Joe Biden

Yeah, I mean, I don't know how anyone could say that ever. I mean, in any condition, right? In any condition, I don't know how anyone could ever say there's no chance at all happening. And when you look at just the degree of tightening that we've gotten in financial markets, and by tightening, I mean, like, if you're issuing equity, that's gotten more expensive because the price has gone down.

Yeah, I mean, I don't know how anyone could say that ever. I mean, in any condition, right? In any condition, I don't know how anyone could ever say there's no chance at all happening. And when you look at just the degree of tightening that we've gotten in financial markets, and by tightening, I mean, like, if you're issuing equity, that's gotten more expensive because the price has gone down.

If you're issuing credit, not only have you seen yields rise, you've seen credit spreads rise.

If you're issuing credit, not only have you seen yields rise, you've seen credit spreads rise.

um and just the higher costs of all kinds of inputs and then the sort of negativity that's in you know out in the you know out in the ether out in the media it's hard for me to believe that there is literally no chance at all of a recession even you know i would say actually there are a lot of people there are some people who think that um a recession has started already right larry fink um

um and just the higher costs of all kinds of inputs and then the sort of negativity that's in you know out in the you know out in the ether out in the media it's hard for me to believe that there is literally no chance at all of a recession even you know i would say actually there are a lot of people there are some people who think that um a recession has started already right larry fink um

The CEO of Blackstone said, I think about a week and a half ago, that the CEOs he talks to think the recession has already begun. Charlie Gasparino, who works for Fox Business, said he talks to CEOs who think that a recession is either imminent or has perhaps already begun.

The CEO of Blackstone said, I think about a week and a half ago, that the CEOs he talks to think the recession has already begun. Charlie Gasparino, who works for Fox Business, said he talks to CEOs who think that a recession is either imminent or has perhaps already begun.

If you look at the betting markets, you know, there's like at least a 50-50% chance, according to people with money on the line, that a recession has begun. So the idea that there's no chance at all of a recession in 2025 strikes me as a little bit implausible.

If you look at the betting markets, you know, there's like at least a 50-50% chance, according to people with money on the line, that a recession has begun. So the idea that there's no chance at all of a recession in 2025 strikes me as a little bit implausible.

I mean, there's an extraordinary amount of uncertainty, obviously. I mean, look, I guess the market presumes that there is not going to be 145% tariffs on iPhones. That seems like, OK, it's not going to be that big, which maybe some people thought that was going to be. And, you know, that would just be an eye-popping, a staggering number. But the important thing is that...

I mean, there's an extraordinary amount of uncertainty, obviously. I mean, look, I guess the market presumes that there is not going to be 145% tariffs on iPhones. That seems like, OK, it's not going to be that big, which maybe some people thought that was going to be. And, you know, that would just be an eye-popping, a staggering number. But the important thing is that...

A lot of the action, if you look in the market, really took place before April 2nd, before so-called Liberation Day. And so, you know, it's like, you know, Apple is a $202 stock. This is the time we're talking about this. You know, it had been over $240 in late February.

A lot of the action, if you look in the market, really took place before April 2nd, before so-called Liberation Day. And so, you know, it's like, you know, Apple is a $202 stock. This is the time we're talking about this. You know, it had been over $240 in late February.

So already a lot of the anxiety from this trade war was getting baked into the market even before we, you know, the actual formal numbers, which still seem very uncertain, were revealed.

So already a lot of the anxiety from this trade war was getting baked into the market even before we, you know, the actual formal numbers, which still seem very uncertain, were revealed.

You know what? I'm really glad you asked that question because I would just say I will do a plug for my own podcast, Odd Lots, which we have an episode that will come out Tuesday morning. I'm not sure when this will come out. We're actually on this question exactly. So here's the good news. Here's the good news. It's not that big of a deal. It turns out they're not that rare.

You know what? I'm really glad you asked that question because I would just say I will do a plug for my own podcast, Odd Lots, which we have an episode that will come out Tuesday morning. I'm not sure when this will come out. We're actually on this question exactly. So here's the good news. Here's the good news. It's not that big of a deal. It turns out they're not that rare.

They're not that much. It turns out, and I didn't know this up until we talked to our own colleague who really knows this stuff, the number one use of so-called rare earth metals is actually in vacuum cleaners. In the worst comes... Yeah, I know, this... It sounds really scary where your earth metals or China has control over them. It turns out this is not that.

They're not that much. It turns out, and I didn't know this up until we talked to our own colleague who really knows this stuff, the number one use of so-called rare earth metals is actually in vacuum cleaners. In the worst comes... Yeah, I know, this... It sounds really scary where your earth metals or China has control over them. It turns out this is not that.