Bradley Parks
Appearances
WSJ What’s News
China Reins In Its Infrastructure Strategy But Not Its Global Ambition
Beijing war auf einem Lendenspray und jetzt haben seine Verhörer es schwierig, ihre Steuern zu bezahlen. Also 80 Prozent des China-Overseas-Lending-Portfolios unterstützen gerade Länder in finanziellem Schmerz. Und mit den Grasperioden auf vielen chinesischen Löhnen, die ausgelaufen sind, befindet sich Beijing jetzt in einer unbequemen Position als der weltweit größte offizielle Steuerkollektor.
WSJ What’s News
China Reins In Its Infrastructure Strategy But Not Its Global Ambition
So, I mean, here's the thing. Beijing is not going to stand by and watch its flagship global infrastructure initiative crash and burn. The Chinese authorities have already launched a far-reaching effort to de-risk Belt and Road, and they call it BRI 2.0. Beijing is scanning its global portfolio and firefighting in response to crises.
WSJ What’s News
China Reins In Its Infrastructure Strategy But Not Its Global Ambition
So it's refocusing its time and its money on distressed borrowers Das war's für heute. Bis zum nächsten Mal.
WSJ What’s News
China Reins In Its Infrastructure Strategy But Not Its Global Ambition
Wir sehen immer mehr westliche Verkaufsbanken, Deutsche Bank, ING Bank, HSBC, die in diesen größeren Lohn-Syndikaten mit chinesischen Banken teilnehmen, sowie multilaterale Institutionen wie die Europäische Bank für Reconstruktion und Entwicklung in London. Also, ja, syndiziertes Lenden ist eine Feature, anstatt ein Bug.
WSJ What’s News
China Reins In Its Infrastructure Strategy But Not Its Global Ambition
In Beldum Road 2.0 ist etwa 50 Prozent des Projektlohnportfolios jetzt durch Syndikate vorhanden.
WSJ What’s News
China Reins In Its Infrastructure Strategy But Not Its Global Ambition
Wenn du jetzt in Beijing sitzt und einen globalen Dashboard des China's Overseas Infrastructure Project Portfolios schaust, siehst du viele flaschende rote Lichter.
WSJ What’s News
China Reins In Its Infrastructure Strategy But Not Its Global Ambition
The so-called good borrowers are not governments, you know, because there's so much debt distress in the developing world. So what's happening is big Chinese state-owned companies are first securing loans from Chinese state-owned commercial banks. Then they're saying, I'm going to issue a subsidiary loan to the government of Nicaragua, as an example.
WSJ What’s News
China Reins In Its Infrastructure Strategy But Not Its Global Ambition
And so when the company essentially becomes the bank, they want extra money. ... in place. They're doubling up or tripling up on safeguards. And they're saying, look, cash collateral is not enough. I need that. Plus, I need you, the borrower, to buy a credit insurance policy. And that additional credit insurance policy might be worth 5 to 7 percent of the nominal value of the loan.
WSJ What’s News
China Reins In Its Infrastructure Strategy But Not Its Global Ambition
So the price of debt is going up for borrowers in the developing world.
WSJ What’s News
China Reins In Its Infrastructure Strategy But Not Its Global Ambition
We are seeing a marked shift towards projects that are focused on the extraction and export of a small set of critical minerals that are necessary to fuel the clean energy transition. So we're talking about copper, cobalt, lithium, rare earth minerals and a couple of others. So that is a key feature of Belt and Road 2.0.
WSJ What’s News
China Reins In Its Infrastructure Strategy But Not Its Global Ambition
And Chinese companies are also trying to gobble up market share in a variety of renewable energy sectors, whether that's solar, wind, hydro. There's a concerted effort by the banks and the companies to cement the competitiveness of Chinese companies around the globe in these clean energy sectors.
WSJ What’s News
China Reins In Its Infrastructure Strategy But Not Its Global Ambition
They have also tried to muscle their way to the front of the repayment line by requiring something that their competitors do not require. And that is that governments keep cash collateral in lender-controlled escrow accounts that Beijing can unilaterally debit with a keystroke, right? They could just grab that cash and pay themselves in the event of default.
WSJ What’s News
China Reins In Its Infrastructure Strategy But Not Its Global Ambition
Also auf dem Papier würde ich sagen, dass China gut positioniert ist, um einen großen Windfall zu erzielen. Aber ich denke, in der Praxis ist die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass es so aussehen wird, wie sie es denken, nicht ganz so hoch.
WSJ What’s News
China Reins In Its Infrastructure Strategy But Not Its Global Ambition
Als China zuerst in das Emergency-Rescue-Lending-Business kam, war es unter der optimistischen Überzeugung, dass einige ihrer größten Anbieter kurzfristige Bridge-Finanzierung benötigen mussten. zu einem Sturm, der bald übergehen würde. Aber ich denke, es wird jetzt gelernt, dass einige seiner größten Beld & Rode-Berufer tatsächlich insolvent sind.
WSJ What’s News
China Reins In Its Infrastructure Strategy But Not Its Global Ambition
I would say that they are still actively firefighting and they're going to be firefighting for many years to come. They're doing serial bailouts year after year. So ultimately, to get out of this, China may have to take financial losses. The big question for China is how quickly it will learn and adapt to what it's seeing in its portfolio.