Liam Halligan
Appearances
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
You know, outside of the political hurly-burly, you know, the cool, calm market analysts, they're thinking, well, this is going to cause inflation. This is going to stall the American economy. You've now actually got some really respectable people on Wall Street and beyond predicting a U.S. recession. I think in my bones, he's still using tariffs because he wants to influence different outcomes.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
The overwhelming likelihood is that COVID escaped from a lab that was actually funded by Western powers, not least the British, the French, the Americans. You know, we were using a Chinese facility because the research into so-called gain-of-functions isn't allowed in this part of the world.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
So we shipped... But, you know, scientists do understand there's some merit in it because you can use it to find vaccines and other...
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
behavioral traits of viruses though of course that research is dangerous so it was being done in china for that reason so i don't think you know we we can say we can't trust the chinese because that happened because we were funding them frankly um but more i think your broader point is correct um uh francis i do think there's a growing sense that um we need to uh
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
As geopolitics gets more fraught, and it's not just the Chinese thing, of course, it's the Middle East and Russia and the West and so on. You know, the Red Sea is currently blocked to all intents and purposes, one of the major trade routes of the world. A quarter of the world's oil goes through the Straits of Hormuz every day.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
You know, between Oman and Iran, and obviously relations with Iran are very, very fraught. As the geopolitical tensions crank up, I think in general, the dangers with China now really coming into focus as the principal danger for the West, are coming into view.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
I mean, for instance, I think that's one reason why Trump's been more emollient to Russia, because he is really scared about Russia and China getting very close. That's the biggest economic synergy in the world, right? Between the world, what will soon be the world's biggest oil importer, and the world's biggest energy exporter. Massive explosion of trade between Russia and China.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
I mean, when Constantine was living under the Soviet Union, he'll tell you Russia and China were mortal enemies. I mean, when I lived in post-communist Russia, You know, kids were still learning nursery rhymes in the playground that were all about the Chinese are going to come and take us over.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
But now Russia and China have had a sort of 10 year love in, you know, as the Western Russia have fallen out since Georgia, then Medan, Ukraine. Then, of course, the war in Donetsk, 2015 onwards, which we don't talk about. Then, of course, Putin's illegal invasion of Ukraine. Then Russia and China have just got closer and closer.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
And the Russians have been building oil and gas pipelines facing east, right? East Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline, Power of Siberia pipeline, that's an oil pipeline, a gas pipeline. They've got another big pipeline from the Amalka Peninsula in the Arctic. you know, Russian energy fields that only go to Europe at the moment. That's the only place the pipelines go.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
And now they're building a pipeline literally across the Russian landmass all the way to China, a hugely ambitious pipeline precisely to get closer to China. And the White House is watching all this, and Trump is watching all this. He doesn't want Russia and China getting close together, or he wants to help to prise them apart by bringing Russia back at least some way towards the Western orbit.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
And that's not what you hear about what's going on with the, I mean, let's not call it the resolution because I don't think this will be resolved for a long time in any permanent way. But that's what's going on with the, you know, ceasefire or approaches to ceasefire we're seeing. in terms of Russia-Ukraine, literally, as we're recording this interview, is going on in Saudi Arabia, right?
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
But I think that's part of Trump's big game plan when it comes to Russia-Ukraine, is trying to re-isolate China, because Russia and China together, as Kissinger warned us, the triangle of great... America, Russia, China, Kissinger always warned Western thinkers, anyone that would listen, you really don't want to be the one left alone.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
devoid of any type of emotion. He wants the Nobel Peace Prize, right? I mean, can you imagine the Democrats are just going to, you know, they're going to have a fit with their leg up, as my mum would say, if their nemesis Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize. But that's what he wants to do. So he wants to bring some kind of peace.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
He wants a really good deal for, you know, the vast array of American business interests that have been sniffing around Ukraine, you know, Since the Soviet Union collapsed, I know that from spending a lot of time before the Soviet Union back in the day, Ukraine is rich in so many ways, not just minerals, but agricultural ability, tech brilliance.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
Ukraine is an incredibly wealthy country, but unfortunately, and I say this with huge regret because it's a country very close to my heart, it's hopelessly corrupt. A lot more corrupt in my experience than Russia. I mean, some viewers may contest that, but that's certainly... I would contest.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
I think it's a long conversation. But I think for outside business interests, yes. In Ukraine, the corruption is so unorganized, there's no way to navigate it.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
The corruption in lots of other parts of the former Soviet Union is more organized and more rational, and you're not going to put it on a spreadsheet, but you can navigate it with sophisticated players.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
That's sort of how it works. The big picture, Francis, just to finish off this section, is... Trump wants many things out of the relationship, his relationship with the Russia-Ukraine war. Above all, he wants to be seen as the good guy who does the deal and the Chinese not doing the deal.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
Because for many months, it looked as if the Chinese were going to come in and sue for peace in Russia-Ukraine. And the fact that it's the Americans leading the global news bulletins on this is exactly what Trump wants.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
Well, it's the old sage's response to anything that Trump does, isn't it? Take him seriously, but not literally. This is just a bargaining ploy. And I still think there is an element of that. But in order to be taken seriously, if not literally, he has to at least put some tariffs on for a while.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
I don't think there's a lot in there, Francis. There's a whole hour of discussion.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
It's confusing. You look like you two. Yeah, all foreigners look the same. We know that.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
look it's the first thing to say it's a tragedy that we didn't go the mint protocols because the mint protocols would have left um donetsk that eastern part of russia uh that eastern part of what is now you know russian occupied territory uh you know formerly ukrainian territory that would have stayed within ukraine but that area would have had more autonomy and crucially it would have had a a say in any future referendum in ukraine on nato membership
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
They would have had to have a majority as well. The French, the Germans, the Russians, the Ukrainians agreed on Minsk, which would have led to peace. But then suddenly the Ukrainians didn't agree. Historians will speculate about why that was. But I think that would have been the best outcome, retaining the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
Now, of course, as we say, we've had a million dead soldiers and civilians on both sides, of course, the overwhelming majority of the civilians within Ukrainian territory, tragically. It strikes me that given the losses on the Russian side, Russia is not going to give up that territory that it's annexed. So what is a good deal for Ukraine?
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
A good deal for Ukraine is that its existing effective borders, given where the war currently is, they're the ones that are guaranteed. I think that's a good outcome for Ukraine. And some kind of decent revenue sharing on a mineral deal, because Ukraine itself hasn't got the wherewithal and the capital to exploit those minerals. So let's hope...
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
And yet what we're seeing is even though he says, you know, tariffs are the most beautiful work in the dictionary... I love tariffs. His actions suggest that he's actually blowing hot and cold, except, it seems, when it comes to China. And that's my proviso. We'll come on to that. So obviously, he talked about 25% tariffs on both Canada and Mexico in his inauguration speech.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
They get some kind of deal there which doesn't completely squander all that wealth and spirit it away overseas. Some of that wealth actually goes back into Ukrainian infrastructure, nation building and all the rest of it. But it strikes me that. We are now in a situation where we've got this emerging rift between Europe and America.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
And Trump is going to use that to crank up defense spending in America. And indeed, the Europeans are going to use that to crank up defense spending in Europe. in Europe, particularly the European Union. And this really worries me, Constantine.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
It's all very well for politicians and others to beat their chest and say, yeah, we're going to just take defence spending from 1% of GDP, as it is in many big European countries, big EU countries, and we're going to make it 4% or 5% of GDP.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
You know, we had quantitative easing, lots of money printing to stimulate the economy over the last decade, and now we're going to use some kind of Keynesian war machine building, big borrowing and spending to generate economic growth. I really worry about that. And I'm sorry to sound like some kind of, you know, financial nerd here, but this is just how it is.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
When Germany said it was going to take off the debt break, it was going to massively boost its borrowing in order to ramp up defence spending. The yield on German bonds absolutely spiked up. That's what markets charge Germany to borrow. And Germany is easily the most creditworthy nation across the European Union.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
And indeed, it bankrolls much of the rest of the European Union through various dark accounts, something called Target 2, which some of your viewers and listeners will be familiar with, sort of underground plumbing of the European Union. central bank and the way countries within the eurozone help to support one another.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
Can Europe really afford this without causing another sort of financial collapse like we saw in 2010-11, the euro itself coming under threat? And that may sound hyperbole, but I really don't think it is if you look at where financial markets are, because they know
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
If the big European powers borrow and spend and they spend most of that on defence, well, you know, they're basically creating bits of metal that sit in a warehouse, you know, hopefully never to be deployed. That is not a productive use of borrowing.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
It's literally like borrowing money off capital markets when you can't afford to borrow it, when you're already massively indebted and spending it on employing people to dig holes and fill them up again.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
introduced them beginning of february for a few days took them off again now there's a reprieve now it seems if they come back there's the the goods that are involved in the nafta free trade agreement which was renegotiated during the first trump presidency they're going to be excluded maybe car components are going to be excluded
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
Well, one silver lining in the sort of storm clouds of geopolitics that seem to be looming over us these days is that it may lead to some more realism. But in my experience of politics and economics, Realism only really hits when you have a proper crisis, because you can see all the trends clearly that you've just summarised, Constantine. And yet, and I can see them and Francis can see them.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
And, you know, an objective 10 year old can see them.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
cannot see them, because to see them would be to admit that they've been wrong about everything they've said for the last 20 years. And it's offensive to them that even we are listing these issues that you are talking about. So my concern for many, many years has been on the fiscal side, as well as all those other cultural issues that you talk about. I share your concerns on those.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
But I've been particularly focused on the fiscal side. And I do worry. Think about it. When Blair came in in 97, You know, British government debt was, you know, 40, 50 odd percent of GDP. It's now 100 percent of GDP. We're spending in this country, in the UK, where we're all based, of course, we're spending 10 to 15 billion pounds a month servicing our debt. Right.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
We're spending more on debt service a year than we're spending on the whole of education.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
right schools universities higher education further education vocational education think of the morality of that so spending more on servicing our inability of our generation to not be able to spend within our means than we are on equipping the next generation to deal with the debt that we are leaving them and this is radicalizing politics and i was sitting next to
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
You know, in my life, I often end up talking lots to people in the Treasury, people in the Bank of England, real kind of establishment, straight dealing types, people I was at university with, used to be in academia with and so on. And I was sitting with a guy very, very senior in the Treasury. He says, oh, the thing is, Liam, no one wants, you know, the country doesn't want this austerity.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
It's never going to work. Because we were arguing about austerity because I was saying, you know, under George Osborne from 2010 to 2019, under Osborne and Cameron, it was the years of austerity. And during those years of austerity, the national debt... went from, you know, 50% of GDP to 80% of GDP. So where was the austerity?
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
because U.S.-based automakers, you know, they use Canadian-made car components a lot. So it seems to be kind of scattergun. But of course, just because Trump has threatened this and is talking tough on Canada, he's propelled, you know, he's convulsed America's relations with Canada and absolutely revolutionized Canadian politics with a complete...
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
I'm not saying that certain budgets weren't squeezed and certain people didn't suffer, but the state got a lot bigger and we employed, you know, hundreds of thousands of more civil servants.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
He doesn't want Russia and China getting close together, or he wants to help to prise them apart by bringing Russia back at least some way towards the Western orbit. But the rhetoric coming out of China is unlike anything I've ever seen in 20 years. If you mess with China in the way it is, then you could do irreparable damage. You could spark military conflagration. That's my concern.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
It's about being a grown up. Economics is a study of scarce resources and how you allocate them, which is why just if you're a sort of card carrying, you know, economist who can add up, you're called right wing because you're just saying, no, you can't actually do that. Oh, you must be evil then because we can't. No, because we can't actually afford it.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
But if we do this and we do this, we invest this, then we can afford it. So what did this guy say? Yeah, this Treasury guy said, oh, no one wants austerity and it's never going to get through. And I said, well, you say that, my friend. I won't embarrass him by naming him. But, you know, I remember 1976. I remember when the UK went cap in hand to the IMF. It was our economic Suez.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
We were literally bailed out by the Americans. It was the final slipping of the mask that the UK is no longer a world-class economy. Actually, it's bloated. It's got all these useless nationalised industries. It's massively unionised. Very sclerotic
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
place and it was that crisis and the subsequent political crises of 78 79 the winter of discontent um that led to you know a real change and mrs thatcher was brought in you know a wave of popularity to sort it out be a grown-up and people forget after the 2008-9 financial crisis you know the tories were uh kind of re-elected with the Lib Dems in coalition.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
And even the Lib Dems said, yes, we've got to do this. Yes, we've got to be more grown up, and we've got to spend less or increase the rate of spending, decrease the rate of spending in order to stop financial markets blowing the country up. I know people in the Labour Party in Parliament who literally say to me things like, oh, can't we just abolish the debt markets? I mean, it's just insane.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
um outsider coming in as as prime ministers i'm sure we discussed and his party uh rocketing ahead in the opinion polls making up a big deficit china he has introduced tariffs i'm not sure they're going to be removed anytime soon there was already a 10 tariff under joe biden of course And Trump doubled that to 20 percent and made it more wide ranging.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
And he's been threatening in his rhetoric a 60 percent tariff on China. And of course, he's also threatening tariffs on steel imports from the European Union and indeed from the UK.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
A tariff is a tax on imports into your country. And the historic justification for tariffs is that you're protecting your domestic industries, particularly industries that used to be called the infant industry argument when industries were in their early stages. But of course, the US steel industry isn't in its early stages. It's been around for many, many decades.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
pretty soon for people in terms of cheaper energy bills and doing less damage to people who are least able to shoulder that economic damage, then the political consensus behind it is going to be crushed. So take, for instance...
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
Electric vehicles, you know, we have in the UK the most stringent electric vehicle introduction laws in Europe, even more stringent than in the EU, even though we've left the EU. And at the moment now, I talk to lots of people in the car industry or they talk to me because they can't get a hearing with many other journalists, you know, very senior people in the car industry.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
And they are now saying this is going to completely wreck Britain's entire car industry, which employs a million people. And then 500,000 more in related industries, often in parts of the country that don't have many decent jobs.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
The fact that we now have a situation where carmakers in the UK, 22% last year, this year, 28% of the cars they sell must be pure electric vehicles, not hybrids, pure electric vehicles. But guess what? The punters don't want them. The punters don't want them because the charging network is really ropey and really expensive.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
They don't want them because the second-hand market for electric vehicles is awful. They don't want them because in many cases they're unreliable. So carmakers can't actually sell enough vehicles to get to 28%. And under our rules in the UK, insane, they're... charged a fine of £15,000, you know, getting on for US$20,000 per vehicle that is below that 28%. So what are they doing?
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
They're rationing. They're not making petrol and diesel vehicles ahead of the 2035 ban on new petrol and diesel vehicles, which means the new petrol and diesel vehicles... are going up in price, people can't get them, and they're laying off workers. So UK car production, it went down 14% last year.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
So what you're trying to do, you're trying to appeal to domestic voters and domestic interest groups by protecting their market share, by shielding them from more competitive imports that are made elsewhere. If the imports elsewhere weren't better value, they wouldn't be coming in because the transport costs wouldn't be worth it, right?
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
In the first two months of this year, it's gone down another 14% from that much lower base, and the car companies are laying people off. BMW, because of our electric vehicle rules imposed by Ed Miliband, who is completely out of control and needs to be, I think, reined in. I think he's actually dangerous with some of his... policies at the moment.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
BMW are now not building the electric mini at Cowley in Oxford, right? Cowley has been a centre of car manufacturing for over 100 years. This is one of the most sophisticated car plants in Europe. And BMW are probably not going to come back. They're not saying that now, but they're probably not going to come back. And look at the ban on drilling for new oil and gas in the North Sea. Again, insane.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
Because what we're doing instead, Francis, even the Climate Change Committee, which is our kind of in-government think tank that has the legal rights to tell ministers what to do effectively, even the Climate Change Committee says that by... 2030, we're going to still use oil and gas for 50% of our energy. It will actually be much higher. Even by 2050, it will be 25% of our energy.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
It will actually be much higher. So even the most woke, green civil servants say we're still going to need lots of oil and gas, even if we hit net zero by 2050. So why not use our own oil and gas? Because if instead of using North Sea oil and gas, by the way, the North Sea oil complex employs about 300,000 people, many of them unionised, which is why the unions are upset.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
We are importing liquefied natural gas from Qatar and America on ships. That uses five times the carbon emissions because you've got to... pump the gas, right? You've got to liquefy it, which is a very energy-intensive process, stick it on a diesel ship, go 3,000 miles across the Atlantic, regasify it here, which is a very energy-intensive process.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
When we've got oil and gas in the North Sea, to close that down... just for ideological reasons, because Labour wants to appeal to their trendy urban electorates, who are very wealthy, is madness. Because they are not only really, now I think, threatening the energy security of this country, they are also... hammering their traditional blue-collar base that works in these industries.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
And that is why that blue-collar base is increasingly looking for alternative political representation.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
But of course, what tariffs do, and the reason why I'm largely against tariffs in most cases, is that tariffs mean that your domestic consumers, your domestic manufacturers, when they buy imports, inputs from abroad, not least things, basic goods like steel, they pay more for them. So then consumers end up paying more. You generate inflation.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
Reform, what's incredible, and I'll say this on your podcast because it's not said often enough. Again, you know, I'll be accused of being a fascist for just making this observation. But in my experience, the betting markets are much better predictions of what's happening in politics and indeed lots of life. than the polls and certainly the newspaper commentators.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
And for many months now, reform have been favourites on many of the big betting sites to form the next government in this country. That is an astonishing fact, given that this party barely existed just before the election started. in July 2024.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
It is, of course, led by Nigel Farage, who has been on the scene of British politics for well over a decade under UKIP, one of his previous party incarnations. They won the European election in 2014, the first election party to win a national election in the UK that wasn't the Tories or Labour for over 100 years. So he's an incredible economic, he's an incredible political communicator.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
And while a lot of people don't like him, a lot of people, increasing numbers of people really like him and really like his party. But you know what? Because Nigel Farage knows that the key to reform getting into government isn't going to the far reaches of the British electorate on the right.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
That's why we're seeing stock market convulsions in America, because, you know, outside of the political hurly burly, you know, the cool, calm market analysts, they're thinking, well, this is going to cause inflation. This is going to mean that the Federal Reserve can't lower interest rates as quickly as we previously assumed. This is going to stall the American economy.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
What he needs to do is he needs to convince people who were previously conservatives and people who were previously Labour to vote for him. He needs to convince them that he's not racist, that he's not an extremist, that he's not so-called far right, that he's just a grown-up. And that's why he's come to blows with another of the five MPs, a guy called Rupert Lowe, who's not a politician.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
He's a businessman. He used to be one of the owners of Southampton Football Club. He's a very successful businessman. He, like Farage, is MP for a coastal seat in the east of England, Great Yarmouth and Clacton, respectively, both seats with quite a lot of less well-off people with respect to them, quite economically marginalised.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
And let's be clear, Rupert Lowe is to the right of Nigel Farage, particularly on immigration. Rupert Lowe wants to deport lots of people, which is what AFD wants to do in Germany. And Nigel Farage thinks that's a bit strong. That's a bit strong for a mainstream political party in the UK. And that is what the essence of this rift between them is about.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
Oh no, of course, of course it's about ego, but... That is the hill they've decided to fight for. The policy and ego is all tied up in politics, isn't it?
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
I think a lot of people do, but I think mainstream British politics isn't capable of coping with that. Really? Yeah, I do.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
It's all about degrees, isn't it? I think a lot of people, you know, if you've just arrived, then I think it is increasingly becoming a mainstream thing to do what Australia did, which is to have third, you know, third country processing and so on. I think there's quite a lot of support among the silent majority for that.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
But I think the distinction between Nigel Farage and Rupert Lowe is, you know, when. Because under British rules, if you've been here for five years... you're almost certain to get what we call leave to remain. You become normalised. And that's the way we've been coping with the influx of illegal immigration.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
We've just been letting those people sit there and then eventually there's some kind of amnesty in effect and they have their papers normalised, even though they came here illegally. And that's why so many do. That's the model, isn't it?
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
That's why they risk their lives doing this crazy thing of going across the busiest shipping lane in the world, which is subject to all kinds of squalls and weather surges, which is the English Channel, right? It's only 21 miles, but as we've seen, lots of people have died. But Rupert is much, much more adamant. that people should be deported. Even if they've been here like 20 years.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
You've now actually got some really respectable people on Wall Street and beyond predicting a U.S. recession.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
He hasn't put a number on it. It's all about adjectives and degrees and so on. But of course, eventually it's about ego. And everyone knows in politics that if you take on Nigel Farage, he will find a way to beat you. He is the ultimate political street fighter. There are a lot of people in politics and parts of the media that are very loyal to him. I personally think Rupert Lowe is a decent man.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
I think he's conducted himself very, very well. I think he's a very talented orator. I think it's great we're getting, you know, talented business people giving up their time to come into politics. In many ways, I applaud him. But I think he's been a little bit naive, thinking that the way to take on Nigel is to go to the papers and moan about Nigel. That is not the way to take on Nigel Farage.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
And, you know, in the end... Yes, Rupert Lowe's popular on Twitter, or X, as we must now call it, of course. But he doesn't have nearly the following in the country that Farage does. Farage is a national figure because he's been doing this for so long. Rupert Lowe is getting great feedback on X with a couple of hundred thousand followers.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
But if people walk down the street, then with Rupert Lowe, very few people are going to know who he is. Walk down the street with Nigel Farage, as I've done many times. We've been broadcast a lot together on GB News and elsewhere. I've known him for many, many years as a journalist. Walk down the street with Nigel Farage, and you will be mobbed. And years ago, it would have been largely abuse.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
Now... The majority, in my experience, the majority of people that come up to him, they want a selfie with him. They want to shake his hand. Young people. He's got this huge following on TikTok. He's the only mainstream British politician that actually has used TikTok. And so with huge respect to Rupert Lowe, I think he's bitten off more than he can chew.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
Yeah, absolutely, because this is completely, he's not just convulsed politics, he's not just convulsed geopolitics and relations with China, which we must come back to, because for me, this is the really big story here when it comes to tariffs. He's also convulsed the outlook for financial markets everywhere. Because the old adage holds, when America sneezes, the world catches a cold.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
I agree with you. It's pretty edifying. There's a lot of people in the media, a lot of professional political observers. They're pretty disappointed because reform has been going so well. They've been connecting with parts of the electorate they weren't previously connecting with. And now they're having this ridiculous Mexican standoff, right?
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
Having said that, with huge respect, I do think that's a kind of bubble view, which is uncharacteristic on this podcast because you guys are so good at getting out beyond the bubble. 2% or 3% of the country have even heard of Rupert Lowe. That's the reality. That's the reality. Now, I'm not saying that among his supporters he hasn't got at least some of the electricity that Nigel Farage has.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
He has. I've seen it. I've been, you know, as a journalist... Liam, I'm making a different point. As a journalist, I've been to reform rallies, right?
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
Most voters out there For them, reform is Nigel Farage, and they're going to vote for Nigel Farage anyway. Agreed, agreed. However much the Westminster bubble throws at reform for being dysfunctional.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
I think that's the test. I think most voters don't care
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
uh about a rift and obviously if rupert lowe continues to be a thorn in farage's side tries to set up another party or whatever then you know that will be a pain in nigel farage's backside but is the media going to carry on reporting it is it going to become an old story we'll see it's all it's all to play for you know rupert lowe may get a load of money behind him and he may cause a big noise and you may have some massive split and reform
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
US sovereign bond markets, the treasury market, when the US government sells its debt, the interest rate that markets charge it to lend to the American government. Again, that sets a benchmark for sovereign bond markets and government borrowing costs around the world. But just to talk briefly about China.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
And a lot of the political establishment would love that to happen. And they're waving the fans, flaming the fans of that and desperately trying to make it happen. But your fundamental point is absolutely correct, though. They have to professionalize. And that is what I'm seeing they are trying to do to at least some extent.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
They've brought in a young Sri Lankan chairman who's a very successful business leader, Zia Youssef. He's part of this row between Nigel and Rupert, trying to get Rupert out for whatever internecine reason. But as well as doing that, Zia Youssef and his team are... doing a mass screening of candidates. They're going to run candidates in each of the 650 constituencies.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
They're taking premises in a lot of the constituencies, building constituency offices. I'm seeing that in the part of the country where I live, very much a Tory stronghold, where reform are really pointing down deep roots. There are lots of defections at the local level. And I would say, I hold no candle for reform. I've never pinned my colour I've never pinned my colours to any political party.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
It's not really in my nature. But I would suggest that Reform, they're five MPs. Yes, they got five MPs only, but they got 14% of the vote in July 2024 in the general election. The Lib Dems got 71 seats on 11% of the vote. It's a weird voting system. Reform have five MPs now. Maybe they're going to have four if Rupert Lowe leaves.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
But by the time of the next election in 2029, if that's when it is, they'll have 10 or 15 because of defections and because of by-elections. By-elections, when MPs die or resign in between general elections. And in our system, there's a one-off election in one constituency that the whole political class focuses on for a week. So I think they are going to build their support in Parliament.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
I think they're going to go from 10 to 15 MPs. Once they go to six MPs, they get something, what we call short money, which is a Westminster convention. They get money to actually help them be an opposition party. They are screening candidates like crazy.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
I know that Zia and Nigel and deputy leader Richard Tice are absolutely focused on getting a candidates list that is shorn of, quote, the nutters, because so many crazy people are attracted to new political parties. So let's see. I still don't think the political mainstream realises what's happening. They haven't clocked the fact that
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
on the betting markets reform are, they're not odds on, but they're favourites to be formed the next government. That is an incredible thing. And, you know, when we look what's happening across Western Europe, it is an unusual. AFD could easily win the 2029 election in Germany. They just came second, doubling their vote.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
They're being shut out by the SPD, who just got their lowest vote ever, and they're still going to be in government, if indeed possible. Merz of the CDU and the SPD can actually form some kind of coalition. I'm not sure that they will. We'll see. But this is happening across Western Europe. I think the UK is slightly behind and our form of, you know,
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
hard right party, if you like, is always going to be a bit more moderate than that, because I think we are just generally a more moderate country than the French, the Germans, certainly than the Italians and the Spanish and the Greeks. Thank God for that. But I do think reform are coming and they're coming hard. And I think these squalls and these
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
I think I still think in my bones, because this is what Trump did in Trump 1.0, if you like, from from 2016 to 2020. I think in my bones, he's still using tariffs because he wants to influence different outcomes unrelated to trade or at least that the. benefit the domestic US market. So for instance, I do believe he wants help from Canada and Mexico on border controls.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
this internal war is because everyone can see, crikey, we could be in government and the prizes are coming into view. And so the venal politics, and as you say, the egos, the clashes are getting more intense.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
I think we should be talking about what's going on across mainstream Europe. We don't do that enough in the UK. European, mainland European journalists know a lot more on people about British politics than we do about their politics. I think it's absolutely fascinating. I think the German election was absolutely fascinating. I'd like to see, you know, if somebody who voted leave, I, you know, I...
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
remain absolutely fascinated by continental European politics. I think it's really, really important. We're so focused on the US, understandably, because they're kind of our cousins in many ways. But I think the impact of European politics on British politics is just as important these days. And of course, again, despite the fact I voted Leave, I'll always point this out.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
While America is our biggest trading partner, we still trade a lot more with the European Union than we do with America. So I want to see us focusing more on what's going on on mainland Europe.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
And indeed, we've seen the Canadians and the Mexicans jump on that. And indeed, stopping not just illegal immigration across America's huge borders, but also drug smuggling and all the rest of it. We've seen the way he's pushed around the Colombians.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
You know, he likes pushing around the EU on many fronts, not least when it comes to war in Ukraine, not least when it comes to defence spending, but also when it comes to trade. Of course, the EU is a protectionist bloc, right? I mean, let's just be completely clear about that. He wants the EU to drop some trade barriers.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
So maybe he's messing with the EU, threatening tariffs there and indeed on the UK because he wants us to lower our tariff barriers and then he can take away his tariff barriers. So it may be a bargaining ploy. All that is, I think, if not legitimate, there's some kind of rationale and justification for it, if you are the biggest economy in the world.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
But while you can push around the Canadians, the Mexicans, the Europeans, and even the Brits, if you fancy it for a bit, not so much that you don't get to visit the king, because he likes that, you can't push around the Chinese. And he has put tariffs on China, 20% now, with the threat of them going much higher. And already, immediately, China have reciprocated.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
The rhetoric coming out of China, which we're barely focusing attention on, because everyone's wetting their pants so much about Trump. And of course, everyone's rightly focused on Russia, Ukraine, and what's going on in the Middle East. But the rhetoric coming out of China is unlike anything I've ever seen in 20 years and more of watching China. It is literally...
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
If the Americans want some kind of war, a trade war or any other kind of war, the Chinese will fight. So my concern is that while you may be able to play tariff games with the Europeans and the Mexicans and the Canadians, you can't play tariff games with the Chinese because they don't want to lose face. They don't want to be pushed around by the Americans.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
And the Chinese, you know, it's in their... Their swagger now, their economic dominance in so many fields, be it rare earths, be it AIs, in their threatening of Taiwan, which, of course, is the global hub of semiconductor manufacturing, semiconductors being pretty much as important now when it comes to global growth as oil and gas. They are the oil and gas of the digital world.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
And that's before we get to AI. Then their importance rockets even more. The Chinese are sick and tired of everyone assuming always that America is top dog. And my concern is it's all the art of the deal and it's all the Donald doing his thing and causing chaos so he can get his own way.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
But if you mess with China in the way he is, then you could do irreparable damage, not just to global financial markets and global commerce and global trade relations. You could spark military conflagration. That's my concern.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
Let's drill down into that. I'm talking about China wanting to save face to the extent that they move against Taiwan. That's what I'm talking about. And I'm not alone in thinking that. A lot of security services people think that as well.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
I don't think it's, you know, the most likely outcome by any means. I don't think it's even... It's not probable, but I do think it's a danger. It's a lot more of a danger than it was, you know, a couple of weeks ago. And, you know, he can, as I say, he can... bob and weave and bait and switch and bait and switch again with the Western world and his near neighbors.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
But you can't really do that with China. They don't understand that kind of statecraft and they don't want to be seen as someone else's plaything at this point. Under some definitions now, China is the biggest economy in the world. That's the reality. China is obviously at the center of this grouping, which is often derided in the West, but actually is of supreme geopolitical importance.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
The so-called BRIC economies, which of course isn't just Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa anymore. It's got the UAEs in there. A bunch of other major economies are now informal parts of that grouping. Just the original BRIC members, their economy combined is now bigger than the G7 under various definitions. They've got stonking amounts of currency reserves.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
They're much, much less indebted than the Western world. To say all this isn't to be some kind of anti-Western nutter, I'm not anti-Western. I'm English and Irish, Francis. I'm just being a rational analyst, because I don't see too much rational analysis of what's actually happening.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
And I do agree to some extent with the truism so often trotted out at dinner parties that Trump should be taken seriously, but not literally, up to a point. And I think Trump 2.0 is now much, much more belligerent than Trump 1.0. He's much more confident. He feels that he's got the deep state in America under control.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
He feels he's got the Democrats and their kind of lawfare, if you like, trying to remove him. Well, we'll see about that under control. And he knows this is his last chance, his last crack of the whip. So I think his kind of... business wheeling and dealing and gunslinging.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
I think politics needs a bit of that to some extent, a bit less nonsense in politics, a bit more economic literacy in politics, a bit more certainly on the fiscal side being realistic with what Doge is doing and so on. But I think his tariff policies are incredibly dangerous unless they really are false.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
And even if they are false, even if it is a ploy, a wheeze, then the Chinese aren't going to take it like that because they're not going to want to be pushed around.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
I think everyone was opaque when it came to where the virus actually came from, with some honourable exceptions, including myself and one or two other British journalists. We talked to Sir Richard Dearlove, the former head of British intelligence in mid-2020, who said COVID was an engineered virus. escapee, i.e. non-zoonotic, i.e. made in a lab and it escaped by accident.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
The Chinese didn't deliberately release it, of course, because their economy was hammered by COVID too. And that wasn't taken seriously at the time. And it wasn't taken seriously because Trump had also suggested it because He was also talking to people in security services. And now it's the conventional wisdom.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
You know, the Western establishment has all but accepted it in that they don't knock people down who now say it. But when it comes to is that why Trump's doing this against the Chinese? No, he's doing this against the Chinese because the Chinese are, you know. a major economic power that on some definitions is now more powerful than the U.S.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
And of course, there's a massive trade deficit with China. There are more Chinese exporters that need America than American exporters that need China, by the way. And he feels he can get leverage and he feels he can improve the deal more. You know, the sort of MAGA t-shirts now say, you know, you must pay for the privilege of access to the American market. And there's some logic in that.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
You know, it's still the biggest, most valuable market in the world under most headings. Though, of course, many other markets have many more people. Having said that, I think if he pushes China too hard, then he'll find that, you know, the normal rules don't apply. The normal rules that he's used to in the US, in Europe, you have a spat, but then you sort of kiss and make up.
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Will Trump's Strategy Work? - Liam Halligan
You're dealing with a different psyche in China, and you're dealing with a power in China that's been waiting for a long time to assert its dominance. And they may feel that this is the time to do so. And I don't want to test that hypothesis, because if China do feel that, that's going to send... the world into a whole new sphere of geopolitical pain.