Burgess Everett
Appearances
Today, Explained
Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”
No, I actually don't think so, because I think the reason both of these bills have have experienced some turbulence is is they just get too big. And it's hard to kind of give an underlying theory of the case of why you're doing it right. Ostensibly, this time, Republicans want to prevent tax rates from increasing at the end of the year.
Today, Explained
Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”
And I think there's a very low chance that those tax rates will increase no matter what happens with this bill. And so I do think a lot of other Republicans recognize that. And and so when you're now talking about Medicaid cuts, when you're now talking about food stamps and snap aid, when you're talking about defense spending.
Today, Explained
Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”
All of these new things, it's gotten tied up in what was kind of a singular priority. You also have Trump's tax cuts that he talked about on the campaign that have become wrapped up in this as well. And so I think you can make an argument that putting all those things together works. offers sweeteners to people and more opportunities to get their votes.
Today, Explained
Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”
But I also think at some point the bill can become so big that each change to one part of the bill affects your folks on another side of the conference. And so we're seeing that play out in real time. And we're seeing Trump's Tuesday visit to the Hill.
Today, Explained
Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”
As an attempt to sort of say, hey, forget all that. Just pass something now so that the Senate can take this up and we can work together with them to pass a law. And we'll see if that works. It's really a policy disagreement versus political sheer force of will that we're seeing from the president. America is back.
Today, Explained
Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”
That's won out a lot in the past, but I don't think there's a guarantee that it wins out this time.
Today, Explained
Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”
Yeah, I think I think it's the biggest one. I mean, I also think I think there's two. And you hear a lot about salt, the state and local tax deduction. It's really a house blue state Republican issue. These folks want basically tax relief for their constituents who already pay high taxes.
Today, Explained
Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”
So you don't have the biggest changes that conservatives wanted to put in here. That was basically cutting the federal share of the Medicaid expansion or capping it in some way. That was construed by a bunch of Senate Republicans as benefit cuts because it would probably lead to states providing less Medicaid expansion to their beneficiaries. So those are off the table.
Today, Explained
Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”
What you've ended up with is these co-pays on some Medicaid expansion folks. There's going to be end to the provider tax, which is basically just a way that states use to get more federal funding. There's also work requirements for Medicaid expansion, and you need to prove citizenship for the most part, although there may be some exceptions to that to get Medicaid benefits.
Today, Explained
Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”
So those are kind of like the core four things. I think there's pretty broad agreement on the work requirements. and the citizenship requirements. The other two issues have... I was just talking to some senators about this just now.
Today, Explained
Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”
The other two issues could be problematic, and I'm not sure Trump quite understands exactly what they would do, but plenty of Republicans think they would eventually amount to benefit cuts.
Today, Explained
Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”
Correct. So the loudest person you're going to hear on this is Josh Hawley.
Today, Explained
Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”
He's got an op-ed in the New York Times. He'll tell you, anyone that wants to listen to him, which is many people at this point, because reporters love intra-party drama, that he thinks this is a bad idea because a lot of Trump voters are on Medicaid.
Today, Explained
Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”
And so his argument is that you're essentially cutting the benefits of your own voters. And he thinks it's bad politics and he's trying to stop it.
Today, Explained
Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”
I think he is because you hear Trump talk about, you know, don't F around with Medicaid.
Today, Explained
Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”
So, I mean, the message is there and he's been pretty consistent on that, but not to use too much of a cliche, but the devil's in the details. And when you look at the details of the proposed Medicaid changes, it would lead to widespread coverage losses, millions of coverage losses. I think Republicans are comfortable with the coverage losses from the work requirements.
Today, Explained
Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”
The question is whether they're comfortable with further coverage losses than that. And I think the answer Right now is no.
Today, Explained
Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”
I think on the vibes of the moment, yes, I think so. One thing that works pretty consistently is a shirts and skins exercise, which is the Democrats aren't going to help us. We need to be together as a team. The Democrats are loving that we're divided. Right. And so to the extent that he's building unity within his party, I think it was pretty effective.
Today, Explained
Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”
But I've been looking at all the comments from these House members. The conservatives don't seem like they're swayed. And over here, I do think there's a Medicaid gap between what the House is doing and what the Senate is willing to do.
Today, Explained
Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”
So I don't see necessarily a ton of movement on those structural things, but I do think it was a useful team building exercise, I think, for them to hear from the president.
Today, Explained
Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”
I think they need to figure out whether they need to take more time with it and get it as close as they can to how they think it could become law. Or do they need to say, we have argued about this enough. Let's let these other folks argue about it and see if they can make this bill better. and see what can pass the Senate.
Today, Explained
Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”
And then you may see another protracted negotiation between the two chambers of Congress if they end up on different pages, which is, I think, pretty likely at this point, because the House seems like it might pass something that the Senate doesn't like, the Senate might pass something that the House doesn't like, and then they might have to reconcile them. This could take months further.
Today, Explained
Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”
The biggest deadline is December 31st. I give that an asterisk because this also includes a debt ceiling increase in it, which is something we haven't even talked about, which is a really important thing. It's one of the hardest things to do on Capitol Hill and one of the most important things to do so that you don't default on your debt.
Today, Explained
Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”
We already see credit ratings for our country are not as top-notch as they used to be. That's in part because of these debt limit fights. And so... We call it the X date on Capitol Hill, which is the last drop dead moment when they would need to pass a debt ceiling increase. And it looks like that's going to be late summer, early fall.
Today, Explained
Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”
So you could always bring that out of this big, beautiful bill and pass it on its own. But as long as it's lumped in there, it does give you a little bit of a ticking time bomb of when this needs to pass.
Today, Explained
Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”
I think very frustrated because I think the reason he's here this week, the reason he's taking time out of his schedule to come to Congress, not I mean, Joe Biden did it, but it's not something that happens every day.
Today, Explained
Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”
The reason he's doing that is he's impatient and he wants them to stop basically the circular firing squad to stop spinning their wheels, move forward, because ultimately it's not a great referendum on him if his signature piece of legislation is struggling to get through Congress. And so I think he wants a shot in the arm momentum wise from this getting through the House.
Today, Explained
Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”
I would think they've learned their lesson from the Affordable Care Act repeal and won't hold a big party at the White House after they pass the first version of this through the House because the Senate ultimately killed that bill. But I do think like this is a president who wants a legislative shot in the arm.
Today, Explained
Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”
There's only been a handful of new laws signed this Congress, I believe is one of the least productive initial spurts for a new president in a long time. And so I think he wants to turn that around and he's doing it by lumping so many things into one bill. But if that one bill stalls, it doesn't look like there's much of a path for anything else to get through.