Jeff Smith
Appearances
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
If we're lucky at no point in time, you know, the good news is we've been here before with India and Pakistan. And, you know, the two countries have a history of skirmishes and conflicts and all out wars. And both of them have had nuclear weapons for a few decades now. And.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
Fortunately, none of these conflicts have produced any kind of nuclear exchange, and my expectation is that this one will not either. But anytime you have two countries at each other's throats with nukes pointing at each other, you've got to be a little more sensitive and take a little bit more care with how you observe and try to manage that conflict than you do with non-nuclear powers.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
Yeah, and we'll try to keep it very top line because you could easily spend a few hours on this, but essentially when the British gave up control of India in the late 1940s, there was a very traumatic split where the vast majority of the Muslims in the Indian subcontinent went to what would become Pakistan and the vast majority of Hindus stayed in what eventually became India.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
But there was a territory between them that they both claimed, named Kashmir, that essentially produced a conflict over this disputed territory right at inception, right at independence, alongside a very bloody partition and my mass migration of Muslims to Pakistan and Hindus to India.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
But this territory remained disputed ever since independence in 1947, ever since their first conflict there in the late 1940s, moving on to a second conflict over Kashmir in 1965, a third in 1971, a more minor war over Kashmir in 1999.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
Und jetzt eine Reihe von Terrorist-Attacken und dann indischen militärischen Unterdrückungen, die in Intensität hervorgehoben sind, wohl seit 2016, als das Modi-Gewerbe in Kraft kam und sagte, dass wir diese Terrorist-Attacken in Kashmir nicht mehr akzeptieren werden, die wir von Pakistan sehen. We spent several decades essentially diplomatically protesting these terrorist attacks.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
But, you know, this is a new India, a rising India, a more powerful and confident India. And now we're going to strike back. And so since 2016, we've seen this series of sort of escalating Indian military responses zu diesen verschiedenen terroristischen Angriffen, aber das ist ein Buchend auf 65 Jahre von Konflikten über Kashmir zwischen Indien und Pakistan.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
Yeah, I think, you know, it is a territorial issue. I think there's certainly with Pakistan being an overwhelmingly majority Muslim country, an Islamic Republic that that frames much of its rhetoric in religious terms. It's hard not to see a religious angle to this when India is over 80% Hindu, Pakistan is over 90% Muslim.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
Pakistan is frequently appealing to the Muslim world for support, although the Muslim world hasn't been all that supportive of Pakistan of late. Aber ich wundere mich nicht, zu sagen, dass es ein völlig religiöses Problem ist, weil wahrscheinlich immer noch 10-15% der Inder Muslime sind. Und viele von ihnen wollen nicht in Pakistan leben.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
Viele von ihnen wollen nicht, dass Pakistan Kashmir kontrolliert. Viele von ihnen sind viel glücklicher, ehrlich gesagt, in Indien zu leben, als sie es in Pakistan wären. Besonders Minoritätsmuslimen, die von den islamistischen Sunni-Militanten in Pakistan zutreffend sind.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
Also gibt es da sicherlich einen religiösen Kontext, und es wäre nicht verrückt, den Konflikt in diesen Terminen zu beurteilen. Aber ich denke, es ist ehrlich gesagt mehr ein territoriales Thema als ein religiöses Konflikt.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
Yeah, well, I mean, on one hand, India's relations with the Muslim world have been expanding pretty dramatically over the past 20 years, in part because India is a rising power. I mean, it's now, it's going to be, if not already, the third largest economy in the world. And it is already the third largest defense spender in the world.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
Und so ist das ein Land, mit dem die Leute Business machen wollen, insbesondere die Gulf-Länder, die arabischen Gulf-Monarchen, die Saudis und die UAE insbesondere, sind viel näher zu Indien, Indonesien sind näher zu Indien. Modi hat, ehrlich gesagt, viel Ausdruck für die muslimische Welt gemacht. Du weißt, dass er oft diesen hindu-nationalistischen You know, scary, scary guy.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
He actually has been expanding India's ties to the Muslim world for many years. And, you know, Pakistan, on the other hand, is increasingly kind of been a bit of a basket case. A lot of other Muslim countries don't agree with the fundamentalism that Pakistan practices and its support for the Taliban.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
Und ehrlich gesagt, Pakistan ist jetzt nur noch ein politischer und ökonomischer Schlamm, der seit einiger Zeit ständig von der IMF gefeuert werden musste, von einigen ihrer Partner im Golf, die ständig politische und ökonomische Krisen befinden. Und deshalb ist es ein bisschen ein Bedürfnis für viele ihrer Partner im muslimischen Welt, aber auch in China.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
Seit die Vereinigten Staaten und Pakistan einen ziemlich wichtigen Splitt in den letzten Jahrzehnten haben, hat Pakistan immer mehr nach China geschaut, als sein geopolitischer Vorteil. Und die Chinesen, denke ich, werden sogar ein wenig krank, wenn sie für Pakistan Wasser tragen.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
It's a really interesting story, actually, because, you know, 15 years ago, India and the US were very estranged and we were quite close to Pakistan. And it always, you know, struck people as a little peculiar that why aren't we closer with this large democracy that speaks English?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
Und die Wahrheit ist, dass es die Cold War-Politik war, dass die Vereinigten Staaten gegen die Sowjetunion in Südasien einen Verein suchen wollten. Und Pakistan war sehr ehrgeizig, sich in diese Rolle einzulassen. Und so formten wir eine Partnerschaft mit Pakistan, weißt du, damals in den 1950er-Jahren, die sich wirklich besonders auf die Sowjetunion konzentrierte.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
Aber Indien, natürlich, sah es nicht ganz so aus. Alles, was es sah, war, dass sein Rival nebenan nahe der Vereinigten Staaten war. Und was hat die Vereinigten Staaten gegen uns, Indien? Warum gibst du diesem Land Geld und Arme, die es eventuell gegen uns benutzen wird? And we're sitting there kind of saying, well, look, it's not about you, it's about the Soviets.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
But, you know, for the Indians, the military hardware, it doesn't really matter much who it's intended for. But what really broke things between the US and India was when we also then outreached to China in the 1970s. Und du hattest Indien, die sagten, warte einen Moment, du sagst mir, dass China und Pakistan deine beiden besten Freunde in meinem Nachbarland sind?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
Weißt du, diese sind keine guten Charaktere hier. Und vielleicht müssen wir uns mit der Sowjetunion verbinden, damit wir irgendeinen Art von Unterstützung haben, weil wir nicht wissen, ob wir gegen China und Pakistan in irgendeinem Zeitpunkt in die Waffe gehen müssen. Also haben sie fast diese Partnerschaft mit der Sowjetunion geformt.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
by necessity, because they felt like they were surrounded and the United States had partnered up with the bad guys. In hindsight, it's kind of understandable to see why they might have felt that way. And it wasn't until the collapse of the Soviet Union and eventually 9-11 that dass die Cold War-Politik zerstört wurde und wir die Region wieder neu betrachten konnten.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
Wir merkten, dass wir viel mit Indien zusammen haben und wir viele gemeinsame strategische Interessen haben. Pakistan ist auf der anderen Seite ein sehr problematischer Partner. Natürlich mussten wir nach 9-11 mit ihnen verbinden, weil wir in Afghanistan waren und wir Nutzungsrouten in das Land brauchten.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
But the longer that war went on, the more we realized that these guys are actually playing a double game and on one hand helping us and on the other hand giving money and arms and support to the Taliban and the guys that are taking shots at our soldiers.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
I don't know about hard evidence linking it to the Pakistani government, but they've, I think, done a reasonable job linking it to existing terrorist groups that operate in Pakistan that we know have historically received support from the Pakistani government.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
Und in der Tat hat das pakistanische Regierungsverband sich keine Fähigkeiten gemacht, weil kurz nach dem ersten indischen Konterstrahl, der ein paar Terroristen-Training-Kampfe geöffnet hat, gab es einen Feierabend für einen dieser verletzten Terroristen. Und am Feierabend hattest du Terroristen, die auf der US-Terroristen-Warteliste waren.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
einen Sermon zu geben, neben den pakistanischen Militärofficern und den pakistanischen Intelligenz-Officern, die den toten Terroristen beurteilen.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
Yeah, exactly. You don't need to be an intelligence officer yourself to draw some of these connections. And you don't need to be an analyst to look at historical patterns and say, okay, of the last hundred terrorist attacks in Kashmir... 100 von ihnen wurden zurückgeleitet zu Gruppen mit Linken zur pakistanischen Militär- und Intelligenz-Service.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
Also, was sind die Chancen, dass dieser auch ein Produkt des selben Militär- und Intelligenz-Komplexes war?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
Well, I was hoping, frankly, that it would end after the first exchange and so We had a similar situation in 2016 and again in 2019 where, especially in 2019 bears the most resemblance here, where there was a terrorist attack in Kashmir, India felt compelled to respond, launched some strikes inside Pakistan, sort of minimal actual damage or casualties, but enough to say
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
to its own people that we gave a forceful response. In fact, we set a new precedent in 2019 by not just striking targets in Kashmir, but going beyond this disputed territory and actually striking terrorist targets in Pakistan proper, in the Pakistani homeland. So they set that new precedent in 2019.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
Then we assumed after this terrorist attack, they were going to have to escalate that even further, which they did. So this time they struck targets in Kashmir, but they also went into the Pakistani heartland. And this time even further into the Pakistani heartland to prove a point. The hope was that Pakistan could...
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
Either claim victory by saying that maybe we downed an Indian aircraft and there's some evidence to suggest that one of their French aircraft was downed, although the pilot may well have ejected. But maybe one or up to three Indian aircraft were downed. Maybe Pakistan lobs some missiles back into Kashmir at a near Indian army base, but they don't hit anybody.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
And then both sides can claim victory to their respective publics and go home. That's essentially what happened in 2019. That's what most of us thought would hopefully happen in this case. But both sides seem to be choosing escalation. I think Pakistan has had an off-ramp since the first exchange, but it chose not to take it. And it chose to respond with drone strikes on Indian military targets.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
That was one thing that the Indians in their first wave of attacks sie haben keine pakistanische Militär- oder zivilisierte Infrastruktur getarget, die sie beurteilen. Sie haben nur diese Camps getroffen.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
Aber in Pakistans ersten Rückflug haben sie indische Militär-Fazilitäten getarget, die Indien ermutigt haben zu sagen, okay, jetzt steigst du den Anteil und wir kommen nach deinen Militär-Fazilitäten und wir werden in der Tat einige Drohnen in deine Städte schicken. And now Pakistan is responding with its own wave of drones, hundreds in the last volley across the line into multiple Indian targets.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
And so unfortunately, the two sides are still climbing the escalation ladder. And, you know, I think both sides have an interest in climbing off, but you never know when that and who's going to take the first step off the ladder.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
Yeah, it's very possible. They've got an army chief and you know in Pakistan the real power lies with the military. Pakistani army essentially controls the country. You know, if there's a prime minister that's getting out of line that they don't like, he's arrested and thrown in jail and it's happened. Frequently.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
In fact, it's usually the Pakistani military picking who's going to be next prime minister. And then it's just a question of how long it takes before he pisses the military off and gets thrown in jail and they decide they want to go with someone else. So it's really the army chief now who's actually been somewhat vulnerable within Pakistan. There's been a lot of discontent with his leadership.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
He also is seen as a particularly religious person who frames the conflict with India in religious and even messianic terms. So that's probably not helping the situation.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
Well, I think India's arsenal is a little bit bigger, but I think Pakistan has enough that they are survivable from a first attack and capable of doing catastrophic damage to India. And so after you hit a certain threshold, it's really not about who's got bigger. It's just, can we wipe each other off the map? And for now, it seems the answer is yes.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
The other wrinkle, of course, with Pakistan is that not only do you have this sort of messianic religious leadership, but you also have, you know, what I call a Disneyland of terrorist groups operating in that country. You know, many of them with the support of the Pakistani state, but also many now that don't have the support of the Pakistani state and are targeting Pakistan.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
You know, that's the irony is that...
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
Pakistan is both the biggest supporter of terrorism worldwide, if not number one, certainly two or three up there with Iran, but it's also one of the biggest victims of terrorism, and it's just partly because they've got so many terrorist groups in this playground, as some of them are actually targeting the Pakistani state, and probably wouldn't mind getting their hands on some of these nukes.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
Now, it's easier said than done, but it does still add an additional layer of So, who at this stage
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
Yeah, probably China at this point, with the US being a close second. Not because we give Pakistan much aid anymore. In fact, we cut almost all of it off during the Trump administration. Well, the first Trump administration.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
But we are still able to exert a lot of leverage over any country, just with the power of our market and our influence in international institutions, our ability to sanction Pakistan. So we do still have some leverage over that country. They certainly don't want to make the US an open antagonist, but they're also not really taking cues from us on how to respond to this.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
Our relationship with Pakistan right now is not good in general. China ist aber sehr sensibel zu seiner Meinung. Sie wissen, dass China ihr letzter großer Vorteil ist, der ihnen immer noch viel Geld und Investitionen geben wird. Und wenn China auf sie lehnen würde, dann würde das schon lange dauern. Das Problem ist natürlich, dass China auch ein Rival von Indien ist.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
Und zu irgendeinem Niveau denke ich, dass die Chinesen den Fakt, dass Indien sich ständig in dieser regionalen Rivalität mit Pakistan befindet, nicht mehr in Ordnung ist. Viele Inder denken, dass das eigentlich Teil der China-Strategie ist.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
That's a good question. But I think it's important to note what they did. They essentially said we're suspending the terms of the agreement of the treaty for now. And so the headline came out that India cut off all water to Pakistan. And that would be pretty dramatic. That's not exactly what happened.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
And in fact, the Indian government doesn't even have dams on the river that could shut off the water to Pakistan. But they do have this important water sharing agreement that dictates who controls what rivers, who can build what kind of dams on what rivers. And it's fairly complex in governing the flow of water from the Himalayas through India into Pakistan.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 10th, 2025: Xi’s Weak Hand: U.S.-China Showdown & India And Pakistan On The Brink
And so what the Indian government was essentially saying is, all the terms of that agreement now are suspended and we're no longer committed to the terms of that agreement. But it doesn't mean that they immediately cut off all the water supply to Pakistan. Now, at some point in the future, they may have dams capable of doing something like that, but that's not the case today.