Jeff Guo

C. Romance.

C. Romance.

C. Romance.

Never too late.

Never too late.

Never too late.

We'll discuss this.

We'll discuss this.

We'll discuss this.

It's like when a new artist comes onto the scene and you're like, oh, this person, they're kind of getting popular. The last time this happened to me was like Chapel Roan, where I was like, oh, my friends are talking about her. Is Chapel Roan a thing? And then there comes a moment where you realize, oh, wait, no, no, no. She really is a thing. She is selling out Lollapalooza. She is everywhere.

It's like when a new artist comes onto the scene and you're like, oh, this person, they're kind of getting popular. The last time this happened to me was like Chapel Roan, where I was like, oh, my friends are talking about her. Is Chapel Roan a thing? And then there comes a moment where you realize, oh, wait, no, no, no. She really is a thing. She is selling out Lollapalooza. She is everywhere.

It's like when a new artist comes onto the scene and you're like, oh, this person, they're kind of getting popular. The last time this happened to me was like Chapel Roan, where I was like, oh, my friends are talking about her. Is Chapel Roan a thing? And then there comes a moment where you realize, oh, wait, no, no, no. She really is a thing. She is selling out Lollapalooza. She is everywhere.

She's on Colbert. And I feel like with the recession, it's kind of like that, too, where you're looking around, you're looking at your own financial situation. You're looking at your friends' financial situation. You're like, oh, like things are not great. Things are not great. Oh yeah. No, no, no. It's a thing. It's a recession.

She's on Colbert. And I feel like with the recession, it's kind of like that, too, where you're looking around, you're looking at your own financial situation. You're looking at your friends' financial situation. You're like, oh, like things are not great. Things are not great. Oh yeah. No, no, no. It's a thing. It's a recession.

She's on Colbert. And I feel like with the recession, it's kind of like that, too, where you're looking around, you're looking at your own financial situation. You're looking at your friends' financial situation. You're like, oh, like things are not great. Things are not great. Oh yeah. No, no, no. It's a thing. It's a recession.

I think you see people buying more of like store brand stuff, like trading down from like Coke to whatever, cola. Yeah, store brands. I feel like that's going to be a big thing if and when or already as we're in this recession. Who knows?

I think you see people buying more of like store brand stuff, like trading down from like Coke to whatever, cola. Yeah, store brands. I feel like that's going to be a big thing if and when or already as we're in this recession. Who knows?

I think you see people buying more of like store brand stuff, like trading down from like Coke to whatever, cola. Yeah, store brands. I feel like that's going to be a big thing if and when or already as we're in this recession. Who knows?

I guess my advice would be stay open to possibilities. I think a lot of the recession scarring, as economists call it, that happened during the last recession happened because people, they couldn't find the right job or they were holding out for the right job and they were not getting the experience that they needed to get them ahead in their careers. And so their careers were set back by

I guess my advice would be stay open to possibilities. I think a lot of the recession scarring, as economists call it, that happened during the last recession happened because people, they couldn't find the right job or they were holding out for the right job and they were not getting the experience that they needed to get them ahead in their careers. And so their careers were set back by

I guess my advice would be stay open to possibilities. I think a lot of the recession scarring, as economists call it, that happened during the last recession happened because people, they couldn't find the right job or they were holding out for the right job and they were not getting the experience that they needed to get them ahead in their careers. And so their careers were set back by

years and years.

years and years.

years and years.

Oh, me too.

Oh, me too.

Oh, me too.

Oh my God, what a luxury.

Oh my God, what a luxury.

Oh my God, what a luxury.

It's going to change the culture, like for sure. Not having access to fast fashion, however you feel about that. Having access to all of these, you know, hobby goods, like cheap watercolors. If you want to learn how to do watercolors, you can get like a $10 watercolor set on Amazon, like that kind of stuff.

It's going to change the culture, like for sure. Not having access to fast fashion, however you feel about that. Having access to all of these, you know, hobby goods, like cheap watercolors. If you want to learn how to do watercolors, you can get like a $10 watercolor set on Amazon, like that kind of stuff.

It's going to change the culture, like for sure. Not having access to fast fashion, however you feel about that. Having access to all of these, you know, hobby goods, like cheap watercolors. If you want to learn how to do watercolors, you can get like a $10 watercolor set on Amazon, like that kind of stuff.

I think that if these tariffs stick around on China, we're going to very quickly realize how many things not only that we don't make here, but that we fundamentally cannot make here. Like the iPhone. I know people have said, oh, we're just going to make iPhones here. Right. Right. Right.

I think that if these tariffs stick around on China, we're going to very quickly realize how many things not only that we don't make here, but that we fundamentally cannot make here. Like the iPhone. I know people have said, oh, we're just going to make iPhones here. Right. Right. Right.

I think that if these tariffs stick around on China, we're going to very quickly realize how many things not only that we don't make here, but that we fundamentally cannot make here. Like the iPhone. I know people have said, oh, we're just going to make iPhones here. Right. Right. Right.

And so I think we're going to very quickly realize through the higher prices and also maybe just the lack of variety of goods and lack of goods like on our store shelves, we're going to realize how truly dependent we are on other countries as they are dependent on us. We are connected.

And so I think we're going to very quickly realize through the higher prices and also maybe just the lack of variety of goods and lack of goods like on our store shelves, we're going to realize how truly dependent we are on other countries as they are dependent on us. We are connected.

And so I think we're going to very quickly realize through the higher prices and also maybe just the lack of variety of goods and lack of goods like on our store shelves, we're going to realize how truly dependent we are on other countries as they are dependent on us. We are connected.

Yes. So one thing that happens in a recession is, you know, people are spending less, right? But that doesn't mean they're spending less on certain things. And sometimes what happens is you see people looking for little luxuries, right?

Yes. So one thing that happens in a recession is, you know, people are spending less, right? But that doesn't mean they're spending less on certain things. And sometimes what happens is you see people looking for little luxuries, right?

Yes. So one thing that happens in a recession is, you know, people are spending less, right? But that doesn't mean they're spending less on certain things. And sometimes what happens is you see people looking for little luxuries, right?

There's something you said, Brittany, I wanted to comment on that I thought was really interesting. So you were talking about this feeling of, well, we're just consumers in America and we don't make things anymore. Like that fundamentally, I think, is an anxiety that many people feel on the left and the right. It's like, is it OK that we don't make stuff here?

There's something you said, Brittany, I wanted to comment on that I thought was really interesting. So you were talking about this feeling of, well, we're just consumers in America and we don't make things anymore. Like that fundamentally, I think, is an anxiety that many people feel on the left and the right. It's like, is it OK that we don't make stuff here?

There's something you said, Brittany, I wanted to comment on that I thought was really interesting. So you were talking about this feeling of, well, we're just consumers in America and we don't make things anymore. Like that fundamentally, I think, is an anxiety that many people feel on the left and the right. It's like, is it OK that we don't make stuff here?

Is it OK that we buy most of our manufactured goods from other countries?

Is it OK that we buy most of our manufactured goods from other countries?

Is it OK that we buy most of our manufactured goods from other countries?

It was so much fun.

It was so much fun.

It was so much fun.

Okay.

Okay.

Okay.

It's okay.

It's okay.

It's okay.

Guys, my algorithm is so deranged. I'm not going to know any of this.

Guys, my algorithm is so deranged. I'm not going to know any of this.

Guys, my algorithm is so deranged. I'm not going to know any of this.

Like they can't afford the big expensive thing, but they're going to buy a little thing just to keep their spirits up and to, you know, make the recession feel less bad.

Like they can't afford the big expensive thing, but they're going to buy a little thing just to keep their spirits up and to, you know, make the recession feel less bad.

Like they can't afford the big expensive thing, but they're going to buy a little thing just to keep their spirits up and to, you know, make the recession feel less bad.

They could be lying.

They could be lying.

They could be lying.

It has to be books. Come on, guys.

It has to be books. Come on, guys.

It has to be books. Come on, guys.

Well, also, books can turn into TV, right? They are the fount of so many ideas. Yeah, yeah, exactly.

Well, also, books can turn into TV, right? They are the fount of so many ideas. Yeah, yeah, exactly.

Well, also, books can turn into TV, right? They are the fount of so many ideas. Yeah, yeah, exactly.

Exactly. But now the story gets weirder because by the 1990s, De Beers had started to lose its diamond monopoly. A bunch of competing diamond mines had opened up. De Beers later had to settle an antitrust lawsuit. So they didn't control the supply of diamonds anymore. But diamond prices still stayed high for decades.

Exactly. But now the story gets weirder because by the 1990s, De Beers had started to lose its diamond monopoly. A bunch of competing diamond mines had opened up. De Beers later had to settle an antitrust lawsuit. So they didn't control the supply of diamonds anymore. But diamond prices still stayed high for decades.

Exactly. But now the story gets weirder because by the 1990s, De Beers had started to lose its diamond monopoly. A bunch of competing diamond mines had opened up. De Beers later had to settle an antitrust lawsuit. So they didn't control the supply of diamonds anymore. But diamond prices still stayed high for decades.

I'm so glad you asked because I called up the expert. Can you just say your name for us and what you do?

I'm so glad you asked because I called up the expert. Can you just say your name for us and what you do?

I'm so glad you asked because I called up the expert. Can you just say your name for us and what you do?

He travels the world visiting mines and factories, collecting data on supply and demand. Paul says right around the time that De Beers was losing control over the supply of diamonds... they found a big new way to juice demand.

He travels the world visiting mines and factories, collecting data on supply and demand. Paul says right around the time that De Beers was losing control over the supply of diamonds... they found a big new way to juice demand.

He travels the world visiting mines and factories, collecting data on supply and demand. Paul says right around the time that De Beers was losing control over the supply of diamonds... they found a big new way to juice demand.

They took the same classic playbook, you know, a diamond is something you give to someone because you love them, all that stuff, and they deployed that playbook in a huge untapped market, a country with more consumers than anywhere else in the world.

They took the same classic playbook, you know, a diamond is something you give to someone because you love them, all that stuff, and they deployed that playbook in a huge untapped market, a country with more consumers than anywhere else in the world.

They took the same classic playbook, you know, a diamond is something you give to someone because you love them, all that stuff, and they deployed that playbook in a huge untapped market, a country with more consumers than anywhere else in the world.

China.

China.

China.

So in large part, thanks to these new Chinese customers buying into the story of diamonds and also buying a lot of diamonds, Paul says diamond prices actually hit a new peak in the 2010s.

So in large part, thanks to these new Chinese customers buying into the story of diamonds and also buying a lot of diamonds, Paul says diamond prices actually hit a new peak in the 2010s.

So in large part, thanks to these new Chinese customers buying into the story of diamonds and also buying a lot of diamonds, Paul says diamond prices actually hit a new peak in the 2010s.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yes, but here's where the diamond story gets even, even weirder. So these high quality lab-grown diamonds, they started hitting the market in a big way about a decade ago. And people did worry at the time, are these going to crash the price of diamonds?

Yes, but here's where the diamond story gets even, even weirder. So these high quality lab-grown diamonds, they started hitting the market in a big way about a decade ago. And people did worry at the time, are these going to crash the price of diamonds?

Yes, but here's where the diamond story gets even, even weirder. So these high quality lab-grown diamonds, they started hitting the market in a big way about a decade ago. And people did worry at the time, are these going to crash the price of diamonds?

But because scientists like Ulrika can actually tell a lab-grown diamond from a natural diamond, instead what happened is the diamond market split into two different markets. So if you look at the market for natural diamonds over the past 10 years, the price has come down maybe 20%.

But because scientists like Ulrika can actually tell a lab-grown diamond from a natural diamond, instead what happened is the diamond market split into two different markets. So if you look at the market for natural diamonds over the past 10 years, the price has come down maybe 20%.

But because scientists like Ulrika can actually tell a lab-grown diamond from a natural diamond, instead what happened is the diamond market split into two different markets. So if you look at the market for natural diamonds over the past 10 years, the price has come down maybe 20%.

Yeah, that is a big part of it. But then you look at the market for lab-grown diamonds, and that has been just on a wild ride. So at first, lab-grown diamonds were pretty expensive. Paul says if you went to the jewelry store, the lab-growns, they were only 10% cheaper than natural diamonds.

Yeah, that is a big part of it. But then you look at the market for lab-grown diamonds, and that has been just on a wild ride. So at first, lab-grown diamonds were pretty expensive. Paul says if you went to the jewelry store, the lab-growns, they were only 10% cheaper than natural diamonds.

Yeah, that is a big part of it. But then you look at the market for lab-grown diamonds, and that has been just on a wild ride. So at first, lab-grown diamonds were pretty expensive. Paul says if you went to the jewelry store, the lab-growns, they were only 10% cheaper than natural diamonds.

Um, I paid $137. What? I mean, it's not a real diamond, right? There's no way. Or is there a way? Hello and welcome to the Planet Money Diamond. I'm Jeff Guo.

Um, I paid $137. What? I mean, it's not a real diamond, right? There's no way. Or is there a way? Hello and welcome to the Planet Money Diamond. I'm Jeff Guo.

Um, I paid $137. What? I mean, it's not a real diamond, right? There's no way. Or is there a way? Hello and welcome to the Planet Money Diamond. I'm Jeff Guo.

So they were piggybacking off the sort of a diamond is forever and super expensive marketing stuff from De Beers.

So they were piggybacking off the sort of a diamond is forever and super expensive marketing stuff from De Beers.

So they were piggybacking off the sort of a diamond is forever and super expensive marketing stuff from De Beers.

Like you remember the marketing for this, Sarah, right?

Like you remember the marketing for this, Sarah, right?

Like you remember the marketing for this, Sarah, right?

Yeah, this is not a blood diamond. This came from a lab. Yeah. But the more and more people that started to buy lab-grown diamonds, the more companies invested in perfecting the technology to make them, to grow them bigger and cheaper. A lot of those breakthroughs were happening in China, since China was already the world leader in making diamonds for industrial purposes.

Yeah, this is not a blood diamond. This came from a lab. Yeah. But the more and more people that started to buy lab-grown diamonds, the more companies invested in perfecting the technology to make them, to grow them bigger and cheaper. A lot of those breakthroughs were happening in China, since China was already the world leader in making diamonds for industrial purposes.

Yeah, this is not a blood diamond. This came from a lab. Yeah. But the more and more people that started to buy lab-grown diamonds, the more companies invested in perfecting the technology to make them, to grow them bigger and cheaper. A lot of those breakthroughs were happening in China, since China was already the world leader in making diamonds for industrial purposes.

So, Sarah, let me show you something that blew my mind. Remember Alibaba, the Chinese website where I bought the Planet Money diamond? Well, they don't just sell diamonds there. Take a look at this page.

So, Sarah, let me show you something that blew my mind. Remember Alibaba, the Chinese website where I bought the Planet Money diamond? Well, they don't just sell diamonds there. Take a look at this page.

So, Sarah, let me show you something that blew my mind. Remember Alibaba, the Chinese website where I bought the Planet Money diamond? Well, they don't just sell diamonds there. Take a look at this page.

Oh, it's a different kind of ice, Sarah. Yeah. This is a chemical vapor deposition machine. This is basically one of those fancy microwaves Ulrich was talking about.

Oh, it's a different kind of ice, Sarah. Yeah. This is a chemical vapor deposition machine. This is basically one of those fancy microwaves Ulrich was talking about.

Oh, it's a different kind of ice, Sarah. Yeah. This is a chemical vapor deposition machine. This is basically one of those fancy microwaves Ulrich was talking about.

I mean, a lot of people did think this was a steal. Paul says over the past couple years, companies in India and China have been buying tons of these kinds of machines, building big new factories. Paul's actually visited some of them.

I mean, a lot of people did think this was a steal. Paul says over the past couple years, companies in India and China have been buying tons of these kinds of machines, building big new factories. Paul's actually visited some of them.

I mean, a lot of people did think this was a steal. Paul says over the past couple years, companies in India and China have been buying tons of these kinds of machines, building big new factories. Paul's actually visited some of them.

All these automated factories with their rows and rows of diamond-making machines led to a huge upswing in the supply of lab-grown diamonds.

All these automated factories with their rows and rows of diamond-making machines led to a huge upswing in the supply of lab-grown diamonds.

All these automated factories with their rows and rows of diamond-making machines led to a huge upswing in the supply of lab-grown diamonds.

Since then, the wholesale price for lab-grown diamonds has absolutely crashed. In just three years, it's fallen like 90%. It's been this cataclysm for the diamond industry. Paul says some lab-grown companies are going bankrupt. Also, you know how diamonds are also used a lot for industrial purposes?

Since then, the wholesale price for lab-grown diamonds has absolutely crashed. In just three years, it's fallen like 90%. It's been this cataclysm for the diamond industry. Paul says some lab-grown companies are going bankrupt. Also, you know how diamonds are also used a lot for industrial purposes?

Since then, the wholesale price for lab-grown diamonds has absolutely crashed. In just three years, it's fallen like 90%. It's been this cataclysm for the diamond industry. Paul says some lab-grown companies are going bankrupt. Also, you know how diamonds are also used a lot for industrial purposes?

Some companies are actually pivoting back to that, just making diamonds for like saw blades and drill bits.

Some companies are actually pivoting back to that, just making diamonds for like saw blades and drill bits.

Some companies are actually pivoting back to that, just making diamonds for like saw blades and drill bits.

They are.

They are.

They are.

Yeah, exactly.

Yeah, exactly.

Yeah, exactly.

Well, you know, I did ask Paul about that.

Well, you know, I did ask Paul about that.

Well, you know, I did ask Paul about that.

$100?

$100?

$100?

Yeah, apparently.

Yeah, apparently.

Yeah, apparently.

I know. Apparently, this is like an open secret in the industry. Literally, nobody that I talked to was surprised at all that I'd somehow managed to buy this diamond for $137. Apparently, it was not even that good of a deal.

I know. Apparently, this is like an open secret in the industry. Literally, nobody that I talked to was surprised at all that I'd somehow managed to buy this diamond for $137. Apparently, it was not even that good of a deal.

I know. Apparently, this is like an open secret in the industry. Literally, nobody that I talked to was surprised at all that I'd somehow managed to buy this diamond for $137. Apparently, it was not even that good of a deal.

Yeah, exactly. That is the biggest mystery in the diamond market right now.

Yeah, exactly. That is the biggest mystery in the diamond market right now.

Yeah, exactly. That is the biggest mystery in the diamond market right now.

Yes, exactly.

Yes, exactly.

Yes, exactly.

Yeah, I know. That's what I'm saying. So this is the big puzzle right now. Because for natural diamonds, the typical markup, like in a retail shop, It's maybe 30%. But for lab-grown diamonds, the markup right now is like 600%.

Yeah, I know. That's what I'm saying. So this is the big puzzle right now. Because for natural diamonds, the typical markup, like in a retail shop, It's maybe 30%. But for lab-grown diamonds, the markup right now is like 600%.

Yeah, I know. That's what I'm saying. So this is the big puzzle right now. Because for natural diamonds, the typical markup, like in a retail shop, It's maybe 30%. But for lab-grown diamonds, the markup right now is like 600%.

Right. But that isn't happening. And there are a couple of theories why. So theory number one is maybe there's collusion, right? Maybe there's some conspiracy among diamond stores to not lower their prices. But there are so many diamond stores, you know, in person. You can also buy them online. So it's kind of hard to imagine that they would all agree to this.

Right. But that isn't happening. And there are a couple of theories why. So theory number one is maybe there's collusion, right? Maybe there's some conspiracy among diamond stores to not lower their prices. But there are so many diamond stores, you know, in person. You can also buy them online. So it's kind of hard to imagine that they would all agree to this.

Right. But that isn't happening. And there are a couple of theories why. So theory number one is maybe there's collusion, right? Maybe there's some conspiracy among diamond stores to not lower their prices. But there are so many diamond stores, you know, in person. You can also buy them online. So it's kind of hard to imagine that they would all agree to this.

Well, today on the show, we're going to answer all of those questions and dive into the economics of sparkly, sparkly things.

Well, today on the show, we're going to answer all of those questions and dive into the economics of sparkly, sparkly things.

Well, today on the show, we're going to answer all of those questions and dive into the economics of sparkly, sparkly things.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. So theory number two. This is about something maybe going on with customers. Think about when you buy a diamond, right? For most people, it's maybe once or twice in your life. So the price of diamonds is... is not like the price of gas. You're not paying attention to it all the time.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. So theory number two. This is about something maybe going on with customers. Think about when you buy a diamond, right? For most people, it's maybe once or twice in your life. So the price of diamonds is... is not like the price of gas. You're not paying attention to it all the time.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. So theory number two. This is about something maybe going on with customers. Think about when you buy a diamond, right? For most people, it's maybe once or twice in your life. So the price of diamonds is... is not like the price of gas. You're not paying attention to it all the time.

You don't know that it's actually $100. Yeah. So part of this is that the price of these lab-grown diamonds has been changing so quickly, the wholesale price. But eventually you would expect consumers to catch on and for the prices to come down.

You don't know that it's actually $100. Yeah. So part of this is that the price of these lab-grown diamonds has been changing so quickly, the wholesale price. But eventually you would expect consumers to catch on and for the prices to come down.

You don't know that it's actually $100. Yeah. So part of this is that the price of these lab-grown diamonds has been changing so quickly, the wholesale price. But eventually you would expect consumers to catch on and for the prices to come down.

Well, unless you believe in the final theory, theory number three. And this goes back to why diamonds are so expensive in the first place. You know, the whole story that De Beers sold us decades ago, how diamonds are supposed to be this expensive symbol of love and affection. So there's a big difference between buying someone an engagement ring that costs $5,000 versus $99.

Well, unless you believe in the final theory, theory number three. And this goes back to why diamonds are so expensive in the first place. You know, the whole story that De Beers sold us decades ago, how diamonds are supposed to be this expensive symbol of love and affection. So there's a big difference between buying someone an engagement ring that costs $5,000 versus $99.

Well, unless you believe in the final theory, theory number three. And this goes back to why diamonds are so expensive in the first place. You know, the whole story that De Beers sold us decades ago, how diamonds are supposed to be this expensive symbol of love and affection. So there's a big difference between buying someone an engagement ring that costs $5,000 versus $99.

Because the market for diamonds, let me tell you, it started to get very, very weird.

Because the market for diamonds, let me tell you, it started to get very, very weird.

Because the market for diamonds, let me tell you, it started to get very, very weird.

Yeah. You know, I think it's just psychologically hard to let go of the idea that a diamond should be expensive. Like, on some level, it just doesn't seem right that you can just order a diamond like this for $137. I mean, just look at it. It's a diamond.

Yeah. You know, I think it's just psychologically hard to let go of the idea that a diamond should be expensive. Like, on some level, it just doesn't seem right that you can just order a diamond like this for $137. I mean, just look at it. It's a diamond.

Yeah. You know, I think it's just psychologically hard to let go of the idea that a diamond should be expensive. Like, on some level, it just doesn't seem right that you can just order a diamond like this for $137. I mean, just look at it. It's a diamond.

Okay. So, Sarah, you know, I did try to embody that mindset. I did try to imagine this diamond as, you know, just a commodity in the cold, hard marketplace world.

Okay. So, Sarah, you know, I did try to embody that mindset. I did try to imagine this diamond as, you know, just a commodity in the cold, hard marketplace world.

Okay. So, Sarah, you know, I did try to embody that mindset. I did try to imagine this diamond as, you know, just a commodity in the cold, hard marketplace world.

Well, okay, okay. Let me tell you one last story. So, when I was in New York, I took our little diamond out for a walk in the Diamond District.

Well, okay, okay. Let me tell you one last story. So, when I was in New York, I took our little diamond out for a walk in the Diamond District.

Well, okay, okay. Let me tell you one last story. So, when I was in New York, I took our little diamond out for a walk in the Diamond District.

The street lamps are shaped like diamonds. It's pretty cool.

The street lamps are shaped like diamonds. It's pretty cool.

The street lamps are shaped like diamonds. It's pretty cool.

the diamond district is this one block in midtown manhattan where like 90 of the diamonds that come to the u.s pass through it's like the ellis island of diamonds i was walking down the street and i saw so many shops selling diamonds but also buying diamonds you guys buy diamonds yeah diamonds yeah where can i i followed this guy wearing a sandwich board it said we buy diamonds we buy gold and he led me to this dark kind of

the diamond district is this one block in midtown manhattan where like 90 of the diamonds that come to the u.s pass through it's like the ellis island of diamonds i was walking down the street and i saw so many shops selling diamonds but also buying diamonds you guys buy diamonds yeah diamonds yeah where can i i followed this guy wearing a sandwich board it said we buy diamonds we buy gold and he led me to this dark kind of

the diamond district is this one block in midtown manhattan where like 90 of the diamonds that come to the u.s pass through it's like the ellis island of diamonds i was walking down the street and i saw so many shops selling diamonds but also buying diamonds you guys buy diamonds yeah diamonds yeah where can i i followed this guy wearing a sandwich board it said we buy diamonds we buy gold and he led me to this dark kind of

dirty stairwell. Just go up the stairs?

dirty stairwell. Just go up the stairs?

dirty stairwell. Just go up the stairs?

Oh, here? Push, push? Okay. I walk in, and the door actually locks behind me. And they have me go into this small back room. The shades were down, and there were these three kind of big-looking guys just sitting around.

Oh, here? Push, push? Okay. I walk in, and the door actually locks behind me. And they have me go into this small back room. The shades were down, and there were these three kind of big-looking guys just sitting around.

Oh, here? Push, push? Okay. I walk in, and the door actually locks behind me. And they have me go into this small back room. The shades were down, and there were these three kind of big-looking guys just sitting around.

This? That's my microphone.

This? That's my microphone.

This? That's my microphone.

The guy behind the desk said his name was George Mooks.

The guy behind the desk said his name was George Mooks.

The guy behind the desk said his name was George Mooks.

All right, all right, all right. Hold on. I handed over the Planet Money diamond. Told him what kind of diamond it was, how many carats.

All right, all right, all right. Hold on. I handed over the Planet Money diamond. Told him what kind of diamond it was, how many carats.

All right, all right, all right. Hold on. I handed over the Planet Money diamond. Told him what kind of diamond it was, how many carats.

You don't even buy lab-grown diamonds.

You don't even buy lab-grown diamonds.

You don't even buy lab-grown diamonds.

No, he didn't even want it. Okay, so you wouldn't even buy this. Not for me, my friend. Not for you.

No, he didn't even want it. Okay, so you wouldn't even buy this. Not for me, my friend. Not for you.

No, he didn't even want it. Okay, so you wouldn't even buy this. Not for me, my friend. Not for you.

But just then, one of the other guys who was watching our conversation gets up from the couch and comes over.

But just then, one of the other guys who was watching our conversation gets up from the couch and comes over.

But just then, one of the other guys who was watching our conversation gets up from the couch and comes over.

Well, I paid $137. I don't care what you paid.

Well, I paid $137. I don't care what you paid.

Well, I paid $137. I don't care what you paid.

You don't think so? Anywhere on the street?

You don't think so? Anywhere on the street?

You don't think so? Anywhere on the street?

Now, this second guy, he said his name was Solomon. No last name. Are you the owner of this?

Now, this second guy, he said his name was Solomon. No last name. Are you the owner of this?

Now, this second guy, he said his name was Solomon. No last name. Are you the owner of this?

CEO?

CEO?

CEO?

I'm a reporter. I'm a reporter.

I'm a reporter. I'm a reporter.

I'm a reporter. I'm a reporter.

Okay. And you know what, Sarah? As I was standing there in that little room, seeing our diamond in the hands of some stranger, I realized something. I realized maybe I didn't want to sell this diamond.

Okay. And you know what, Sarah? As I was standing there in that little room, seeing our diamond in the hands of some stranger, I realized something. I realized maybe I didn't want to sell this diamond.

Okay. And you know what, Sarah? As I was standing there in that little room, seeing our diamond in the hands of some stranger, I realized something. I realized maybe I didn't want to sell this diamond.

Fair enough. Fair enough. Anyway, I got our diamond back from Solomon. All right. Thank you so much. Appreciate it. And I got out of there. Thank you.

Fair enough. Fair enough. Anyway, I got our diamond back from Solomon. All right. Thank you so much. Appreciate it. And I got out of there. Thank you.

Fair enough. Fair enough. Anyway, I got our diamond back from Solomon. All right. Thank you so much. Appreciate it. And I got out of there. Thank you.

Which is why we tried some experiments. So there are like tests you can do at home to see if something's a diamond or not. Do you want to try those?

Which is why we tried some experiments. So there are like tests you can do at home to see if something's a diamond or not. Do you want to try those?

Which is why we tried some experiments. So there are like tests you can do at home to see if something's a diamond or not. Do you want to try those?

I mean, I kind of feel the same way. You know, that's what I was thinking in that room. Like me and this little diamond, we've been through things from the lasers and the liquid nitrogen to our romantic tour of the diamond district. No matter what anyone else says, this diamond is valuable to me. There is a new perk for Planet Money Plus supporters.

I mean, I kind of feel the same way. You know, that's what I was thinking in that room. Like me and this little diamond, we've been through things from the lasers and the liquid nitrogen to our romantic tour of the diamond district. No matter what anyone else says, this diamond is valuable to me. There is a new perk for Planet Money Plus supporters.

I mean, I kind of feel the same way. You know, that's what I was thinking in that room. Like me and this little diamond, we've been through things from the lasers and the liquid nitrogen to our romantic tour of the diamond district. No matter what anyone else says, this diamond is valuable to me. There is a new perk for Planet Money Plus supporters.

You can now listen to some of our classic series from the Planet Money archive, like when we bought some gold to understand why it's been used as money for thousands of years. You can find all five episodes in one playlist, with more playlists coming. If you're already a Planet Money Plus supporter, check them out. Also, thank you. If you're not, sign up at plus.npr.org.

You can now listen to some of our classic series from the Planet Money archive, like when we bought some gold to understand why it's been used as money for thousands of years. You can find all five episodes in one playlist, with more playlists coming. If you're already a Planet Money Plus supporter, check them out. Also, thank you. If you're not, sign up at plus.npr.org.

You can now listen to some of our classic series from the Planet Money archive, like when we bought some gold to understand why it's been used as money for thousands of years. You can find all five episodes in one playlist, with more playlists coming. If you're already a Planet Money Plus supporter, check them out. Also, thank you. If you're not, sign up at plus.npr.org.

You also get bonus episodes, sponsor-free listening, and you know you're supporting the work of Planet Money.

You also get bonus episodes, sponsor-free listening, and you know you're supporting the work of Planet Money.

You also get bonus episodes, sponsor-free listening, and you know you're supporting the work of Planet Money.

Special thanks also to Martin Rappaport. I'm Jeff Guo.

Special thanks also to Martin Rappaport. I'm Jeff Guo.

Special thanks also to Martin Rappaport. I'm Jeff Guo.

Yeah, go for it. You say it, right?

Yeah, go for it. You say it, right?

Yeah, go for it. You say it, right?

This is NPR. Thanks for listening.

This is NPR. Thanks for listening.

This is NPR. Thanks for listening.

They're not like definitive or anything.

They're not like definitive or anything.

They're not like definitive or anything.

You can like get clues. No, not bite it. Don't bite the diamond.

You can like get clues. No, not bite it. Don't bite the diamond.

You can like get clues. No, not bite it. Don't bite the diamond.

Right. Because diamonds, which are made of carbon, they are the hardest naturally occurring substance on Earth.

Right. Because diamonds, which are made of carbon, they are the hardest naturally occurring substance on Earth.

Right. Because diamonds, which are made of carbon, they are the hardest naturally occurring substance on Earth.

What?

What?

What?

Test number two, put a diamond in a glass of water. Diamonds are super dense, so they sink, but fake stones, a lot of them will float.

Test number two, put a diamond in a glass of water. Diamonds are super dense, so they sink, but fake stones, a lot of them will float.

Test number two, put a diamond in a glass of water. Diamonds are super dense, so they sink, but fake stones, a lot of them will float.

All the way to the bottom.

All the way to the bottom.

All the way to the bottom.

Right, so diamonds are incredible conductors of heat, so they're supposed to feel weirdly cool against your skin. Does it feel hot or cold? No. You feel nothing?

Right, so diamonds are incredible conductors of heat, so they're supposed to feel weirdly cool against your skin. Does it feel hot or cold? No. You feel nothing?

Right, so diamonds are incredible conductors of heat, so they're supposed to feel weirdly cool against your skin. Does it feel hot or cold? No. You feel nothing?

Mm-hmm, mm-hmm. I had mailed this thing to her as a kind of proposal to, you know, co-host this episode about this very strange economic mystery. And then more bubble wrap. This package had come from the Chinese e-commerce website Alibaba. Alibaba is the kind of place where you can buy like two dozen lawnmowers straight from the factory.

Mm-hmm, mm-hmm. I had mailed this thing to her as a kind of proposal to, you know, co-host this episode about this very strange economic mystery. And then more bubble wrap. This package had come from the Chinese e-commerce website Alibaba. Alibaba is the kind of place where you can buy like two dozen lawnmowers straight from the factory.

Mm-hmm, mm-hmm. I had mailed this thing to her as a kind of proposal to, you know, co-host this episode about this very strange economic mystery. And then more bubble wrap. This package had come from the Chinese e-commerce website Alibaba. Alibaba is the kind of place where you can buy like two dozen lawnmowers straight from the factory.

No, no, no, no. So do you want to know the real answer, Sarah?

No, no, no, no. So do you want to know the real answer, Sarah?

No, no, no, no. So do you want to know the real answer, Sarah?

Well, no, no, no. First, I got to tell you a story about how I figured it out.

Well, no, no, no. First, I got to tell you a story about how I figured it out.

Well, no, no, no. First, I got to tell you a story about how I figured it out.

Okay, so before I ever mailed you the Planet Money Mystery Diamond, I actually took it on a couple adventures. We started out at the GIA, the Gemological Institute of America. They're like the diamond experts. So a couple weeks ago, okay, we're walking into the GIA. I went to one of their labs in Midtown Manhattan. Wow, this lobby is really pretty.

Okay, so before I ever mailed you the Planet Money Mystery Diamond, I actually took it on a couple adventures. We started out at the GIA, the Gemological Institute of America. They're like the diamond experts. So a couple weeks ago, okay, we're walking into the GIA. I went to one of their labs in Midtown Manhattan. Wow, this lobby is really pretty.

Okay, so before I ever mailed you the Planet Money Mystery Diamond, I actually took it on a couple adventures. We started out at the GIA, the Gemological Institute of America. They're like the diamond experts. So a couple weeks ago, okay, we're walking into the GIA. I went to one of their labs in Midtown Manhattan. Wow, this lobby is really pretty.

For the diamond industry, the GIA is like the temple of truth. It's where people take their diamonds to get poked and prodded and given a grade by expert gemologists. I met their executive vice president, Tom Moses. Hi. Hi, Tom Moses. Hi. Who was going to take me behind the scenes, which they don't usually do because the GIA inspects millions and millions of diamonds a year.

For the diamond industry, the GIA is like the temple of truth. It's where people take their diamonds to get poked and prodded and given a grade by expert gemologists. I met their executive vice president, Tom Moses. Hi. Hi, Tom Moses. Hi. Who was going to take me behind the scenes, which they don't usually do because the GIA inspects millions and millions of diamonds a year.

For the diamond industry, the GIA is like the temple of truth. It's where people take their diamonds to get poked and prodded and given a grade by expert gemologists. I met their executive vice president, Tom Moses. Hi. Hi, Tom Moses. Hi. Who was going to take me behind the scenes, which they don't usually do because the GIA inspects millions and millions of diamonds a year.

So let's just say we were in the presence of a lot of dollar signs. And I've noticed we have a security guard following us. Yes, we do. Is that just for me? Yeah, just for you. No, no, I'm kidding. I'm kidding. Tom kind of was not kidding. The whole time I was there, I had to have a security escort.

So let's just say we were in the presence of a lot of dollar signs. And I've noticed we have a security guard following us. Yes, we do. Is that just for me? Yeah, just for you. No, no, I'm kidding. I'm kidding. Tom kind of was not kidding. The whole time I was there, I had to have a security escort.

So let's just say we were in the presence of a lot of dollar signs. And I've noticed we have a security guard following us. Yes, we do. Is that just for me? Yeah, just for you. No, no, I'm kidding. I'm kidding. Tom kind of was not kidding. The whole time I was there, I had to have a security escort.

Anyway, Tom introduced me to the scientist who was going to be taking a look at the Planet Money mystery diamond.

Anyway, Tom introduced me to the scientist who was going to be taking a look at the Planet Money mystery diamond.

Anyway, Tom introduced me to the scientist who was going to be taking a look at the Planet Money mystery diamond.

Dr. Ulrika Dannens-Janensen has a PhD in physics, specifically in diamonds and how to identify them. So if anybody in the world could tell us what we had, whether it was a real diamond or a cubic zirconia or some newfangled futuristic kind of fake diamond, it was going to be Dr. Ulrika. Should we talk about this mystery diamond that I bought?

Dr. Ulrika Dannens-Janensen has a PhD in physics, specifically in diamonds and how to identify them. So if anybody in the world could tell us what we had, whether it was a real diamond or a cubic zirconia or some newfangled futuristic kind of fake diamond, it was going to be Dr. Ulrika. Should we talk about this mystery diamond that I bought?

Dr. Ulrika Dannens-Janensen has a PhD in physics, specifically in diamonds and how to identify them. So if anybody in the world could tell us what we had, whether it was a real diamond or a cubic zirconia or some newfangled futuristic kind of fake diamond, it was going to be Dr. Ulrika. Should we talk about this mystery diamond that I bought?

All right. Um... I've been showing it off, so it might be a little smudged.

All right. Um... I've been showing it off, so it might be a little smudged.

All right. Um... I've been showing it off, so it might be a little smudged.

On the table in front of us was a large microscope hooked up to a television.

On the table in front of us was a large microscope hooked up to a television.

On the table in front of us was a large microscope hooked up to a television.

Sorry, I think that's some cat hair.

Sorry, I think that's some cat hair.

Sorry, I think that's some cat hair.

My life is covered in cat hair. So after getting the cat hair off and the fingerprints of basically all my friends and family, Ulrika got her first good look at the Planet Money Mystery Diamond.

My life is covered in cat hair. So after getting the cat hair off and the fingerprints of basically all my friends and family, Ulrika got her first good look at the Planet Money Mystery Diamond.

My life is covered in cat hair. So after getting the cat hair off and the fingerprints of basically all my friends and family, Ulrika got her first good look at the Planet Money Mystery Diamond.

Oh, that's good, right?

Oh, that's good, right?

Oh, that's good, right?

Olga said, yeah, if this is a diamond, it is a very nice diamond. And to figure out if it is a diamond, she was going to pull out all the stops for us, run all of these fancy scientific tests. So she takes me to where the GIA keeps all of its most advanced equipment. It kind of looks like a room where NASA might assemble satellites. Like the walls are white, the ceilings are white.

Olga said, yeah, if this is a diamond, it is a very nice diamond. And to figure out if it is a diamond, she was going to pull out all the stops for us, run all of these fancy scientific tests. So she takes me to where the GIA keeps all of its most advanced equipment. It kind of looks like a room where NASA might assemble satellites. Like the walls are white, the ceilings are white.

Olga said, yeah, if this is a diamond, it is a very nice diamond. And to figure out if it is a diamond, she was going to pull out all the stops for us, run all of these fancy scientific tests. So she takes me to where the GIA keeps all of its most advanced equipment. It kind of looks like a room where NASA might assemble satellites. Like the walls are white, the ceilings are white.

There's this HVAC system that's filtering out every stray pinpoint of dust. And in one corner... There was this big beige cabinet. It was called a spectrophotometer. This machine was going to tell us what kinds of atoms the Planet Money mystery diamond was made of. A real diamond, of course, is made of pure carbon.

There's this HVAC system that's filtering out every stray pinpoint of dust. And in one corner... There was this big beige cabinet. It was called a spectrophotometer. This machine was going to tell us what kinds of atoms the Planet Money mystery diamond was made of. A real diamond, of course, is made of pure carbon.

There's this HVAC system that's filtering out every stray pinpoint of dust. And in one corner... There was this big beige cabinet. It was called a spectrophotometer. This machine was going to tell us what kinds of atoms the Planet Money mystery diamond was made of. A real diamond, of course, is made of pure carbon.

Now, to get our diamond ready for the big test, apparently we had to make it really, really cold.

Now, to get our diamond ready for the big test, apparently we had to make it really, really cold.

Now, to get our diamond ready for the big test, apparently we had to make it really, really cold.

No one told me about this.

No one told me about this.

No one told me about this.

Ulrika has this bubbling thermos of liquid nitrogen. She pours it over our mystery diamond, which is sitting in a little dish, and she loads it into the machine. Inside, a bunch of lasers turn on, and they're just like blasting our sample, like pew, pew, pew, pew, pew. Meanwhile, Ulrika is watching a monitor nearby.

Ulrika has this bubbling thermos of liquid nitrogen. She pours it over our mystery diamond, which is sitting in a little dish, and she loads it into the machine. Inside, a bunch of lasers turn on, and they're just like blasting our sample, like pew, pew, pew, pew, pew. Meanwhile, Ulrika is watching a monitor nearby.

Ulrika has this bubbling thermos of liquid nitrogen. She pours it over our mystery diamond, which is sitting in a little dish, and she loads it into the machine. Inside, a bunch of lasers turn on, and they're just like blasting our sample, like pew, pew, pew, pew, pew. Meanwhile, Ulrika is watching a monitor nearby.

So the screen was showing this squiggly graph. It looked like a bunch of mountain peaks. And somewhere in those peaks was the answer. Ulrika points to one of them.

So the screen was showing this squiggly graph. It looked like a bunch of mountain peaks. And somewhere in those peaks was the answer. Ulrika points to one of them.

So the screen was showing this squiggly graph. It looked like a bunch of mountain peaks. And somewhere in those peaks was the answer. Ulrika points to one of them.

But what I had bought is a lot smaller.

But what I had bought is a lot smaller.

But what I had bought is a lot smaller.

She says that specific peak in that specific place, it tells us we have carbon atoms. Carbon atoms arranged in a very special way.

She says that specific peak in that specific place, it tells us we have carbon atoms. Carbon atoms arranged in a very special way.

She says that specific peak in that specific place, it tells us we have carbon atoms. Carbon atoms arranged in a very special way.

Okay, so, okay, confirmed. We have a diamond.

Okay, so, okay, confirmed. We have a diamond.

Okay, so, okay, confirmed. We have a diamond.

Yes.

Yes.

Yes.

Yes.

Yes.

Yes.

Sarah, it is official. The Planet Money diamond is a real diamond. This is, this is a twist.

Sarah, it is official. The Planet Money diamond is a real diamond. This is, this is a twist.

Sarah, it is official. The Planet Money diamond is a real diamond. This is, this is a twist.

And a lot shinier.

And a lot shinier.

And a lot shinier.

OK, OK. So it is true that for the last 10, 15 years, people have been growing these beautiful diamonds in the lab. But I just want to be clear, natural diamonds and lab grown diamonds, they are both real diamonds. They are chemically the exact same thing.

OK, OK. So it is true that for the last 10, 15 years, people have been growing these beautiful diamonds in the lab. But I just want to be clear, natural diamonds and lab grown diamonds, they are both real diamonds. They are chemically the exact same thing.

OK, OK. So it is true that for the last 10, 15 years, people have been growing these beautiful diamonds in the lab. But I just want to be clear, natural diamonds and lab grown diamonds, they are both real diamonds. They are chemically the exact same thing.

Right. So a natural diamond like this could sell for maybe $5,000. But if it's lab-grown, the price is more like $1,000. And Ulrika's machines, they could actually tell us exactly what we had. Because every diamond, it turns out, is unique. It doesn't matter if they look flawless to the naked eye. Ulrika says they all have these little defects, these little impurities, little imperfections.

Right. So a natural diamond like this could sell for maybe $5,000. But if it's lab-grown, the price is more like $1,000. And Ulrika's machines, they could actually tell us exactly what we had. Because every diamond, it turns out, is unique. It doesn't matter if they look flawless to the naked eye. Ulrika says they all have these little defects, these little impurities, little imperfections.

Right. So a natural diamond like this could sell for maybe $5,000. But if it's lab-grown, the price is more like $1,000. And Ulrika's machines, they could actually tell us exactly what we had. Because every diamond, it turns out, is unique. It doesn't matter if they look flawless to the naked eye. Ulrika says they all have these little defects, these little impurities, little imperfections.

Like a fingerprint or like freckles.

Like a fingerprint or like freckles.

Like a fingerprint or like freckles.

So these imperfections can tell you how a diamond came to be. And when Ulrika examined our diamond, she saw three really telling imperfections. Number one, she saw when she looked at it under the microscope.

So these imperfections can tell you how a diamond came to be. And when Ulrika examined our diamond, she saw three really telling imperfections. Number one, she saw when she looked at it under the microscope.

So these imperfections can tell you how a diamond came to be. And when Ulrika examined our diamond, she saw three really telling imperfections. Number one, she saw when she looked at it under the microscope.

Oh, I see them. Oh, but they're so small. So these specks, most diamonds have them, are bits of stuff from the environment that get trapped inside the diamond when it's born, whether that's deep underground or in a lab. Now, the second imperfection she saw was when our diamond was in that fancy liquid nitrogen laser machine. Because no diamond is like 100, 100% carbon.

Oh, I see them. Oh, but they're so small. So these specks, most diamonds have them, are bits of stuff from the environment that get trapped inside the diamond when it's born, whether that's deep underground or in a lab. Now, the second imperfection she saw was when our diamond was in that fancy liquid nitrogen laser machine. Because no diamond is like 100, 100% carbon.

Oh, I see them. Oh, but they're so small. So these specks, most diamonds have them, are bits of stuff from the environment that get trapped inside the diamond when it's born, whether that's deep underground or in a lab. Now, the second imperfection she saw was when our diamond was in that fancy liquid nitrogen laser machine. Because no diamond is like 100, 100% carbon.

A little while back, I bought something online that, frankly, seemed too good to be true. And after seeing this thing with my own eyes, I knew I had to share it with somebody. My Planet Money colleague, Sarah Gonzalez.

A little while back, I bought something online that, frankly, seemed too good to be true. And after seeing this thing with my own eyes, I knew I had to share it with somebody. My Planet Money colleague, Sarah Gonzalez.

A little while back, I bought something online that, frankly, seemed too good to be true. And after seeing this thing with my own eyes, I knew I had to share it with somebody. My Planet Money colleague, Sarah Gonzalez.

Sarah.

Sarah.

Sarah.

Most natural diamonds, they have a little bit of nitrogen in them. But our diamond, it had something else. It had tiny traces of silicon in it. You can see it on the chart.

Most natural diamonds, they have a little bit of nitrogen in them. But our diamond, it had something else. It had tiny traces of silicon in it. You can see it on the chart.

Most natural diamonds, they have a little bit of nitrogen in them. But our diamond, it had something else. It had tiny traces of silicon in it. You can see it on the chart.

And both of these clues, they were pointing in the same direction.

And both of these clues, they were pointing in the same direction.

And both of these clues, they were pointing in the same direction.

According to the website that I bought it off of, that is a real diamond. It is a one carat, colorless, ideal cut diamond. It's basically an engagement ring quality diamond. That's what they told me.

According to the website that I bought it off of, that is a real diamond. It is a one carat, colorless, ideal cut diamond. It's basically an engagement ring quality diamond. That's what they told me.

According to the website that I bought it off of, that is a real diamond. It is a one carat, colorless, ideal cut diamond. It's basically an engagement ring quality diamond. That's what they told me.

That's right.

That's right.

That's right.

She is 100, 1000% sure. She said the shape of those little black specks and the fact that they were silicon were Those are really only things you see in lab-grown diamonds. Okay, but now, here is the coolest part.

She is 100, 1000% sure. She said the shape of those little black specks and the fact that they were silicon were Those are really only things you see in lab-grown diamonds. Okay, but now, here is the coolest part.

She is 100, 1000% sure. She said the shape of those little black specks and the fact that they were silicon were Those are really only things you see in lab-grown diamonds. Okay, but now, here is the coolest part.

There is one more imperfection that Orca noticed, and the moment she saw it, she was like, oh, not only can I tell you this is a lab-grown diamond, I can tell you exactly how they grew it.

There is one more imperfection that Orca noticed, and the moment she saw it, she was like, oh, not only can I tell you this is a lab-grown diamond, I can tell you exactly how they grew it.

There is one more imperfection that Orca noticed, and the moment she saw it, she was like, oh, not only can I tell you this is a lab-grown diamond, I can tell you exactly how they grew it.

Is it amazing? There are actually two different ways that people create large diamonds in the lab. So one, you try to mimic how a diamond is made in nature. So you get this giant press. Some of them are 20 feet tall. And you just like squish some carbon at really high temperatures. But there's also a newer method that's becoming really popular.

Is it amazing? There are actually two different ways that people create large diamonds in the lab. So one, you try to mimic how a diamond is made in nature. So you get this giant press. Some of them are 20 feet tall. And you just like squish some carbon at really high temperatures. But there's also a newer method that's becoming really popular.

Is it amazing? There are actually two different ways that people create large diamonds in the lab. So one, you try to mimic how a diamond is made in nature. So you get this giant press. Some of them are 20 feet tall. And you just like squish some carbon at really high temperatures. But there's also a newer method that's becoming really popular.

It involves growing diamonds layer by layer in what Ulrika says is basically a fancy microwave oven. So when Ulrika put our diamond under this special blacklight and zoomed way in, she could actually see traces of that process.

It involves growing diamonds layer by layer in what Ulrika says is basically a fancy microwave oven. So when Ulrika put our diamond under this special blacklight and zoomed way in, she could actually see traces of that process.

It involves growing diamonds layer by layer in what Ulrika says is basically a fancy microwave oven. So when Ulrika put our diamond under this special blacklight and zoomed way in, she could actually see traces of that process.

Under the blacklight, you could see a very faint line going through the middle of our diamond.

Under the blacklight, you could see a very faint line going through the middle of our diamond.

Under the blacklight, you could see a very faint line going through the middle of our diamond.

So you're telling me that the top half and the bottom half of the diamond grew at different stages.

So you're telling me that the top half and the bottom half of the diamond grew at different stages.

So you're telling me that the top half and the bottom half of the diamond grew at different stages.

We have a Kit Kat diamond. It's got, like, layers to it.

We have a Kit Kat diamond. It's got, like, layers to it.

We have a Kit Kat diamond. It's got, like, layers to it.

I just want to be clear. I just want to be clear here, okay? The layers are invisible. You cannot see it with the naked eye. This is a high-quality diamond. That happens to be lab-grown.

I just want to be clear. I just want to be clear here, okay? The layers are invisible. You cannot see it with the naked eye. This is a high-quality diamond. That happens to be lab-grown.

I just want to be clear. I just want to be clear here, okay? The layers are invisible. You cannot see it with the naked eye. This is a high-quality diamond. That happens to be lab-grown.

Yeah. So that, that is the final mystery we're going to try to figure out. After the break, we're talking about the bizarre economics of the diamond market. So before we talk about how we were able to get a diamond for $137, let's just take a step back to talk about where diamond prices in general even come from.

Yeah. So that, that is the final mystery we're going to try to figure out. After the break, we're talking about the bizarre economics of the diamond market. So before we talk about how we were able to get a diamond for $137, let's just take a step back to talk about where diamond prices in general even come from.

Yeah. So that, that is the final mystery we're going to try to figure out. After the break, we're talking about the bizarre economics of the diamond market. So before we talk about how we were able to get a diamond for $137, let's just take a step back to talk about where diamond prices in general even come from.

Yeah, exactly. Like the diamond industry is built around this kind of circular idea that people want diamonds because they're valuable, which makes diamonds valuable because people want them because they're valuable. And the deeper you get into the economics of diamonds, the weirder it gets. So to understand how our planet money diamond fits into all of this, we should start with natural diamonds.

Yeah, exactly. Like the diamond industry is built around this kind of circular idea that people want diamonds because they're valuable, which makes diamonds valuable because people want them because they're valuable. And the deeper you get into the economics of diamonds, the weirder it gets. So to understand how our planet money diamond fits into all of this, we should start with natural diamonds.

Yeah, exactly. Like the diamond industry is built around this kind of circular idea that people want diamonds because they're valuable, which makes diamonds valuable because people want them because they're valuable. And the deeper you get into the economics of diamonds, the weirder it gets. So to understand how our planet money diamond fits into all of this, we should start with natural diamonds.

Like, why are natural diamonds so expensive? The modern version of that story begins with... De Beers.

Like, why are natural diamonds so expensive? The modern version of that story begins with... De Beers.

Like, why are natural diamonds so expensive? The modern version of that story begins with... De Beers.

Yeah. So for many, many decades, the De Beers company, they controlled almost all the world's diamond mines. So they were able to keep the supply of diamonds really low. But more importantly, like you said, in the 1930s and 40s, De Beers launched maybe the most genius marketing campaign in history.

Yeah. So for many, many decades, the De Beers company, they controlled almost all the world's diamond mines. So they were able to keep the supply of diamonds really low. But more importantly, like you said, in the 1930s and 40s, De Beers launched maybe the most genius marketing campaign in history.

Yeah. So for many, many decades, the De Beers company, they controlled almost all the world's diamond mines. So they were able to keep the supply of diamonds really low. But more importantly, like you said, in the 1930s and 40s, De Beers launched maybe the most genius marketing campaign in history.

You better have that diamond ring if you want to get engaged.

You better have that diamond ring if you want to get engaged.

You better have that diamond ring if you want to get engaged.

It's forever. Yeah. So that marketing campaign really, really juiced diamond demand.

It's forever. Yeah. So that marketing campaign really, really juiced diamond demand.

It's forever. Yeah. So that marketing campaign really, really juiced diamond demand.

Now, the retail price for a diamond like this, it depends. If it's a natural diamond, we're talking $5,000. If it's a lab-grown diamond, we're still talking around $1,000. But that was not what Alibaba was charging.

Now, the retail price for a diamond like this, it depends. If it's a natural diamond, we're talking $5,000. If it's a lab-grown diamond, we're still talking around $1,000. But that was not what Alibaba was charging.

Now, the retail price for a diamond like this, it depends. If it's a natural diamond, we're talking $5,000. If it's a lab-grown diamond, we're still talking around $1,000. But that was not what Alibaba was charging.

Well, our star is supposed to be that ideal interest rate for the economy in the long term.

Well, our star is supposed to be that ideal interest rate for the economy in the long term.

Well, our star is supposed to be that ideal interest rate for the economy in the long term.

Yeah. It's like a reflection of just your natural metabolism. And nobody actually knows what our star is for the economy. It's not something you can measure. It's more of something you predict. It's based on what you think the future economy will look like, whether you think it'll run hot because of

Yeah. It's like a reflection of just your natural metabolism. And nobody actually knows what our star is for the economy. It's not something you can measure. It's more of something you predict. It's based on what you think the future economy will look like, whether you think it'll run hot because of

Yeah. It's like a reflection of just your natural metabolism. And nobody actually knows what our star is for the economy. It's not something you can measure. It's more of something you predict. It's based on what you think the future economy will look like, whether you think it'll run hot because of

a lot of government spending or a lot of gains in productivity, or if you think it'll run cold because of, I don't know, aging populations or, you know, lack of opportunities for growth.

a lot of government spending or a lot of gains in productivity, or if you think it'll run cold because of, I don't know, aging populations or, you know, lack of opportunities for growth.

a lot of government spending or a lot of gains in productivity, or if you think it'll run cold because of, I don't know, aging populations or, you know, lack of opportunities for growth.

Well, because something really interesting is happening to our star right now. You know, before the pandemic, a lot of people thought that our star was around like one to two percent. But after the chaos of the past year, the past couple of years, really, people right now, they're really not sure what the future holds. They're arguing, is our star maybe like three percent?

Well, because something really interesting is happening to our star right now. You know, before the pandemic, a lot of people thought that our star was around like one to two percent. But after the chaos of the past year, the past couple of years, really, people right now, they're really not sure what the future holds. They're arguing, is our star maybe like three percent?

Well, because something really interesting is happening to our star right now. You know, before the pandemic, a lot of people thought that our star was around like one to two percent. But after the chaos of the past year, the past couple of years, really, people right now, they're really not sure what the future holds. They're arguing, is our star maybe like three percent?

Maybe it's going to go up to four percent.

Maybe it's going to go up to four percent.

Maybe it's going to go up to four percent.

Yes, yes. Our star is basically everything. And right now we are at this kind of weird inflection point, I feel like, for the whole world. So in 2025, I think the big story is going to be What is our star?

Yes, yes. Our star is basically everything. And right now we are at this kind of weird inflection point, I feel like, for the whole world. So in 2025, I think the big story is going to be What is our star?

Yes, yes. Our star is basically everything. And right now we are at this kind of weird inflection point, I feel like, for the whole world. So in 2025, I think the big story is going to be What is our star?

I have got a nice cold beverage. Hint, hint. And I'll be talking about our consumer feelings.

I have got a nice cold beverage. Hint, hint. And I'll be talking about our consumer feelings.

I have got a nice cold beverage. Hint, hint. And I'll be talking about our consumer feelings.

Kenny's subconscious, thwarting him again.

Kenny's subconscious, thwarting him again.

Kenny's subconscious, thwarting him again.

That's okay. The way I would think about it, the way I would challenge our listeners to think about it is when in 40, 50 years, I don't know, when you're telling your grandchildren, man, 2024 was about blank. Are they going to say 2024 was about? Bitcoin? They might. Bitcoin?

That's okay. The way I would think about it, the way I would challenge our listeners to think about it is when in 40, 50 years, I don't know, when you're telling your grandchildren, man, 2024 was about blank. Are they going to say 2024 was about? Bitcoin? They might. Bitcoin?

That's okay. The way I would think about it, the way I would challenge our listeners to think about it is when in 40, 50 years, I don't know, when you're telling your grandchildren, man, 2024 was about blank. Are they going to say 2024 was about? Bitcoin? They might. Bitcoin?

Actually, guys, before we get started, I'm actually a little parched, so just give me one second. I'm serious. Actually, I just need to get something real quick. Hold on.

Actually, guys, before we get started, I'm actually a little parched, so just give me one second. I'm serious. Actually, I just need to get something real quick. Hold on.

Actually, guys, before we get started, I'm actually a little parched, so just give me one second. I'm serious. Actually, I just need to get something real quick. Hold on.

No one said that.

No one said that.

No one said that.

I'm back. I'm back. I'm back. My apologies to Kenny's children. They're wonderful. So you can pay the daycare fee when we're late. Okay. So now with my ice cold beverage in hand, I can tell you about my indicator of the year, which is the beverage curve, which to be fair has nothing actually to do with beverages at all.

I'm back. I'm back. I'm back. My apologies to Kenny's children. They're wonderful. So you can pay the daycare fee when we're late. Okay. So now with my ice cold beverage in hand, I can tell you about my indicator of the year, which is the beverage curve, which to be fair has nothing actually to do with beverages at all.

I'm back. I'm back. I'm back. My apologies to Kenny's children. They're wonderful. So you can pay the daycare fee when we're late. Okay. So now with my ice cold beverage in hand, I can tell you about my indicator of the year, which is the beverage curve, which to be fair has nothing actually to do with beverages at all.

It's not even spelled the same, but anyway, someone want to start the clock.

It's not even spelled the same, but anyway, someone want to start the clock.

It's not even spelled the same, but anyway, someone want to start the clock.

Ah, OK. So the beverage curve, which is named after the economist William Beverage, is the name that economists have for the relationship between the rate of unemployment and the rate of job openings. So, for instance, usually when job openings go down, it's harder to find jobs and unemployment goes up.

Ah, OK. So the beverage curve, which is named after the economist William Beverage, is the name that economists have for the relationship between the rate of unemployment and the rate of job openings. So, for instance, usually when job openings go down, it's harder to find jobs and unemployment goes up.

Ah, OK. So the beverage curve, which is named after the economist William Beverage, is the name that economists have for the relationship between the rate of unemployment and the rate of job openings. So, for instance, usually when job openings go down, it's harder to find jobs and unemployment goes up.

But, but, this past year, as the Fed was pumping the brakes on the economy, something weird was happening. Companies were posting fewer and fewer job openings, but unemployment wasn't really going up that much. In other words, the beverage curve seemed kind of broken.

But, but, this past year, as the Fed was pumping the brakes on the economy, something weird was happening. Companies were posting fewer and fewer job openings, but unemployment wasn't really going up that much. In other words, the beverage curve seemed kind of broken.

But, but, this past year, as the Fed was pumping the brakes on the economy, something weird was happening. Companies were posting fewer and fewer job openings, but unemployment wasn't really going up that much. In other words, the beverage curve seemed kind of broken.

And that is a good thing, because it means that the Fed has been able to tame inflation without inflicting a lot of painful unemployment on everybody. It's almost as if a lot of those disappearing job openings were just like, You know? Just like, you know, the froth on top of a carbonated beverage. Get it? Get it? Okay, anyway.

And that is a good thing, because it means that the Fed has been able to tame inflation without inflicting a lot of painful unemployment on everybody. It's almost as if a lot of those disappearing job openings were just like, You know? Just like, you know, the froth on top of a carbonated beverage. Get it? Get it? Okay, anyway.

And that is a good thing, because it means that the Fed has been able to tame inflation without inflicting a lot of painful unemployment on everybody. It's almost as if a lot of those disappearing job openings were just like, You know? Just like, you know, the froth on top of a carbonated beverage. Get it? Get it? Okay, anyway.

To me, that is the big story of 2024, the broken beverage curve that helped us get to this off-landing. This off-landing.

To me, that is the big story of 2024, the broken beverage curve that helped us get to this off-landing. This off-landing.

To me, that is the big story of 2024, the broken beverage curve that helped us get to this off-landing. This off-landing.

Well, we almost got to this off-landing.

Well, we almost got to this off-landing.

Well, we almost got to this off-landing.

And sitting in front of a chemical reaction.

And sitting in front of a chemical reaction.

And sitting in front of a chemical reaction.

Whoa. Not that big, Jeff. Jeez. You know, it's not that good to have indoor fires because of the CO2. It makes people drowsy. And it also inhibits cognition.

Whoa. Not that big, Jeff. Jeez. You know, it's not that good to have indoor fires because of the CO2. It makes people drowsy. And it also inhibits cognition.

Whoa. Not that big, Jeff. Jeez. You know, it's not that good to have indoor fires because of the CO2. It makes people drowsy. And it also inhibits cognition.

And Adrian, you trust the wisdom of the crowds is what you're saying.

And Adrian, you trust the wisdom of the crowds is what you're saying.

And Adrian, you trust the wisdom of the crowds is what you're saying.

I think, you know, we can all agree that 2024 was a big year, right? A pivotal year, the year the path of history took a turn. The US had an important presidential election. The Fed more or less declared victory on inflation. Taylor Swift wrapped up her world tour. So there's no doubt, right, that we live in a different world now.

I think, you know, we can all agree that 2024 was a big year, right? A pivotal year, the year the path of history took a turn. The US had an important presidential election. The Fed more or less declared victory on inflation. Taylor Swift wrapped up her world tour. So there's no doubt, right, that we live in a different world now.

I think, you know, we can all agree that 2024 was a big year, right? A pivotal year, the year the path of history took a turn. The US had an important presidential election. The Fed more or less declared victory on inflation. Taylor Swift wrapped up her world tour. So there's no doubt, right, that we live in a different world now.

And the big question going into 2025 is just how much has that world changed? And that is why my indicator for 2025 is the indicator of all indicators, our star.

And the big question going into 2025 is just how much has that world changed? And that is why my indicator for 2025 is the indicator of all indicators, our star.

And the big question going into 2025 is just how much has that world changed? And that is why my indicator for 2025 is the indicator of all indicators, our star.

And so just to give like a brief explanation, you know how like the Fed sets interest rates, right? Interest rates are like a thermostat for the economy, basically. If the economy is running too hot, the Fed will raise interest rates to try to cool it down. And if the economy is running too cold, then the Fed will lower interest rates to try to stimulate it.

And so just to give like a brief explanation, you know how like the Fed sets interest rates, right? Interest rates are like a thermostat for the economy, basically. If the economy is running too hot, the Fed will raise interest rates to try to cool it down. And if the economy is running too cold, then the Fed will lower interest rates to try to stimulate it.

And so just to give like a brief explanation, you know how like the Fed sets interest rates, right? Interest rates are like a thermostat for the economy, basically. If the economy is running too hot, the Fed will raise interest rates to try to cool it down. And if the economy is running too cold, then the Fed will lower interest rates to try to stimulate it.

This is Planet Money from NPR. Every time I've called up LaVon and Craig Griffune, they've been busy with grandparent chores. Well, we have two babies today.

This is Planet Money from NPR. Every time I've called up LaVon and Craig Griffune, they've been busy with grandparent chores. Well, we have two babies today.

This is Planet Money from NPR. Every time I've called up LaVon and Craig Griffune, they've been busy with grandparent chores. Well, we have two babies today.

He and his team jump in to try to figure out what to do. They are going to need money. They need to move fast. It would be kind of maybe helpful to not have to go to Congress for this.

He and his team jump in to try to figure out what to do. They are going to need money. They need to move fast. It would be kind of maybe helpful to not have to go to Congress for this.

He and his team jump in to try to figure out what to do. They are going to need money. They need to move fast. It would be kind of maybe helpful to not have to go to Congress for this.

Now, using the CCC to try to save hundreds of thousands of farmers being hit with trade damage was a bit unusual. The fund had mostly been used to help farmers after a hurricane or they gave out loans or They paid for trade missions from the fund.

Now, using the CCC to try to save hundreds of thousands of farmers being hit with trade damage was a bit unusual. The fund had mostly been used to help farmers after a hurricane or they gave out loans or They paid for trade missions from the fund.

Now, using the CCC to try to save hundreds of thousands of farmers being hit with trade damage was a bit unusual. The fund had mostly been used to help farmers after a hurricane or they gave out loans or They paid for trade missions from the fund.

Rob and his team have to figure out how to best distribute the money. And it's a pretty chaotic moment. There are trade disputes going on with several different countries. But there are some findable outables, like roughly how many farmers are going to be impacted.

Rob and his team have to figure out how to best distribute the money. And it's a pretty chaotic moment. There are trade disputes going on with several different countries. But there are some findable outables, like roughly how many farmers are going to be impacted.

Rob and his team have to figure out how to best distribute the money. And it's a pretty chaotic moment. There are trade disputes going on with several different countries. But there are some findable outables, like roughly how many farmers are going to be impacted.

Right. Like, what if the USDA gives out a bunch of taxpayer money, the trade war ends, and the farmers didn't actually need all that money after all?

Right. Like, what if the USDA gives out a bunch of taxpayer money, the trade war ends, and the farmers didn't actually need all that money after all?

Right. Like, what if the USDA gives out a bunch of taxpayer money, the trade war ends, and the farmers didn't actually need all that money after all?

They have to be thoughtful about it. They don't want to send out too much taxpayer money if the trade war suddenly gets resolved. And they don't want to mess up the agricultural markets by accidentally incentivizing farmers to grow, say, soybeans instead of cotton just to collect a check. In total, they paid out $23 billion to farmers.

They have to be thoughtful about it. They don't want to send out too much taxpayer money if the trade war suddenly gets resolved. And they don't want to mess up the agricultural markets by accidentally incentivizing farmers to grow, say, soybeans instead of cotton just to collect a check. In total, they paid out $23 billion to farmers.

They have to be thoughtful about it. They don't want to send out too much taxpayer money if the trade war suddenly gets resolved. And they don't want to mess up the agricultural markets by accidentally incentivizing farmers to grow, say, soybeans instead of cotton just to collect a check. In total, they paid out $23 billion to farmers.

But the U.S. did not come out of this trade war with a win. So. So.

But the U.S. did not come out of this trade war with a win. So. So.

But the U.S. did not come out of this trade war with a win. So. So.

But then, of course, in April, President Trump announced a whole truckload of tariffs and some countries retaliated. For a little over a month, any of Levon and Craig's soybeans headed for China were subject to a retaliatory tariff of 135 percent. Wheat, corn, pork, dairy, cotton, those were also hit.

But then, of course, in April, President Trump announced a whole truckload of tariffs and some countries retaliated. For a little over a month, any of Levon and Craig's soybeans headed for China were subject to a retaliatory tariff of 135 percent. Wheat, corn, pork, dairy, cotton, those were also hit.

But then, of course, in April, President Trump announced a whole truckload of tariffs and some countries retaliated. For a little over a month, any of Levon and Craig's soybeans headed for China were subject to a retaliatory tariff of 135 percent. Wheat, corn, pork, dairy, cotton, those were also hit.

Another complaint, that the money wasn't distributed fairly. There were complaints that red states got more money. And that some companies, like a giant meatpacking company, for example, got money that was supposed to go to farmers.

Another complaint, that the money wasn't distributed fairly. There were complaints that red states got more money. And that some companies, like a giant meatpacking company, for example, got money that was supposed to go to farmers.

Another complaint, that the money wasn't distributed fairly. There were complaints that red states got more money. And that some companies, like a giant meatpacking company, for example, got money that was supposed to go to farmers.

Rob was a pretty good sport about all of the criticism. You know, there are lessons we can all learn from. Do better next time. And overall, he thought the program was a success.

Rob was a pretty good sport about all of the criticism. You know, there are lessons we can all learn from. Do better next time. And overall, he thought the program was a success.

Rob was a pretty good sport about all of the criticism. You know, there are lessons we can all learn from. Do better next time. And overall, he thought the program was a success.

We asked Levon and Craig, doting grandparents and owners of an 1,100-plus acre farm, what they thought about the program.

We asked Levon and Craig, doting grandparents and owners of an 1,100-plus acre farm, what they thought about the program.

We asked Levon and Craig, doting grandparents and owners of an 1,100-plus acre farm, what they thought about the program.

So basically the government bailout helped you break even.

So basically the government bailout helped you break even.

So basically the government bailout helped you break even.

During the trade war, China started buying more and more soybeans from Brazil and Argentina and Uruguay. And when the 2018-2019 trade war ended, that buying kept going. China now buys the bulk of their soybeans from South America.

During the trade war, China started buying more and more soybeans from Brazil and Argentina and Uruguay. And when the 2018-2019 trade war ended, that buying kept going. China now buys the bulk of their soybeans from South America.

During the trade war, China started buying more and more soybeans from Brazil and Argentina and Uruguay. And when the 2018-2019 trade war ended, that buying kept going. China now buys the bulk of their soybeans from South America.

Right now, President Trump and trade representatives from China have somewhat de-escalated the situation. Those 135% retaliatory tariffs on soybeans are paused for now. But U.S. soybeans do still face a retaliatory tariff of about 10 to 20%. And this is really just a 90-day truce, not an actual trade deal.

Right now, President Trump and trade representatives from China have somewhat de-escalated the situation. Those 135% retaliatory tariffs on soybeans are paused for now. But U.S. soybeans do still face a retaliatory tariff of about 10 to 20%. And this is really just a 90-day truce, not an actual trade deal.

Right now, President Trump and trade representatives from China have somewhat de-escalated the situation. Those 135% retaliatory tariffs on soybeans are paused for now. But U.S. soybeans do still face a retaliatory tariff of about 10 to 20%. And this is really just a 90-day truce, not an actual trade deal.

So, depending on the details, it is still not clear if farmers or any group will want or need a bailout in the future. Today's episode was produced by Sylvie Douglas and was edited by Jess Jang. It was engineered by Robert Rodriguez and fact-checked by Sierra Juarez. Alex Goldmark is our executive producer.

So, depending on the details, it is still not clear if farmers or any group will want or need a bailout in the future. Today's episode was produced by Sylvie Douglas and was edited by Jess Jang. It was engineered by Robert Rodriguez and fact-checked by Sierra Juarez. Alex Goldmark is our executive producer.

So, depending on the details, it is still not clear if farmers or any group will want or need a bailout in the future. Today's episode was produced by Sylvie Douglas and was edited by Jess Jang. It was engineered by Robert Rodriguez and fact-checked by Sierra Juarez. Alex Goldmark is our executive producer.

Oh my gosh. Are you guys Iowa's best grandparents?

Oh my gosh. Are you guys Iowa's best grandparents?

Oh my gosh. Are you guys Iowa's best grandparents?

This is NPR. Thanks for listening.

This is NPR. Thanks for listening.

This is NPR. Thanks for listening.

Craig tracks the fluctuating prices of their crops using a service called Harvest Profit. It sends him alerts with the up-to-date changes in the price of each crop direct from the commodity markets in Chicago.

Craig tracks the fluctuating prices of their crops using a service called Harvest Profit. It sends him alerts with the up-to-date changes in the price of each crop direct from the commodity markets in Chicago.

Craig tracks the fluctuating prices of their crops using a service called Harvest Profit. It sends him alerts with the up-to-date changes in the price of each crop direct from the commodity markets in Chicago.

But on this day in early May when we spoke with him, Craig was willing for us to face the markets. He showed us the day's prices.

But on this day in early May when we spoke with him, Craig was willing for us to face the markets. He showed us the day's prices.

But on this day in early May when we spoke with him, Craig was willing for us to face the markets. He showed us the day's prices.

How is that? Is that good? Is that bad? Uh...

How is that? Is that good? Is that bad? Uh...

How is that? Is that good? Is that bad? Uh...

How long can you store grain comfortably without it being, like if the price is just down, down, down, how long can it stay for?

How long can you store grain comfortably without it being, like if the price is just down, down, down, how long can it stay for?

How long can you store grain comfortably without it being, like if the price is just down, down, down, how long can it stay for?

You don't want a cack in that box. They don't taste quite as good as they used to. So, will prices rise before LeVon and Craig's grains go bad? Earlier this week, they did get some good news. The U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day pause in the trade war. But American farmers are still facing a kind of existential uncertainty. And they remember what happened last time.

You don't want a cack in that box. They don't taste quite as good as they used to. So, will prices rise before LeVon and Craig's grains go bad? Earlier this week, they did get some good news. The U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day pause in the trade war. But American farmers are still facing a kind of existential uncertainty. And they remember what happened last time.

You don't want a cack in that box. They don't taste quite as good as they used to. So, will prices rise before LeVon and Craig's grains go bad? Earlier this week, they did get some good news. The U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day pause in the trade war. But American farmers are still facing a kind of existential uncertainty. And they remember what happened last time.

Hello and welcome to Planet Money. I'm Amanda Aranchik.

Hello and welcome to Planet Money. I'm Amanda Aranchik.

Hello and welcome to Planet Money. I'm Amanda Aranchik.

Today on the show, we go way, way back to 2018, to the last time U.S. farmers were collateral damage in a trade war. We go back to see how the government stepped in to keep American farms from going bankrupt, what this might tell us about this moment, and what might happen next. Before we get to the 2018 trade war, we need to spend a little bit of time in the 1980s.

Today on the show, we go way, way back to 2018, to the last time U.S. farmers were collateral damage in a trade war. We go back to see how the government stepped in to keep American farms from going bankrupt, what this might tell us about this moment, and what might happen next. Before we get to the 2018 trade war, we need to spend a little bit of time in the 1980s.

Today on the show, we go way, way back to 2018, to the last time U.S. farmers were collateral damage in a trade war. We go back to see how the government stepped in to keep American farms from going bankrupt, what this might tell us about this moment, and what might happen next. Before we get to the 2018 trade war, we need to spend a little bit of time in the 1980s.

At that time, American farms were in crisis. One of the reasons? They were too good at farming, too efficient.

At that time, American farms were in crisis. One of the reasons? They were too good at farming, too efficient.

At that time, American farms were in crisis. One of the reasons? They were too good at farming, too efficient.

At that time, farmers were growing more agricultural commodities like soybeans and corn and wheat than Americans were buying and also more than the rest of the world was buying. And farmers were maybe thinking, wouldn't it be great if we could get someone to buy all of these extra soybeans?

At that time, farmers were growing more agricultural commodities like soybeans and corn and wheat than Americans were buying and also more than the rest of the world was buying. And farmers were maybe thinking, wouldn't it be great if we could get someone to buy all of these extra soybeans?

At that time, farmers were growing more agricultural commodities like soybeans and corn and wheat than Americans were buying and also more than the rest of the world was buying. And farmers were maybe thinking, wouldn't it be great if we could get someone to buy all of these extra soybeans?

So over the 1980s and 90s, trade expanded by a lot. China, they were great at making textiles and knitwear. So I'm guessing with a fair amount of certainty that they were sending us leg warmers and some neon green sweatshirts. Thank you so much, China.

So over the 1980s and 90s, trade expanded by a lot. China, they were great at making textiles and knitwear. So I'm guessing with a fair amount of certainty that they were sending us leg warmers and some neon green sweatshirts. Thank you so much, China.

So over the 1980s and 90s, trade expanded by a lot. China, they were great at making textiles and knitwear. So I'm guessing with a fair amount of certainty that they were sending us leg warmers and some neon green sweatshirts. Thank you so much, China.

The post-Cold War era is this booming time for globalization. There is more international trade. There's more investment. There are more ties between the U.S. and Chinese economies.

The post-Cold War era is this booming time for globalization. There is more international trade. There's more investment. There are more ties between the U.S. and Chinese economies.

The post-Cold War era is this booming time for globalization. There is more international trade. There's more investment. There are more ties between the U.S. and Chinese economies.

But as with all trade relations, there are issues, squabbles, disputes. And the U.S. increasingly claims that some countries, especially China, are not playing fair. That they have been stealing intellectual property. that there have been hacks that have put U.S. national security at risk, and that their government is subsidizing industries unfairly.

But as with all trade relations, there are issues, squabbles, disputes. And the U.S. increasingly claims that some countries, especially China, are not playing fair. That they have been stealing intellectual property. that there have been hacks that have put U.S. national security at risk, and that their government is subsidizing industries unfairly.

But as with all trade relations, there are issues, squabbles, disputes. And the U.S. increasingly claims that some countries, especially China, are not playing fair. That they have been stealing intellectual property. that there have been hacks that have put U.S. national security at risk, and that their government is subsidizing industries unfairly.

China is like, oh, you're going to tariff us? Well, then we are going to retaliate. We are going to hit you where it hurts. Those farm goods you send us, we are basically going to tariff them to the max, like on your sorghum, which is this ancient grain. You usually use it to feed animals. And China did this because they knew they could source affordable sorghum from other countries.

China is like, oh, you're going to tariff us? Well, then we are going to retaliate. We are going to hit you where it hurts. Those farm goods you send us, we are basically going to tariff them to the max, like on your sorghum, which is this ancient grain. You usually use it to feed animals. And China did this because they knew they could source affordable sorghum from other countries.

China is like, oh, you're going to tariff us? Well, then we are going to retaliate. We are going to hit you where it hurts. Those farm goods you send us, we are basically going to tariff them to the max, like on your sorghum, which is this ancient grain. You usually use it to feed animals. And China did this because they knew they could source affordable sorghum from other countries.

One of these was a cargo ship named the RB Eden. It was heading from Corpus Christi to Shanghai. And while en route it gets wind of some news, it's a ship so I assume all news comes via wind, China has imposed what was kind of a retaliatory tariff on sorghum At 179%. Yowza. That is a lot.

One of these was a cargo ship named the RB Eden. It was heading from Corpus Christi to Shanghai. And while en route it gets wind of some news, it's a ship so I assume all news comes via wind, China has imposed what was kind of a retaliatory tariff on sorghum At 179%. Yowza. That is a lot.

One of these was a cargo ship named the RB Eden. It was heading from Corpus Christi to Shanghai. And while en route it gets wind of some news, it's a ship so I assume all news comes via wind, China has imposed what was kind of a retaliatory tariff on sorghum At 179%. Yowza. That is a lot.

So the ship is like, OK, we can't unload in China. And we're already more than halfway to Shanghai. So we're going to do a Yui. We're going to head around the bottom of Africa and, I don't know, towards Spain.

So the ship is like, OK, we can't unload in China. And we're already more than halfway to Shanghai. So we're going to do a Yui. We're going to head around the bottom of Africa and, I don't know, towards Spain.

So the ship is like, OK, we can't unload in China. And we're already more than halfway to Shanghai. So we're going to do a Yui. We're going to head around the bottom of Africa and, I don't know, towards Spain.

Yeah, you don't want to just like float around for weeks or months on end.

Yeah, you don't want to just like float around for weeks or months on end.

Yeah, you don't want to just like float around for weeks or months on end.

They taste expensive. But livestock farming is not what brings home the bacon, if you will.

They taste expensive. But livestock farming is not what brings home the bacon, if you will.

They taste expensive. But livestock farming is not what brings home the bacon, if you will.

All of these delicious items from American farms. No one in China will want to buy those products with the added tariffs tacked on top of them.

All of these delicious items from American farms. No one in China will want to buy those products with the added tariffs tacked on top of them.

All of these delicious items from American farms. No one in China will want to buy those products with the added tariffs tacked on top of them.

This is Aaron Lehman, farmer and president of the Iowa Farmers Union. He was like, surely we're not starting a trade war, are we?

This is Aaron Lehman, farmer and president of the Iowa Farmers Union. He was like, surely we're not starting a trade war, are we?

This is Aaron Lehman, farmer and president of the Iowa Farmers Union. He was like, surely we're not starting a trade war, are we?

And then when did it become apparent that it wasn't what you thought it was going to be?

And then when did it become apparent that it wasn't what you thought it was going to be?

And then when did it become apparent that it wasn't what you thought it was going to be?

Aaron put off upgrading his tractor. He also put off making improvements to his planter and combine. His household income went down.

Aaron put off upgrading his tractor. He also put off making improvements to his planter and combine. His household income went down.

Aaron put off upgrading his tractor. He also put off making improvements to his planter and combine. His household income went down.

Now, remember, a lot of farmers had worked for years to develop trade relations with buyers in other countries. But this 2018 trade war was putting all of that in jeopardy.

Now, remember, a lot of farmers had worked for years to develop trade relations with buyers in other countries. But this 2018 trade war was putting all of that in jeopardy.

Now, remember, a lot of farmers had worked for years to develop trade relations with buyers in other countries. But this 2018 trade war was putting all of that in jeopardy.

Now, the first Trump administration was watching all of this happen. And it looked like China was being strategic with going after farms, hitting the states where a lot of Trump voters live.

Now, the first Trump administration was watching all of this happen. And it looked like China was being strategic with going after farms, hitting the states where a lot of Trump voters live.

Now, the first Trump administration was watching all of this happen. And it looked like China was being strategic with going after farms, hitting the states where a lot of Trump voters live.

FDR was famous for his fireside chats, where he would ask fellow Americans to pull up a chair and listen to him on the radio.

FDR was famous for his fireside chats, where he would ask fellow Americans to pull up a chair and listen to him on the radio.

FDR was famous for his fireside chats, where he would ask fellow Americans to pull up a chair and listen to him on the radio.

FDR saw the cracked, blistered earth, the grasshoppers, the starving animals. It was clear that American farms were in the middle of an environmental and economic disaster.

FDR saw the cracked, blistered earth, the grasshoppers, the starving animals. It was clear that American farms were in the middle of an environmental and economic disaster.

FDR saw the cracked, blistered earth, the grasshoppers, the starving animals. It was clear that American farms were in the middle of an environmental and economic disaster.

Over the years, they've hosted many interested parties at their picturesque farm, which is conveniently located near an airport.

Over the years, they've hosted many interested parties at their picturesque farm, which is conveniently located near an airport.

Over the years, they've hosted many interested parties at their picturesque farm, which is conveniently located near an airport.

So FDR set up this government-run fund to, quote, stabilize, support, and protect farm income and prices. The Commodity Credit Corporation, the CCC. And the funds would be distributed largely at the discretion of the Secretary of Agriculture.

So FDR set up this government-run fund to, quote, stabilize, support, and protect farm income and prices. The Commodity Credit Corporation, the CCC. And the funds would be distributed largely at the discretion of the Secretary of Agriculture.

So FDR set up this government-run fund to, quote, stabilize, support, and protect farm income and prices. The Commodity Credit Corporation, the CCC. And the funds would be distributed largely at the discretion of the Secretary of Agriculture.

So remember in April 2018 when that cargo ship had to do a Yui while it was on its way to China? That was when it became clear that the 2018 trade war was going to be a disaster for U.S. farmers.

So remember in April 2018 when that cargo ship had to do a Yui while it was on its way to China? That was when it became clear that the 2018 trade war was going to be a disaster for U.S. farmers.

So remember in April 2018 when that cargo ship had to do a Yui while it was on its way to China? That was when it became clear that the 2018 trade war was going to be a disaster for U.S. farmers.

Hello and welcome to Planet Money. Hello and welcome to Planet Money.

Hello and welcome to Planet Money. Hello and welcome to Planet Money.

Hello and welcome to Planet Money. Hello and welcome to Planet Money.

Why are they important? What do they mean for us?

Why are they important? What do they mean for us?

Why are they important? What do they mean for us?

And are other countries really ripping us off?

And are other countries really ripping us off?

And are other countries really ripping us off?

I thought, well, you know, here's a question I have. I'm bad. Other people have it. But I had no idea that you guys would write right back. So that was a huge surprise.

I thought, well, you know, here's a question I have. I'm bad. Other people have it. But I had no idea that you guys would write right back. So that was a huge surprise.

I thought, well, you know, here's a question I have. I'm bad. Other people have it. But I had no idea that you guys would write right back. So that was a huge surprise.

So my question is, why are they important? What do they mean for us? You know, when I balance a checking account, being out of balance has a bad consequence. Is that true for trade deficits? And are other countries really ripping us off?

So my question is, why are they important? What do they mean for us? You know, when I balance a checking account, being out of balance has a bad consequence. Is that true for trade deficits? And are other countries really ripping us off?

So my question is, why are they important? What do they mean for us? You know, when I balance a checking account, being out of balance has a bad consequence. Is that true for trade deficits? And are other countries really ripping us off?

I don't know either.

I don't know either.

I don't know either.

Yeah, I'm not sure.

Yeah, I'm not sure.

Yeah, I'm not sure.