, right?
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
But... Problem is, countries that didn't mail out checks had just as much inflation. Oh, interesting. Right? So just let's park that. But it's one story. It's a very powerful story, right?
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
That's the labor market story we spoke about before. This is Larry Summers. You might remember, he said, we need to have 7% unemployment for two years to cure the inflation, this sort of stuff. And what he's thinking is, OK, this is maybe started by too much government money. But the problem is, you've got a really tight labor market. And people are going to start to expect price increases.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
So you're going to get wage increases. And then you're going to get that spiral. And we're back in the 70s. And we know the only way to break that is to push interest rates up. That's what we learned from Paul Volcker, right?
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
And so they have an expectation that prices will go up. So therefore they need to have more wages to compensate. And you get that kind of two of them pushing up together.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
Exactly, which leads us to number three, which is the story about greedy corporations. So the story that then comes out is, yeah, but maybe the government spent too much money. That's your ignition, right? And then maybe people start to say, things are getting too expensive relative to my income. I need a pay rise. Totally reasonable, right?
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
But then what happens is big corporations, particularly the ones that have a lot of market power, like there's basically two companies that do all the chicken in the United States, this sort of stuff, right? They can absorb those costs and they can pass them on to the consumer to protect their profits. That's why prices rise. We get that. But then they go a little bit further.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
Then they actually push on their profit margins.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
And then they make super profits. And that's why eggs cost much more than they did. That's why beef cost much more than they did. It's all these concentrated markets. And then they don't push it back down. That's why things don't go back down. So whether that's right or wrong, that's story number three.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
Yeah, greedflation. I actually prefer seller's inflation. That's actually the better term for it because it's the people who sell stuff on, right? And then the final one is the one that basically Paul Krugman was banging on about on other people. It's just basically, this is just a big supply shock. COVID was just a supply shock.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
All it meant was we couldn't get crap because it was all made in China. That's a supply shock, right?
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
So add all this together, you've got four very different stories. They're not mutually incompatible, but people tend to believe one rather than the other. Right. And you've got good political motivations behind that, right?
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
If you're a good, full-fashioned, low-tax Republican, and you think the government spends money on a load of crap and people who don't deserve it, you're probably going to believe the Biden stimulus is behind it. Right. Right? So there are motivated reasons behind this. So these are the four stories that you get.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
The biggest remaining thing that we've got right now in inflation is rent. So it's rent. It's the cost of rent. The rent is too damn high everywhere across America, across Europe, across every major city. Why is this? It's because we stopped building houses for normal people 30 years ago. There's just a supply shortage.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
So if you're making the interest rate on mortgages more expensive, less building and construction is going to go on. A certain number of apartments and buildings just die every year. They're usually replaced. If it's too expensive to do the replacement cost, guess what? You've got a shortage of rentals. So what are you going to get? You're going to get a supply constraint.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
You ain't got enough places to rent out. So if the Fed raises interest rates to cool the economy, what is it doing to the housing market? It's making sure that you're spending almost a third to a half year income on rent. You know, if your rent goes up by 30%, hell yeah, that's going to hurt, right? Right.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
Now, this also tells us something else that's really important and never gets in the discussion of inflation. It matters where you sit in the income distribution. If you're a rich person, relative to your income, you don't consume much. And inflation is all about the stuff that you consume.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
If you're a really rich person and you don't have a mortgage and you don't spend your money on fine bottles of Chateau Lafite every week, even if you do, it probably won't make a difference, right? You don't consume that much. You're not hurt that much by inflation.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
If you're a single mom and you're working two jobs and your prices are going through the roof and you can't afford child care and your life's falling apart and your landlord's throwing you out because you can get someone else to pay a higher rent, it absolutely mars.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
So it's like how it affects us individually across the income distribution. This is why people are pissed when people tell them inflation's going down. Because the level ain't going down, right? It's still 45 for a beef rib and that's absolutely scandalous.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
It'll only be $47. It's really cold comfort.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
Absolutely. I mean, honestly, in terms of giving people relief, think about it this way. If you don't have to spend as much money on the same wage, what I've done is I've increased your real wage. Right. Right? So if I can make everybody's rents 20% cheaper by increasing the supply of housing, That's a 20% wage increase. Right.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
Yeah, I think you are. I think you've got both of them right there. I mean, let's take the Trump one and take it seriously, right? If you throw out every migrant in America, which would include me because I'm one of them, would you have less workers? Hell yeah, right?
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
But then you've got a big problem, because a lot of the people that you've got there who are the people you want to throw out are the ones that put food on the table, because they literally work on farms. None of us do that anymore. So I don't know how you're actually going to get the 40-year-old people who are out of work in some part of the United States to become agricultural workers.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
There's a huge labor supply-demand mismatch in this idea. But let's suppose you could do that, and you can get everybody out, and then there's less workers, and that means employers have to pay more. How are employers going to pay for that?
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
Well, either they're really clever and they can increase productivity to pay for the wages, or they'll just push on the prices to everybody else who are the workers. Right, right. I mean, it doesn't come from nowhere, right?
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
That's right. And unless they have a magic avocado picker, which would automate the process and increase productivity, then they're going to have to push that on in prices. But if they did have that, that would lead to unemployment, right? Right. Right. Now, do the same with the tariffs, right? I'm going to put up 100% tariff against China. Everything in Walmart is made in China. Right.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
So everything in Walmart now doubled in price. All those workers that you just gave a pay rise, they're getting it both from domestic costs and from international costs.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
I'm just playing a guitar.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
Now, there's a better argument for it which goes like this. And again, it's the productivity thing, right? If I put up tariffs, what I'm doing is two things. I'm advantaging American goods over foreign goods. So Walmart can stock American goods. Well, the problem is we don't make enough of the stuff that we actually consume. That would be an incentive for American firms to do a lot more, right?
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
Whether they would take up the incentive in any reasonable amount of time or whether they would just basically not bother. We don't know, right? So there are arguments around tariffs. It's called the optimal tariff about how much you can raise relative to costs, all this sort of stuff. But at the end of the day, generally speaking, most of us are a bit skeptical of the work in these things.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
You get shortages, and the price goes up, all the rest of it. You're basically making foreign prices more expensive than domestic prices on the assumption that domestic production will take up that slack. It's not clear to me we're going to do this. Give you one example of Yeah. Remember during the pandemic, we had all this stuff about PPE, personal protective equipment? Yeah, yeah. Right.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
Oh, God, no. I fucking hate Oasis. Basically, it's a Beatles tribute band through two monkeys.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
Oh my God, it's all made in China. It's terrible, right? From permitting and planning to opening it up, how long do you think it would take to open up a factory in the United States that makes cotton buds? How long would it take? Five years. Five years? Five years. And that's just for goddamn cotton buds.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
You know, the things you stick in your ear. Oh, Q-tip. Q-tips, right.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
Yep. Seriously. Now, in some places, it may take about three years. TechSoup probably has easier permitting. But the point is, if you're not making this stuff now, you don't just turn on a tap overnight and make it.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
It's wishful thinking. If we change this price, magically everything will appear. No, I don't think so. I think you just end up with a bunch of shortages and inflation.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
And that's what Biden is trying to do with the Inflation Reduction Act. And if you think about it, Biden didn't take down any of Trump's original tariffs. Trump mentioned that in the debate. And why not? Well, because ultimately, if you're going to rebuild an industry that China's got leaps and bounds ahead in, you have to have tariffs. Otherwise, yours will never be competitive.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
The real problem with us is just basically, though, they're so far ahead and the technologies are so well known that things like with solar panels, I mean, we could spend billions making American solar panels. And they'll never be as cheap as the Chinese stuff, because ultimately, it's a pretty simple technology.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
And they have those huge firms, state-owned enterprises, with all the critical minerals and the polysilicon. It's all made there, right? To make our solar panels here, we need to import the polysilicon from there and turn it into a panel. Just let them do the panel. It's so much easier for them to do the panel.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
We should be trying to do the stuff that's higher up the value chain, carbon capture and storage, small nuclear reactors, all the stuff they can't do. But that doesn't supply as many jobs, and it's a bit more of a wild bet. Right.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
I would say, did you really evade bad inflation? Was the raise from 0.5% that instrumental in causing the fall in inflation? Or was it kind of like performing a circus trick at the side of the circle while the real action is going on elsewhere? In other words, it was supply shocks. They come along. They dissipate. You're fine. Were the central banks really in control of this?
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
Were the ones whose magic wand and Jedi mind tricks over expectations really what was driving the show? Maybe it was. I can be open to that argument. But there's also a bunch of other stuff that's going on. So the biggest problem you ever have with diagnosis is a bad diagnosis. Any treatment with a bad diagnosis is not going to work. I think we have incomplete diagnosis.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
I think that we need to be more thorough in our diagnosis of what's going on. Because if at the end of the day, you really believe the story is like there's one tool, one hammer, one nail, interest rates recession, kick it out of the system, what you're saying is some of the most vulnerable people in our society are the ones that are always going to have to pay for the costs.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
The control valve becomes unemployment. And it's not my unemployment. And it's not your unemployment. It's their unemployment. Right. That is the stakes of them being wrong if, in fact, they're wrong. Exactly.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
First of all, I just want to say that really makes me trust you. And to think, I just wrote a book about the damn thing. So, you know, I must be into boring myself.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
Well, when you spend the past year writing a book on it, you're like, do you think you know one or two things about that? If I don't, I'm in trouble.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
This is a really good question. Some of it was pretty boring to write, I have to be honest. Why write a book about something you think you understand, right? Now, why do we, as in sort of people in my job, I'm a political economist, we talk about this sort of stuff all day. Why do we think we understood inflation? Because we were all raised on a story about the 70s.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
We'll talk about that story in the 1970s. I began to doubt the story of the 1970s. And once you begin to doubt the story of the 1970s, a lot of the stuff that we do when we talk about inflation and the stuff that we do doesn't make much sense. That's why the book became more interesting.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
What is inflation? Inflation is a rise in the general level of all prices. It's everything going up. When people talk about house inflation, there's no such thing. That's just houses going up because we didn't build enough of them, right? And inflation is all prices in the economy going up at once. Now, wait. Hold on. It gets better. Hold on.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
That makes sense to everybody, because it totally makes sense, right? Now, imagine you're looking at a glass of water, and you're looking at the top, and you've got that little line of silver at the top called the surface tension. When economists talk about inflation, they're actually looking at the surface tension.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
Because what they talk about when they talk about inflation is the rate of change in that growth of prices. So let's take a simple example. I went to dinner on Sunday with my family. I ordered a short rib. I nearly fell off the seat because the damn thing cost $45. I was like, what?
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
And this is an effect that's happened in inflation. You know that stuff used to be $30, and then it went up to $40, and now it's stuck at $45, and it's never going to be $30 again. Now, when an economist tells you, ah, but inflation's been falling for the past six months, what they mean by that is the rate of change in how fast it's going up has been coming down. Ah. So, right?
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
This is it. It's the rate of change in the increase in prices. That's the inflation rate. Inflation as a phenomena is the general level of all prices going up.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
That's a valedictorian. Got it.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
So the basic understanding is the government spends too much money and that pushes up prices. That relies on you having a government that actually spends a lot of money, raises a lot of taxes, runs a lot of deficits, all this sort of stuff. And most of human history, I mean, we didn't even have a government. We had bloody anarchies running around the place and empires and stuff.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
That's not to say there wasn't a great big inflationary period in the time of the Roman Empire. There's been other sort of historical examples of this, but modern inflation, something different. And we draw all of our examples from the 1970s.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
Right. So kids, there was a time called the 1970s. It's when everyone was a swinger and had sideburns, right? Right. And it was all crazy. And Starsky and Hutch was a popular TV show. Now, what else happened in the 1970s? So go back a little bit. You had the Vietnam War.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
So what that means is you have the government spending a lot of money. You've got a lot of people taken out of the labor market, shipped off to Southeast Asia. You've got a lot of government spending, all this sort of stuff. And the basic gloss of the story is that everybody was spending a lot of money then, more than they could cover with taxes.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
And economies all through the developed world, all through the West, started to slow down. And that's a bit of a problem.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
Government needs drywall as well.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
Exactly. And not just that, you're pulling in marginal workers to cover them, and you've got super tight labor markets. Unemployment's pretty much non-existent. So what that means is you can be the dumbest person in your firm, leave a job at 12, get a better paid one at four, because everyone's competing for the last possible worker. Right. Got it.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
So what then happens, and this is the official story, is that people began to focus on what are called their future expectations of prices. Now, stay with me on this because it's important, right? So people are used to prices being stable. And then they become unstable. They start to rise.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
So then they start to say to themselves, well, I'm going to have to get a higher wage because everything's gone up. So they go to the employer and say, give me a higher wage. And the employer says, no, because I'm dealing with higher prices. And they said, well, fine. We'll go on strike. Now, remember, this is the 70s. 25% of people were in unions at that point in time.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
Back in the day, things were made in the country. If you went on strike, you held up the production of the firm. So then the employee goes, oh, shit, I'll have to give you a pay rise. So then they give you a pay rise. And then to cover that cost, they then raise their prices. And this creates what economists of the time called a wage price spiral. And it just kept going up and up and up.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
Now, that's a super dangerous thing because it's going to get out of control. You're going to get to what we call hyperinflation when it's just totally think Argentina, right? This sort of stuff.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
So what we need to do is slam on the brakes. So how do you slam on the brakes? Well, you can't ask the government to do it. They're the criminals. They're the ones who are spending the money. So you've got to go to the police. Who are the police? The central bankers.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
Paul Volcker is the central banker who's appointed by Jimmy Carter to run the Fed. And he basically says, right, I'll sort this out. I'm going to make the cost of borrowing money eye-wateringly expensive because I'm shoving interest rates up to 16%, 18%. But what happened was the inflation rate collapsed. And then by 1984, the inflation was more or less over.
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Is everyone pretending to understand inflation (or just me)?
And it was Reagan's famous morning in America.
The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
So we have smaller models, and they're effective, as we said, because of cost, and they're popular because of cost. What does that do to the requirements in terms of compute?
The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
When we think about the alignment in compute and models, we had David Kahn from Sequoia on the show and he said that you would never train a frontier model on the same data center twice. Meaning that essentially there is now a misalignment in the development speed of models and that is much faster than the development speed of new hardware and compute. How do you think about that?
The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
So we are releasing new models so fast that computers are unable to keep up with them. And as a result, you won't want to train your new model on old H100 hardware that is 18 months old. You need continuously the newest hardware for every single new frontier model.
The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
Speaking of that commoditization, the thing that I'm interested by there is kind of the benchmarking or the determination that they are suddenly commoditized or kind of equal performance. You said before LLM evaluation is a minefield. Help me understand why is LLM evaluation a minefield?
The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
We mentioned that, you know, some of the early use cases in terms of passing the bar, some real kind of wild applications in terms of how models are applied. I do just want to kind of move a layer deeper to the companies building the products and the leaders leading those companies. You've got Zach and Demis who are saying that AGI is further out than we think.
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
And then you have Sam Altman and you have Dario and Elon in some cases saying it's sooner than we think. What are your reflections and analysis on company leader predictions on AGI?
The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
Is it possible to have a dual strategy of chasing AGI and superintelligence, as OpenAI very clearly are, and creating valuable products at the same time that can be used in everyday use? Or is that balance actually mutually exclusive?
The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
If I push you, if you think about your priority, your priority at OpenAI is, say, achieving superintelligence and AGI. Their best researchers, their best developers, the core of their budgets will go to that. When you have dual priorities, one takes the priority. And so there is that conflict.
The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
What did you mean when you said to me that AI companies should pivot from creating gods to building products?
The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
Do you think it's even possible for companies to compete in any level of AGI pursuit? When you look at the players and the cash that they're willing to spend, you know, Zuck has committed $50 billion over the next three years. When you look at how much OpenAI has raised over the last three years and they carry on that run rate, it's something crazy like that.
The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
It'd still be $38 billion short of a Zuck spend over a three-year period. Can you create AGI-like products or God-like products unless you are Google, Amazon, Apple, or Facebook?
The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
With the commoditization of those models and the appreciation that value can be built on top of them, does that not go back to what I said, though, which is really there is three to four core models which are financed by cash cow cloud businesses. You know, the obvious says Amazon, there's Google. And then for Facebook, there's obviously Instagram and News Feed.
The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
And there are three large model providers which sit as the foundational model there. And then every bit of value is built on top of them.
The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
If you were, as you said at the beginning about kind of your work on policy, you have US regulators and European regulators, what would you put forward as the most proactive and effective policy for US and European regulation around AI and models?
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
When I had Ethan Mollick on from Wharton, he was like, you know, the best thing to do actually is like a allow and watch a policy. He had a much more academic approach to it in terms of naming than that with, you know, wonderful principle from some ancient learning professor.
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
But he said essentially we should let everything flourish and then regulate from there rather than proactively regulate ahead of time, not knowing outcomes. Does that ring true to you?
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
Just on the verification side there, and kind of you said about the deep fakes, I think it was Syash said on Twitter recently with a great highlighting that the biggest danger of AI to him was actually not that we would believe fake news. It was that we would start to distrust and not believe real news.
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
How are you not skeptical that that's a real danger? We're a media company. We have amazing media people who use AI every day. We could create some terrible things with AI today, people would believe.
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
We could not have created Trump fakes with his voice declaring war on China. I could do a fake show with Trump today and release it and pretend that it's real and have him declare war on China.
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
Do we not see then in that world that actually a lot more value accrues to significant mainstream media outlets who are verified and have brand validity already?
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
Does that worry you? Like, I understand, but sadly, I don't think people are always as smart as we give them credit for. And when you look at the spread of misinformation, and when you look at the willingness to accept misinformation from large swathes of the population, A tweet with an AI-generated picture with whatever it could be in there can create such societal damage.
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
This is really worrying.
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
You said there about kind of confirming existing beliefs. Does that distinction matter though? Because actually you could have someone who is naturally, you know, we've had riots in the UK in recent, in the last few weeks.
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
And actually you could have AI generated images with many more migrants or many more rioters than there actually are with the incitement that you should join because this is happening. And the confirmation material, which is that AI-generated material, leads to action to take place. It doesn't actually matter. The point is it incites action.
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
So are social media companies, aka the distribution platforms, are they the arbiters of justice on what is a malicious AI image versus what isn't?
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
I feel like I worry more about this than you on the content misinformation side. And so I'm intrigued on the concerns that you have. What would you say is a more pressing concern for you?
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
One thing I think we're just so far off on, Arvind, is medical doctors. Everyone's like, you're going to have a GP in your pocket with AI. Are you high? GPs feel your elbow. They look at x-rays, look inside your ear and see very specific things. They look up your nose. You're not going to shove your smartphone up your nostril. You know, it can't feel your arm.
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
Can you help me understand why I'm wrong and why AI will revolutionize medical with a GP in everyone's pocket?
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
You have now arrived at your destination. Arvind, I am so excited for this, dude. I was telling you just now, I am one of your biggest fans on the Substack newsletter. I can't wait for the book. So thank you so much for joining me today. Thank you. I really appreciate that.
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
I'm glad that I'm not alone in my skepticism there. Because applied to education, again, everyone says it's amazing you have a tutor in your pocket. Yeah. We do also have your videos that we can watch at home. A tutor has personal relationships. It's one-to-one where I want to impress you of, and I have that personal desire to fulfill abilities, potentials that doesn't have.
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
How do you think AI impacts the future of education, one-on-one tuition, and that up-leveling of students?
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
Now, I want to get pretty much straight into it, but for those that don't read the substat, which they should do, can you just provide a 60-second intro, some context on why you're so well-versed to speak on the topics that we are today?
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
Do you think people dramatically overestimate the fear of job replacement? We always see job replacement with any new technology and then it tends to create a lot more jobs than it previously were. Do you think that is the case here or do you think job replacement fears are justified?
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
Another one that does worry me is actually defense. We had Alex Wang from ScaleOn I mentioned earlier. He said that AI has the potential to be a bigger weapon than nuclear weapons. How do you think about that? And if that is the case, should we really have open models?
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
Arvind, what did you believe about the developments that we've seen in AI over the last two years that you now no longer believe?
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
I would just love to start because you have done some work in the cryptocurrency field, done a lot of work in the crypto field. I'd just love to start before we dive in deep on infrastructure. How does the AI hype today compare to Bitcoin hype? How is it the same and how is it different?
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
And the reasons for that lack of progression, sorry.
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
What do you think society's biggest misconception of AI is today?
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
I'd love to do a quick fire round. I could talk to you all day, but I'd love to give you a quick fire round. So I say a short statement, you give me your immediate thoughts. Does that sound okay? Let's do it. Why are AI leaderboards no longer useful?
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
If you were CEO of OpenAI for a day, what would you do?
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
What is your vision for the future of agents?
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
This is 20VC with me, Harry Stebbings, and we're sitting down today with one of my favorite writers in AI. He's been a big proponent in the belief that despite what many people think, increasing the amount of compute from this point will be unlikely to increase model performance significantly moving forward.
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
Will companies increasingly move into the chip and compute layer and compete with NVIDIA? Or do you think it will be a continuous NVIDIA monopoly, all of them buying from NVIDIA?
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
And everyone tries to migrate into that business. Why is tech policy frustrating 90% of the time?
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
Jan LeCun or Jeff Hinton, which side are you on?
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
What question are you never asked that you should be asked?
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
Listen, Arvind, as I said, I've loved your writing. I can't wait for the book. Thank you so much for putting up with my deviating questions, but I've so enjoyed having you on the show.
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
I have to say, I so enjoyed that show with Arvind. I think it's so cool that a podcast can get you into the same room as professors from incredible universities like Princeton, like Carnegie Mellon. It's so cool. I love doing this episode. Thank you so much again to Arvind for being so great. And I really hope you enjoyed it.
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
As always, I so appreciate all your support and stay tuned for an incredible episode of 20 Growth coming on Friday with Scott Gawlik on the early days of Uber's scaling.
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
I do want to ask, and we'll start with kind of the hardest question of all, but it's the most important, and you've written about this, and I loved your piece.
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
The kind of core question that everyone's asking right now is, does more compute equal an increased level of performance, or have we reached a point where it is misaligned and more compute will not create that significant spike in performance? Kevin Scott at Microsoft says, absolutely, we have a lot more room to run.
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
Why are you skeptical, and have we gotten to a stage of diminishing returns on compute?
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
I'm thrilled to welcome Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science at Princeton and the Director of the Center for Information Technology Policy. This is an incredible discussion that goes very deep on the bottlenecks in AI today, and you can watch it on YouTube by searching for 20VC.
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
MARK BLYTH, Can we just take them one by one there? There was a lot of great things that I just want to unpack. You said there about kind of potentially the shortage of data being the bottleneck to performance.
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
A lot of people say, well, there's a lot of data that we haven't mined yet, which the obvious example that many have suggested is kind of YouTube, which has obviously, I think, 150 billion hours of video. And then secondarily to that, synthetic data, the creation of artificial data that isn't in existence yet. To what extent are those effective pushbacks?
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
What about the creation of new data that doesn't exist yet?
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
While we're on utility value of data, when we look at effectiveness of agents, I've had Alex Wang at Scale.ai on the show, and he said the hardest thing about building effective agents is most of the work that one does in an organization, you don't actually codify down in data. You remember when you were at school and it says, show your thinking or show your work.
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
You don't do that in an organization. You draw on the whiteboard, you map it out, and then you put down what you think in the document. The whiteboard is often not correlated in a data source. To what extent do we have the data of showing your work for models, agents to actually do in a modern enterprise?
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
To what extent do you think enterprises today are willing to let passive AI products into their enterprises to observe, to learn, to test? And is there really that willingness, do you think?
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
You said about smaller models. Help me just understand again. I'm sorry. The show is very successful, Arvind, because I think I asked the questions that everyone asked, but they're too afraid to actually admit they don't know the answers to. Why are we seeing this trend towards smaller models?
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
And why do we think that is the most likely outcome in the model landscape to have a world of many smaller models?
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
Will Moore's law not mean cost goes down dramatically in actually a relatively short three to five year period?
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20VC: AI Scaling Myths: More Compute is not the Answer | The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today: Data, Algorithms and Compute | The Future of Models: Open vs Closed, Small vs Large with Arvind Narayanan, Professor of Computer Science @ Princeton
Where does it become a barrier and where does it not?