Jake Sullivan
Appearances
Apple News Today
Why so many incarcerated people are fighting L.A.’s wildfires
Are our alliances stronger than we found them four years ago? Yes. Are our enemies and competitors weaker than when we found them four years ago? Yes. Have we kept the United States out of war? Yes. Are the basic foundations of American power more robust and resilient today than four years ago? Yes. So I believe we are handing off a very strong hand to the next team.
Global News Podcast
Negotiators close to securing Gaza ceasefire deal - White House
We are now at a pivotal point in the negotiations for a hostage deal and ceasefire in Gaza. The president spoke with Prime Minister Netanyahu yesterday and just got off the phone with the Emir of Qatar. He'll be speaking soon also with President Sisi of Egypt. We are close to a deal and it can get done this week.
Global News Podcast
Negotiators close to securing Gaza ceasefire deal - White House
I'm not making a promise or a prediction, but it is there for the taking and we are going to work to make it happen.
The Dan Bongino Show
Will Trump's Inauguration Be Safe? (Ep. 2400)
And our adversaries and competitors are weaker across the board. Russia's weaker. Iran's weaker. China's weaker. And all the while, we kept America out of war. So I think the American people are safer, and the country is better off than we were four years ago.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
Ezra, when we walked in the door, the conventional wisdom was two things. First, that China would surpass the United States economically within the next several years. And second, that China, not the United States, was going to lead the world in artificial intelligence. Because of what President Biden has done, nobody's talking about China surpassing the United States anytime soon and perhaps ever.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
And second, the United States is the leading power when it comes to artificial intelligence, not China. And we intend to keep it that way. So I'm worried about that bottom dropping out.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
So what changed? I would say the main thing that's changed is China's changed. China's engaged in the largest peacetime military buildup in human history. Why? Why? It doesn't face any particular acute threat.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
It's done so in no small part because it has signaled publicly that at some point it wants to ensure that Taiwan is part of China and has put explicitly on the table that military force is an option to make that happen. So that's just a reality that we confronted before we walked in the door, and we had to recognize that.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
American policy towards China has been consistent over the course of decades. It is to maintain peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and to deter the conflict you just described because that conflict would be absolutely catastrophic, economically catastrophic, catastrophic in terms of the loss of lives. And we should ensure it never happens.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
And every day I sat in this seat for four years, I was determined to ensure it did not happen. And I believe it does not have to happen. It is not inevitable by any stretch of the imagination. Now, taking a step back to the underlying premise of your question, which is, are we veering down an incredibly dangerous road with China that inevitably leads to conflict?
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
I also think the answer to that question is no. When I talk about China, I speak about two truths. One truth is China is trying to surpass the United States as the world's leading power, economically, technologically, diplomatically, militarily. They're trying to do so, and they have said so. President Xi has said so.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
But we are also going to have to learn to live alongside China as a major power for the foreseeable future. That is also a reality. So our policy has to account for both of those realities. And for me, the best way to do that is to compete vigorously, but manage that competition so it doesn't veer into conflict, to maintain lines of communication.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
And I have spent, I think the technical term is umpteen hours with my counterpart in multiple countries around the world.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
to manage the competition, including on the question of Taiwan, so that we don't end up in conflict with one another, so that we have a degree of stability in the relationship, and crucially, so that we can work together with China on issues where our interests align, where we do have to work together, whether it's on counter-narcotics and fentanyl precursors, or it's on climate, or it's on macroeconomic stability.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
So I think, actually, if you look at particularly the last two years, where I've tried to intensify this channel and where President Biden has met twice with President Xi to convey a degree of stability in the relationship. We have worked hard to create space to compete, but also to create a floor in the relationship. And we believe we've done everything necessary to do so.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
And we'll pass that off to the next team.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
It's a question I think about a lot because a China that is struggling domestically, as you suggest in your question, may be looking abroad to deliver some sense of national purpose to its people, including through military conquest, including through something like trying to seize Taiwan militarily. I think that's a distinct risk. It's something we're going to have to look at quite carefully.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
But I think that the jury is still out in exactly how this will impact Taiwan. the leadership in China, because frankly, I don't think they have yet entirely wrestled with the reality you just described.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
I think they have not fully yet incorporated the economic slowdown, the demographic challenges, and they have a residual confidence that they can manage and overcome those things as they have over the course of the past decade. So I'm not sure we're going to see a dramatic change in their policy, at least in the near term, because they have this reservoir of confidence built up.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
I also believe that the Chinese leadership fundamentally is convinced that the United States is in secular decline. And that is because they misjudge a fundamental fact about America, which is our capacity for resilience and reinvention. And so their leadership is fond of saying the East is rising, the West is declining.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
And they can point to political turbulence and other challenges the United States surely has. But I don't think they were quite ready for... The moves that we have made from the point of view of manufacturing and innovation, the robustness and resilience of our economy, the extent to which this is the destination people want to come to for investment.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
And they're grappling right now with that reality. But coming back to the fundamental question you're asking, there is a distinct possibility that a domestically weakened China becomes more assertive and aggressive globally. But there is also a possibility that it leads them to adjust towards greater caution, as previous Chinese leaders have done.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
Deng Xiaoping was famous for saying that the fundamental Chinese strategy should be «bide and hide». hide your capabilities and bide your time. And President Xi really broke out of that in a big way.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
Perhaps the result of the challenges that he is confronting will lead to some restoration of that basic mentality for a period, or perhaps it will go in this other direction where nationalism really dictates a much more aggressive and assertive policy. I think...
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
That has yet to be determined, and it will partly be determined by the policy of the United States and the actions of our allies and partners over the course of the coming years.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
Well, I've said this a couple times before, but I think it's a helpful thought experiment. A lot of people say, hey, Russia's doing pretty well in this war. Isn't Putin kind of smart for having invaded Ukraine? Let's imagine in February of 2022 that Joe Biden...
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
went on television and told the American people, I'm invading Canada, and I'm going to seize Ottawa in a week and replace the government. It's going to be not a war, but a special military operation, and it'll be done in a few days, and the Canadians will welcome us as liberators.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
And three years later, the American army was in the wheat fields of Manitoba, grinding out mile by mile, having lost dead and wounded 600,000 Americans,
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
having inflation near 10% and the interest rates near 20% in the United States, having mortgaged our economic future technologically and in terms of our high-tech industrial base, would anybody say, hey, America's doing pretty well there, Joe Biden's a smart guy? Absolutely not. Fundamentally, Russia's strategic objectives in this war have failed. They failed to take Kyiv.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
They failed to destroy Ukraine. They failed to break NATO. And so now the question is, how do we drive to a just and sustainable peace that allows Ukraine to emerge as a free and independent, viable nation rooted in the West? I think that that opportunity is present.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
And I think our job right now is to continue to supply Ukraine with the leverage they need to get a good deal at the negotiating table. That is what we're trying to do in our waning days before passing the baton to President Trump.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
Well, first, President Zelensky has said publicly that definitely this war has to end in diplomacy, and he recognizes that, and he accepts the basic American proposition that our job is to put them in the best possible position on the battlefield so they are in the best possible position at the negotiating table. in September, he came to Washington to see President Biden.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
And he brought with him what he called his victory plan. Now, that victory plan, in part, was a plan to put him in a position to be able to negotiate a just outcome to this war. So even before the election, the idea was that whoever won, whether it was President Trump or Vice President Harris, that there would be a turn into negotiations at some point
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
such that Ukraine would have the necessary leverage to get the outcome that it needs. And that outcome has a critical element to it, which is sufficient guarantees for its security that if there is some kind of deal, Russia can't just wait a year and turn around and do it all over again. But it is fundamentally up to Ukraine to choose both ways.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
when to engage the negotiation, and what the ultimate outcome of the negotiation will be. And, you know, I've heard the critics who say, why doesn't the United States just make Ukraine accept a deal? And my answer to that question is, this is Ukrainian land. These are Ukrainian lives.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
It should be up to the democratically elected Ukrainian government to make its determination about whether to bring the war to an end or whether to continue it. So for me, the real issue is not, hey, Washington, why don't you just squeeze Zelensky till he gives up X amount of land? The real question is, how do we make sure
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
that President Zelensky has sufficient leverage and is in a position to get to the negotiating table and do a deal.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
Well, I think you made a really important leap in the analysis underpinning that question, and it's a leap I wouldn't make. You said, obviously, we have a say because we're giving weapons. And then you said, or implied, so we should go tell them to stop. And it's that leap I don't want to make. It's true. We could cut Ukraine off.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
We could say you get nothing more unless you accept that Russia gets X percent of your territory. That is an option available to us. So empirically, I agree with you on that analytical point. But on the prescriptive point, should we do that? I do not agree. I don't think that the United States should tell Ukraine, you just have to give up. We're done unless you give up.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
That, I believe, is an inappropriate use of American leverage.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
Well, first, I would just say, personally, I was engaged over the course of 2023 and 2024 in a variety of formats around the world—in Jeddah, in Malta, in Copenhagen, in Kiev itself— around trying to put together the principles of a just and sustainable peace. So we were feeling our way through what it might look like to get to an ultimate solution to this war.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
But what I don't think is right is for the United States to dictate to a country that's fighting for its very survival what the exact terms or shape of a negotiation should look like, unless it's going to drag us into war. And it hasn't dragged us into war.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
What it has asked of the American people is what I believe is a very sustainable thing for us to give, which is the supply of weapons and intelligence and support. And I don't believe that it is a sufficient cost to the United States to continue to do that, that we should compromise our moral support for a country that is being attacked and that is having its sovereignty stripped of it.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
So for me, the argument doesn't stack up that because we're supplying weapons to Ukraine, we, the United States, should dictate the outcome to Ukraine. And I would add one further point, which is one of the hallmarks of the Biden approach on Ukraine that I don't think gets enough credit is our capacity to hold the unity of the alliance together.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
President Putin at the beginning of this bet that he would break NATO, that he would divide Europe. We have held together a coalition of 50 nations through thick and thin. The United States coming along and telling Ukraine, this is how it's going to be, would surely shatter that unity.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
And one good metric for whether the Haas position is a position that could gain purchase is, are there a bunch of allies out there, significant allies of the United States and Europe, who are saying, hey, America, go force Ukraine to the table and make them do a deal? There aren't.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
And for those who say, well, this is a very passive approach, I can just tell you, the sheer number of hours I spend every day
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
helping continue to corral the broad base of international support for Ukraine, the work that we do to supply them with the necessary munitions to stay on the battlefield, and the work that we have done to discuss the shape of diplomacy in this series of engagements over the course of the past two years.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
This has been a highly proactive, highly effective strategy to frustrate Russia's ambitions and to keep Ukraine a sovereign, viable nation. And I believe we have succeeded in doing that
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
And I believe that there is the possibility for a deal to be done and that when Ukraine is ready to sign on the dotted line of that deal, we can hold our heads held high that we did not impose a dictated outcome on a sovereign and free people.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
Well, I think the consensus really was rooted in the idea that international economic integration, the free flow of capital across borders, the bringing in of every country in the world to a single international economic system would lead to greater efficiency, greater responsibility of action by all of those players, and that everyone would ultimately benefit from that.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
This was essentially the thesis of globalization through the 90s and the 2000s, that markets efficiently allocate capital at all times. Fundamentally, all growth is good growth. It's all the same. It doesn't matter what type of growth it is, whether it's the growth of the financial sector or the growth of the industrial sector.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
And that bringing in China or bringing in Russia to the World Trade Organization would make those countries play by the rules.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
At its core, a lot of the elements of the international financial and economic system were sound and helped deliver robust top-line growth and technological progress in the United States, but also created these huge vulnerabilities, supply chain vulnerabilities, a lack of allocation of capital to the great crises of our time, like the climate crisis, a greater inequality and the hollowing out of our industrial base in the United States.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
And those were the kinds of things that we needed an updated international economic policy to try to address.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
Well, the Nippon Steel deal is really a very specific national security question. And in fact, the Committee on Foreign Investment that looks at this, these questions of foreign acquisition of major strategic domestic industries, actually was unanimous in saying it does pose national security risks. Because if a foreign entity, even an allied entity,
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
is not as invested as the United States is in making sure that we maintain the level of steel production in the United States that we feel is necessary for our national security, that's a risk. The real debate within the committee was over whether there was sufficient steps that could be taken to mitigate that risk.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
President Biden ultimately decided that fundamentally there has to be some percentage, some element of the American steel industry that is American-owned, American-operated, and driven by American workers. And that was a judgment he made.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
I do not think one should look at that deal and say, okay, that means President Biden isn't going to work with allies and partners because the record is replete with instances where we're working with Japan on critical minerals, on semiconductors, and so many other things, but rather a unique case that was looked at hard on the merits and the president reached a judgment.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
Well, there's a professor named Danny Roderick who writes a lot about international economic policy. And 15 or 20 years ago, he described what he called a trilemma. He said that when you look at the international economic system, you can't have all three of democracy, national sovereignty, and globalization. One of the three has to give.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
And he describes various times in history when democracy gave so that you could have both national sovereignty and globalization and times like with the European Union where national sovereignty gave. But he says you basically can't have all three. And I have thought a lot about that. And What I laid out in the Brookings speech is an effort basically to solve that trilemma.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
It's to say, how do you have America at the center of an international economic order that is open and transparent and allows for trade and investment, but at the same time allows for a strong industrial and innovation base in the United States, does not allow for supply chains to be choked off by competitors or leveraged to punish us,
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
And that delivers actual benefits to working in middle class people so that you don't end up with massive inequality. How do you build that? And the Biden approach, the foreign policy for the middle class that I laid out, is an ongoing, in my view, generational effort.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
to sustain democracy and national sovereignty while also not ending up back in the protectionist and nationalist mistakes of the 1930s. Will it succeed over the long term?
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
I don't know, but I think we have put some events in motion here that kind of regardless of who's in the White House, unless they're just completely ripped away, will end up serving the United States and the international economic system well over time. And now we have to see what Donald Trump does with it.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
Well, first, during that campaign, I remember distinctly one episode where I went to Ohio to speak to a group of supporters. And in the course of my remarks, I referred to the liberal international order talking about the future of the world and so forth. And somebody came up to me afterwards and said, I don't know what the liberal international order is, but I don't like any of those three words.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
Well, first, I would start just on basic principles. Why did this war start? This war started because Hamas committed the worst massacre of the Jewish people since the Holocaust, and Israel responded to try to root out the threat that Hamas could do that again, as its leaders said it wanted to do again and again and again.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
The way that Israel has had to prosecute this campaign has been unprecedented in history because you are talking about an area with hundreds of miles of military tunnels underneath, with Hamas using hospitals and schools and mosques for military purposes, and with a highly densely populated area where, unlike in almost any conflict anywhere, those people were not allowed to go anywhere else.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
Now, that does not lessen Israel's responsibility to minimize civilian harm. And too many civilians have died in this war. And too many civilians have struggled to get the necessary life-saving sustenance, food, water, medicine, et cetera.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
And we have pushed hard and I believe have made a substantial difference in the delivery of humanitarian aid to Gaza to stave off the worst effects of famine that were predicted over the course of many months.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
Sitting here today, it is true that Hamas's military formations are shattered, its leader, Sinwar, is dead, and yet it continues to hold hostages, including American hostages, and it continues to fight and continues to assert that it will represent a long-term threat to Israel. Now, over the course of the past several months, we have been trying to work to get to a ceasefire and hostage deal.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
so that hostages begin coming out and humanitarian aid can surge in and we can get to an end to the war. Alongside that, we have also been working with all of the key players in the region on a day-after plan. But you say it's been 15 months. That's so long. It's been years, decades.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
that American presidents have been trying to deliver an ultimate political solution to the Palestinian question, and no American president has been able to do it.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
Well, if the question fundamentally behind all of that is, why don't you just cut off weapons to Israel or offensive weapons or whatever it is, which I think the question that you're asking is, one of the things I would point out to you is that over the course of the past 15 months, Israel has not just been fighting Hamas. Israel has been fighting Hezbollah. Israel has been attacked by the Houthis.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
Israel has been attacked by the Shia militia groups in both Iraq and Syria. And Israel has been attacked directly by Iran. So to talk about the cutoff of American military assistance to Israel is not just a question of, hey, do we have leverage over them in Gaza? It's a question about our obligation to help Israel defend itself against a myriad of enemies, many of whom are our enemies as well.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
And there is complexity in someone sitting down and saying, okay, I get all that, but because of Gaza, I'm not sending them any more of the kinds of weapons that they've had to use to actually fight those various foes. So that's one thing to keep in mind.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
And that stuck with me. It stuck with me through the primary, where Hillary Clinton took on Bernie Sanders, and it stuck with me through the general, where Hillary Clinton took on Donald Trump. And I think that there's a variety of reasons why Donald Trump won in 2016, and I don't have a unified theory.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
Look, I just want to be clear, Ezra. I wasn't just trying to put forward an argument. What I'm trying to do is just give an explanation of the complexity of the decision-making when you sit in my seat, that when the proposition comes in, just cut off arms, what are the things we have to think through? So I'm not here trying to engage in a polemic and say, this justifies that or the other thing.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
I'm just trying to explain to your listeners what... One reality that we contend with is the cutoff of arms has consequences for Israel's security well beyond just Gaza. So that's one point. The second key point here, I think, goes to kind of the nature of a friendship, an alliance.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
And the broad-based cutting off of arms in the middle of a war is a truly dramatic act that has far-reaching consequences. And for that reason, President Biden has been very reluctant to think of our relationship with Israel in these kinds of transactional leverage-based terms that you've just described. Now, there have been targeted instances where
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
where the president said, for a particular type of weapon system, it just doesn't make sense. So he paused the supply of 2,000-pound bombs because he said the military utility of these in densely populated areas compared with the civilian harm is just out of whack. And that, he said, no.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
But the broad-based cutoff, he has not been persuaded makes sense in light of our relationship with Israel and in light of the circumstance in the region as a whole. But I would argue that...
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
that if you actually look at what the United States has done on the question of humanitarian assistance over the course of the past 15 months, we have made a considerable difference from a period when Israel said, we are not going to allow anything into these guys because Hamas is going to take it to today.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
But I do think one important dimension of it was that people looked at the global financial crisis and and the aftermath and said, this economy is not working for me. And they looked at America's position in the world, and they said, part of why this economy is not working for me is that American foreign policy is not sufficiently focused on the needs of working people.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
where we do have trucks going in on a daily basis, thanks to the kind of sustained American pressure that has, in fact, produced results. Not everything we wanted, and you're right, there have been periods which we have called out really far from what is acceptable.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
But I would just say to you that the president's mindset, his approach on this, has been an approach that says, we are going to speak to our values and we are going to call out that the Palestinian civilians in Gaza are going through hell, that there have been too much dying, too much suffering. But at the same time,
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
that at the end of the day, we have an ally who is basically being attacked by all sides, by multiple different directions, and a full cutoff of weapons to Israel in these circumstances is simply not a policy that President Biden decided to pursue.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
Well, first, I think there's something a bit metaphysical about whose decision it is because it'd be us who was saying we're going to cut you off if etc. So the leverage and transactional determination would be taken from our side. But I think the
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
Listening to you lay this out, and of course, I've heard this argument from people of good faith, people I respect deeply, and people who I know feel deeply about the plight of the Palestinian people. I've also heard the argument from the other side that the Biden administration has been insufficiently supportive of Israel, that withholding 2,000-pound bombs and calling out Israeli excesses and
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
speaking about our concerns, that somehow this has been empowering of our enemies and harmful to Israel. And that is not a small constituency in this country. So I say sitting in my seat very much on this issue, we get it from both sides. What we have tried to do is adopt a policy which says we are going to continue to support Israel in its attempt to defeat terrorist enemies and to deter Iran.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
We are going to do so including through the provision of military assistance. At the same time, we are also going to be unflinching in our critique of Israel where we believe they have gone too far, and we are going to push them to a better place on things like humanitarian assistance. We have stood by those basic principles throughout this conflict, but
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
And that was something that I took away as a main lesson of 2016.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
The question of Gaza obviously continues to be a daily struggle, in part because we are trying to deliver this ceasefire and hostage deal. And just having Israel say, okay, we accept a ceasefire, we have to just stop at a time when all of these hostages are being held, that doesn't wash.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
I think things are unfolding so rapidly in the Middle East right now that it's difficult to give you any kind of confident answers to those questions. I'm reminded of my fellow Minnesotan Bob Dylan's song, The Times They Are a-Changing.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
Iran is weaker than it's been since the Iranian revolution, and yet a weaker Iran still represents a genuine threat because a weaker Iran could decide it has no choice but to go nuclear, and that's something we are going to have to contend with. In Syria, the fall of a brutal butcher in Assad is a good thing.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
That man has no business ruling over a people that he's massacred at scale over the course of many years. On the other hand, it has created a genuine threat of extremism and terrorism that is going to have to be managed and contained over the coming months and years. I will point out one concern I have that's quite immediate.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
which is our biggest counterterrorism partner against ISIS was the Kurds, a group called the Syrian Democratic Forces. There is a threat now against them from both Turkey and Turkish-supported opposition forces in Syria to take territory that the Kurds hold in Syria.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
If they do so, it could lead the Kurds to take their eye off the prisons where thousands of ISIS fighters and ISIS families are being held. And if that happens, you could see prison breaks that lead to this huge number of ISIS fighters running free. And so on and so forth. You can follow that down the path of your imagination.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
So the most important thing from my perspective is that we recognize what America's fundamental interests are here. Our first interest is to make sure that we continue to keep the pressure on ISIS so that ISIS does not reemerge as a major territorial challenge as it did a decade ago. The second is that we support our friends in the region so that...
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
The instability that's emanating from Syria and elsewhere does not wash over them in Jordan, in Iraq, in Egypt, of course, in Israel, and to keep this fragile ceasefire in Lebanon and try to have it grow out. The third is actually to try to ensure that Iran can never get a nuclear weapon. That has been a position of Democratic and Republican administrations.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
Well, Ezra, I do think I would have said yes, but I think I would have paused for a second and reflected before saying yes, because it wouldn't have been instinctive. Because when I sat around the Situation Room table during the Obama years, the question wasn't frequently put on the table in the Situation Room, hey, what does this mean for working people, working families in the United States?
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
That's a great question to ask me in six months after I've slept for a really long time, because honestly, I haven't had the time since November to reflect. I was hoping to reflect and then Assad fell and lots of other things happened, even just during the transition.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
So I can't give you a fully formed, coherent answer to the question, but I can give you the beginning of an answer, which is that I actually think... This election was determined less by the deeply structural factors we were talking about earlier and more by immediate things. post-COVID economics, high prices, the feeling people had of dislocation in the years following the pandemic.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
And what I believe quite deeply is that President Biden's economic policies, the fruits of them, and the benefits that flow to the American people will be measured in decades, and political cycles are measured in years. And the gap between those two things, I think, has a lot to do with why President Trump won this election.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
Well, when the other side wins the election and you lose the election, if your answer to that question is no, there's nothing else we could have or should have done, then you'd have no business, you know, still being around. Of course, I think about that because, of course, the answer has to be yes because we could have and should have done things, obviously, to try to produce a different result.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
But, you know... President Biden had a deep conviction about what he was trying to deliver for the American people at the end of the day. And it wasn't completely about just setting up the terms of re-election for Democrats. It was about his view of what was going to make America safe and strong and especially... working families in the United States safe and strong.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
And I think he believes he set all of those things in motion in a quite dramatic and profound way. And that when we look back at the policies he pursued, the investments he made, and the course he set the country on, it is going to look pretty damn good.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
And so I do think President Obama pursued a progressive economic agenda. But one striking thing is that his domestic economic policy looked a lot different from George W. Bush's, but his international economic policy really didn't. The Trans-Pacific Partnership, for example, was a Bush-era trade initiative that President Obama carried forward.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
I've thought about this a lot as well. I guess I believe we are in a plastic moment in the world, a time when our competitors are trying to challenge the system in a profound way. It's true of China. It's true of Russia. It's true of Iran. And they're doing so trying to push the boundaries of what they can, for lack of a better term, get away with. And so I believe that in a period like this,
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
There is no way to prevent all crisis, all turbulence. I don't think that that is a viable endgame for American foreign policy. I think the endgame for American foreign policy should be, can we manage that period without ourselves getting dragged into a major conflict We have done that. Can we manage that period with our alliances stronger than we found them?
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
I think it is indisputable that we have done that. And can we manage that period where our adversaries are weaker than we found them? And in all three cases, China, Russia, Iran, I think the record is clear that they are demonstrably weaker. And on the two areas... that I think are gonna matter the most to our future. One, is AI gonna work for us or against us?
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
The US has led and has actually shaped both the technology and the rules of the road. And on the clean energy transition, are we gonna make it through this transition in a way that is just and efficient? We have moved supply chains. We have moved investment. We have moved innovation.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
I mean, the United States right now, you look around the world, there's no one else who has anything remotely resembling the hand the United States has. If the measure is, are there any wars happening anywhere in the world at this time? If there are, you failed. Well, there are wars happening.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
If the measure is, is there conflict in the Middle East unfolding, then there hasn't been a presidency, including the Trump presidency, where there hasn't been a substantial amount of disorder in the Middle East. But if the measure is, is America in a stronger position
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
on the issues that actually matter to the long-term health, security, and prosperity of the American people, I think the answer to that question is demonstrably yes.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
And where things stand in the Middle East today compared to under the Trump presidency or the Obama presidency or before in terms of the relative position of our friends and our adversaries, I'll take it broadly that that, I think, is an opportunity for the new Trump administration to seize. of the events that continue to unfold in Gaza. As you said, it is heartbreaking. It is brutal.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
So yes, I do think President Obama cared deeply about the American middle class, but I don't think We were as attuned to the needs of the American middle class in the Situation Room as we should have been. Now, your question is, what does that mean substantively? For me, it means four things.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
It keeps me up at night. And I think about that from both the perspective of the Palestinians and the Israelis. And I believe that if we can get a foothold in the ceasefire and hostage deal and try to carry that forward into something more enduring... we can move into a different era on that conflict as well. And I know you said you're not one who thinks there can be an ultimate solution.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
I have not entirely given up hope on that despite the sense of hopelessness that is there right now. And then the very final point that I would make on all of this is we have thought hard about how you integrate foreign policy and domestic policy.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
So that at the end of the day, what we are doing in terms of our investments in the American people and what we are doing working with countries around the world is most likely 10 years from now to put the United States in a position where we aren't dependent on other countries for critical supply chains. We aren't facing adversaries that are overmatching us militarily or technologically.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
We have great and strong friends who we stand behind and stand behind us. And it is a real dividend to Donald Trump that he's being handed a hand that does not involve the United States at war. Then always our final question. What are three books you recommend to the audience?
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
Well, first I'll just say that I frequently get Amazon deliveries from my dad because he listens to your podcast and then takes a book that one of your guests recommended and he sends it to me.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
Yeah, exactly. So for me, three books. The first is actually a report from 1945 by Vannevar Bush to FDR called Science, The Endless Frontier that has been turned into a book. You can get it on Amazon. And it's basically the blueprint for America's national science and technology policy for the next several decades.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
And I think it has so much resonance to what we need to do today on semiconductors, on AI, on clean energy, on biotechnology, on quantum. And it's really a story about bold public investment and experimentation unlocking both private sector and academic research that powered American innovation through decades. And he delivered that right at the end of the Second World War. to the president.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
And it makes actually for a very good read. The second is a book that I'm just partly through, but I actually, I'll read the whole thing, but I skipped to the end because I really wanted to focus on the AI part of it, which is Nexus by Yuval Hariri.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
First, that foreign policy starts at home with major public investments in strategic sectors that help reinvigorate our industrial base and create jobs all over the United States. Second, that we put in place a series of protections against the likes of China, whose policies led to a shock in the United States in the early 2000s and deindustrialization of key communities.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
And I think everyone should read this book because to me, I don't agree with every word of it, but it paints a picture of what we are going to be contending with artificial intelligence and that frankly is a little bit worrisome, but is also so deeply thoughtful. One of the points he makes is for the first time, humans are inventing not a tool, but an agent. And this has all kinds of implications.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
And then the third book, a totally different kind of book, is a book called The Situation Room, which George Stephanopoulos wrote. If you want to understand my job and what sitting in the situation room is like, dealing with crises with presidents, with secretaries of state and defense.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
This book actually walks through the history of the Situation Room as told through a series of episodes over multiple presidents. And I recommend it simply because it's hard to know what the heck a national security advisor does. You read that book, you'll have some sense of the reason why the bags under my eyes are so heavy.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
Third, that we protect American technologies, especially technologies that have national security implications so that they can't be used against us by our adversaries. And then finally, that a large part of the energy we put into our allies and partners is about organizing and coordinating an effort.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
So they're similarly making these investments, and we are designing a coordinated approach to international economic policy that puts working people at the center. And if you take those four steps, which I believe the Biden administration has, you create a long-term trajectory where
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
the American worker has more secure jobs, the potential for higher wages, where technology works for us rather than against us, and critically, where we have diverse and resilient supply chains that aren't dependent on any other country, especially a competitor like China.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
Well, I believe that President Biden got the big thing right. The United States is better off today because we are no longer at war in Afghanistan. If we were at war in Afghanistan today, that war would be entering its 25th year of American service members fighting and dying in Afghanistan. We got right
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
that we could refocus our energy and attention elsewhere on the competition with China, on supporting Ukraine, and on building up the kinds of alliances and partnerships that I've just described. And I would go further and say that the main arguments people made against leaving at the time have not borne out. One of them was that it was going to undermine us with our allies.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
Our alliances are stronger today than they have been at any point in modern memory. A second was that it was going to lead to a massive upsurge of terrorism emanating directly from Afghanistan. We've recently seen a terrorist attack in New Orleans and the terrorist threat remains real, but we have not seen that resurgence from Afghanistan.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
And we also showed that we could take out terrorists in Afghanistan by taking out Zawahiri, one of the architects of 9-11, even without boots on the ground. And they also said we wouldn't be able to get out our allies who supported us during the war, our Afghan allies.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
But in fact, we've gotten out tens of thousands, even since the fall of Kabul in August of 2021, making good on our promise to those people. Now, one of the things when I look back that I saw as something we could learn from is that we did not want to go out too early.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
and start an evacuation because we were concerned that doing so would precipitate the very outcome that came to pass, the collapse of the government and the fall of Kabul. The government asked us not to move too rapidly because they were concerned that it would lead to a collapse of morale. Now, in hindsight, the collapse happened anyway. And so we learned a lesson from that.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
And we applied that lesson in other places, like in Ukraine, where in the run-up to the Russian invasion, we shut down our embassy. We got all diplomats out of harm's way. And so a lot of the things that we did to prepare for the Russian invasion were direct lessons that we learned from Afghanistan.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
Well, the way that I look at this is that we are in a moment of transition in world affairs. That is the culmination of a lot of factors leading to this point. The post-Cold War era is over. The period of American primacy from the 90s and early 2000s, that has come to an end. That came to an end before President Biden came into office.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
So our time in the seat, our four years, has really been about... a competition for what comes next. What does that look like? So I do not deny that there has been turbulence, and I have the years off my life to basically affirm that there has been turbulence over these last four years. And yes, when you end a 20-year war,
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
with all of the decisions that had been taken leading up to the point when it was handed off to us, with the Taliban in its strongest position, the United States at its lowest troop level since 2001, and a Doha agreement that had us have to leave by May 1st of 2021. Yes, it was not going to be easy leaving that war. It was not. But for me, when history looks back at this period,
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
where necessarily there is going to be change and upheaval in the world. The question is, did we navigate through it in a way where we gave a stronger hand to the administration who's coming in than the one that we received? And I think that the verdict of history will be that we very much did. Our alliances are stronger. Our enemies are weaker. The United States itself is not at war.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
And the basic foundations of American strength, our economy, our infrastructure, our innovation base, our defense industrial base are considerably more powerful and more robust than they were when we took office. And as President Trump comes into office, we have teed up for him, in my view, opportunities because the United States is in a position of considerable strength.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
I think President Trump was right, and I actually said so at the time, even before we came into office. I said he was right about the basic proposition that the United States was in an intense long-term competition with China.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
That the era that they kind of called engagement, this idea from the 90s and 2000s that if you brought China into the international economic order, into the international system, they would somehow liberalize, transform, become a more responsible actor, that that idea had not borne out. The evidence on that was pretty clear by the end of the Obama administration.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
And so I think President Trump was correct in saying that China is seeking to gain advantage in the international system at the expense of the United States, and the United States needs to step up to push back because our interests and our values are at stake. I think he was right about that.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
I think his execution of that was wanting in a lot of ways, but the most fundamental way was that he did not recognize the central importance of having strong allies and partners aligned with us in carrying out the competition with China.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
A mere month before we took office in 2021, Europe signed a comprehensive investment agreement, a major trade agreement with China, right at the end of the Trump administration. This, to me, was a profound failure of the Trump administration to pull Europe along with us in a common view on this subject.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
And what we did when we came in was say, we're going to put allies at the center of our strategy because a united front... vis-a-vis China is much more effective for the United States. That trade agreement, it's now on the shelf. And Europe has actually joined us in taking economic countermeasures against some of China's non-market economic practices.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
And in the Asia Pacific, if you look at what we've done with AUKUS, which is the US, Australia, and the United Kingdom putting together a nuclear submarine initiative, or what we've done with Japan and Korea in a trilateral arrangement. We have brought our alliances to a new level in terms of our ability to both burden share and deter China in the Indo-Pacific region.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
And then there are other areas where I think President Trump talked the right game but didn't deliver. The fundamental investments in America's industrial and innovation base that President Biden has done over the last four years were things that President Trump suggested he would do but never did, whether it's chips or clean energy or infrastructure.
The Ezra Klein Show
Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?
And those have put the United States in such a profound position of confidence and capacity in the competition with China, all the while also engaging in intense diplomacy so that the bottom doesn't drop out and we veer into conflict with China. We've managed the relationship stably. while also competing, in my view, quite effectively.