Bill Roggio
Appearances
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
Yeah, so right now, the main focus of the operation is in Rafah and communists in southern Gaza. The Israeli military... For them to occupy, look, 2 million people in Gaza. It's a large area. The Israeli military isn't built for this. They're built to fight. quick, fast-strike, high-technology-type wars, something like an occupation.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
The Israeli doesn't have that kind of manpower in their military. I think we've heard the Israelis say time and time again since this war began that its objective is to defeat Hamas. And yet here we are well over a year and a half since the October 17, 2023 attack. And Hamas is still in the fight. I think it's going to be difficult. The Israelis have to be smart about this.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
The only thing I could think here is that I do see some evidence that the people in Gaza are starting to grow tired of Hamas. We've seen a couple of instances of protests. Now, Hamas has responded to that by going out and beating and executing the ringleaders of these protests.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
which shows that they still have staying power and that they still can wield the stick, particularly amongst their own people. for the Israelis to completely, you know, to occupy 75% of Gaza. Well, then what about that other 25%? Is this where Hamas slips into in order to slip away from the Israeli Defense Force and bide their time?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
We've seen this in, you know, the insurgencies that we fought, particularly in Afghanistan and in Iraq over time. So, call me skeptical that it can be successful, that the Israelis can succeed here, but Maybe but maybe they can. They certainly have to try because raids and airstrikes that they've been doing over the last year and a half, of course, they have inserted ground forces.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
That just hasn't worked. I do think they need to try here. But I do have a lot of questions as to whether the Israeli military and Israeli society, because their military is primarily made up of the service. So. of all of these call up reservists that are going to have to be focusing on occupying Gaza are unable to go to their jobs and contribute to the Israeli economy.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
So there's a lot of difficulties. It's fraught with problems, both militarily and within the, you know, politically and within the civilian population for the Israelis to maintain the type of occupation that I think they would need to maintain in order to truly defeat Hamas and Gaza.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
Yeah, absolutely. And you have to remember, so look, support for Moss has certainly dipped, but by all accounts, it's somewhere in the most 50% of the population. Now, could that be because the people are afraid, you know, the pollsters? Maybe it's 30%. But-
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
you know the numbers with there's multiple studies on this and who knows what the real percentage is you know there's lies damn lies and statistics but they say anywhere from two to five percent of the population is what a successful insurgency needs to to maintain itself so let's say that number is 25 or 20 or 30 who knows what the truly the sport is the reality is is that the support amongst the people in gaza for hamas is still high the people have been indoctrinated
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
for decades by Hamas. This was the real danger. You know, it's interesting, right? Like, I'm going to make an Afghanistan comparison here. The Israelis withdrew from Gaza in, what, 2005 or 2006. And the thought was they could isolate it. And... You know, just let them be and they won't have any reason. And here we are two decades later. And the problem is metastasizing.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
And Hamas still remains in control of Gaza, even if it's tenuous. U.S. invaded Afghanistan to to eject the Taliban from power. And here we are two decades later. The Taliban is back in power. Maybe we need to learn something about how we engage with terrorist organizations that are more than terrorist organizations and that have outside support.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
Maybe that's where the Israelis in the West, the problem is as much of the West isn't supportive from us now. Look at Europe and their attitudes towards Israel. The Israelis have a real long-term problem when it comes to Hamas. Hamas just needs to figure out how to bide their time, how to wait out the Israeli offensive and just move back in when the Israelis tire.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
No, I agree. I mean, that new generation, the young male, the military age male or even younger than that. I mean, when you look at the destruction in Gaza, what do they have to lose? On one hand, I don't blame the Israelis. On the other hand, the Israelis have been far too kind for what the people of Gaza did. It's not just Hamas, right?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
The Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the PLFP and the alphabet soup of terrorist organizations that emanate from Gaza, as well as the West Bank, celebrating that attack on Israel. On one hand, what would our response be if the cartels did? on the scale of what to the United States, to American citizens with the what Hamas and company did to the Israelis, I can only imagine.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
I mean, I think me and my friends would certainly be rounding up and going to Texas to exact some revenge for what, you know, for 20,000 plus American dead in an attack, a horrific attack like that.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
but as you know those consequences to that does it create another generation is it is the destruction that israel has leveled upon the people of gaza has it just given them no no other opportunity but to fight you know i i'm torn on this issue but that ultimately i don't you know i kind of come down on the side here that These Israelis have tried to play nice for decades. They left Gaza.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
They ended the occupation in the mid-2000s to leave Gaza and the Palestinians to govern on their own. And they were repaid by multiple attacks, being rockets, missiles, balloons, incendiary balloons, terrorists coming across the border to kill people and rammings and shootings. And ultimately, the pogrom that occurred on October 7th, 2023 happened. You know, what other option do the Israelis have?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
I mean, how much longer could they turn the other cheek?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
Yeah, that one seems to have gone by the wayside. The Trump administration, if they were serious about this, I think this was something that would have been better handled behind closed doors. Although part of me wonders if this is the Trump negotiating style of going in, you know, going...
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
you know, taking a swing for the Grand Slam and then possibly hoping to get, you know, a single or a double here. I, you know, far be it for me to understand the mind of Trump and his foreign policy team. I look at what happened in Syria and I'm perplexed that the president
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
even if he wanted to reengage with Syria and lift sanctions, why he would sit down with a person who's still on the list of specially designated global terrorists. So, you know, I've given up on trying to figure out what the Trump administration's, what their end game is and how they handle negotiations.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
But to me, if I was to do this, I think this is something that would have been better handled, at least at the outset to be on behind closed doors. It certainly is a threat. The reality is, look, I've learned this in my travels to the Middle East in the early, I'm sorry, the mid 2000s. You know, while Middle Easterners profess to support the Palestinian people, they don't like them.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
The Iraqis didn't like that the Palestinians sided with Saddam Hussein. And while they don't like Israel, they also have a distaste for the Palestinians who they believe to be entitled to suck up a lot of the oxygen in the room, to receive all of the international aid and all of those things. So... A lot of countries, they just don't want that problem.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
I mean, where are they going to go to Jordan, where they have their own Palestinian problem? The Jordanian regime is terrified of their Palestinian population. The Egyptians. You know, the only reason they tolerate the Palestinians is as a foil against the Israelis. They're just, you know, I've realized I'm generalizing here, but there just isn't a lot of like for the Palestinians.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
And that's why I think ultimately, you know, why would these countries, why would Egypt, why would the Saudis, I heard like Somalia was a landing ground. That's a country with its own problems. They want Palestinian troublemakers when they're dealing with an Al-Qaeda insurgency that controls 40% of the country. Yeah. A lot of this just doesn't make sense.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
I think that's exactly what the plan was. It was just sort of to to to kick the hornet's nest. And get discussions going. That's ultimately where I come down with this. I mean, you know, I was addressing it more in the terms like this was serious policy, probably be handled differently, which is what leads me to believe that it wasn't really serious, that it had there was an ulterior motive.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
And I do ultimately agree with your assessment of that.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
um what do you think is going to be the sort of the end result of what you're seeing in syria i mean let's let's stick there for just the moment yeah syria i have a lot of and this is where i do fundamentally disagree with the trump administration this was a very bad decision uh akhmed al-shara before he became now look he is a wolf in an italian suit with a nice haircut um
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
This guy is a specially designated global terrorist, at least for the moment. He led Al-Qaeda's branch in Syria, probably still does. Even when he disassociated from the group, he praised Osama bin Laden and al-Zawahiri. He essentially received permission to do what he's done. He's really played the game. This is a guy who reported to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the head of the Islamic State.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
Why would you trust him? Look, I view jihadists like I view pedophiles. They don't change. You know, all of a sudden we go, I'm not a pedophile anymore and I'm not a jihadist anymore. These are core beliefs. It's the core. They are. One of the conditions that the Trump administration wanted the Shara and his people to. adhere to was getting rid of the foreign jihadists.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
And those numerous groups, I've documented them at the World War Journal. One of these groups is the Turkestan Islamic Party, right? This is a terrorist organization. Its leader sits on al-Qaeda Shura. It commands the Turkestan Islamic Party. He's based His name is Abdul Haq Al-Trikistani. He's based in Afghanistan. He issues orders to the fighters that are in Syria.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
He appointed the Syrian leader. And they've been rolled into the military, the new Syrian military under al-Qa'ara. Meanwhile, they participated in the massacre just a couple of months ago in March that targeted the Alawites. I... Why should we trust that? You know, would I trust a pedophile to run a daycare center or an ax murderer to give him the keys to a cutlery shop?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
But somehow I'm going to let a jihadist, I'll trust a jihadist to run a country and direct a military. Maybe I'm old school. Maybe I don't understand global politics. I think this was a massive mistake by the Trump administration. But what would you do differently then? How would you deal with Syria?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
I would not grant them... Look, the Trump administration is lifting sanctions and people will be like, well, give the Syrian people aid and it'll give them... You keep them away from food insecurity and get them a chance for new life. Well, you still have a jihadist regime that has foreign terrorists within its military that serve at the highest level of its command, including its leader. And...
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
Every dime that we, you know, aid, like money is fungible. Every dollar that we provide or allow them to have access to is money that they could pay foreign fighters, that they could pay their military. If the world wants to recognize Syria, let the world recognize Syria. Why do we have to fund it? Why do we have to be part of it?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
If disengagement from the war on terror, for instance, and even this was another criticism by Trump in his first term, the Doha agreement with the Taliban. If you wanted to disengage from Afghanistan, disengage, but you don't have to cut a deal with the Taliban. And we don't have to recognize Ahmed al-Shara as a world leader. It's just an absolute mistake.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
We don't understand the individuals that we're dealing with. I understand this. I don't know what you, what politic, is this real politic? I have no idea, but I do know that I have principles. Part of my principles are not dealing with individuals who are you know, sponsored suicide bombings who were who led al-Qaeda's branch.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
I don't know Yeah, you know, but I just wonder why we have to deal with them. You know, does American taxpayer dollars and do we have to let the Europeans, if they want to sponsor a member of Al-Qaeda or if the Russians do, let them deal with it. What are we going to influence? You know, we're back to, we tend to throw money at problems and ignore the nature of our enemies. Those are true.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
Our biggest problems in there, why we lost the war on terror. I I'm just of the mind that, you know. Nothing we do. Al-Shara will not accede, just like the Taliban and never acceded to one of our demands. He's not going to accede to any of our demands either. He allows foreign terrorists to remain in Syria.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
The easiest thing that he could do, but he can't do it because he relies on them to keep him in power. Why? You know, just two months ago. His people were behind the massacre in Latakia. And he's like, well, we'll hold an investigation. And I mean, is that what it takes to get recognition? Let me put it this another way.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | May 31st, 2025: 50,000 Russian Troops Amass On Ukraine’s Border & No End in Sight for Gaza
If he was a member of the Ku Klux Klan, would the American people and the American government be so willing to accede to his demands, to recognize him? Would he be welcome at the White House? Would he shake the hands of the president?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | November 23rd, 2024: Ukraine’s Deadly Weapons Race & the Mass Deportation Debate
And I also think we don't understand Zelensky and what his motivations are when he says, and I believe it because he's under political pressure domestically from right-wing groups, from the, you know, let's face it, some of these are neo-Nazi organizations that have military formations, formations like Azov. I mean, you know,
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | November 23rd, 2024: Ukraine’s Deadly Weapons Race & the Mass Deportation Debate
Look, you read the New York Times about this from up to up until the Russian invasion reporting about these right wing extremist groups, you know, how their their power within Ukraine, the best. You know, I don't think he's in a position to yield any land to the Russians. And yet the reality is from the Russian side, keep in mind, they have next four oblasts or provinces in Russia.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | November 23rd, 2024: Ukraine’s Deadly Weapons Race & the Mass Deportation Debate
And some of most of them are. occupied by Russia, but not all of the territory by Russian law. Those are that is now Russian territory to the Russians. Again, morally and legally, I don't think the Russians have a leg to stand on. But internally, this is how Putin and his followers remember he has pressure that comes from his right as well.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | November 23rd, 2024: Ukraine’s Deadly Weapons Race & the Mass Deportation Debate
And that's why I think you have this intractable situation where even if you could get Putin and Zelensky or their people into a room, I think their goals, their outcomes for this are so wildly differing that I don't think you really can come to a solution. Zelensky can't afford to cede even just Crimea to the Russians.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | November 23rd, 2024: Ukraine’s Deadly Weapons Race & the Mass Deportation Debate
Because the the right wing groups that have military power, there's actual military brigades. I see it all the time, you know, showing their Nazi symbolisms while training in France. Even these groups have said that they would not accept this outcome and have said that even some of them said they would kill Zelensky. if that outcome came along. So he's handcuffed.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | November 23rd, 2024: Ukraine’s Deadly Weapons Race & the Mass Deportation Debate
You know, the best that he could hope for is to get all of the territory back. And then maybe the thing that he could see would be Ukraine not agreeing to join NATO to be a neutral country.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | November 23rd, 2024: Ukraine’s Deadly Weapons Race & the Mass Deportation Debate
The Russians, given the cost that they've incurred, Mike, in the number of soldiers, and there's wildly differing estimates on that, the military hardware, international pressure, they're going to want something out of this. And I think they're serious about annexing those four provinces and keeping them. And yeah, I just don't see a political outcome.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | November 23rd, 2024: Ukraine’s Deadly Weapons Race & the Mass Deportation Debate
The best outcome to me that's realistic that Zelensky can hope for is some type of ceasefire, a cessation of fighting, of freezing the line of contact as it is today. That's the best they can hope for. If they wait till tomorrow, they're going to lose more ground. If they wait till next week, they're going to lose a little bit more ground.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | November 23rd, 2024: Ukraine’s Deadly Weapons Race & the Mass Deportation Debate
And if they wait till next month, they're going to lose a lot more ground.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | November 23rd, 2024: Ukraine’s Deadly Weapons Race & the Mass Deportation Debate
Yeah, I agree. And, you know, part of the problem with all of this, you know, how did this, the rhetoric start out from the EU countries and from the US? We have to overthrow Putin. We need, Russian needs to be handed a military defeat. You know, again, I think that's harder to the Russians in some cases.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | November 23rd, 2024: Ukraine’s Deadly Weapons Race & the Mass Deportation Debate
But, you know, the irony is if all of those things were true, if Putin had to go, if, you know, the Russians needed to be dealt with defeat, if the Russians are a direct threat to Europe, then why are the European countries and the United States acting like it?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | November 23rd, 2024: Ukraine’s Deadly Weapons Race & the Mass Deportation Debate
instead of sending, you know, warehoused weapons and limited number of weapons systems, as you mentioned, just enough for Ukraine to not lose. Although I'd argue it's just enough for them to not lose quickly. They're losing slowly. Right. You know, where is the uptick in defense spending in manufacturing?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | November 23rd, 2024: Ukraine’s Deadly Weapons Race & the Mass Deportation Debate
We still can't manufacture, I would argue, probably somewhere around a tenth of the artillery shells of what Russia is manufacturing. And this is a war where artillery is the king of battle. It always has been. And it especially has been in this war where we act one way, but. You know, we say one thing, but we act another. And then, you know, the Russians see this and they don't take us seriously.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | November 23rd, 2024: Ukraine’s Deadly Weapons Race & the Mass Deportation Debate
So we have to become realists about how this war is going to end. You know, hopefully the Trump administration is able to do this. I mean, we certainly will see. He said that he'll cut a deal in a day. I think that's Trump hyperbole. It means we'll cut a deal quickly.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | November 23rd, 2024: Ukraine’s Deadly Weapons Race & the Mass Deportation Debate
And, you know, his statements were taken in my estimation. Look, is it wise to prefer a president to say it that way? Sure, we could have that debate. I don't particularly like his style, but I understood where he was coming from. He was arguing for NATO to pick up its share of the load.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | November 23rd, 2024: Ukraine’s Deadly Weapons Race & the Mass Deportation Debate
And he and I'm certain he's watching this Ukraine conflict and sitting there going, I was right and he was right. Again, if this is an existential war, particularly for Europe, Western and Eastern Europe, why aren't they treating it as such? Yeah.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | November 23rd, 2024: Ukraine’s Deadly Weapons Race & the Mass Deportation Debate
I think there might be some type of ceasefire. And I think we might be able to see it by within the first half of the year, the half a year of this term. I think it's just... he's he's you know a incoming president has a lot to do um and the war in ukraine is just going to be one of a multitude of things that are priority for him so there's a lot of legwork to be done to get the staff in place
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | November 23rd, 2024: Ukraine’s Deadly Weapons Race & the Mass Deportation Debate
I don't think it's going to be something that the Ukrainians or those with the Ukraine flags in their Twitter handles are going to like. But I do think he may be able to achieve some type of ceasefire of freezing the lines. I think the Russians may accept that.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | November 23rd, 2024: Ukraine’s Deadly Weapons Race & the Mass Deportation Debate
But if that's the case and if that's what the Russians are perceiving, they may accelerate their military operations to gobble up more ground, as much ground as they can in expectation of that ceasefire.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | November 23rd, 2024: Ukraine’s Deadly Weapons Race & the Mass Deportation Debate
Yeah, it's a very concerning situation. Look, I find that the Biden administration... clearing the cranes use of long range strike weapons into Russia in between, you know, as it's going to transfer transition power to a Trump administration that has talked about negotiations to just be. You know, I don't I don't even know how to describe that. vindictive.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | November 23rd, 2024: Ukraine’s Deadly Weapons Race & the Mass Deportation Debate
I don't know what the right word is, Mike, but it's it's unseemly at the least. It seems to be an attempt to sabotage Trump administration policies. If after almost three years of war, the Biden administration wasn't going to prove the the long range strike capacity for U.S. weapons, why would it do so now? And to me, it's only the only reason so is to complicate
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | November 23rd, 2024: Ukraine’s Deadly Weapons Race & the Mass Deportation Debate
Things for an incoming Trump administration.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | November 23rd, 2024: Ukraine’s Deadly Weapons Race & the Mass Deportation Debate
they've pegged both of those decisions to the north korean presence right suddenly that was the game changer from their perspective that's what they're saying so did you is there any credibility in that from your perspective it's an awful excuse the north koreans are providing what 10 000 troops to the combat look i'm no fan of putin or his invasion of of the ukraine it's illegal it's immoral all of those things
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | November 23rd, 2024: Ukraine’s Deadly Weapons Race & the Mass Deportation Debate
But, you know, look, Westerners have volunteered to fight in the ranks of the Ukrainian military. It's that kind of war. I don't understand how Ukraine or how North Koreans in a limited capacity all of a sudden clears the decks for the U.S. to approve long range strike capability for U.S. missiles for something that bothers and.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | November 23rd, 2024: Ukraine’s Deadly Weapons Race & the Mass Deportation Debate
caused the Russian to use an intermediate range ballistic missile that is equipped to use nuclear warheads to fire it on Ukraine. And, you know, this is that the point I was going to make is that we're just seeing an escalation here. And I warned about this from the very the day one of this war. This is an administration that couldn't manage a war with the Taliban.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | November 23rd, 2024: Ukraine’s Deadly Weapons Race & the Mass Deportation Debate
with a third rate militia that we've elevated into a regional power in Central Asia. And we think that it can manage a war with nuclear implications
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | November 23rd, 2024: Ukraine’s Deadly Weapons Race & the Mass Deportation Debate
in uh you know against the nuclear power and that that's very disturbing where is joe biden what is he you know look i i try to leave them i believe i i can answer that question yeah i can answer that question i believe he's still in the amazon uh yeah the last i saw he was walking into the forest all joking aside i mean you know he was shoved aside to run for president because of this
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | November 23rd, 2024: Ukraine’s Deadly Weapons Race & the Mass Deportation Debate
This administration should, you know, tread water in Ukraine and hand over the policy to an incoming Trump administration. You know, two months before leaving office, it's going to risk nuclear escalation. I find this to be both disturbing and irresponsible at the same time.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | November 23rd, 2024: Ukraine’s Deadly Weapons Race & the Mass Deportation Debate
Yeah, I mean, that certainly is possible. I think that the Kursk, the Ukrainian presence in Kursk is... Well, it's just a matter of time before the Ukrainians lose their foothold in Russia. The Russians are determined to take it back. I have a feeling that this isn't one that Putin will negotiate for. I think it's a matter of honor for Putin and for the Russians to retake that territory. So
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | November 23rd, 2024: Ukraine’s Deadly Weapons Race & the Mass Deportation Debate
You know, one of the arguments I'm hearing about for permitting the long range strike capabilities is to force the Russians to the table, right, to get them to negotiate a settlement. But the Ukrainians insist that the only settlement they'll accept is full Russian withdrawal. That's not going to happen. It's not. Absolutely not. And then the argument is, well, Putin's not going to negotiate.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | November 23rd, 2024: Ukraine’s Deadly Weapons Race & the Mass Deportation Debate
He wants to take the whole of Ukraine or split Ukraine or he's not going to. So if you're not going to be able to get Putin to the table, how does launching missiles, which, by the way, may have the opposite effect. of what you think. It may harden Putin and it may harden the Russian people to fight harder to dismantle a Ukrainian government. The fact is, is the Ukrainians are losing.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | November 23rd, 2024: Ukraine’s Deadly Weapons Race & the Mass Deportation Debate
And I don't like this. You know, I keep making these arguments, Mike, because it sounds I'll get accused of being pro Putin for this, but We have to look at the reality on the ground. Ukraine is a country with a quarter population, probably more like a fifth at this point, given all the exodus of people from Ukraine.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | November 23rd, 2024: Ukraine’s Deadly Weapons Race & the Mass Deportation Debate
The fifth of the population of Russia does not have its own industrial capability. Russia is a nuclear armed country. It has a large economy with petroleum and other exports. It has a large manufacturing base. It makes its own weapons. These are all stacked against Russia.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | November 23rd, 2024: Ukraine’s Deadly Weapons Race & the Mass Deportation Debate
against Ukraine, we could provide a limited number of weapons systems, even the long range strike systems that we send to the Ukrainians. There's only so many of them that we can send. So they're going to have limited capacity. This war was always stacked against Ukraine.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | November 23rd, 2024: Ukraine’s Deadly Weapons Race & the Mass Deportation Debate
Ukraine would have been wise to take whatever kind of deal it could and then revamped and rearmed for whatever future conflict may come. Thinking that we're going to drive the Russians to the table by allowing low range strike capabilities for a limited number of missiles and rockets is just it's fantasy to me.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | November 23rd, 2024: Ukraine’s Deadly Weapons Race & the Mass Deportation Debate
Yeah. Like before I address that, I wanted to address what you had mentioned, not understanding Putin. This is a problem we've witnessed in the entire war on terror. We didn't understand the Taliban. We didn't understand al Qaeda. We don't didn't and don't understand Iran and its motivations.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
The Houthis are a militia terrorist organization that's taken control of, I would say, about half of Yemen. It did this in the mid-2010s, about 2015. It's backed by Iran, so it's one of Iran's, what they call the axis of resistance. These are the Shia militias that span the Middle East and Iraq and Syria and Gaza and the West Bank.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
Lebanon, of course, being Hezbollah, being what used to be the premier militia, probably still is. The Houthis have become a very influential militia, particularly since the Israelis responded to Hamas's devastating attack on Israel on October 7th, 2023. One month after the attack, the Houthis said that it would attack Israel, as well as Western and international shipping moving to the
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. So they've been firing missiles and drones and other military hardware that it's accumulated first from taking over the Yemeni government and also being supplied by the Iranians. International shipping, a significant portion, I think it's like 15% of the international shipping leaves through the Red Sea, through the Suez Canal.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
And it's driven on shipping costs, shipping times. And also, they've directly attacked U.S. warships. So the Biden administration delisted the Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization immediately after taking office.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
The Biden administration believed that the designation prevented aid from flowing into Yemen. And so the Trump administration designated his entire organization on its way out the door in January 2021. And the Biden administration came in. It's one of the first things it did was delist the entities, which absolutely made no sense.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
Part of it, I think, was a finger in the eye to the Trump administration as well. It did like that the Trump administration listed them on its way out the door. One of the Trump administration's first things it did when it took office two months ago was, or actually did it last month, was to relist the Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization, as it should have been.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
Its attacks on shipping and its attacks, it's also attacked Israel directly after the Hamas's attack on Israel. It should never have been removed.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
Yeah, they've bounded the status of terrorist organization. It controls the apparatuses of the state. It has a military. Its military has to have over 100,000 fighters. We could call them soldiers in the organization. I much view it like You know, like the Taliban, we don't want to recognize the Taliban as being the government of Afghanistan, but they're the de facto government of Afghanistan.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
It possesses a military hardware. It's running ministries. It's provided limited but services. It's providing the services. It's really the Houthis are a terrorist state, just as the Taliban is a terrorist state.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
That's absolutely correct. And I do believe that that was another reason the Biden administration delisted the Houthis, because of animosity with the Saudis over the Saudis, how it was fighting the Houthis. That was a major mistake by the U.S. It caused serious rifts. And look, I have my issues with the Saudi government.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
But you have few allies in the region, and they were fighting an Iranian client. you know, an Iranian proxy. And that was a fight that we should have been supporting. But the Biden administration, because of the Saudi government's murder of a reporter, the Saudi reporter Khashoggi, there was, you know, that was a big issue for the Democratic Party.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
So over the last week, the US military has launched airstrikes against the Houthis. They're targeting... So the Biden administration did this, but in a limited capacity. It was primarily fighting a defensive war against the Houthis, used up a lot of air defense. But what they were doing was targeting... which you have to target things, military hardware.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
They were targeting missiles on launch pads, weapons storage sites, but it was infrequent and it wasn't done with an intensity that could actually set back the Houthis. They refused to go after military leaders and political leaders of the Houthis. The Trump administration, I'm seeing they're not as concerned with going after the people aspect. And if you wanna go after the Houthis,
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
Look, hardware can be replaced, and the Iranians are very willing to replace that hardware. They've done this over time, and they've been effective at replacing that hardware. But so now the Trump administration does seem to be going after military commanders. I haven't seen indication that they've targeted political leadership at this time. That, to me, will be the determining factor. The U.S.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
military, the U.S. government has to decide that it needs to launch a full-scale campaign against the Houthis in order to get them to stop. And I think these strikes aren't just aimed at the Houthis themselves. The reality is the Houthis haven't launched attacks against U.S. warships for several months.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
But I also think this is a message directly to the Iranians that this administration isn't going to tolerate the actions by their proxies, particularly as egregious as the Houthis have been. And to get to your point about policy between administrations, this is something that really needs to change. If this haphazard lack of...
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
You know, a coherent policy that spans administrations, that's something over the last 20 years that is really, you know, a lack of continuity of foreign policy and how we deal with threats like the Iranians, like the Houthis. It really weakens us. It emboldens the Iranians to get the Houthis. They do this because they perceive us as weak.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
All of Iran's proxies have a degree of autonomy. The Iranians are never going to ask the Houthis to do something that would threaten the Houthis' interests, that would threaten the viability of the Houthis. The same goes with Hezbollah, that goes with Hamas or any of these terrorist organizations, the Iraqi militias, the Syrian militias.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
However, they all share common goals, common interests, a common ideology. So... When the Iranians go to the Houthis and say to them, or the Houthis go to the Iranians and say, we want to hit international shipping, they work that out between them. If the Iranians think that the Houthis' actions are going to prepare the group, they'll try and dial them back.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
There's some reporting out there now that the Iranians are trying to advise the Houthis to dial it back.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
Within that, there is a deniability. The Iranians are insisting they don't tell the Houthis what to do. The Houthis are their own entity. The Iranians will claim that they're not directing their activities. That's, of course, all is a lie. I do believe that there is some truth to that. The Houthis may have overreached here, not because of... Well, only because of change of administrations.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
And this is where the change of administrations works against the Iranians, right? If there was a Biden or a Harris administration and you had continuing policies, I'd be very much willing to bet that these would be resuming strikes. So they do act rationally to ensure their survival.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
Their motto is death to Israel, death to America, long live Islam. I'm paraphrasing it, but that's really it. Yeah. At the end of the day, they want those things, but they need to survive. And this is stunning. If you would ask me about nine months ago, the Iranians and their proxies had all the advantages, but they definitely overreached.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
They didn't calculate that the Israelis were willing to launch strikes deep into Israel, which has really, I think, shocked the Israelis at the... I'm sorry, the Iranians at the Israeli abilities to launch targeted strikes against their... against their infrastructure.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
I believe that they are going to back down. They're not going to admit it, but I don't think we're going to see it continuing attacks against U.S. shipping, particularly if the Trump administration directly targets Houthi leadership. Their leaders, they want to survive. They want to follow through on their death to America and death to Israel pledge.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
But a Trump administration, I've always felt that the Houthis are one of the strengths of the Axis of Resistance, but also one of the weaknesses, too. They're exposed. They don't fully control the state. It's not a very populous country. And they're along the ocean where the U.S. Navy, if properly pointed at military and political leadership, it could seriously arm the Houthis.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
One of the things that the Houthis are weakened, they don't just have external enemies, the US and Israel, as you noted before, they don't control the whole country. You have other entities within Yemen that want to see the downfall of the Houthis. And if they're perceived as weak, their enemies will go at them.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
And then there's also a separatist movement, Southern Yemeni separatist movement as well, that isn't very friendly. It's like Game of Thrones in Yemen. You have all of these actors, and in the case of Yemen, at least one of them we could consider to be someone we could work with, and that is the Trump government that is operating there.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
Libya is an excellent analogy. I mean, sadly, the, you know, the government in Aden isn't strong enough to retake Yemen. So I do believe our objective is not just to degrade the Houthis, but to split that relationship with Iran, if that can be done, or at least get the, try to, you know, if it was me, I would be targeting the Iranian efforts directly.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
to resupply the Houthis as well and weaken that link, weaken their ability to rearm and re-equip to... This isn't the first time, by the way, that the Houthis have attacked international shipping. You go all the way back to 2015, 2018, 19, they were doing this. So this is a terrorist government that has... It isn't just because of Israel.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
It's doing it because of its hatred of the West and to further the Iranian regime's goals. Yeah.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
Really quick on the issue of regime change. I mean, unless you're watching what happened in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan, I do not recommend we try that. It hasn't worked well over the last 20 years. But what we can do is weaken our enemies. And that should be our goal. And with the Iranians, we should be working with... is a legitimate Iranian resistance. We should work with them.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
That would solve issues like Gaza, like Yemen, like Iraq. But as far as Gaza goes, the Israelis are back on the offensive. That ceasefire has appeared to have fallen apart, which everyone expected, or anyone who I know who is... understanding of the situation. For instance, John Shanzer, our executive director at FDD, he told me the day it was signed, I was expressing concern about the ceasefire.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
He said, it's never going to make it to phase two. And it hasn't. Hamas has just been refusal to live up to its commitments to exchange prisoners. See, the Israelis have gone back. They're launching airstrikes against Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad leaders and military targets. They've entered that border that divided Gaza, and they're splitting it back in half again.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
The question is, will the Israelis seek for an ultimate defeat of Hamas or is this a stopgap measure in order to get Hamas back to the negotiating table to get those prisoners? Those prisoners, those hostages being held out by Hamas, the Israelis still don't even know who's dead and who's alive. How you can work, the Israelis, their country is held hostage.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
It's not just hostages, Israeli hostages being held. It's the nation of Israel because it wants those hostages released. So the Israelis are on a tough bind. And if it was me, It's a difficult decision and a tough political decision to make for the Israeli leadership, but the number one goal should be the defeat of Hamas.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
We're a year and a half into this war, the Israelis are, and Hamas is still at a negotiating table. That should just not be happening, but it goes to show the... how resolute a group like Hamas is.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
It would require the reoccupation of Gaza by the Israelis and continuing military operations. It's something the Israelis don't want to do. It's possible, but it's difficult. And that's the real problem with any of these wars. Could we have defeated the Taliban? Yes. But what did we need to do to commit to that with something that we weren't willing to do?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
Wars are ultimately battles of wills at some point. And Hamas has will, the Israelis have will, but do the Israelis have enough will to stay in the hornet's nest of Gaza?
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
Yeah, I think we saw that develop. That's what developed over the summer of last year, right? The Israelis need more than that. Here's the issue, right? And we talked about this before. You could deal with the symptoms of Iran's axis of resistance, but they're not actually getting to the core of the problem. And that's the Iranian government.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
That's the Iranian regime, the Mullah-led regime that seeks the destruction of Israel. And until that's Look, I'm not going to tell you that certainly the Israelis can't do that on their own. I don't advise the US to do it, but I believe there's ways that could be done, or means, paths that could be explored to weaken the Iranian regime further.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
How about crippling their energy production, destroying the Iranian Navy? There are things that the Iranians do not want to look weak at home. That really, that is something that concerns them. And yet there's been very little effort to put that kind of pressure on the Iranians.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
Yeah, the developments in Yemen are interesting. So the Biden administration, as we discussed before, mainly targeted weapons systems things for the Yemeni in order to try to get the Yemenis to stop attacking international shipping. It didn't work. The Trump administration has taken a different tack. It's not only targeting weapons systems. It's going after individuals. And just today, the U.S.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
Central Command, which is directing the strikes, targeted a fuel depot that is being used to provide, you know, that is to basically to fuel the Yemeni military. So this is but also targeting the leadership. I've seen reports Yemeni generals and colonels are starting to be identified as being killed. We didn't see this under the Biden campaign. We are seeing this.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
under the trump campaign whether it'll work battle remains to be seen i think that the you know the houthis are just a small terrorist organization it runs a government it runs a military so it's a terrorist government um And so there's a lot of work to be done, but you have a far better chance to get them to stop attacks on international shipping than you did under the Biden administration.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
If you could call it a strategy of just targeting weapons systems that can be and were being replaced by both the Yemenis who manufacture them and the Iranians who supplied them.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
So I think a downside is, is you could see a Libya or a Syrian situation where you have a fractured Yemeni state, which you really essentially do now. But if the Yemeni government that we support is really very toothless.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
One of my concerns is that Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula can reassert control, as it has done several times in the past, or that you get a situation where Al Qaeda is all of a sudden viewed as moderate, just as it is in Syria, where you have a specially designated global terrorist who leads a foreign terrorist organization who's become president and runs the government.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
So of Syria, that you can have a situation like that. The problem is that I that I see with our foreign policy, and this is not a left or right or Republican or Democrat issue, but it's a Washington issue, is that we're always looking for someone to work with.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
And in places like Yemen and Libya and Syria, there are really very few good actors or the ones that are good tend to be powerless or maintain very little power. So my concern is that this if the We replace the Houthis, or if we depose the Houthis, they could be replaced with another bad actor, and we could be convinced that they're good actors. That's exactly what happened in Syria.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
We exchanged one bad leader, Assad, and replaced them with a terrorist. Is the situation better in Syria today than it was a year ago? I'd argue it's just as bad. It's just a different kind of situation.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
I completely agree. We absolutely should be taking out the Houthis. We should do everything. We just need to be, as you said, be pragmatic. Your case of Afghanistan is perfect. Right. When we the Taliban, we President Trump negotiated the Doha agreement with them that President Biden used to withdraw. And we're talking to the Taliban now.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
We we took off the bounty, the $10 million bounty for Sir Juncker, one of the most horrible terrorists on this planet. He's responsible for the deaths and wounding of thousands of Americans in Afghanistan, tons of thousands of Afghans. He's with ties to Al Qaeda. So We may be good at deposing a regime. We just don't seem to have foresight. And you're absolutely correct.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
We project our values upon people that really are our enemies. The Taliban are our friend. Ahmed al-Shara in Syria and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which he runs. They are not an ally, and yet we're treating them like one. And I hope we don't... you know, have followed similar steps in Yemen as we've done in Libya, right? Another basket case study of our failed follow through policy.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
And I just hope we don't do that again.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
I fall somewhere in the middle of interventionism and isolationism only because we're really bad at interventionalism, right? So... If we're going to intervene, we need to do it wisely. We need to understand our enemy. We need to understand the limitations of our allies and understand who they are as well and what their goals are.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
And we shouldn't get involved like, you know, in retrospect, you know, deposing the Taliban. And then trying to prop up, as you mentioned, promote democracy in Afghanistan. That was a fool's errand. It should have been very clear from the very beginning. We should have had limited goals in Afghanistan. Instead, we had lofty goals. Same thing in Iraq.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
Same thing in Syria, where we take a terrorist organization, the Turkestan People's Workers Party, which is a foreign terrorist organization responsible for killing tens of thousands of Turks and called on the Syrian Democratic Forces. Or I'm sorry, the Syrian Democratic Forces. There's nothing democratic about a Marxist terrorist organization. But again, it's another perfect case of projection.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
We need to be very careful. We can't ignore the world. We get things like 9-11 because we pretend that Afghanistan was fine and that Al-Qaeda wasn't a threat.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
um but you know again we just have to we need better leadership we need better expertise we need to get rid of the people in the state department in the department of defense that have these you know and it's again this isn't a left and a right issue there's a lot of ideological uh blinders on both sides of the aisle again they're project
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
their values and their vision of the world and in the Middle East and Africa and many places in the world, they do not share our values. And we have to be very careful when we decide to You know, when we when we're going to go into democracy and nation building.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
So, again, I don't want to come off as being an isolationist, but, you know, when you get stuck somewhere in the middle there, you know, you have you really have no hope, especially in a place like Washington.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
well the trump administration i think is everyone should uh or should be very clear to everyone at this point really is looking to negotiate across the board in ukraine with russia um negotiate with the iranians negotiate with the syrians negotiate with the taliban idea with the taliban right we just had two american hostages released in exchange for the dropping of bounties
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
So I'm not surprised that President Trump believes that there's a lot of deals to be made out there. One of my concerns is that when you're dealing with the Putins and the Iranians of the world, they're not you're not dealing on a level playing field.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
And I do hope he understands that, that you can't trust the Iranians and you can't trust the Russians when it comes to negotiations with as far as Iran goes. Look, I've always been very skeptical that the Israelis can pull off a strike deal. against Iran's nuclear program without significant U.S. support.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
There's a lot that goes into hitting nuclear program like Iran's that's extensive with bunkers and facilities that are very deep underground, built in the mountains. It's not just fly a plane, drop a bomb and it's destroyed. You got to do Follow on strikes. You have to have search and rescue available. We go down. You got to be able to refuel those planes.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
You got to be able to get the air, get the clear to go over the Saudis and the Jordanian airspace, et cetera, et cetera. It's a very complicated. I don't think this is something the Israelis can do on their own. So if the Trump administration, you know, if they were going to carry it out. They need American support, both political and military support to launch an effective strike.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
And they have to do it effectively. They're really going to get one shot at this.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
So I would say it's loose. The Iranians and its access of resistance, that includes Hezbollah, that includes the Iraqi and Syrian militias, that includes the Houthis, groups like Hamas. The Iranians are never going to ask these groups to do something. A, they don't believe, the Iranians don't believe that these groups can carry out, that includes the Houthis.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
And if there's concern, so it's a back and forth. right the iranians have a good read on the capabilities of these groups what they can and can't get away with but if they're you know so if the the iranians are never going to order the houthis to do something but they can advise them they can encourage them they provide the weapons systems and the advisors so it's that sort of relationship and
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
As far as the Houthis go, this is one of the questions that I have. Are we dealing with a symptom of the disease or are we dealing with the cause? Striking at the Houthis, it's necessary. It's something we have to do. But if you really want the Houthis to stop... You hit the Iranians. You hit them hard. You make the Iranians pay.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
You kill their IRGC operatives that are advisors and building weapons systems within Yemen and other places. And you also show the Iranians that they're weak at home. You pick targets inside of Iran. That's the real weakness of the Iranians is... And that's why they have this access of resistance. They have groups like the Houthis and Hezbollah. Because it's the way of projecting power.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
But it also shows how weak they are. If they're shown to be weak at home, that is something that they can't tolerate. That is something that could really get them to force the Houthis and Hezbollah and Hamas to draw back. That could get the Iranians to order them. That's a situation where the Iranians feel they are truly threatened. These groups would comply with that.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
What do you make of all of that? I don't think the Trump administration is going to get what it wants and what it needs. The problem with our negotiations in the past is it's decoupled Iran's nuclear program with its support for these militias across the Middle East or that access of resistance. That was one of the big problems with the JPCOA.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
And I suspect that it's going to be a big problem with this. And also the Iranians. are going to try and run out the clock. They're going to string the U.S. along. They're going to say and do enough things to keep Trump advisors and particularly the State Department, which loves negotiations for the sake of negotiations. And that doesn't matter who is running the State Department.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
It doesn't matter if it's a Republican or a Democratic administration. The State Department likes to talk for the sake of talking. That's what they're paid to do.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
Yeah. I will say that the Trump administration does need to go through the process of talking to them. Right. I just hope they don't allow themselves. Absolutely. Right. They need to get to know and then do what it needs to do what they need to do. I just hope that they eventually recognize that they're being played.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
Yeah, that's a great question. Honestly, it's all a matter of how President Trump wants to be perceived. Remember, he campaigned on no new wars. Now, striking at the Houthis is not a new war. It was an existing war. The Houthis were attacking U.S. warships, international shipping. So it was a continuation. So what he's doing, we can't proceed. Launching strikes on Iran would be perceived as such.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
Does he want to go down that route? How desperate or how desirous is he of getting a deal to show that he's the dealmaker? Or how willing is he to walk away? You know, President Trump is it's very I find it. He's very uptight. He's the most typical person to read in Washington. You know, if this was the Biden administration, I could easily say a little talk for the sake of talking.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
This will be strung out. President Trump could on a drop of a dime. He could either he could say, I've had enough and it's time for us to deal with this problem meaningfully. Or he could say, well, we're just going to continue negotiations. So, yeah, unfortunately, I wish I had a better answer for you.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
Yeah, absolutely. And look, there's been times in my career where I could give you a definitive answer. When President Biden announced the withdrawal from Afghanistan, I was the guy who created that map that showed the Taliban taking over. I said day one, the Afghan government will be lucky to make it out by the end of the summer. They collapsed on August 15th.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
Some of these are very easy to answer. And some, especially when you're dealing with the best way, a mercurial leader like President Trump, it really depends on his mood and his vision. And again, I just can't get inside his decision-making loop, which is interesting. And by the way, in many ways, his unpredictability A lot of people view that as a negative. I view it as an asset.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
Our enemies and our adversaries have to look at that and say, you know, I'm not really sure about this guy. And we need to really consider whether we want to negotiate in good faith or not, or we want to conduct this type of attack, or we want to do this to raise the ire of President Trump. Yeah.