Kirk Goldsberry
Appearances
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
Yeah. And I think they reclaimed their own pick, which is great. So they can be there. But yeah, Vucevic has some value on the market. I know teams like Phoenix or Golden State have been looking for shooting bigs. And he matches that description. This guy is one of the best jump shooting bigs. Defensively, he leaves a lot. to be desired. Um, but I think he's, he's a good player.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
Um, and I wouldn't be surprised to see, you know, by the end of this week that he's, he's playing in a different uniform.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
I think his nickname was layup line, if I'm not mistaken, but I might be, I might be mistaken on that.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
Yeah, and it should be symbiotic. These guys should make each other better. De'Aaron Fox's strengths should play into Victor Wembanyama's strengths and vice versa. Yeah. The dude is, you know, lightning. He's one of the faster players with the ball in his hand in the league.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
I think when you have him, you have to. Are they going to want to push and run and go? Is Wemby going to want to do that? I mean, the first pass you look for, Victor Wemby gets a defensive rebound. Now that first pass is okay. Can he get Fox at midcourt on this sort of Bill Walton style outlet pass or, you know, this Kevin Love over? Yeah.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
So I think when you have Randy Moss, you throw the ball deep. And I think when you get this, this is not Chris Paul, right? Like they've been playing with Chris Paul. He's slowing everything down.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
But, you know, so I think they will play fast. And I think, you know, Victor at the five is one of the more, you know, agile five men in the league. So I think they will. You'll see that pace number creep up in San Antonio. You have you have a bunch of young guys now. So I think they will play to his strengths and he should get some easy buckets.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
Crunch time. Yeah, for sure. The shooting has always been his challenge. But if you look at his free throw number, which is what us nerds look at, it's great. He shoots 80% from the free throw line. That should be a 40% three-point shooter. It just hasn't been there. I'd love to see him... as he goes into sort of his late 20s, become a 37, 38, 40% three-point shooter. He hasn't done that yet.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
Right. And that's the thing that could take him over the top and make this a triumph for the Spurs. But he has a lot of potential here. And you're right. It's a laser focus for him.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
Like everybody else, this is hacked. It's embarrassing for Shams. I can't believe that the hacker didn't come up with a realistic trade. If only the hacker had come up with a realistic trade, this would have been a masterpiece.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
Literally, that's my reaction. I think it says it all, that everybody I know legitimately thought this was a hack and now are like digging into David Stern-style conspiracy theories, trying to rationalize it afterwards. So those are the two points. When it happened, this guy got hacked. After it happened, this is a conspiracy theory. What explains this? In reality, shocked.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
I mean, count me among the people, Bill. This is the biggest, craziest NBA trade of my life. This is crazy.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
Okay. Hell no. I talked to people who were involved with this deal. I had no idea. this was possible. And I think you had him fourth in the trade value. Yeah. Generally when anybody's, I would like to do a historical analysis of what's the highest person on that list that's ever been moved.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
What about Kareem out of Milwaukee? Like that reminds me of this too.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
Nobody knew that this dude was on the market, which to me is the legacy of this deal. And it actually helps explain it now, 24 hours later, to me, is that the Dallas Mavericks valued Anthony Davis as much as Luka Doncic. Say what you want about that assessment,
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
But that is the only justification or rationalization that explains how we got here right now, Bill, because they only called one team, which you and Russillo and Mahoney did a great job of calling out that part of this. They really were zeroed in on getting Anthony Davis to their team. And I disagree with that assessment. I think most people around the NBA wildly disagree with the assessment that
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
But that is the only explanation of how we got here today. That Nico Harrison looked at Anthony Davis and says, I want that as much as I want Luka Doncic.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
It's staggering. That remains and will always be the staggering part of this transaction. And I think when the dust settles, that's the biggest question that Nico Harrison's gonna have to answer to for years is, sure, you reach the conclusion internally. Again, I'm not justifying this, but they reached the conclusion internally that we do not wanna pay this person $350 million.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
We don't think his calf is gonna hold up. We don't think his body's gonna hold up. We don't think his nutrition is good. Whatever. They reached the conclusion that they're out. That's part one.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
Or the ownership is involved. And I had one executive experience to me like this. The why is pretty clear. They didn't want to be in the business of Luka Doncic long-term. They think he's more like Joel Embiid than the rest of us. They think that this is a big long-term risk.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
And they don't want that Joel Embiid albatross contract hanging over their cap table for the next, whatever, five, six years. That's... But you reach that point, and I think Ryan did a great job with this too. Okay, now what is the process? The how is the problem. We can disagree with the why, but the how they executed this is the problem. You have a generational trade asset.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
You have to canvas the league. You have to cast a wide net. You have to get two or three parties negotiating against each other to get the best deal. You're trading Herschel Walker, dude. You got to get the dynasty coming back to Dallas. You got to get all those offensive line, all those Vikings picks for those of us of a certain age. And they didn't do that, dude.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
That's going to be the thing he has to answer to for the next few years.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
Yeah. And there's a week long process. One of my sources inside the Lakers was indicating that the deal was bigger. And I think you guys were literally joking about this last night that there were two firsts and there was Dalton connect and the deal got whittled down because I think Rob Palenka was able to convince the Dallas Mavericks that Luca is a lot of risk.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
You guys are right for trying to look at this this way because this guy, oh, he's drinking or whatever, his weight problem, whatever it is. So they were able to convince it. This is a weeks long process. That's another thing that came out today is this wasn't, this was a, and Dallas started. Almost three and a half weeks. Dallas started it, dude. This is, this fell in Rob Palenka's lap.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
And then he was able to reduce the outward Lakers assets to such... Dude, Mikael Bridges commanded five first-round picks.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
The other thing is they think this team is going to win. They think that the Kyrie, Clay Thompson, Anthony Davis trio is a big three. They think that. They can't think that. They think they're going to win. Otherwise, they wouldn't have done it. But I think the only way, again, that you can explain why they would only call the Lakers is they wanted Anthony Davis.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
They started off this process, hey, we think we can get Anthony Davis. And Nico has this pre-existing relationship with Anthony Davis. And Jason Kidd has this pre-existing relationship with Anthony Davis in the Lakers. And Again, I don't agree with these things, but I, like everybody, spent the whole day trying to understand how this could have gone and how they only called one organization.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
Yeah. Stephen Curry hasn't made first team all NBA as much as Luca has.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
Yeah, I think the idea that this traveled in silence the whole time. It's absurd. It's a lot. It's absurd.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
That's right. That's what I learned today, too, is that this was a month long process. And the idea that that this was as quiet as it is hard to believe, particularly the way that Clutch and LeBron have inserted themselves into Lakers basketball operations. And I agree with you that the idea that that Anthony was so quick to waive that thing is.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
Yeah, that's a great point. It's also a big compliment, I think, when he all said this last night, that he is the piece for Luka Doncic, and I think that's almost flattering to a point.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
And there's some intel that Anthony was not in love with playing in Los Angeles the way they were playing basketball. I think it all comes together, that he might not have been as satisfied there as he was letting on.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
Ever tried red wine instead of these Czech pilsners that you've been crushing over the last 10 years? Right.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
What if he's in better shape? What happens then? Well, dude, and he is, and I think a lot of us feel this way. This is, they poke the bear and that's not a fat guy. Yeah.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
Now we have a huge FU potential bill. Huge. This guy, he talks like when I first got into Luca, uh, when he would run his mouth against dudes like Pat Beverly and stuff, and he was a kid and he would just give it right back. And sometimes more than he was getting. Uh, and I was like, this guy is a competitor. Uh, and now I, yeah, you guys did say this yesterday, but it's true.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
They poured a bunch of gas on this dude's fire. And, uh, If he's able to channel it the way that I think and a lot of Mavs fans think right now, look out, dude, because you're right. He can come in in like LeBron 2012 mode, you know, after that Mavs series and just be like, all right, I'm here and I'm mad. And I can't wait for February 25th to play the Dallas Mavericks in Dallas.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
They're in a different regime. I think they're officially now built in try-to-win mode, which is sort of a big paradigm shift for the San Antonio Spurs that have been in rebuild mode, but now they're in try-to-win mode. I think this is the symbolic threshold of a team that's ready to compete.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
No, it's totally true. Like so many fans, like when Mbappe goes from PSG to Real Madrid, they're just like, I'm going to Real Madrid. I'm a Real Madrid fan now, I guess. This is a generational talent who is going to bring fans like Jason Gallagher's son with him. That's not going to be a unique story. Poor Gallagher. Poor Gallagher. Sorry.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
But yeah, dude, I went to the Mav subreddit today and it was like Sons of Sam Horn in October 2003. Yeah. It was so bad, dude.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
And I'm in Texas right now. One more layer to that one is like gambling in Texas may or may not happen, right?
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
So yeah, like this family made, for those who don't know, this family made its money in Vegas. Like they're a casino family. Yeah, so- That's a good one. There's definitely some other ones about just trying to get ratings up and the Lakers back. But yeah, there's a lot of conspiracy bill stuff. How do we help the Lakers?
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
Because I didn't have to, was the short answer. They gave up some draft capital, obviously, I think, Those are some nice picks they gave up. But I expected maybe to see Devin Vassell's name, maybe see Jeremy Sohan's name. I think, yeah, you're right. The headline is that none of those guys, as we have right now, are included in this deal.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
And they got, yeah, and you guys did a little of this yesterday, but they got Shaq and they got Pau Gasol exactly when they needed them. And like, yeah, what we said in San Antonio is like, there's three ways to build an NBA team, the trade, free agency, and draft. And the Lakers really have access to all three of those levers in a way that no other team does, specifically trades and free agency.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
And this is just another example of that. And the Spurs or the Grizzlies or the Thunder will never get a trade for somebody like Luka Doncic or a free agency play like that. So they do start on third base. That's exactly right. And this is the updated version of them getting Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 50 years ago. It's just wild. But it is kind of cool in that sense as an NBA historian.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
It falls in line with this, but as Celtics fans, not exactly thrilled with that historic parallel, I guess.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
Yeah, and pick any other NBA team and say, who's the best player your team's ever traded for? Right.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
The Bucs or even the Sixers or the Magic. These kinds of players don't just show up on your doorstep.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
The defense is that Luka Doncic is the next Joel Embiid. He is a person whose body isn't going to hold up to these crazy pace and space games that happen 82 times a year, plus playoffs. Like Luka played 100 games last year. He's repeatedly strained his calf. We think there's an Achilles tear risk here. We think there's a weight.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
We think the lower body is going to go or the back's going to go and we're going to be on the hook for that Joel Embiid equivalent. And we don't want to do it. And this is the last trade deadline opportunity we have to turn him into something. I don't take that stance, but that's the case. And I think that's what they saw. Moreover, I thought specifically they wanted Anthony Davis. And I think
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
they think they're a better team with Anthony Davis than with Luka Doncic. That's the only case.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
It's yeah, we'll see. I mean, I will leave a sliver, a sliver of hope for the Mavs fans that they could be hoisting up Larry O'Brien in the next year or two. I don't think that's going to happen.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
Fuck you! It's almost like Ohio State football. They won the national title and they're still pissed off that they lost that Michigan game. We won, but we're still mad. They could literally boo the parade. I don't see it. I think they really believe that Anthony Davis. And I think this is Nico Harrison believing that Anthony Davis can anchor a top defense in the NBA.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
And that with Kyrie and clay and their role players, uh, that they can, they can compete for a title. That's the defense.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
Yeah. Jimmy Butler. Is he from Dallas or Houston? Where's that from?
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
Yeah, Austin Reeves is expendable now. I mean, why do you need Austin Reeves if you have Luka Doncic?
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
Claxton and Time Lord are the names that keep coming up. And I would guess that one of them will be on the Lakers. I would guess that, um, They need a five. Obviously, they need a five. They don't have it.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
Yeah, I'm a professor at the University of Texas and Jackson is one of our guys. So I'm a big Jackson Hayes guy. But no, I want a five, man. And my question for you, Bill, is like, do you believe that this Lakers team thinks they're going to compete for a title now this year in the next five months?
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
That's where I'm at. But it hinges on that rim protector because right now they're just not built for a playoff run without rebounding and rim protection.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
Yeah, and every call I'm sure you had today that I had today is like, oh yeah, they might trade LeBron to Golden State too, which I don't think will happen, but came up so many times today that we have to address it. It came up last night too.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
Like, what are we doing? Yeah. And there's still the buyout market too. And these guys just became the biggest magnet. And that market is always irregular and unreliable. Don't get me started. But every once in a while, there is a valuable piece on the buyout market and they will get really attractive potential buyout pieces looking at their their team. So I think they have two moves left.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
You know, this is a big four day period for the Lakers front office. They're going to look at sending out that pick. They're going to look at sending out Austin Reeves, maybe even Rui Hashimura to try to turn it into something that at the five especially, but around these two generational playmakers, two generational playmakers, and two guys who don't shrink in the playoffs. Yeah.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
So I think they are going to try to go, but I think they're going to do a little bit cautious. I'd be surprised if the pick went. I'll say that. I think they're going to try to do it with personnel.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
I love it. But again, they don't have a North Star. The Sacramento Kings have been like this my whole life. I don't know what they're trying to do. Now they've reunited the great DeRozan-Levine duo.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
Who's he going to be dating? TMZ is getting ready. But yeah, in all seriousness, that 77 jersey in purple and gold, how long till we start seeing the tweets that the number one selling jersey in the NBA, it's already done. Again, this is a team that just finds money. And this is just an updated version of that.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
Yeah, because it felt like they were heading towards an era where they were going to have a 34-year-old Anthony Davis as their focal point. Just breaking down. Yeah.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
And now they're going to have a 27-year-old Luka Doncic as their focal point. just angry at the world. And hopefully, you know, they are able to extend him. And I do want to say that. And one of the sort of main points here is like, there's no guarantee he's going to sign that extension in Los Angeles. What if Miami is like batting their eyelashes at him?
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
What if San Antonio, like what if Oklahoma city, like there, there are, there are teams that are going to let him know that they really want him to play there. Oh, come on.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
So I think that's something I haven't heard talked about enough is there is a chance that he will not want to be there. I think it's a small chance. I think he's now at the New York Yankees and he is sort of that A-Rod character who's going to settle into that sort of prestigious role.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
All right, let me ask the sports guy this. I think he stays. Let me ask you this. How far do the Lakers go this year?
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
And, dude, I think his odometer benefits from this. I think off-ball LeBron, he lasts a little bit longer. He's a little more durable than on-ball LeBron. And I think just him setting screens is a crazy concept. Right, them running pick and rolls, right? Yeah, he's the new Karl Malone. He just becomes Karl Malone for them.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
Yeah, for me, the story here is in San Antonio, Bill. The Spurs have a sort of a stopgap point guard in Chris Paul who's been great. Harrison Barnes has been great. But this is a player in Fox that is a young... great offensive weapon that I think will pair very well with Victor Wambanyama.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
Yeah, I mean, Oklahoma City gets my respect. They deserve it. Me too. Beyond that, Houston, who I adore, Memphis, I love. I just think they're both too young, really. And if you're telling me I have Luka and LeBron against either of those two teams, there's a case for those Lakers to just get them with wisdom.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
By the way, we put it on wax. Your season tickets for the Clippers, we put it on wax like three weeks ago that we was like, let's not forget the Los Angeles Clippers. Then Kawhi comes back and they've looked like the best team in the NBA at times.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
Oh, yeah, that's right. They lost to Toronto. But, yeah, like over the last two months, or I should say January, just look it up. Like their indicators scream, we're good. And their defense has been good all year.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
I think the Nets have a for sale sign up in the front yard. I think both Claxton and Cam Johnson are on the move, if I had to guess.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
Jeremy Grant, I think, is one to watch in Portland. If Portland can find a taker for Jeremy Grant.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
This is a team that I think was going to have a very high defensive ceiling just because of Victor for years to come. But the offense was the question mark. This helps them address that. And now I think it's like we have Victor at the five. We have Fox at the one. Let's let's surround two, three and four with defense and shooting. I think there's a clear team building there.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
I'm sure there's more. Another classic Bill Simmons trope that was relevant this crazy weekend is new owner syndrome, which, by the way, when the Bucs changed owners, that's when this Lillard thing happened and the Drew Holiday thing. Yeah. This is like the owners remain the most underrated characters in pro sports sagas. And this is another example. Would Mark Cuban have done this deal?
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
I remember one of the, we, we did a Gremlin feature with Mark in 2013 or 14 on, you know, at that time he was like symbolic of this new era of bad boy tech owner guy. Yeah. And we talked about how the Mavs were a laughingstock before him, you know, and no, no disrespect to Mark McGuire or Orlando Blockman, but yeah, They were never a great franchise.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
And then he gets him to the finals two or three times. And it sure looks like this new ownership group is, is taking things in a different direction. So yeah, he's gotta be just so destroyed.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
project in front of them that they are thrilled to have. It's a pretty simple problem now as opposed to a bigger problem.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
Yeah, I couldn't agree more. I mean, obviously, we had a big piece on Victor on the ringer last week. I went all in on this guy. And then he had a great game in Paris right after, so I felt good. But everybody around the league is seeing the same thing that we are, Bill. De'Aaron Fox among them. This is a superstar. In the ringer 100, he's gone from number 67 to number six in less than two years.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
You had him as the number one trade value asset in the league. Do you agree with that? Of course. I mean, he's 21. He's a 25-point-a-game scorer, and he's the best defender in the league. And this is the worst Victor will ever see is his famous quote about himself.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
There was a sequence in Paris at the end of the third quarter that I'd ask everybody to go watch the first Pacers game in Paris where Victor blocked four shots in a row. One was a goaltend, and then he made a three, threw a lob, and caught a lob on the other end of the court. And that was just like, all right, that's crazy. That's what De'Aaron Fox is seeing. That's what everybody else is seeing.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
This dude is only getting better. And I think the Spurs are really excited today to have another piece in place, another all-star level piece for the future to build an offense, specifically, Bill, around a guy who... And I think this is your term, looks like a giraffe on ice a little bit sometimes on offense. De'Aaron Fox is going to take care of some of that and they can grow together.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
And is there a better, just a lob game than Fox and Wemby? I love it.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
Well, yeah, and I wrote this in the Wemby piece, but there's like two guys under, you know, 26 in the ringer top 100s, top 10 rankings. Victor Wembanyama is by far the youngest, and the other one is Luka Doncic, who is about to be 26, right? So, I mean, Wemby has, he's going to be Doncic's age in 2029, I wrote, which is just crazy. Just think about how much time he has to get better, right?
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
And look, yeah, he is there. He's going to be this great player. I don't want to sort of belabor the point, but this is a deal that the Spurs, they don't make a lot of trades. They don't do this kind of thing. Historically, So this is a big deal for them. And I'm sure they're, they're pretty happy with it. They didn't, like I said, I think the other headline is they didn't give up castle.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
They didn't give up the cell that didn't give up. So Han, uh, and they still have Atlanta's pick this year, which is, is looking really good.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
Maybe even better than that. I would have wanted that one. Atlanta is cratering right now, unsurprisingly, without Jalen. So, yeah, I think they're in really good shape. And, you know, nobody's truly surprised by that. But this is the kind of move that a pop organization hadn't typically made.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
This is a team that builds through the draft, through savvy free agency signings, doesn't usually go after a big trade piece like this. So it's a big deal for the San Antonio Spurs.
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
It feels like the same old thing to me, Bill. The West has been brutal since we've been covering basketball together. You're looking at teams like Memphis, Houston, Oklahoma City, San Antonio for the foreseeable future, not to mention the LA Lakers. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Not, it's just, okay. What are you trying to do to get past teams like that?
Renewing Your Mind
Paul versus Peter
Um, so it's not a slight against the Kings, but it is, do you really think this is going to beat the Grizzlies or the Rockets or the Thunder? I don't see that, uh, with a team built around DeMar DeRozan, uh, Zach Levine. Um, And it was a cool story when they were, because we've already seen it. Um, that's right.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
OKC’s Revenge, NBA Cup Nitpicks, and NFL Season Fun Grades with David Jacoby, Kirk Goldsberry, Kyle Brandt, and Craig Horlbeck
You know, I think P.J. Washington is a huge part of that equation. And I don't know if that's the correct answer, but it's not going to be Kyrie and it's not going to be Luka. I think we all know that. And then they have the big. And, you know, I think P.J. would be my answer. But, dude, who can guard this guy? Nobody can guard this guy. So, Dallas...
The Bill Simmons Podcast
OKC’s Revenge, NBA Cup Nitpicks, and NFL Season Fun Grades with David Jacoby, Kirk Goldsberry, Kyle Brandt, and Craig Horlbeck
I think beat them last year on both sides of the ball. And I think that it was really PJ who, if you look back at the stats from that series, did a lot on both sides.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
OKC’s Revenge, NBA Cup Nitpicks, and NFL Season Fun Grades with David Jacoby, Kirk Goldsberry, Kyle Brandt, and Craig Horlbeck
Yeah. So I think I can't talk myself into what I saw from Dallas beating Oklahoma City, but I have very, very, very big recency bias right now because of what we just watched.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
OKC’s Revenge, NBA Cup Nitpicks, and NFL Season Fun Grades with David Jacoby, Kirk Goldsberry, Kyle Brandt, and Craig Horlbeck
I think if I zoomed back out, seven-game series, yeah, if PJ is going to be 20-10, kind of like he was, I think it was 18-8 in that series, and shooting threes and playing great defense, and they have their bigs, and Luka and Kyrie, obviously, at the end of games, they could win four games against that team if they broke their way.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
OKC’s Revenge, NBA Cup Nitpicks, and NFL Season Fun Grades with David Jacoby, Kirk Goldsberry, Kyle Brandt, and Craig Horlbeck
Yeah, I think they've been sort of showcasing players all year. I think it helps explain why Steve Kerr's been playing 12 players a night. Oh, look at all these guys. Like, you could read into it. And I think they're one player short of being.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
OKC’s Revenge, NBA Cup Nitpicks, and NFL Season Fun Grades with David Jacoby, Kirk Goldsberry, Kyle Brandt, and Craig Horlbeck
Yeah, farm-raised Kyle Anderson over here. But I think then, but Jimmy Butler to Houston intrigues me too, because of something you said earlier, Bill, which is like, who's their guy at the end of the game? We don't have that guy. And Jimmy's from Texas. You could see E-May talking himself into Jimmy Butler. I'm not sold on it.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
OKC’s Revenge, NBA Cup Nitpicks, and NFL Season Fun Grades with David Jacoby, Kirk Goldsberry, Kyle Brandt, and Craig Horlbeck
The other thing that I would say is the trade machine Picasso is coming into hard times. This new CBA is pretty much, could make a trade into half, if not more, because so many teams are limited into what kinds of trades, the financial rules, what they can and can't send out or take back are so punitive or prohibitive that just the trade market itself has shrunk.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
OKC’s Revenge, NBA Cup Nitpicks, and NFL Season Fun Grades with David Jacoby, Kirk Goldsberry, Kyle Brandt, and Craig Horlbeck
And I think that's going to sort of limit the amount of Picasso-ing you can do between December 15th and February.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
OKC’s Revenge, NBA Cup Nitpicks, and NFL Season Fun Grades with David Jacoby, Kirk Goldsberry, Kyle Brandt, and Craig Horlbeck
The whole trade demand thing. ecosystem, the whole science of the trade demand from the player's perspective has to get updated too because you can't just say, oh, I want to trade and make sure it's the Phoenix or whatever.
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I think so, and I think there's one more layer of it, which is the Moneyball era of pro basketball is so intense. We know so much about how bad bad contracts are, particularly in this new CBA, that those were the contracts the teams used to be able, hey, take this guy. Maybe you can deal with the contract for a year or two and win a title.
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No, like I was trying to think of who the best team with a terrible contract is, and there aren't many. And so it's like, okay, do you want this Levine deal or this Beal deal? The answer to that question is smaller than ever, not to mention the point we already made. The rules to get that player in a trade are more sort of strict than ever.
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So yeah, I think we're in a brand new era and it is bad for podcast content.
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I think it's working, but I think those are valid points. In fact, I talked to one Western Conference executive who's like, oh, I'm kind of glad we don't have to go play at Oklahoma City tonight and maybe play Houston and Vegas. And I think I'd much rather have the time off or these lesser opponents. I think the league has something.
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I also think it's really cool that we had these two games tonight and the whole league was watching them. And I wish we had more of that, that sort of community feeling. where it's not just like league pass overload, where these games are meaningful in December. Let's not forget, this time of year is really hard.
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I do think, and I think we talked about this last time, they should use the divisions for the groups and just bring some spice and meaning back to those teams. groupings of teams. I think there's some little stuff. I'm glad we have it. But I think it is fair to say that some teams are kind of not disappointed they're not going to Vegas this weekend.
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Yeah, like the Elam ending. Wait, one more thing on that. The Elam ending would be great. And I know they got rid of it from the All-Star Game, Bill. But like tonight, the end of that first game was like 25 minutes. The last two or three minutes. And it bled into the second game. It's like, what are we doing? Doing this free throw, free throw thing.
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I mean, every pickup game we've ever played ends with a bucket, dude. And then we watch these free throw contests. The worst one I saw this year was Celtics-Cavs, and it was like 30 minutes. And it was back and forth, back and forth. And now, because I always say this, the team that's ahead is now fouling a lot of times. So it's just adding to it.
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Yeah, so I'm a big Elam ending guy, but I like Jacoby's idea. Make it feel special. Do something else. Elam ending is the best I got for that one.
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I think they're 11-3 in their last 14 games after starting 2-8. And what you just said, one of the sort of deep cut takes is like, yeah, AJ Green, Gary Trent, Torian Prince, Bobby Portis. They're getting really efficient three-point shooting from those dudes. And then Giannis stopped shooting threes. He stopped shooting threes. Today, he shot his first three in six games, I think.
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He shot another one at the end of the game, but he'd gone five games without shooting a three. He's attacking the rim, and then they're surrounding him with shooting. Tonight, they played a smaller lineup. They took Brooke out, and they put these aforementioned shooters. Chris Middleton's back in the lineups. Damian, obviously. spacing starts at the rim.
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Giannis pressures the rim better than anybody in the league right now. And he can make passes. If they can make those shots, they're very good. The Bucks were always supposed to be this good. The other thing weird was they were two and eight. Uh, do I trust them to be better than the Boston Celtics?
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No, but it looks like they've righted the ship and look like they're a viable Eastern conference contender now. Um, because Giannis is putting up scoring title numbers and they're getting this three-point shooting from the supporting cast and now they're whole. So they have Chris, Damian, and Giannis. They were supposed to be good.
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No, I was just saying, when they won it all, they were great on defense. This was a defensive juggernaut, too, with Brooke and Giannis protecting the paint, and then Drew and Chris. And the role players all seeming like, you know, these younger Thunder Rockets teams that we're seeing the more like, yeah, they were a great defense. I don't see that happening.
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And for that reason, I'm out to quote Mark Cuban on their ability to compete with Boston and maybe even Cleveland at the very top of the Eastern Conference.
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Yeah, they're the clear favorite now. And I know Dallas is going to sit here and say, oh, we didn't have P.J. Washington and we beat him last year and this. And fine, they should be confident. But from what I'm seeing, Bill, their net rating, their defensive rating, like Jacoby just said, and then the eye test, Oh, my God. Yeah, Luka threw a lob.
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Yeah, so Rudy should be thrilled, man. I was talking to Vince Carter and Jalen. We were watching this game, and we're like, holy crap. a score on and like Oklahoma City they're a pain in the ass to pass on and get rebounds on I love the two big lineup I love that it's Mo and Goga and Wendell like they're playing bigger than almost any De Silva too when he's at the three they're just big
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And yeah, the biggest point here is they didn't have three or four of their normal rotation pieces. Gary Harris, Jonathan Isaac, but obviously... Gary Harris. Bill's favorite guy. Paolo and Franz, who, you know, torn oblique club, like stand up. And as a holder of Suggs coin for years now, You guys should be thrilled.
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I know you didn't get the result tonight, but it looks like you're built for war for a long time, and you're the Orlando Magic. You guys should be thrilled.
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He said their defense is hard. But I think those corner threes come from good movement elsewhere. Corner threes are created when their best offensive players are doing other shit somewhere else on the court. Those guys aren't playing, particularly their best offensive player. And now Franz isn't playing, who's also great at offense. So those are like indicator species.
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I think it was to Lively near the end of the game that he's thrown 100 times. And all of a sudden, there was two Thunder guys, and they were playing small, and they intercepted it. I think they had 12 steals, 31 points off turnovers. But more importantly, they just frustrate the hell out of everybody.
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Yes, their three-point shooting personnel, Jacoby, does lack. KCP is underwhelming. But some of these are sort of byproducts of the offense itself just not having its alpha and beta creators.
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Dude, yeah, he is incredible. I didn't know that Tom Thibodeau was an offensive genius until this year.
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And I feel like they're so far and away better than anything else I'm seeing in the West through the first quarter of the season that, yeah, I'm going to say they're the favorite to come out of the Western Conference.
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Yeah, I just learned that. 25 and 13, though, I think I would have put him around there. The 45, 46% number from three-point is crazy, dude.
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They're going to get Precious, and they're going to get Mitch Robinson back. And I don't think we've seen what their defense really could be. But I'm with Cerruti. I definitely go Celtics, Cavs, Knicks. Then I go Bucs. But I do think the Knicks offense deserves respect. They can score against anybody in a variety of ways. It's just like their shooting is great, and then Brunson and Catt.
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I do love the geometry, to borrow Jalen's basketball geometry phrase. I love what the Knicks have spacing the court right now.
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Yeah.
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Unbelievable draft.
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Yeah, that's a perfect word. It really is just like a black cloud or a stranglehold. I'd actually compare it to Tim. A lot of people forget that Tim Duncan had a really bad knee his entire career. Yeah. And The scourge that is known as load management has a lot to do with Tim Duncan's knee and Greg Popovich and the staff really making sure that they could get everything.
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But that also meant that Tim had to be very serious about his nutrition and his sleep and all this other stuff. And I think as Joel mentioned, enters sort of the later stage of his career, if he wants to keep playing at this level, he has to be more serious, more professional, not just about being on time to the bus, but taking care of his body.
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Like the reason LeBron is LeBron at this age is because he was really careful about his body and respected that stuff. And unfortunately, this is what it looks like when somebody doesn't do that kind of thing, in my opinion. And I'm not quite sure where this is going. I do think Philadelphia has reasons to be more optimistic than the last time we talked about these guys on the podcast.
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I still think the East, what we just went through, is like, oh, maybe Miami's the five seed. Unfortunately, there needs to be eight playoff teams in the Eastern Conference. And I think Philadelphia will get one of those slots. And so I think they could be pretty patient here. I just agree with what you guys are saying.
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This is really troubling, like the lack of communication, the lack of clarity, the weird Timmy Bontemps quotes from this week. It's depressing. I don't even know it's injured. It's just inflammation. These are bad signs, guys.
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No, that is a very debilitating contract. And we talked about this earlier. It's like, you don't see a lot of good teams with this new cap bill with any bad contracts, let alone a max contract with a guy who's not playing.
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It's like, how do you build a team when you have that much sort of money locked up in a player that may or may not even be able to play most nights?
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Yes.
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I'm going to come back to you on Edie, because I need to know how the surf has been over at Edie Island, if the seawalls are holding up. But I want to know, yes, Castle is the answer for me, and it's not close, and I'm obviously close to the Spurs. They are very excited about all the stuff he does. I love the description of a Thunder-like player.
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He is that kind of dog in him stereotype, but he does the stuff that doesn't show up in the box score. They love this guy. He's adding sort of an edge to their group. I think Jeremy Sohan is kind of like that too. And I think it could help them They're destined to build a great defense in San Antonio, and I think he could be part of that.
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Like Lou Dort, another potentially great defender, he needed to get a shot, and Lewis figured that out, so I feel like Castle could get a little of that. Dalton connect obviously needs to be mentioned. I know he's older, but I think he's been fantastic given where they got him in the draft. I'm still on research day Island. I'm not giving up on that anytime soon.
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But for me, I'll say Reed Shepard, I think is going to be great in this league for a long time, but I'm going castle has really won me over in the last few weeks specifically. But tell me bill, Zach Eadie, was he everything you dreamed of, or are you a little bit let down at this point in the season?
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Well, this one's for Chris Vernon. The Memphis Grizzlies. I've been very disappointed. I'm just kidding. He passed word and he didn't hear it. Yeah, that's right. That's right. I would say... The Minnesota Timberwolves, because I thought the Randall trade was good. Dante DiVincenzo, too. It hasn't worked. It has not worked.
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They went from having a very strong identity with great defense and good offense to not really having an identity and looking like a middle-of-the-pack team in the Western Conference when most of us thought they were going up a level. not down a level in this exact season, Bill. So for me, I think the Pacers have a very strong claim to this conference finalists.
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But I will say Minnesota because I really want Anthony Edwards to be the face of American superstars in the next five, 10 years. I love everything about him. So I've been particularly disappointed with that team's performance after what they did last year.
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Yeah, it goes back to our theme earlier. It's like, there's not a lot of old and overpaid great teams in the NBA right now. And they're best players older, as you pointed out. Devin Booker's certainly not old. I'm not mad at his contract. The Beal deal, to me, sticks out like a sore thumb on their cap sheet. Nurk, like... you have to have pretty much a perfect roster.
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And I kind of agree with you. Doesn't everybody have at least one superstar that we're talking about winning at all? Yeah, pretty much. I think that is fair. And to me, the differentiating stuff is now lower down on your depth chart. And that's where this team is just really not great. And I don't think they'll ever be able to play defense well enough to keep up with the top teams in the West.
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But I keep going back to that Bradley Beal Because that was a lot of depth they traded, essentially, for one other player that might have sort of a repetitive role next to Devin and Kevin.
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Houston, I think... Golden State here in this quarterfinal. I don't see anybody else because Minnesota, I think coming in to the season, Bill, was that other team for me. And they have just been off to an awkward start. So I don't see the Randall piece really fitting in there to put them in that category. And Dallas was the hottest team in the league, period, before tonight.
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And I think they clearly deserve number two status. They won't. won the conference. They beat this team in the playoffs last year in six games. So I think until further notice, it's OKC, Dallas, then Houston.
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I love Houston at three, and I want to see what they do in this tournament. I know some people think it's silly, but I think this is a catapult for them. If they beat Steph and Steve Kerr tomorrow, and they get to Vegas, and they play the Oklahoma City Thunder, I think it really starts to feel like they're not just a flash in the pan. Like OKC, Bill, their defensive indicators scream contender.
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They are not... Just like Orlando. Orlando, OKC, and Houston. Three young, pain-in-the-ass defenses that nobody wants to play against. And Ime has really built that team up. So I would put them at three. I don't know if there's somebody I'm forgetting.
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That might be intentional. I might have heard that he fast forwards the minutes that I speak on this show.
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Yeah, I think that's valid. And I think that we went too long not talking about what we saw from SGA tonight. And I think he really is the differentiator in the top of the West because he is legitimately the MVP candidate over there right now. When you look at those three teams we talked about, you throw in Memphis, maybe John Morant, but SGA is on a different plane.
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And what we saw tonight from him on both sides of the court, nearly scoring 40 points and then just putting up crooked numbers. Made some threes.
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5-9 from three, and then just sets the tone on defense, too. Like, he is a truly, truly impressive two-way superstar, Bill Simmons. And I think No other team has that. And if it does get to sort of crunch time at the end, you know that the guy who has the ball in his hands can score in an isolation situation. By the way, he's isolating more than anybody else in the league.
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And Houston doesn't have that. That is fair to say. And I think that is one of the things that separates the Oklahoma City Thunder from everybody else in the West right now is that their best player can be that guy at the end of a big game like we saw tonight.
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Who do you have in the MVP ladder right now? Just between those two.
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I agree, but does it matter to you that OKC is emerging as a clear number one and they're sort of dropping down to maybe play-in status? Does that factor into the Professor Simmons model?
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Exactly.
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I think in a nutshell, the hottest teams out West, not counting the Thunder, have been hot all year are the six and seven right now in the Warriors and Timberwolves. And that just that just sets us up for a great, great first round. Not to mention the talent over there, the superstar talent, the all star talent fighting for these slots is just off the charts.
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Yeah, they lost that game in Brooklyn the other night. And I think that's a fair indication of the kind of game they can lose. Yeah. You know, and again, the West is just jam packed. I think two to five is separated by a game or something like that. So you start losing at Brooklyn. You're going to drop. The Rockets, as you mentioned, are hot. They've won four straight.
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They're going to win those kinds of games. So it is, I think it is fair to expect the Lakers are going to drop.
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It's terrifying. You got Kawhi Leonard, Ty Lue on the other end. You got one game. I love the planned tournament because it makes these sets up for real meaningful games. And, you know, I think the executives and the coaches of these teams much prefer the sixth slot to the seventh slot just because of the uncertainty, the stress.
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You're locked in. Yeah. And you get another couple of days to game plan your three-seat opponent in a playoff matchup. And that's a huge deal, too.
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I like how they have it because if you finish seventh, I think you've got to get beat twice at home to get kicked out of. I like the format. I think the 7-8 format is cool. You know, win one and it gives you this advantage to get in. What are your thoughts on that?
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Yeah, Bulls, Heat.
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You just hope that the Orlando Magic, because the Magic and the Hawks, they could be decent playoff teams if they awaken from these pretty dark stretches.
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Apparently longer than two months.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
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I think the Cavs and Celtics deserve to have a pretty easy first round series. Oh man. I think they will.
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Yeah, with Jalen Johnson, they're a good team.
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Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
Well, Dorca Palooza, they did the they named the transaction of the year and the MB extension did not win it. Didn't get it. Oh, wow. It was the Luka Doncic trade. The Luka Doncic trade. The Paul George deal did not get the transaction of the year. But it was given to the Los Angeles Lakers.
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But yeah, I got to see the Boston Celtics play the Philadelphia 76ers, more like the Delaware 87ers than the night I chose to attend. Yeah, tough one. Tough one. They're two and eight in their last 10. They are doing all they can, as they should. The saving the season for the Philadelphia 76ers is keeping that draft pick in a good draft.
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Oh, remember, even forget the Georgian and the Georgian and beat stuff. They have a pretty good young backcourt in McCain and Maxie here. Like, right. They could have a young core if they hit on this draft pieces. Yeah. So it's it's crazy. I know the cap. They're in cap hell. They are in cap hell for the rest of this decade.
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But if they have rookie players playing over value, that's a pretty good deodorant for that situation.
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Yeah, they're deep. They can survive a few injuries, you'd think, and still be better than this. Better than this.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
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I don't know if last year is a fair precedent, but yes, you could if you have a very physical, strong front court like the Dallas Mavericks did. That seems like a thousand years ago now. But yeah, it seems like... They are by far the most physical, nasty defense. And that depth really enables them to play almost like with line changes. They had that perpetual sub story this week.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
But they have such a great deep bench. But as you mentioned, they didn't have Caruso, who's one of the biggest dogs on the team. And they didn't have Jalen Williams.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
Other guys just came in flying around. And one of the things that crossed my mind yesterday is that could the second five best players on Oklahoma City be a playoff team by themselves? That's the kind of thing I was thinking, like, oh, my God, this team is so deep. Right. You take one of the backup bigs, you take Case on Wallace. You know, you take one of the Jay Williams.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
They have so much talent. But the coolest thing about them is they're all aligned to play this ferocious defensive style. One of the crazy stats from that game last night, though, is like, OK, the 63 threes. We can talk about that. They play like that and you only get 12 free throws. The Celtics only shot 12 free throws. Now, Celtics fans might say this or that or the other thing.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
A lot, like you said, has to do with your 63 threes.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
And then here's the stat that I thought I was looking at it today. SGA, again, was a magnificent player, but he drew 10 fouls himself on the Boston Celtics. He drew 10 fouls himself. He puts you in foul trouble, like it or not. And Jalen Brown was the Celtics player I was most sort of concerned with after this game because he got off to a slow start.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
He started getting hot in the fourth, but then he entered the fourth quarter with two fouls, and he fouled out with three and a half minutes left. What happened? SGA got him twice. SGA got him with some of the foul merch and stuff twice, his fourth and fifth fouls. Nobody's going to remember that because they remember him fouling Chet at the end.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
But he had the fifth foul because of SGA's sort of antics there at the elbow. But...
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
SGA does that to you Derek White fouled out at the end SGA needs a nickname maybe the bonus because he's just always drawing bonus yeah at least they're just always in the bonus when does Jalen Williams and Derek White both foul out in regulation I don't know SGA is a pretty good nickname on its own it's a good acronym but the bonus is solid I like that one well it just I was looking it up.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
He's drawn 10 or more fouls by himself like 11 or 12 times this season. Well, it's funny.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
Yeah, you can't hate him for what he's doing. I mean, we define athletes in different ways. But in the 2020s, we really started to understand that guys who can change direction and decelerate better than other guys are athletes. Those are top-tier athletes. We learned that with Luka and Harden. But this guy just makes it so hard.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
to have proper defensive position, even for guys like Derek White and Jalen Brown, who are incredible at that. And then he layers on this off-arm Hardenism, where he snakes his left arm when he's dribbling with his right hand into anybody's defensive arms, and then he flails, and there it is. And that's what happened to Jalen Brown on first fifth foul last night.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
I looked it up. There's three guys who are drawing six fouls themselves per game. In other words, they're fouling out the equivalent of a player on the other team every game. And you got Jalen Brunson, your favorite. There's SGA. And then there's the one guy who actually deserves to be on that list, Bill, which is the most physical assaulting player in the league right now, which is Giannis.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
Well, yeah.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
Yeah, he's still right. We're good. We're good on the scoot island or whatever we're going to call it. But I would say the Celtics fans also can't complain about this off-arm hijinks that Jason Tatum and Jalen Brown both played.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
Well, I've always liked this team, and I feel like they traded Carl Anthony Towns in part because of the new CBA, and I think it sort of took them off course. I'm a believer that they're going to finish this season very strong for a few reasons. One, you just pointed out, Julius Randle is playing his best stretch of basketball since he's gotten to Minnesota. He missed pretty much all of February.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
Yeah, I think bigger win for the Thunder than it was a loss for the Celtics. And same, I would say, about that Cleveland win in the same building a couple weeks ago, the comeback win. That was bigger for Kenny Atkinson and the Cavs to win in that building for what's coming down the road. Again, I don't think there's anything to worry about.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
If there's one thing to worry about in Boston, it's Christoph Spurzingas, like, get well soon.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
Yeah, let's get that guy back. He needs to get there before I make any judgment about where the Celtics are in this title defense. But, dude, he hasn't been there. And that's an issue. We need to get him back in the fold to see this fully-fledged Celtics title defense. Because I think teams like Boston and OKC are good enough to beat them without Christophs Porzingis.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
I think that's one of the lessons we've learned over the last few weeks, that the Celtics team isn't quite as dominant defensively. as they were last year. And maybe that there's better candidates to upset them in the postseason than there were last year.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
Dude, I'll remember. It was Tim's last season. I think I was at the Spurs. And yeah, we had the playoff series up there.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
That's important because they went 5-7 in February. But they won those last 11 games with him. I think 5 in January, now 6 straight games.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
It's a very difficult place to win.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
Not to go full Spurs deja vu, but it was like that 2012 Spurs team was so great. You remember that? That the team didn't make the finals. And OKC came back with Harden and Ibaka and took them out.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
They won game two, like by 30 at home in San Antonio and then didn't win the rest of the series. That building is a very, very difficult place.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
They can't pay all these guys. And Wallace is written on my board because he deserves to be because he played really well last night. His starter made those big shots. Five of six. Great shot blocking guard like Derek White. He loved that. Just another great young two-way player in Oklahoma City.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
Dort. And yeah, like Wallace, Isaiah, Joe, Isaiah, Joe was so SGA took his, his, his rest at the beginning of the fourth last night and the Celtics were making noise. And then he hit his own, like killer three at the top of the arc and, Yeah, the depth. I think this has come up with a couple of the teams we really like out West. Depth is going to be a real separator. It gives you versatility.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
It gives you sort of injury insurance. And Oklahoma City has the biggest depth. I think your team had the most depth in a way last year. Just could play so well. This year, I think the Thunder and the Cavs can match that. I couldn't agree more.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
Yeah. Well, the, the, the Indiana conference finals last year, right. That, you know, that this is going to be leveled up. Um, so that could be every round. Yeah.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
Let me ask you this Detroit, New York. If you had to pick that series right now, who are you taking?
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
You have Gobert, obviously, as the defensive anchor. You know what Ant is going to do as a scorer. I think he's sort of your second scorer and maybe your primary playmaker when things are going well for him. And without him, their second scorer, Bill, that's a pretty big question mark for this team.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
That's all good analysis. What I see on my end of the efficiency landscape is over the last 15 games, Detroit has the second best net rating in the entire NBA. I know.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
Cade Cunningham, Malik Beasley. Malik Beasley turning into Klay Thompson. I don't think many of us predicted that, but he is averaging like 43% from three-point range.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
Yeah. He's shooting almost 10 a game and he's making 43% of them. It's one of the best catch-and-shoot seasons of all time. And... You know, they are playing great defense in a way that the Knicks are not.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
I wouldn't want to play them if I were the Knicks. But, you know, we want to see what the Knicks get whole. But anyway, I just thought throw that in there.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
And they have a great offensive player. And I know if you haven't gotten a chance to enjoy the Cade Cunningham breakout season.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
Who are our candidates?
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
So I think his biggest thing is scoring and playmaking and just filling that void below Ant on the box score. And here's the sneaky thing with this team. They have the easiest remaining schedule of all of the Western Conference competitive sort of teams, that top seven group. And it's by a landslide.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
No, I'd go Cade because I think it is the most significant.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
Yeah. What was the other? Oh, Beasley is six man. Yes. I mean, as a nerd who loves catch and shoot stats, like this guy, this season is incredible. It's up there with the best catch and shoot seasons we've ever seen.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
Yeah. And what he brings to that team's offense that needs more offense is, um, is very important to their, their recent success. And Kate is a perfect distributor. Um, I love what they're doing. And they are not... I think you're right. Milwaukee and Indiana sort of fading while they're scorching. I don't think they'll end up as a sixth seed, which should be good news for Knicks fans.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
When the semester began, I'll take you back to January of 2025, and you and Russillo and a bunch of people were doing check-ins on the NBA vibe. At that time, the story was ratings are way down. We designed a case around what's going on with the NBA. what would you do to change it? And we had a bunch of students, like 40 or 50 students, and we'd work with FanDuel.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
They'd send us some of their handle data, which was really interesting. So to go beyond just TV ratings and look at betting handle as a proxy for interest in the league.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
Yeah, because the theory is whether you gamble or not, I think we would all admit if there are more bets on a game, that probably means more people are paying attention to it. It might not just be on in the background, people are actually paying attention to it. The key thing we found right away is that it is a good proxy for interest.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
They have this homestand where Orlando, Utah, Indiana, and two games against the Pelicans coming in. This current win streak could extend to 11 very easily. And I think if there's anybody that's going to catch that group two to five on the Western Conference standings, it's the Minnesota Timberwolves. So I really like their chances of finishing the season pretty strong.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
It may mix a lot of the TV ratings stuff we saw early in the season, which troughed in December and rebounded with that famous Christmas night game between the Lakers and Warriors. Now we're slightly down year over year, but I had the students like, hey, what would you do?
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
What would you recommend to the commissioner of the NBA to improve the popularity of our broadcasts and the overall league itself?
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
Got to start later. Move to start 45 days later in the calendar. Now, their opening day is in December. You still get that Christmas slate and you go into July, Bill. And this is really for one main reason, which is to get away from the monster that is football, specifically NFL and college football. which hogs all of our attention. It hogs my attention in the fall. It hogs your attention.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
And we think that there's a compelling case for the NBA to consider moving out from under that boot of the football attention. And in an attention economy, I think if you play more of your games In January, February, March, April, May, June, July, there's a much better chance for better television audiences and other sort of signs of interest.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
The presidential election.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
Yeah, July, traditionally, and we were lucky to have Bob Iger came to our class a couple of weeks before and said, there's a metric called HUTs, households using television, that traditionally says July is a no-fly zone on television. That's why there's no new shows. But with streaming and the changing landscape of media consumption, even he was saying, This is no longer the case.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
Like, July is open for business. There's streamers that are launching huge shows during the summer now. I think it's a little bit antiquated to say that there's no business case for playing high-level basketball games. It's a lot antiquated.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
And if you're on vacation, you have you bring your cable package with you. All of us are bringing Hulu or YouTube TV or whatever it is with us wherever we're going. I do think it is a fair criticism, Bill, to say that the NBA finals being in July would be annoying to a lot of the key stakeholders, whether those are the players, the coaches, the
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
the executives, the people running the buildings, people in Phoenix or Los Angeles might not wanna be in town in July. Those kinds of thoughts are relevant here, but ultimately I think there is a strong business case to be made that we could play the playoffs in the finals later in the spring than we currently do. That's where I landed. That's where the students landed.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
And I think it's compelling enough the league should consider it.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
Yeah, I think it would make way more money, too. And there's one word that hasn't come up, which explains why it isn't like this already, and that's baseball. When the NBA started, avoiding baseball on the calendar was that era's version of avoiding football now. You know, Mickey Mantle and the Yankees, we can't compete with that. Like, let's...
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
let's start our season right after the World Series. Like that was the logic. This is now an updated version of that where Mickey Mantle and the Yankees is now Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. And one further point, what did Disney just do this week or last couple of weeks is get off of their baseball relationship.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
That's one of the major media partners and they need inventory later into the spring and summer. There's no Sunday night baseball anymore. Well, let's put the first round of the playoffs. into April, May, June, and give them more summertime content for those key moments because they're also strapped down with football for the entire fall too.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
I think there's a lot of compelling reasons to think about this from a media perspective and as a league that's trying to gain more eyeballs and revenue in an attention economy that's increasingly competitive and increasingly in the sports world dominated by both pro football and high-level college football in the fall.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
If attention is good, then that's better. And I think the other thing you mentioned in there is like make the NBA Cup the all-star game right after the Super Bowl. That's our welcome back to the NBA moment for football. It's such a great format. Shout out to the NBA for adding that. It really makes those meaningful one-game events that the NFL has taught us are so great.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
But the NBA Cup is a winning event.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
Well, so let's say, you know, early April, college season ends. You know, if we're not starting until December, who cares if the draft is not till August or whatever?
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
Well, and the other thing that I think is starting to percolate out there is this rumor of alternate leagues coming around.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
It's not a rumor anymore. And I wonder, you know, in an era where live golf came in and the Saudi soccer thing came in, If the league keeps jamming us up with 82 games and making it such a slog, if they don't show some concession to the athletes or the players, Are they making these rival league potentials more attractive to some of their talent around? And you can call me crazy all you want.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
I'm saying if you follow soccer or golf, you've just seen this. Those things weren't going to be real until they were. I think there's a real chance. The NBA needs to be proactive here. That's what I would say. Keep being proactive. Don't be reactive here. There's a chance to make the NBA better. And if you look at the numbers, I think it was Lakers Celtics biggest broadcast of the year. Perfect.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
When did that happen? After the NFL. If you put that game on a wild card Saturday, you're done. Nobody watches that. and you put it instead in march and here we have five million people watching it on american television uh that's a big deal that's the kind of incremental improvement we could ramp up across the across the business uh if we got out of the way of football
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
So one of the people at the NBA told me is like, you know, we came up with the NBA Cup as a way to sort of help the owners compensate for a loss of regular season inventory. And when confronted with the idea, hey, let's go down to 70 games or 74 games. We're going to add this in-season property to compensate for that. We'll sell it to a media partner.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
The owners, of course, came back with, well, why don't we do 82 games and the in-season tournament?
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
And not lose any money. So I think somebody needs to do a better job of convincing owners and players that somehow we're going to make the same amount of total revenue if we drop the games to 70, 69, whatever we decide. Because right now, that's the case that has failed to make it across the table and land with the owners. And that's the simple reason why we still have 82 games.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
Yeah, imagine a world where you get paid more money to play less basketball and travel around the world. Way less basketball. Way less basketball, right? Imagine a world where you're paid more money to play less basketball, travel around the world.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
You get to live, if you're Luka, I haven't heard anything, but if you're Luka, you can live in Slovenia and make these flights to Singapore or Manila or Shanghai to play in this touring style, F1 almost structured basketball league. Again, anybody who's followed soccer or golf knows this could happen. It's happened. So to sit here and say this is impossible is to be naive. And
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
Basketball is legitimately a global sport now in the NBA. It is a global league to its credit. I got to go to Paris and watch NBA games. But there was two games on the continent of Europe all year long. People in the Philippines would kill to see this level of basketball. People in China, people in Europe. people in Africa, Australia. This is truly a global game, unlike baseball or football.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
And so I think that makes it even more attractive to somebody to come through and try to disrupt it. Because you know what? Memphis and Cleveland, those are cool cities, but so are Singapore and Shanghai. And there's real money around there.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
Dude, down here in Texas, there's like more than one of my friends, multiple friends, Mavericks fan friends that are not joking when they say I'm rooting for the Lakers this year.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
Like maybe these brands aren't as strong as we think they are in the in the social media era where you say, oh, not with kids on. Yeah. Oh, I'm a little bit conscious. Kids follow the players. Yeah. Shout out to Jason Gallagher's kid again. I mean, like, that's the future.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
Dude, I mean, that's exactly how these kids follow soccer. They're Ronaldo or they're Messi or they're Mbappe and they're going with them wherever that's going. Why wouldn't that happen to these athletes that are just as popular?
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
And one last point about the 82 games. It's more than just too much inventory. Load management, if you look at the data, load management really annoys fans. People don't want to turn on TNT like we did for that Celtics-Sixers game the other night and see the main Red Claws and the Delaware 87ers. Yeah. Uh, one of the reasons that happens is we're, we're, we're putting too many games out there.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
If we had fewer games, there'd be fewer load management situations. We would have full, full teams playing each other. The product would be better on average.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
simulation mode you can enter yeah yeah but yeah i think that's a big thing bill i think the shorter season where games feel more like events it takes a little blind faith to see that that could get you to more revenue but i love your point about hey well you just locked up this huge media rights deal do you really need a lot every people are paying the most money they've ever paid for your teams like this is a time now to be proactive
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
Yeah, Dillingham is a nice rookie story, but, like, come on. We're talking about a team that had Western Conference title aspirations at the beginning of the year, and a rookie really isn't going to slide into that and make a lot of noise. I think Dave Vincenzo is a great sort of similar thing to Randall. He's gotten time to learn this team. He's fitting in.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
Thank you, Bill. Thank you.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
But remember last year, I thought this team had the best vibes in the playoffs for a while, and a lot of that had to do with Nas Reed, who is like the spirit animal of the whole Timberwolves fan base. Never say anything negative about Nas Reed, Bill. Right. Alexander Walker.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Minnesota’s Coming, OKC’s Here, and We Can Save the NBA Season With Kirk Goldsberry and Bill’s Dad
But they're big and they're physical and they're long. And they gave, you know, everybody forgets, like, they gave Jamal Murray a lot of problems last night. They gave MBJ a lot of problems last night. When they're really at their best, you know, they have McDaniels on defense. They're long on the perimeter. They're playing hard. And when those same dudes...
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that are playing great perimeter defense are also knocking down shots like that. There's a really good team. That's a really good team. And I like it. And there was a couple of times last night where I thought Randall, like, yeah, it's like what it looks like. He'll just take it right at Joker and just overpower him.
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And that's another thing he can do is, is go get an unassisted bucket in a way that some of these catch and shoot guys can't do.
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Dude, he is like the ultimate hot and cold analytics guy. Yeah. There are even whole seasons, Bill, where you're like, this guy's terrible. And then the next season, you're like, this guy's an all-star. Yeah. If he has sort of a legacy for the stats nerds, it's like he is the hardest guy to pin down maybe in the whole league.
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And so he's been a frustrating guy to characterize even through the most advanced numbers over the last five years.
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I think he's ready to be the best player on a playoff team that's going to win one, maybe two rounds. It's hard for me to see them winning two rounds. Just out of respect for the rest of the West. Although, one of the more sort of emergent stories with last night is they give the Nuggets a very difficult time. And it's not just last night. I think it's five straight against them. Yeah. And...
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It is because Jamal Murray, who has been great, you know, the Nuggets, Jokic, you can set your watch by this guy's going to be great. But Jamal Murray, they seem to have his number. And I think if you can slow down Jamal Murray, you have a good chance to beat the Nuggets in the playoffs.
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And I think this team is built to slow down the Jamal Murray's of the world because of their perimeter defenders. And I think Anthony Edwards is just the kind of fourth quarter crunch time score, go get a free throw, go get a bucket. Uh, I think he's there. Um, and I think they're really well-rounded. The last thing I'd add bill is I do like their coaching. I like their coaching staff.
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I think they're built for a playoff series. I think they make adjustments. I think they're not one of these coaching staffs that just goes in and does what they always do. Uh, so I like how they're built. Uh,
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And depending on the matchups, which I think is the biggest story in the Western Conference, Bill, going into this last 20 game stretch, 15 game stretch, how these seeds shake out is going to be fascinating. Who gets who in the first round is going to determine a lot of who makes it to the conference finals, because some of these matchups are really good for one side and really bad for the other.
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And I think that Minnesota Denver matchup is a great example of that.
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Yeah, another thing to watch on strength of schedule, because the Western Conference is brutal depending on how your schedule sort of shakes out. The Lakers and the Grizzlies are on the opposite end. They have a very tough remaining schedule. So the Lakers are sort of hanging on to that fourth spot right now, as you mentioned, without LeBron James. The Rockets have won four straight.
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They could surpass them. You could see a world where the Lakers... the Timberwolves and the Warriors are really good teams, but all going into these first-round series as a road team. Yeah. And many of them with championship experience. Obviously, the Warriors and Lakers have some championship experience. So it's really interesting to me.
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Yeah, I wish I had taken better care of some of the other stuff. The Grantland Quarterlies, I foolishly lost those. I mean, hand up. What an idiot. But yeah, dude, at least we got what we got, okay? And we're old, like you said. Take what we can get. And again, shout out to the Podfather for putting us together once again. This is great.
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Yeah, I'm going to go in a sequence that's going to throw off our rookie of the year discussion. I don't want to give it away by saying some name first. So I'm going to go Saar, Wells, Eadie, Risa Shea, Castle. First team all rookie.
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Yeah, I like this kid. I think Saar is going to be a great player in this league for a long time. I think the Wizards should be happy with him. I'm not mad at the Kallelware take. That was the one I struggled with. You can make an argument that a player playing on a team like Washington should be sort of docked because there are stats to be had. What do we call it?
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Good player, bad team guy, for sure. I just think, you know, he... he is what we thought he was. This is a good rookie year for one of the top players in the draft, a weak draft. Um, and I think that he is set up for long-term success at his position. Um, and I don't know what else he could have really done in that environment this year, uh, to, to get noticed. Um, but Zach, I'm not mad.
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In fact, yeah, I'll just leave it at that. I'm not mad, but I have sorry there. I have sorry there.
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Yeah, and one other thing. He is a full year younger than Kalel Ware, and I wouldn't factor that into voting, but I would factor that into the analysis of the player. You know, the rookie awards are for rookies. It doesn't matter if you're 19 or 22 or whatever. So I'm not saying that.
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But at his age, these numbers are equally encouraging, and essentially he'll be the same age as Kalel next year in his sophomore year. And I think that's really relevant because I expect him to be –
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a much better shooter, like a lot of these young players you alluded to, and if they can get some better playmaking and some better offensive threats and gravity on that team, I could see a lot of his numbers going up. And the passing I had circled, too, I think classic sort of European big. Like, that's an area to grow, too. I like this player, and I like this pick. No disrespect to Colella Ware.
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That's the exact place on this list that I struggled, too.
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You gave Bub the volume award? Yeah. I gave Bub, again, he probably benefits. And one of the things that is weird with the rules, with the games, and some of this stuff, is the Wizards have space to showcase these rookies. And some of the teams, some of these guys are penalized for getting drafted on more competent teams. Teams with deeper rosters.
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Ultimately, I landed with Bub Carrington on my second team, yeah. Wow. Okay. It's tough out there, dude. This draft, there's not a lot of differentiators. Last year, I was looking back, who do we have? Wemby, Brandon Miller, Chet. I mean, it's a different group, dude. Well, it's...
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Wow, we're not. Dude, I don't know why you expected this to coalesce. This is chaos on this list. I was just really happy with my team. Now you have me questioning. Don't keep our new listeners waiting.
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Yeah, I like his future better. I think he's been a little more explosive at times. I think he's more congruent with the way the league is. Some of his highlight plays have stuck out to me. But it's really hard to evaluate these players in these environments.
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Again, I think one of the biggest problems in the NBA right now, we would agree, is this competitive thing at the end of seasons and in some cases throughout the season. And for me, it's really hard to evaluate players in an ecosystem where – teams may not be putting their best foot forward.
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It's really, I think, relevant to the Memphis players who deserve credit for playing meaningful minutes as rookies in really meaningful games. I think it's a case we'll talk about.
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One of the scariest falls I've seen in pro basketball in my life. A terrifying moment. Prayers up to him and his family. But out of respect, those Grizzlies characters, they had to play meaningful minutes against Western Conference opponents, and they're trying to win basketball games. And I wish I didn't have to say this, but when we're talking about players from the Jazz or the Wizards,
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It's simply not the same conversation. How do you evaluate players in this environment? And I think, like, Wells is a great example, defending, you know, really good players on the other team very well in meaningful moments, like Zach Eadie coming out there and getting big rebounds, making big plays in big moments. I think Risha Shea has a little bit of that.
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claim too so ultimately I really struggle with the second team all rookie because it's stacked with candidates from these environments Zach let me let's go through my honorable mentions and I'm going to focus on the ones I feel guiltiest about
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I looked at him for the second team. I mean, again, with the standard of did you play meaningful basketball in your rookie year? I don't think that's too high of a bar. But unfortunately for this conversation, it's a real sort of litmus test for some of these dudes.
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And Dalton obviously had a bizarre incident in February that derailed whatever he thought was happening in his rookie season, where he sent to Charlotte temporarily and then returned.
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I feel like he has one thing he does really well, and it's really important in the game of basketball. And I think his rim protection is... Noteworthy. And, again, he's not first team, but Portland had flashes of competence throughout the season, and he was a part of that. He can rebound the basketball. He's a presence. But ultimately, it's blocked shots and rim protection, Zach, with this dude.
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And I think that's a really valuable skill in the NBA right now, and Portland should be excited they got it.
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Others receiving votes. I know Bill Simmons is, if he's listening to this, he's screaming that, that neither of us had him on this. No, I have him.
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All right. Well, shout out. I think he's a great player. I think the bulls, I wish that we saw a little more of the, This version of the Bulls without Levine, because I think he had if he had a full season with with that environment, I think he would have easily made second team on my list, maybe even first team. But I think he's a great young player.
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And I think, you know, probably the 11th guy on my list if I had to if I had to say that.
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Well, you know that I worked for the San Antonio Spurs for a while. And this should come as no surprise that I believe Stephen Castle is the rookie of the year. And then Risha Shea is a close second. And then I would probably have Wells third. But I...
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think this is an interesting race as you alluded to earlier this was another player's award to lose something that we're going to talk about again here in a minute this went to uh when was it december we saw an injury change this race um when mccain got hurt and had surgery and was ruled out that was a great story uh for the sixers and a great story for the rookie class but since then i think this has been a hard question to answer in a way that it's been
The Zach Lowe Show
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It's been up in the air. But I went with Castle. I think he's done the most different stuff. He's been really impressive to me in two different roles, sort of as a two-guard and as a point guard, as a starter, as a bench player. There is a fair knock on this young man, which is shooting, which is not unusual for a rookie player. Everything else, though, Zach, is pretty strong.
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And if you go watch him in person, he is one of these dudes who is just so physical and so competitive. He just gives the Spurs another dude. He's a good defender. He's a great finisher. He had 14 assists in a game last month against Philly. Good pick and roll player. Can play ISO. He's the most complete player here.
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Now, there's a case for Risa Shea, and you might make it, but I like the completeness and the versatility of Stephen Castle, and that's my case for him.
The Zach Lowe Show
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Yeah. And when you talk to the Spurs, they don't talk about stats with them. They talk about presence in the locker room, the intangibles, the competitiveness. And that's not a common thing in this league right now. And so I think the player is more than the stats. But that said. If I'm picking as a stat nerd between Risha Shea and Castle, I'm picking Castle.
The Zach Lowe Show
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We didn't even mention his rebounding. There's some Josh Hart-like rebounding numbers here. It's a good point. It's a good point.
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Yeah, there's games where he has double-digit rebounds, and he is not one of the bigger guys on the floor. He is a physical force. And I think there was a Mike Munro piece in The Athletic that I'd call out. Cause I think it was Mitch Johnson. It's like, they have very little doubt that the, the man, the young man is everything he does. He works so hard that the shooting's going to come.
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The shooting's going to come. It's like, it's such a hard piece of the NBA for the young players to get. But his work ethic is there. It's like a, it's kind of like a Lou door thing. Like if he can just get this man, he's going to have a very, very long, good, valuable career. And there's confidence at the Spurs that he's definitely got the work ethic to get that shooting piece fixed.
The Zach Lowe Show
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Agree, disagree, give me your top three, wherever you want to start. Again, the sixth man of the year playing 20 minutes a game, it's like, what are we doing? Like, that's going to eliminate a lot of potential candidates for years to come.
The Zach Lowe Show
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Quick tangent. Did you watch the Celtics-Knicks game last night?
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Interesting, I know, collapse. They were doing a Duke Blue Devils imitation there, I think. But look, if you look at Jalen Brown's game logs over the last week, speaking of the player participation rules and these thresholds, Jalen is suddenly playing 21 minutes a game.
The Zach Lowe Show
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yeah and he didn't look good out there and like they have a real title defense here and and if that knee is flaring up like maybe it's time to to make sure the knee's ready for for the postseason i'll let them run their team but i just saw that and i thought that you would think that it's interesting is there's there's clearly some gaming of this system um that affects these awards whether it's all nba six man of the year um
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And in some cases, it's having really positive effects. In other cases, like this Jalen Brown thing, I think he should probably be shut down. They're the two seed. These games don't really matter.
The Zach Lowe Show
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I have... A DeAndre Hunter two team thing. I think he has to be on there at number three.
The Zach Lowe Show
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Yeah, I learned this from social media. Keep the audience on the platform a little bit longer. Number two is very hard, but I'm going to go with Peyton Pritchard because Malik Beasley deserves to be sixth man of the year in a league that insists on three-point shooting being so valuable.
The Zach Lowe Show
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This is simply one of the best three-point shooting seasons we've ever seen from a player not named Stephen Curry. and if you think I'm exaggerating, I have some facts to back it up. He's having one of the best catch-and-shoot seasons we had in the player tracking era. He's made over 300 threes and is converting over 40%. It's a season that compares favorably to almost any Clay Thompson season.
The Zach Lowe Show
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I think there's one Thompson season I'd put above this season. So the Pistons have a Klay Thompson-like shooter coming off the bench. He leads the entire league in both catch-and-shoot threes attempted and made, and among the top 50 in that category, ranks sixth in efficiency. All told, he's made 305 total threes. Only two players in NBA history, Zach, have made more than 305 threes in a season.
The Zach Lowe Show
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Stephen Curry and James Harden. Klay has never made 305. So when I look at that and I look at what's happened in Detroit and I did this other exercise because Peyton Pritchard, I went back and forth. If I took Pritchard off of the Celtics and I took Beasley off of the Pistons, I think the effect of the Beasley removal would be catastrophic for the Pistons.
The Zach Lowe Show
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And I think the removing of Peyton Pritchard is not necessarily catastrophic for the Boston Celtics.
The Zach Lowe Show
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Thank you.
The Zach Lowe Show
Luka’s Emotional Night in Dallas: Scenes From Last Night’s Lakers-Mavs Game With Marc Stein. Plus, More NBA Awards With Kirk Goldsberry.
Thank you.
The Zach Lowe Show
Luka’s Emotional Night in Dallas: Scenes From Last Night’s Lakers-Mavs Game With Marc Stein. Plus, More NBA Awards With Kirk Goldsberry.
Thank you.
The Zach Lowe Show
Luka’s Emotional Night in Dallas: Scenes From Last Night’s Lakers-Mavs Game With Marc Stein. Plus, More NBA Awards With Kirk Goldsberry.
Thank you.
The Zach Lowe Show
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Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
The Zach Lowe Show
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Draymond. Now, I talked to our friends at FanDuel because this has been one of a – it's just been a crazy saga. I'm not a big gambler, but I like to look at odds throughout the season as a way to sort of track the sentiment of these awards. And Victor Wambanyama on February 20th was a runaway favorite to win this award. At that time, Draymond Green was 86-1 to win defensive player.
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That's not that long ago. That's seven weeks ago. Uh, he began to publicly campaign two weeks later. He's 28 to one Zach three weeks later. He's five to one a month later. He's the favorite. So what happened, dude? It coincides with the Butler trade. Obviously the Wembley injury is the biggest event that we can look back at and how this race changed.
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But two other things I think happened that are really relevant. Um, the Warriors go on a terror. They go on a highly visible terror. He's running his mouth. Their defense looks like, again, like a top-five defense, and he is clearly the biggest reason for that. He is clearly the biggest reason for that, and that's a point I'll come back to. Lou Dort's come up.
The Zach Lowe Show
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Jaron Jackson has fallen off quite a bit because of the Taylor Jenkins stuff and that team sliding, and so it does come down to Green and Mobley. My question for you, my guy... is Evan Mobley even the best defensive player on his own team?
The Zach Lowe Show
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There's a great tweet by Jay Croucher out there that my friend sent me, and it goes through like six of the nerdiest models for defense, like one number metrics. These things are flawed, but all six of them have Draymond in the top 10. These are things like Estimated Plus Minus, Raptor, the LeBron.
The Zach Lowe Show
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um evan mobley is not in the top 10 in any of those and then if you drill down even further on you know play types rim protection stats draymond really outperforms mobley across the board with the exception of rebounding i think which is naturally hard to do when you're a very undersized player so
The Zach Lowe Show
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I think you then layer on sort of the defensive leadership piece that he provides the Golden State Warriors. Again, if he left the team, if he's hurt, this defense falls apart. It falls apart. So I landed on Draymond. The name that I haven't heard enough of in the Lou Dort class is
The Zach Lowe Show
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Right, right, right, right. You don't have to go far back this week to find examples of him, you know, making Steph Curry look terrible, which is not easy to do.
The Zach Lowe Show
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And I think when you look at some of these advanced metrics, Amin Thompson is the name that deserves to be included in this discussion with Lou Dort as that kind of guy, the very physical, muscular perimeter defender, the athlete defender. Yeah.
The Zach Lowe Show
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I think I agree with the people who say this award almost all the time should go to a front court player just because that's where the influence of defenders really is. I also want to say that I love Evan Mobley. I could see him winning this award multiple times in his career. I think he's a very deserving candidate.
The Zach Lowe Show
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No, that's true. Still, there's fatigue, dude. We talked about this. There is fatigue. There's a list of superstars that should have eight of the same trophy that have three or four. Fair. But, yeah, you're right. Hey, as a Spurs guy, I think Wembley should have this award locked up for a while. But nothing against Mobley.
The Zach Lowe Show
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I just think what Draymond brings to the table, both through the nerdy stats and as a leader of that group, and enables them to play lineups in a play style because of his versatility on defense. So that's where I landed.
The Zach Lowe Show
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Great to have you back.