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Jake Howe

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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

0.049

All right, everybody, welcome to the number one podcast in the world. I am your boy, Jake Howe, the world's greatest moderator, executive producer for life with me again on the All In podcast is the Rain Man, David Sachs. Yeah, looking healthy, looking good, looking trim. The hair's great. How you feeling, brother?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

1060.441

You know, I have a long relationship with Google as a content creator, and they do have a massive monopoly in search. That's absolutely true. And the Justice Department, I think, is well within their rights to take a deep dive on that. They don't have it in ads.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

1075.651

If you look at the competition for Google in advertising, you got Meta, TikTok, and Amazon, which have very, very significant advertising businesses, and then like a bunch of new players, which are referred to basically as the shopping cart ad networks. That's Uber, Instacart, DoorDash, et cetera.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

1091.229

And so when you look at this, it's kind of paradoxical that it really does rhyme with what happened with Microsoft. They're two decades late on this. The search monopoly has been squeezed for every dollar and to build every... sub-component of Google's monopoly.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

1110.897

Flights, shopping, all of these things put into Google search and put at the top above organic search has basically killed hundreds, hundreds of startups over the decades. And so I actually don't think this is going to do much if they do a breakup. The easy solution for... Google, and I agree with, I think, people who said that here, is to just spin out YouTube and Waymo.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

113.127

Can you tell us the flavor profile, the notes? What did you get as you were swirling?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

1132.845

Those two are perfect standalone businesses. Yeah, there's some backend stuff, but like you said, Freeberg, they could become customers of the ad network of the cloud for some number of years. But YouTube and Waymo, those would be like a $400 billion company, a $50 billion company, and those are right in the zeitgeist of the future and what advertisers want.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

1151.312

So I think offering those two up would unlock massive shareholder value. The most damaging one would be Android. If they force them to sell Android, that is going to be massively damaging because an independent Android company could then, you know, give their search default to Bing and Microsoft would happily bid for that.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

1175.388

They would auction it, right. And so, I mean, losing every- On Google's fork of Android, right? Correct. And so that is the dominant player. And then they have handsets. So how much is that worth?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

1200.944

That would be incredibly damaging to Google. That's the most damaging. The easiest is YouTube and Waymo in this whole mix. But I'll give you the wild card in all of this.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

1225.991

And they will lose one third of their revenue to that new company. Now, of course, they'll get it back in the equity, but then they don't have it because about a third of searches are mobile now. And that's increasing. The big wild card in all this is Apple. When I was doing Mahalo, which was a human powered search in over 10 years ago, that's Sequoia back. I emailed it to Steve Jobs.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

1245.914

He opened it. He played with it a bunch. I won't talk about anything else in that regard. But they had a search project in the works when Steve Jobs was in charge over there. They were looking at search because he had such an ax to grind with Eric Schmidt because they launched Android and he kicked Eric Schmidt off the board. And there was a lot of hand-wringing there.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

1266.069

I think Apple is, and I've heard this from folks around Apple, that they're looking at search again. And there's DuckDuckGo and there's a company called Brave that has their own search engine and search API that's gotten very popular. I believe Apple is going to launch their own search engine and compete heads up with Google.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

1283.632

And so I think that's going to be the very interesting thing that happens in this market. The question then becomes, Chamath, does this distract management to a level like it did Microsoft and you have a lost decade and it takes their eyes off the prize of AI?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

1331.504

I think the- I'm always referring to management, you know? Like, do you think it distracts management from running the business, Shema?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

150.967

Well, you know, boys, I had a big week. I had a big week this week. You know, I'm at the lake still, but I made a little trip to Silicon Valley. I was hanging out with Ruloff at Sequoia. And as I'm prone to do, I love to go to Bucks. You guys been to Bucks before in Woodside? Mm-hmm.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

1590.885

I'm gonna take the other side of that. I think that what they can do with their massive amount of power is destructive to competition in the marketplace. If you look at self-driving, we have had tens of billions of dollars invested. Without Waymo, it would have been just fine. There have been so much money, Tesla, Uber, you know, a cruise GM, there's plenty of people out there.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

1613.192

There's plenty of capital out there from around the world. And I think when these companies and Facebook's one, I think proves my point, what you're saying here is,

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

1622.176

I think it would be better that you didn't have these companies that could put $20 billion into something and you had 50 startups go after it rather than these giant companies just steal it and overpower them, flooding them with capital. It makes the world less dynamic that Zuck can just, and Google can keep taking the next category from the marketplace. Go ahead, Sax. You had a point?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

1678.138

Yeah. So, I mean, I guess it's a negotiation now. Maybe they put up one or two to be spun out and then the negotiation happens. And who knows, you could have regime change in Washington. Okay, let's keep moving through this incredibly. Juicy Docket, Starbucks CEO, is out after a year and a half of underperformance. Star B's CEO, Laxman Narasim, stepped down after just 16 months on the job.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

168.56

Well, it's my favorite place to get breakfast or get my little tuna melt. I've been going there for ages. It's a little bit of a legendary place where Steve Jurvetson made the Hotmail investment, the Tesla investment, all kinds of famous stuff happens at Bucks.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

1700.956

I'll break down what went wrong and get your reaction to all this. I know you have some strong feelings on it. Freiburg as well. Earlier this week, Starbucks shares were down 20% year to date compared to the S&P, up 12%. Companies are two straight quarters of declining revenue, the definition of a recession, in fact.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

1715.477

They've had to raise prices massively due to inflation that has annoyed customers. And customers have been irate about the weight which has been caused by two things. One, they have a broken staffing algorithm. That's led to massive understaffing. And then the app has become, the Starbees app is incredibly complex and you can order ridiculous drinks.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

1744.653

Kids are addicted to this. That's what kids call it? Kids are addicted to it. Yeah. And they've added like all these like fruity drinks and stuff that would be like along the Boba lines that have made, have become incredibly popular with millennials and Gen Z.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

1758.021

So anyway, Laxman was the handpicked successor by Howard Schultz, and Schultz helped prep and train Laxman, but he's been super critical of him recently, kind of like the Bob Iger, Bob Chapek relationship we saw play out in 2022 over at Disney. Brian Nicol, the current CEO of Chipotle, is going to take over at the end of August. Investors love this move. Shares jumped 25% on Tuesday.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

1784.339

Brian Nicol, the current CEO of Chipotle. Chipotle?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

1799.287

Anyway, Starbucks jumped 25% on Tuesday, largest day increase, yada, yada. Meanwhile, Chipotle dropped 8%. Nicole is on a heater. When he switches teams, the odds go with him. And Starbucks has a bunch of activist investors who are winning massively as part of putting pressure on this freeberg. Starbucks and Nike, both iconic global brands, both have faltered. What's your take?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

193.271

Yeah, for those people who don't know, Palm Pilot was the most innovative and poorly designed product in the last century.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

1983.702

Sachs or Chamath, anybody have strong feelings here?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

205.986

So good. But you know, I'm wearing my Bucks hat and I got my Bucks menu here. Boys, it was like a pinnacle of my career. I've been waiting for this. If you go to Bucks and you look at the sides, you can get your crispy Brussels sprouts there, Freeburg. Get your sweet potato fries. But there it is. J. Cal's onion rings are now on the menu at Bucks. I have hit the big leagues, folks.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

22.415

Haircut looks good. Now, do you go to the barber, the stylist? They come to you. Everybody wants to know.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

228.629

Wait, is that real? Did you really get that? I did. I'm the first person.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

2282.421

They've done it, but it didn't have uptake. They've already got that, yeah. When you open the app, they have every single syrup comes in sugar-free and regular. So when I go there, now that I'm on GLPs and I've lost all this weight and I drink less, I just get the Nitro cold brew. It's got zero calories or five calories. I might throw a little cold foam on it.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

2301.05

And then my kids, I do... That's not what the kids want. No, I know. And with the kids, it's critical. What I do with my kids is I do low sweet or like one third sweet. I order one giant one. I pour it into three glasses at home with ice and I cut it with water because it is like drinking... an unbelievable amount of sugar. It is nuts. It's like a milkshake, basically.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

2326.456

That's the thing about coffee. Coffee's supposed to have zero calories, and you put a little half and half in it, and you get the fat, and you're good.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

2339.166

I did a little retail. You did a little retail side quest.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

235.512

I love a good tuna melt. It's a weird sandwich, but they do it so great there. And I keep asking for onion rings for like a decade. And then we don't do onion rings. Tuna melts are good. Yeah. And so suddenly, you know, the team there comes out. They say, J. Cal, we have two different types of onion rings. Please pick which one you like best. I went with the panko crusted Freiburg.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

2414.091

Well, I mean, my kids love Starbucks. We are regular consumers. The app is extraordinary. And I think the key issue here is obviously the inputs and inflation. That's a major driver. But wage inflation is a critical piece of this. Here's a chart for you, just in terms of weekly earnings of full-time workers since Q4 2019.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

2436.566

Starbucks started having a lot of labor movements, a lot of unionization, a lot of complaints from the green aprons, and they have massively raised salaries. They were at $15, $16, $17. A lot of people were going into gig work, door dashing, Uber.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

2453.494

And so this competition for entry-rung employees forced Starbucks, and I know this from the Uber experience and then DoorDash, people wanted to set their own schedules, not be like in a shift work. And so- You could make $20 working for Uber and DoorDash. You're making $15 and you have to drag your ass into Starbucks at 5, 6, 7 a.m. and work a shift and not be able to pick up your kids.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

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That led them to go to like $20, $22 per hour for these baristas. And they continue to raise those rates. They've been very generous with employees. And so I think that's a key piece of it. I think the big story here is going to be automation. I think you're going to see a lot more robotics in these. If you look at, I just had the CEO of what's the salad company that people, sweet greens.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

2502.698

I just had the CEO of sweet greens on this week in startups. And he is all in on automation and they are making salad robots and they've already got two or three stores with them. And his whole concept is it's going to take $3 out of every salad. We have an investment in a company called Cafe X. Nick, you can play a clip of it.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

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These two machines in FSO have broke a million dollars a year in revenue. They are serving a massive number of them, and they've sold a dozen of these to other people. So I think automation is what's going to come to this. I don't think you can sustain it. And the money has to come out of somewhere. And the two big costs it can come out of is the real estate and the employees.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

253.895

These are for you. Delicious panko crusted. And they put them on the menu. So I was so touched.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

2536.675

And I think that's what we're going to see in the very near future is Dunkin'.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

2543.357

You were doing it at Eatsa, right? Were you doing?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

2561.946

So- Explain how that might work and impact a business like that. Unpack a person.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

2626.583

Yeah, and this is a key point. You know, the order complexity is what's killing the baristas there.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

2652.971

Which is what Steve Jobs did, right? With his four quadrants when he took back over. He was like, listen, what's business? What's consumer? What's high end? What's low? What's portable? What's desktop? I forgot what the four quadrants were. And if you look, Freiburg, to your point of the cost savings, right now, the majority of orders in Starbucks, I believe, are coming in through the app.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

2670.948

And what I was told, you know, in some of the buzz I heard from baristas, was that they are prioritizing mobile orders to punish the people online to get them to download the app because that gets rid of cashiers. And McDonald's has no cashiers in a lot of restaurants right now. You just order at a giant touchscreen.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

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So the cashiers will be gone, the cooks will be gone, and eventually the baristas will be gone and it'll just be a couple of people.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

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Also, did you see this incredible clip of him saying he doesn't want anybody working past 6 p.m.? Play this clip. This is like... Oh, this is the Starbucks CEO? The previous Starbucks CEO.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

2735.133

Yeah, fantastic side quest. Let's do it. All right. So now there's a big culture thing going on here, Freeberg, of hard work in corporations. I don't know if you saw Eric Schmidt at Stanford. They took this talk down and Eric Schmidt is walking the comments back. But here we go, folks. This is the money clip from Eric Schmidt.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

29.027

Of course I do. And then with us, of course, your sultan of science. He loves those vegetables. His name is David Friedberg from Berkeley to the Bay. Our boy. How are you doing there, brother? Are you living the lake lifestyle? You have a nice restful August? Loving the outdoors. Good for you. You look so healthy.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

2924.198

So you think this was a PR design genuflect? I like that insight. Sax, your thoughts overall?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

2993.941

I don't think that's... Yeah.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

3001.444

Yeah, I think that is the key insight, Saxon, with you on this, which is leadership starts at the top. If the leader says, hey, listen, don't bother me after six. I'll talk to you at 9 a.m., then that's just going to go through the entire organization. And it's already hard enough to run these organizations.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

3018.191

Now, if you run a lifestyle business as your local cafe, and you want to do that, and you're running it at a break-even, that's fine. This is a publicly traded company with shareholders, with massive competition, who could get taken out by all these other brands that are trying to compete with it. You have to have This is a war. We are at war. We have to figure out how to lower prices.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

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We need to grind every nickel from, you know, the supply chain, rent. We have to renegotiate contracts. And then, you know, just to speak on the work ethic issue, this country is in a very significant war about going back to work and work ethic. You mentioned over-employed and the ethics around that, Chamath. And then there's a group of Americans, and I've been studying this a bit,

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

304.544

Every time they sell one of those onion rings, I get $1 on my account there. So I get a free two and a half. The grift never ends. I don't get anything.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

3060.675

that are opting out of capitalism or hacking capitalism. There's a very interesting movement. It's called FIRE, Financial Independence Retire Early. And if you look at the two subreddits, Overemployed and the FIRE subreddit, young people are saying capitalism is there to be hacked. And my way of hacking it is I'm going to have two jobs.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

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And I had a startup come to me and say, we've got this great engineer, literally from Google, who wants to work from us. and he's making 400K, we can get him for a buck 50. And I said, oh, wow, that's great. Why would he do that? Is he independently wealthy? They said, no, he's keeping his job at Google. He says it takes 10, 20 hours a week, and he's going to work 60 hours a week for us.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

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And I said, is that ethical or legal? And they're like, I don't know. That's why we're asking you. These are 20-year-old founders we had backed. And I was like, this is incredibly unethical, and you're going to get us in a lawsuit. Don't do it. But that is what's, you know, the give and take.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

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And if you look at what happened with Dell this past six months, have you been following that, Freeberg, the Dell story?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

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It's pretty incredible. They told everybody, we're coming back to office. People were like, yeah, I don't want to come back to office. Okay, reasonable. You think you'd do a better job at home? I get it. What they said was, if you want to be work from home, you can't get a promotion and you can't get a salary increase. And you know what employees said? Okay, I don't want an increase.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

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If my choice is stay at home and have no salary increase, then I don't care about a raise. I don't care about a promotion. Then they said, you know what? We're cutting 12,000 people. You have to come back to office. Jay Penske and his company told everybody to have to come back to office. So

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

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Now that you have this era of being fit and you don't need as many people from AI, I think everybody's coming back to the office, unless you are part of the 20% of truly elite workers. Thanks for coming to my TED Talk.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

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Onion rings and Loro Piano. We go high, we go low. They go high, we go low. They go low, we go high. All right, listen, Tremont's big outcome is on the table. But DOJ is looking at breaking up Google. This is huge news in our industry. Last week, we talked about the ruling that Google had an illegal monopoly in search and advertising. The case was brought by Trump's DOJ back in 2020.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

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The technical term for that is collisions. And there's been a lot of research on random collisions. And I agree wholeheartedly with it.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

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And, you know, in fairness, I think a lot of young people have not been mentored because they came up in the COVID generation and we're now four years later and they just haven't had the chance to be mentored or be in an office. And a lot of senior executives and CEOs are not coming to the office. You know, a part of my move to Austin is,

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

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I'm building a theater to record the podcast in and I'm building an incubator space and we're moving back to in-person.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

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I grandfathered the existing employees and I'm only hiring people in-person now because I feel something very big has been lost in terms of meeting with founders in-person and young people seeing me interact and my other senior team members with those founders in-person during a pitch meeting, during a product jam session, during a fundraising review. Yeah.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive

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Schmott said, two outcomes are possible. Little O, big O. Little O, consent decree, you know, like Microsoft did back in 2000 with the Internet Explorer decision. The big O We didn't think that was a major possibility, but here we are. Google getting broken up. DOJ is going big O. On Wednesday, Bloomberg reported the DOJ is considering a breakup.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

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I agree 100%. And one of my first jobs working at Land Systems, my mentor, Mike Savino, was always working late. He was trying to move up in the organization and I wouldn't leave before he left. And then he would walk by and he'd say, it was in New York City. Hey, what are you working on? I'm reading these Novell networking books. I'm trying to get my certification. I'm trying to learn more.

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I want to get out of hardware and get into software. And he'd say, oh, I'm going to get some dinner. You want to come? Now, he was four levels above me in the organization. I was the lowest. He was second to the highest. And then I got to go to dinner with him. And then I got to hear about all the big clients. I got to hear how, you know, they were doing the pitches.

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And then he started including me in pitches. And all of a sudden, I went from four degrees from him to reporting into him. And that's how I learned, you know, look at the person on the left. Look at the person on the right. Were you a CME? I was, I don't think I, yeah, I was actually, I was a certified network engineer.

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I mean, if you had that in the 90s, you could make, you know, 50, 75, 100K.

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Absolutely. And if you want to be a freelancer, be a freelancer. Okay. Let's go to our little election update and some news about Kamala. and a little bit of socialism coming. So here's how I set it up today. We'll see how this goes. 2024 election update is here. I'm going to do two things, gentlemen.

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I'm going to just tee up the latest polls, and then I ask our crack all-in research team to just give me the top couple of issues in the principal's own words, the principals being the press on either side, and the four people who are running for office. So let's just go through the numbers here. Nate Silver, a friend of the pod, now has Kamala Harris at 57% favorite to win the Electoral College.

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There's your first chart. You can compare this to what happened with Biden before the hot swap. Trump had a 73% probability to win the Electoral College. So that is the swing of all swings. And obviously a lot has happened since then, as well as the assassination attempt on Trump. Massive swing for Harris, as you can see in Nate Silver's chart. He's doing something called silver bullets.

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He's not a 538 anymore, but this is the most telling chart. You can see Biden-Trump there, and it's almost a clean sweep in red. And then you go to Harris-Trump, and the shift has been 100% blue. Pretty dramatic. Harris has flipped, according to Silver, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Virginia. Here's a couple of quotes, and then we'll get into it.

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The big critique from Republicans this past week is that Harris won't do interviews. God, it's just ridiculous that they have not sat for interviews. And meanwhile, Trump is doing every podcast and Twitter spaces on the planet. But the big news... is that this might have changed by the time you listen to this podcast.

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According to the article, most likely breakup targets are Android OS, Google Chrome, and Android. AdWords. Okay. Last time the government tried to break up a monopoly was 20 years ago when they tried and failed to dismantle Microsoft. We know how that's gone. The company's doing great. So let's talk about it. Aside from search and advertising, there's kind of five pillars at Google.

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Everybody knows we tape out Thursdays for the world's number one podcast, and it comes out on Fridays. Washington Post, Jeff Stein reported that Kamala Harris will propose the first ever federal ban on corporate price gouging for food and groceries on Friday. I'm going to hand that off to you, Freeberg, to detail. I'm going to throw up. Take it easy. We're going to get there.

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You're going to get your rare vegetables in a second. So the other, you're going to get your, you're going to get your veggies sashimi soon. All right. From the JD Vance corner, he is questioning Tim Waltz's service. Here's the quote. Well, I wonder, Tim Waltz, when were you ever in war? When was this Paris campaign responding in his 24 years of service?

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The governor carried fired and trained others to use weapons in war in new boom, innumerable times, yada, yada, yada, a lot of back and forth there about that issue. But let's get to and there was an incredible two hour spaces. Audio is a little rough. But the content was great. Elon had a conversation with Trump, and they talked about nuclear power.

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Elon offered his services two or three times to Trump. He's asked to do efficiency in the government and maybe cut some costs. But that's what happened notably in the last week. Freeberg, what's your take on... This reported by the Washington Post, and I think confirmed by Politico, moved by Kamala Harris. Thank you for asking. Thank you for asking. Do you have any feelings on it?

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And then you're a former Googler, so we'll go to you first, Freeberg, I think. Cloud, $40 billion in revenue, growing 30%. YouTube, $34 billion, growing 15%. A little volatile because it's advertising. That doesn't include premium YouTube TV and that stuff. But, oh my lord, YouTube is up to 2.7 billion monthly active users. World population is 8.2, so quite significant.

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Netflix has $38 billion in revenue. They're worth almost $300 billion, so that's an interesting corollary. You got Waymo doing 50,000 paid trips a week now. 2.5 million... a year, and that's growing quite nicely. You got Android, right? They don't disclose revenue. You got the G Suite. So let's start with you, Freeberg, and then I'll go to you, Chamath, because you made the prediction.

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Okay. Thanks for coming to Freebrook's TED Talk. Chamath, yes, you're nodding strongly in agreement. This is just dumb and pandering. Am I correct?

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Sacks, any thoughts? Overall election and this specific issue. You take it either way you like.

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Yeah, and so just to be clear with everybody, we don't have the actual policy here, but it's been reported. Seems like it's true, maybe it's not, maybe they step it back. We don't know the details of this at all, but we do know it's just been tried before.

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What we do know is there are times when you could, like in an economic emergency, like during what was the giant hurricane or wars, you can keep your eye on this. But the truth is, as we just talked about with Starbucks, You know, Saks is like, I got a free cup of coffee or close to free. I make my own cold brew, shout out Cafe Du Monde, because I don't want to pay $8 for one. The market responds.

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What do you think would be accretive or generally increase the market cap and be something that Google would be happy with and the government would be happy with if you had to maybe shed one or two properties? What's a possible outcome here?

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And when you put your thumb on capitalism, when you put 12 thumbs on capitalism and on the scale, all kinds of weird behaviors occur. It does not work. And consumers can just simply opt out. They can make breakfast at home. They can brown bag their lunch. And you know what? Then companies are going to be like, holy shit. People are not buying $8 coffees. Let's make a cheaper happy meal.

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I remain undecided, moderate, left-leaning moderate, have voted Republican 35% of the time, Democrat 65% of the time. And I've been studying the strategy here. Her strategy is crushing Trump. So obviously it's working. Now, I don't like it. I think everybody should be doing debates. I was really upset that there wasn't a debate or a speed run primary.

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I don't like the fact that Trump and Biden skipped out on the primary debates. I think they should be forced to do debates, forced to do interviews. And so on that front, I hate what this is doing to democracy. Now, pragmatically, Running out the clock as a strategy and not defining your positions too much and just selling the vibes is a brilliant strategy and it's working.

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And as Trump said, the VPs don't matter. What she did as VP doesn't really matter. What JD Vance thinks as VP doesn't matter. VPs don't matter. You're voting for the president, the VPs get in line. Trump's positions, JD Vance flipped a bunch of his positions to align with Trump. And I think Kamala did the same when she worked with Biden.

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That's your job is to align with the president now that she's her own. And Waltz is going to flip to her. So I think they're putting out moderate vibes. I think they're kind of socialists. I think they're not as socialist as Bernie and Elizabeth Warren, but they're not moderates, but they're pretending to be moderates. And that is working as a strategy. They are demolishing Trump.

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And then Trump is, you know, getting bad advice around him. I think, you know, if I was to handicap this and I'll wrap up, it would just one more minute. I think Trump was so good on all in. He was so good at the RNC for the first half of his speech. When he is presidential, when he has a big open tent, I love him. I think he's great.

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And I think he's like world positive when he goes into grievance. culture, when he goes after the race stuff like he did with the black journalists, when he goes after gender or J.D. does the gender stuff and the cat stuff. I hate that stuff. Moderates hates that stuff. Women hate that stuff. And the moderates and the women in the swing states will decide the election.

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And Trump's campaign is floundering right now. They have to get they have to flip it back to that Trump 2.0 I described many times where he's serious presidential, not bullying people, not doing the incel comic thing, this going after waltz, going after cat ladies. It's just gross and not necessary. So I think maybe Trump, after the DNC, will go back to Trump 2.0. That would be much better.

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And I think Trump has a chance of winning if he does that. If Kamala goes moderate, I think she's going to win. So that's my strategic take. I remain undecided as a voter.

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I think in her heart, she's between like if you had Clinton and a great question, if you had Clinton and you had a, you know, Bernie Sanders, I think she kind of falls between the two. But I think she's pretending to be a moderate to get votes.

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You know, just like Trump will pretend to be super right wing to get the, you know, or act it up. But he's kind of a moderate to socially.

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I think they're preparing their policies and they're going to drop them after the DNC. Chamath, what's your take on strategy? And then we'll move on to Science Corner.

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So it's dumb. We haven't seen it, but it seems dumb on its face. And just to be clear, there is no proposal. We're just commenting on reports of a proposal. Proposal will probably come out on Friday this weekend. So you can read it for yourselves. And we'll talk about the actual proposal. If there is one, who knows? It could be bad reporting, could all be capped.

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Freeberg, you wanted to talk about Boeing.

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You said, just to confirm, you said it was $4.2 billion, that contract.

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And just to be clear, Chamath, the statistics are three for Starliner, two unmanned, one manned. And then for SpaceX with the Dragon, they did 11, eight with NASA, three commercially with other passengers, yeah? Yeah.

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SAC's one of the great things about this. Thank God NASA gave two contracts out of the, hey, give him one.

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You would be asking the Russians to go get them. And then like, you know, we're in a little, I don't know if you've been watching this. This is what I thought we could discuss. It's like, you know, is there a benefit in having two? Being dependent on Putin, at this moment in time when Ukraine is making massive gains into Russian territory.

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I know this hasn't come up all that much, but that would be really dangerous.

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Yeah, I think we've pretty much beaten that capitalism is the greatest force for innovation and lowering prices. Sax, your thoughts on this situation? And helping humanity. Yeah, God forbid people will get air conditioning at a lower price, you know, and smartphones, et cetera. Sax, your thoughts here?

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I love your capitalism quote and reminds me of the Winston Churchill one, which I'm sure you've heard. The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings. The inherent virtue of socialism is the equal sharing of miseries.

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Teddy Roosevelt. I would love to go drinking with Teddy and Cigars Guns.

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Freberg, please don't bring up this whole thing about baths because then you're going to make me pull out of my phone the three or four times you called me from the bath and I took a screenshot. I literally, Freberg's in the bath. He lights candles. He takes a picture of his pale stems and he sends it to me and calls me from the bathroom. You can't see him. I have PTSD.

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Yeah, the Wall Street Journal report, just to give people the background of why we're talking about this, the Wall Street Journal reported that Germans' investigation into this, you know, the people who were impacted by it. Here's the quote.

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The whole thing was born out of a night of heavy boosting and the iron determination of a handful of people who had the guts to risk their lives for the country. The Ukraine operation cost around $300,000, according to people who participated in it. Bob, the small rented yacht with a six member crew, including trained civilian divers. One was a woman whose presence helped create the illusion.

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They were a group of friends on a pleasure cruise. So you're saying you don't believe that German report?

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Just to give you some facts, to introduce some facts here, it was only 260 feet or so down where they blew it up. I've dove to 130, 140 feet many times. You can easily dive 300, 400, 500 feet. This is not difficult. I could dive to 260 feet with one day of training, and I've done half of that. And I've only dived 25 times in my life. So this is easily accomplished, Sax.

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And so this sounds like it's dead on. I mean, I know you don't want to.

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Yeah, it's very simple. I mean, you're literally attaching it to a pipe and you hit, boom. I mean, these people are... The Ukraine people are... I think it required a massive amount of explosives to do something like this. No, it does not. In the face of Ukraine defending itself against Russia, one of the greatest militaries on the planet...

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This idea that that same group of people who have held Russian at bay for two years plus can't go down 260 feet and blow it up is ridiculous. They could easily do this. This is not a difficult task. Super easy for the Ukraine army to do this.

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I don't think you're in a position to know. I am because I have facts. 260 feet down, I've dove to 130. It's very easy to go 260. It's the end. That's your facts. I mean, it's just called reality, Chamath. I'm sorry. Sax is the most biased person in the world when it comes to this.

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He's saying it's too difficult. Sacks' premise is this is beyond the capability of the Ukraine army. That's ridiculous, Sacks. It's easily. Well, a lot of people are dumb then. It is the stupidest concept.

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Dude, I bought pineapples. That's a quarter stick of dynamite when I was in Brooklyn.

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Easily. Easily. Six Ukrainians. These are hardcore mofos. You think these Ukrainians are not hardcore? They probably did it drunk. They did it drunk. I bet you they were half in the bag when they blew that shit up.

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And you'd like to see them win versus Russia and get Russia out of their country, right?

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Okay, okay. Who would you rather wins the war, Russia or Ukraine, if you had to pick? Who would you rather see win?

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Yeah, I'm for peace deals too. I'm also for democracies beating autocracies. Okay, everybody, this has been another amazing episode of- So let's get canceled elections. This has been another amazing episode of the All In podcast for the Rain Man, yeah, David Sachs, the one and only Sultan of Science, David Freeberg, getting ready for the All In Summit, sold out.

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Great speakers, lots of surprises for y'all. And our chairman dictator, so rested, so tan, working 15 hours a day in Italy, and we'll talk about wine.

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Oh, yum, yum. I slid a little Betsky in there. All right, everybody. I am world's greatest moderator and the executive producer for life. Love you, boys. See you next time, everybody. Bye-bye. Bye-bye.

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And now, the plugs. The All In Summit is taking place in Los Angeles, September 8th, 9th, and 10th. You can apply for tickets, summit.allinpodcast.co. And you can subscribe to this show on YouTube. Yes, watch all the videos. Our YouTube channel has passed 500,000 subscribers. Shout out to Donnie from Queens. Follow the show, x.com slash the all in pod. TikTok, the all in pod.

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Instagram, the all in pod. LinkedIn, search for all in podcast. And to follow Chamath, he's x.com slash Chamath. Sign up for his weekly email. What I read this week at chamath.substack.com and sign up for a developer account at console.grok.com and see what all the excitement is about. Follow Sachs at x.com slash davidsachs and sign up for Glue at glue.ai. Follow Friedberg, x.com slash friedberg.

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And Ohalo is hiring. Click on the careers page at ohalogenetics.com. I am the world's greatest moderator, Jason Calacanis. If you are a founder and you want to come to my accelerators and my programs, founder.university, launch.close.apply to apply for funding from your boy, JCal, for your startup. And check out athenowow.com.

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All right, Shamatha, you predicted the possibility of a big O. Here we are. Your thoughts on what this might look like, chances of it happening, and then just maybe if you're interested in the anti-success approach here, or do you think this is more valid criticism of Google's massive search monopoly?

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This is the company I am most excited about at the moment, athenowow.com, to get a virtual assistant for about $3,000 a month. I have two of them. Thanks for tuning in to the world's number one podcast. You can help by telling just two friends. That's all I ask. Forward. this podcast to two friends and say, this is the world's greatest podcast. You got to check it out.

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It'll make you smarter and make you laugh, laugh while learning. We'll see you all next time. Bye-bye.

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What'd you do? A little portobello mushrooms? What'd you do? You put a little zucchini on the grill?

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Absolutely, you do. All right. And everybody's favorite, the chairman dictator, Chamath Palihapitiya. You love him, you hate him, but you can't ignore him. How are you doing? Look at the number of buttons here. You got the mouth collar on, and I don't think any of those buttons are buttons.

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You became a meme once again. Once again, the All In Podcast, creating memes. You were swirling. You were swirling a little white wand last week. You were in the arena. And I'm putting up all the numbers, going macro, and you're swirling wine. The audience loved it. What's going on today?