Faisal Islam
Appearances
Global News Podcast
Myanmar declares week of mourning as death toll rises following earthquake
The smoke signals are that President Trump wants to go big, bigger than expected. Much now hinges on the reports from his trade advisers on the policies of every country in the world which arrive on his desk. Until the weekend, it had been assumed that a select group of the biggest economies would face US tariffs based on the perceived unfairness of their trade policies.
Global News Podcast
Myanmar declares week of mourning as death toll rises following earthquake
Now, the talk in Washington is again of something much bigger, a flat tariff on all imports as high as 20%. His senior trade advisor, Pete Navarro, talked of raising $6 trillion of revenue over a decade. For context, total goods imports in just one year are $3.3 trillion.
Global News Podcast
Myanmar declares week of mourning as death toll rises following earthquake
These sums seem wildly optimistic because the tariffs will significantly divert trade and patterns of supply and demand, but they do indicate the historic scale of the plans. Such moves are designed to help restore manufacturing and related jobs, for example for cars, back to the US. But there will be wide-scale counter-retaliatory tariffs that will cost US exports too.
Global News Podcast
Myanmar declares week of mourning as death toll rises following earthquake
Separately, as is already evident in Canada and Europe, consumers may start to join in boycotts for some high-profile US products. What is clear, however, is that the US administration wants to change the geography of the world economy.
Global News Podcast
Myanmar declares week of mourning as death toll rises following earthquake
The world economy enters a critical 24 hours of profound uncertainty, with other negotiators clear that the ultimate decisions here are really down to one man, President Trump himself.
Global News Podcast
President Trump announces sweeping tariffs on US imports
Well, I think people are still digesting the details. Clearly, what we have here is a 10 percent universal tariff that is then added to, as we've all seen on that famous chart now where the U.S. suggests certain levels of tariff. And President Trump said he was being kind in only applying half in return.
Global News Podcast
President Trump announces sweeping tariffs on US imports
Well, the level of tariff assumed in that chart that is levied by the other country, I think that was subject to some debate. It isn't the traditional level, the number that you see in the World Trade Organization tables, for example. It includes all sorts of other things like VAT, regulations on agricultural imports and that sort of thing.
Global News Podcast
President Trump announces sweeping tariffs on US imports
So I think the premise that these are entirely reciprocal will be questioned by other countries. There is a certain degree of reciprocity, though, in terms of the amount that has been levied. And so I think the sense in the UK amongst politicians is, well, it could have been worse. 10 percent is highly material, though. It's worth six to seven billion pounds in terms of the export flows to the US.
Global News Podcast
President Trump announces sweeping tariffs on US imports
And many people in the UK who will see. The US government has acknowledged that on the US-owned measures, there is a surplus. The US has a surplus. It sells more into the UK than the UK sells to the US. So why is there a rationale for any sort of tariff at all against the UK with the special relationship?
Global News Podcast
President Trump announces sweeping tariffs on US imports
But then I also think that we're seeing now just the beginnings of the stock market reaction in terms of futures markets. Some sharp falls suggested. Intriguingly, although not particularly surprisingly... For apparel companies, clothing companies, of course, the really notable surprise here is the very high numbers on a number of smaller countries like Vietnam, Cambodia, Bangladesh.
Global News Podcast
President Trump announces sweeping tariffs on US imports
You were talking about this a moment ago, which have significant surpluses with the US, which are essential to the supply chains of some of America's biggest companies. The bottom line here is it appears that Donald Trump wants to stop that flow of trade. He wants those deficits to go back to zero.
Global News Podcast
President Trump announces sweeping tariffs on US imports
Now, that either happens by America selling more to these countries or those countries selling less to the US. So this is absolutely critical. Will these flows happen? And if they don't, what's going to happen is the US prices are going to go up.
Global News Podcast
President Trump announces sweeping tariffs on US imports
the prices that they pay in shops that source from Bangladesh and Cambodia and Vietnam, and there is trade worth hundreds of billions from those sorts of countries, those prices will go up.