Anna Helhoski
Appearances
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
How to Get Ready for a Recession and Choose Enough Car Insurance
The timeline for recessions have been anywhere from two months to several years. Now, the recession during the COVID lockdown in spring 2020 only lasted two months, and that was the shortest one on record. Now, the longest recession ever was actually after the Civil War, and it lasted more than five years. Next would be the Great Depression, which lasted from 1929 to 1938.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
How to Get Ready for a Recession and Choose Enough Car Insurance
So since 1948, which we can call the modern era, there have been 12 recessions, and most of those recessions lasted just one year. But there were a few that lasted for two, including the Great Recession, which kicked off in 2007 and ended in 2009. So it's important to remember that economic declines begin before a recession is officially declared.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
How to Get Ready for a Recession and Choose Enough Car Insurance
So things are shaky before it's technically a recession. Now, some recessions are mild and they end quickly. With others, the bounce back takes longer, so the effects can linger even after it's technically over.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
How to Get Ready for a Recession and Choose Enough Car Insurance
Yeah, you're right, Elizabeth. The economy is still generally okay, but there are some recent economic indicators and general mood that has consumers concerned and experts raising red flags. There's just still so much uncertainty. I'll get into those specific signs in a minute, but something telling happened earlier this month that didn't exactly quell fears.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
How to Get Ready for a Recession and Choose Enough Car Insurance
In an interview with Fox News on March 9th, President Trump wouldn't deny the possibility of a recession when he was asked.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
How to Get Ready for a Recession and Choose Enough Car Insurance
What are the economists saying, though? Economists are pretty much aligned. Right now, there's certainly a higher risk of recession than, say, last year, but they're watching and waiting. And on March 10th, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers posted on X that he was projecting close to a 50-50 chance of a recession in 2025.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
How to Get Ready for a Recession and Choose Enough Car Insurance
And the UCLA Anderson forecast put the nation on a recession watch and said that if Trump's promised policies on trade, deportations, and workforce reductions are fully enacted, it could trigger a recession in the next year or two. And also last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that the chance of an upcoming recession had risen, but the probability is still not high.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
How to Get Ready for a Recession and Choose Enough Car Insurance
A few things are happening. Consumer sentiment is down on a month-over-month basis for the first time in nearly two years. And then forecasts of GDP for the first quarter of the year, that's gross domestic product, which represents economic growth, are negative, which would be the first time that GDP declined since the first half of 2022.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
How to Get Ready for a Recession and Choose Enough Car Insurance
Inflation is certainly down from where it was, but prices are still elevated, especially for rent and everyday goods like eggs, which we've talked about before. Now, these are just early signs, but even if the data doesn't fully signal, yes, we are headed toward a downturn, the mood has already shifted that direction. Consumer sentiment has taken a dive since the start of the year.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
How to Get Ready for a Recession and Choose Enough Car Insurance
Surveys that feed the major indexes show that the majority of concern is around price increases due to tariffs, as well as other uncertainty surrounding mass layoffs of federal workers. And Trump's policies are also influencing markets. Earlier this month, stocks sank to the lowest levels of the year, erasing all of the gains the markets had made since Trump's election to office.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
How to Get Ready for a Recession and Choose Enough Car Insurance
But on Monday, when Trump walked back some of his tariff plans, the markets rebounded. So there's a lot of volatility there.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
How to Get Ready for a Recession and Choose Enough Car Insurance
Yeah, that's a good question. So let's start with interest rates. The Federal Reserve often lowers interest rates to stimulate the economy. The federal funds rate impacts interest rates for things like mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards. One thing that we also see affected by rates are treasury bonds.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
How to Get Ready for a Recession and Choose Enough Car Insurance
Now, during a recession, if interest rates drop, bond prices increase while bond yields decrease, which makes bonds less attractive for investors to purchase. As for prices, home prices generally go down during a recession since people aren't making a big purchase like that. But historically speaking, that also doesn't always happen.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
How to Get Ready for a Recession and Choose Enough Car Insurance
And things like food prices are volatile, and there are a lot of factors that influence prices, so it's not clear what would happen during a recession. Is there anything people can do to prepare for a recession, and should they? Like death and taxes, there will always be another recession coming. It's inevitable. What we don't know is when the next one will hit.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
How to Get Ready for a Recession and Choose Enough Car Insurance
So there are some ways to prepare your finances. Our first recommendation is to make a spending plan that reduces your must-haves, which will give you more wiggle room in the future, especially if bad economic times hit. And you need to reduce spending due to something like a job loss.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
How to Get Ready for a Recession and Choose Enough Car Insurance
An emergency fund is also crucial to start building if you haven't already. That could mean finding ways to make extra money, putting away more money from your paycheck by increasing automatic transfers, and see if you can switch to a high-yield savings account. What you're trying to do is have a plan B waiting and ready to go if necessary.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
How to Get Ready for a Recession and Choose Enough Car Insurance
You'll need to be able to meet your monthly expenses plus payoff debt.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
How to Get Ready for a Recession and Choose Enough Car Insurance
You may need to lean on credit more to cover expenses if you don't have savings built up. So it's not a bad idea to set up access to additional credit that you can tap if you need to. Homeowners may be able to set up a home equity line of credit, or if you already have a HELOC, then try to replace it with one that has a higher limit.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
How to Get Ready for a Recession and Choose Enough Car Insurance
Now, when it comes to investing, it's hard to see beyond market drops, but you can think about the long term. Don't look at the value of your portfolio every day. And remember that the market historically has been able to recover. And you should still devote what you can to retirement savings. It never hurts to be prepared. That's right.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
How to Get Ready for a Recession and Choose Enough Car Insurance
Hey, so the short version is no, maybe, and it's not a bad idea.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
How to Get Ready for a Recession and Choose Enough Car Insurance
So we are not in a recession right now. The traditional definition is, quote, a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy lasting more than a few months. In simpler terms, growth stops and the economy begins to shrink.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
How to Get Ready for a Recession and Choose Enough Car Insurance
The National Bureau of Economic Research officially determines and dates recessions, and they look at a range of economic indicators, including economic growth, income, inflation, unemployment, manufacturing, consumer spending, and retail sales.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Egg Prices, Greenwashing, and Smarter Ways to Invest
Glad to be here, although I don't have great news to share. Because if you think eggs are spendy now, just wait. The Department of Agriculture expects prices to increase another 20% in 2025.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Egg Prices, Greenwashing, and Smarter Ways to Invest
Right. Prices aren't just high at the grocery store. Restaurants who buy their eggs at wholesale rates are seeing their costs skyrocket too.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Egg Prices, Greenwashing, and Smarter Ways to Invest
Exactly. And meanwhile, consumers are already seeing more than price increases on the shelves. Grocers like Costco, Trader Joe's, and Kroger are even limiting how many cartons of eggs can be purchased at one time. I have a feeling we'll see other purveyors limiting egg sales. And here in New York City, there is one corner store that's selling Lucy eggs. That is a trio of eggs rather than a dozen.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Egg Prices, Greenwashing, and Smarter Ways to Invest
You're right, bird flu isn't new, and it's impacted egg costs since 2022. The previous high for a dozen eggs was $4.82 in January 2023. Prices have dropped since then, before steadily creeping up over the last year. The big spike was, as you mentioned, quite recent. So what's happening now is bird flu is spreading at some of the worst rates we've seen.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Egg Prices, Greenwashing, and Smarter Ways to Invest
We've lost more hens in the last five months than in all of 2022. It's bad out there. All of this means that there are more chickens being depopulated and fewer eggs coming to market.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Egg Prices, Greenwashing, and Smarter Ways to Invest
Exactly. And bird flu is hitting every single state. Data from the Centers for Disease Control in January showed more than 1,500 outbreaks since January 2022. And more than 162 million birds of all kinds have been affected. That's a lot of birds. So Ana, is it impacting all types of chicken eggs? Yeah, that's a good question.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Egg Prices, Greenwashing, and Smarter Ways to Invest
Without getting too much in the weeds, there are different types of eggs and they're priced differently based on grading, location, and whether or not they're organic. So your conventional white egg comes from caged chickens and those are commodity eggs. When we talk about average egg prices, those are commodity eggs.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Egg Prices, Greenwashing, and Smarter Ways to Invest
The next level up are cage-free eggs. And that doesn't mean chickens are running around outside. They're still inside, but they can stretch their wings and walk around. Then you have free-range eggs, which are laid by hens who are outside and have a bit of a larger space to move. And then pasture-raised eggs are laid by hens who roam even more freely.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Egg Prices, Greenwashing, and Smarter Ways to Invest
Those are likely to be your most expensive eggs.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Egg Prices, Greenwashing, and Smarter Ways to Invest
Yeah, that is happening in some places, and it seems strange, but it actually makes sense. Conventional eggs are factory farmed in massive plants, and that's a far cry from the bucolic hen houses that we'd all like to imagine our eggs coming from. So when a single hen gets sick in one of these plants, it threatens far more chickens than in cage-free or free-range or pasture-range farms.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Egg Prices, Greenwashing, and Smarter Ways to Invest
That's not to say specialty egg-laying chickens are insulated from avian flu. In fact, chickens that produce specialty eggs are actually more susceptible to the disease because they're in direct contact with other birds and potentially outside wildlife. The difference is those farms are much smaller, so fewer birds overall are impacted.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Egg Prices, Greenwashing, and Smarter Ways to Invest
Well, farms are testing chickens regularly. And when H5N1 is found, those chickens are culled or depopulated within 24 hours, which are nicer sounding ways to say selectively killed. I won't go into what that actually entails because this is a family show.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Egg Prices, Greenwashing, and Smarter Ways to Invest
Well, when birds need to be killed due to disease, poultry producers are compensated by the federal government. The USDA says that policy is critical to incentivize farms to report outbreaks and then reduce spreading. The USDA doesn't pay for the birds that die from the flu itself, though, just the hens that are culled.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Egg Prices, Greenwashing, and Smarter Ways to Invest
Yeah, the National Economic Council and the USDA are planning to use, quote, enhanced biosecurity measures and medication, end quote, to control the spread. There's also conditional approval by the USDA for an avian flu vaccine, which is generally backed by the poultry and dairy industry.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Egg Prices, Greenwashing, and Smarter Ways to Invest
So in the midst of shrinking the size of the federal government workforce, the U.S. Department of Agriculture accidentally fired multiple employees who were working on response to the avian flu outbreak. Last week, the USDA said it was able to rehire those workers.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Egg Prices, Greenwashing, and Smarter Ways to Invest
And the mass layoffs at the Food and Drug Administration's Food Division also prompted the food safety chief, Jim Jones, to resign in protest.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Egg Prices, Greenwashing, and Smarter Ways to Invest
So that leads to recalls. And when a recall happens, then you've got bare shelves.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Managing the Job Market and Your Parents’ Finances: Tips for the Sandwich Generation
So something we've talked about frequently is the disconnect between how people feel and what data says, especially when it comes to the economy. Can you give us an overview about how personal experience tends to shape perception about the economy and, in this case, our relationship with work?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Managing the Job Market and Your Parents’ Finances: Tips for the Sandwich Generation
Now, specifically about data, can you give an overview of how the labor market has behaved over the last few years in terms of the data that we've seen?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Managing the Job Market and Your Parents’ Finances: Tips for the Sandwich Generation
Now let's talk about labor sentiment. How optimistic are people about the labor market?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Managing the Job Market and Your Parents’ Finances: Tips for the Sandwich Generation
Got it. So here's a hypothetical scenario. Say a worker loses their job and they haven't been able to come back from that easily, maybe in terms of part-time versus full-time work or their income. It's safe to say that their perception is probably the labor market is bad. So if they hear that unemployment has been stable, that doesn't really mesh with their personal experience. Is that right?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Managing the Job Market and Your Parents’ Finances: Tips for the Sandwich Generation
All right, here's another one. Of these three factors, data, vibes, or personal experiences, what tends to weigh more heavily when it comes to sentiment?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Managing the Job Market and Your Parents’ Finances: Tips for the Sandwich Generation
Fair enough. Let's get to the latest NerdWallet survey conducted by Harris Poll. Now, just to note, it was conducted January 2nd through January 6th. Elizabeth, what do the results say about pay satisfaction?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Managing the Job Market and Your Parents’ Finances: Tips for the Sandwich Generation
Got it. How about job seekers?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Managing the Job Market and Your Parents’ Finances: Tips for the Sandwich Generation
Speaking of job seeking, what do the survey results show about how actively people are looking for work right now?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Managing the Job Market and Your Parents’ Finances: Tips for the Sandwich Generation
Now, I know you and I haven't been on the job hunt in quite some time, but I don't remember it as a particularly enjoyable activity. What are some of the negative experiences that those surveyed talked about?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Managing the Job Market and Your Parents’ Finances: Tips for the Sandwich Generation
Now, you mentioned something about how things have changed. We've seen a huge shift in how technology has played a role in hiring, like automation and artificial intelligence. But how do workers actually feel about those changes?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Managing the Job Market and Your Parents’ Finances: Tips for the Sandwich Generation
All right, are there any other big takeaways from the survey that were notable in terms of people's perceptions about the current labor market?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Managing the Job Market and Your Parents’ Finances: Tips for the Sandwich Generation
Now, last week we had the most recent jobs report come out. I'm hoping you can sum up some of the big takeaways from it. Where are we headed?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Managing the Job Market and Your Parents’ Finances: Tips for the Sandwich Generation
Elizabeth Renter, thanks so much for joining us today.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Managing the Job Market and Your Parents’ Finances: Tips for the Sandwich Generation
Yeah, that's right. And the disconnect continues. So I'm joined by NerdWallet economist, Elizabeth Renter. Welcome back, Elizabeth.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Marriage and Money Myths — and Why the Economy Feels 'Off'
There has, Sean. And that's why an article that I read last week in Politico grabbed my attention. The author argues that people's negative feelings about the economy were actually spot on. and that the government's stats on unemployment, wages, and growth were wrong.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Marriage and Money Myths — and Why the Economy Feels 'Off'
So for today's episode, I spoke with that very author, Eugene Ludwig, chair of the Ludwig Institute for Shared Economic Prosperity, who also served as the U.S. Comptroller of the Currency during the Clinton administration. Eugene Ludwig, welcome to Smart Money.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Marriage and Money Myths — and Why the Economy Feels 'Off'
In your article for Politico, you say that you're skeptical that the government's measurements of things like unemployment and wage growth are capturing the realities of the economy. So before we get into what your team of researchers found, I'm curious what led you to dig into the divide between what stats show and what the economic, for lack of a better word, vibe seemed to be.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Marriage and Money Myths — and Why the Economy Feels 'Off'
So all that led you to assemble a team of researchers who found that for some 20 years, voter perception was, quote, more reflective of reality than the incumbent statistics. That's quite a statement to make. Can you explain what your team found was accurate and inaccurate in the data?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Marriage and Money Myths — and Why the Economy Feels 'Off'
So you wrote in your piece that, quote, those living in more modest circumstances have endured at least 20 years of setbacks. And the last four years did not turn things around enough for the lower 60 percent of American income earners, end quote.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Marriage and Money Myths — and Why the Economy Feels 'Off'
So if public opinion is a reliable gauge of objective economic conditions and most of the public has suffered 20 years of setbacks, then I was curious why Gallup's economic index was much higher during the first Trump administration than that is after the Great Recession and before the pandemic, than it had been in 2004.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Marriage and Money Myths — and Why the Economy Feels 'Off'
And if we've seen a 20-year period of economic decline, wouldn't we expect economic confidence to have been lower toward the end of that period than it was at the beginning of that period?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Marriage and Money Myths — and Why the Economy Feels 'Off'
So in your article, you make another pretty startling claim. If you adjust the unemployment stats, about one in four are functionally unemployed in the U.S. Can you explain that a bit?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Marriage and Money Myths — and Why the Economy Feels 'Off'
Aren't the measurements that you're talking about something kind of distinct from unemployment? Part-time workers have jobs, and so do full-time workers who earn low salaries.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Marriage and Money Myths — and Why the Economy Feels 'Off'
Now, let's dig in a little bit about part-time work. The number of Americans working part-time because they can't find full-time work is near historic lows, and that's despite the U.S. population being historically high. Census Bureau data allows for respondents to give a reason for their work status, and the majority of those who work part-time do so by choice. That's what they say.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Marriage and Money Myths — and Why the Economy Feels 'Off'
So I'm looking at two recent periods. Federal data measuring involuntary part-time work show that there were more involuntary part-time workers in December 2019 than in November 2024. And yet public approval of the economy was higher in December 2019 than it was in November 2024. So what's the explanation for why voters like the economy in December 2019 versus November 2024?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Marriage and Money Myths — and Why the Economy Feels 'Off'
And about wages, in your article, you say that data shows the median wage is just under $62,000 annually. But then if you include part-time workers and unemployed job seekers, the median wage is about $52,300 annually. So that would mean that the median worker actually earns 16% less than the stats would indicate.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Marriage and Money Myths — and Why the Economy Feels 'Off'
And as you said, the Consumer Price Index, that's the CPI, which tracks all the costs of goods and services in the economy, isn't telling the whole story of inflation. Can you talk a little bit more about that?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Marriage and Money Myths — and Why the Economy Feels 'Off'
So when it comes to perception, is the disconnect between stats and how people feel really more about inflation than anything else rather than the actual stats that the government is putting out there?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Marriage and Money Myths — and Why the Economy Feels 'Off'
Overall, you say something needs to change to give people a more realistic perception of the US economy. What does that change look like to you?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Marriage and Money Myths — and Why the Economy Feels 'Off'
All right, Eugene Ludwig, thank you so much for joining us today.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Marriage and Money Myths — and Why the Economy Feels 'Off'
Thanks, Sean.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
What to do When Groceries Cost More and Retirement Feels Out of Reach
Yeah, Elizabeth, there has been a lot of tit for tat, but these are some of the main points. Some of Trump's promised 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada have gone into effect. And an additional 10% tariff has also been levied on Chinese goods, bringing the total added tariff to 20%. But Trump soon made an exemption, a one-month reprieve to the auto industry from the 25% tariffs on import purchases.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
What to do When Groceries Cost More and Retirement Feels Out of Reach
And then he walked back some of the Canada and Mexico tariffs by making an additional exemption for any imported products that are included in the 2020 free trade deal known as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. And that's estimated to be around 50% of Mexican imports and 38% of Canadian imports. That pause will be in effect until April 2nd.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
What to do When Groceries Cost More and Retirement Feels Out of Reach
Now, yesterday, 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum went into effect, and there are no countries exempt from that. And that prompted the European Union and Canada to respond with countermeasures of their own.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
What to do When Groceries Cost More and Retirement Feels Out of Reach
They're mainly punitive, meaning that Trump is blaming Mexico and Canada for not curbing drug trafficking into the United States. But there's an economic side to it, too. He also claims that tariffs would entice companies to bring more manufacturing back to the U.S.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
What to do When Groceries Cost More and Retirement Feels Out of Reach
Unsurprisingly, it's not good. There have been retaliatory tariffs from Canada as well as China. Mexico is planning retaliatory tariffs but have pushed those back until the pause ends.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
What to do When Groceries Cost More and Retirement Feels Out of Reach
It's unclear exactly what will happen with the existing tariffs, but Trump has threatened additional ones, including unspecified tariffs on foreign cars as well as agricultural products. So basically, we've just entered a trade war, and we know those usually lead to all kinds of economic impacts, but namely higher prices for consumers.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
What to do When Groceries Cost More and Retirement Feels Out of Reach
Today, I'm talking with two NerdWallet personal finance experts on some of the ways shoppers can navigate the uncertainty. Kim Palmer and Amanda Barroso, welcome to Smart Money.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
What to do When Groceries Cost More and Retirement Feels Out of Reach
So, Kim, let's start with some of the categories of goods that are likely to be impacted by the tariffs.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
What to do When Groceries Cost More and Retirement Feels Out of Reach
And are there products that are more vulnerable to price hikes than others?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
What to do When Groceries Cost More and Retirement Feels Out of Reach
So it's not just foreign goods that will cost more, right? Even if it says made in the U.S., it could still get more expensive?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
What to do When Groceries Cost More and Retirement Feels Out of Reach
So I'm curious about this. Is there any point when companies can change their prices? Say you buy a couch online that's going to ship from China. Hypothetically, if a new tariff was imposed, could a company change its price after you already bought it to accommodate for that new tariff?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
What to do When Groceries Cost More and Retirement Feels Out of Reach
All right. So now the big question, what can consumers do?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
What to do When Groceries Cost More and Retirement Feels Out of Reach
Yeah, that doesn't seem like a great strategy. Thanks, Kim. Let's turn over to you, Amanda. Now, Kim mentioned that groceries are likely to get more expensive. Can you talk a little bit about what people can do specifically when it comes to managing grocery price increases?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
What to do When Groceries Cost More and Retirement Feels Out of Reach
What did you find?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
What to do When Groceries Cost More and Retirement Feels Out of Reach
No, that's great advice. I have about four packages of chicken stock currently sitting in my pantry that I absolutely do not need that many. Same here. Kim and Amanda, thanks again for joining us. Thank you. Thanks for having us.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Cross-Country Moving Tips and What a CFPB Shutdown Could Mean for You
Hey, Sean. Hey, Elizabeth.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Cross-Country Moving Tips and What a CFPB Shutdown Could Mean for You
Yeah, that's right. So to recap, the CFPB is an independent government agency and it oversees all aspects of consumer finance. That includes banks, lenders and other financial institutions. And it was created in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis and Great Recession. So in the 13 years since its founding, the Bureau has recouped $19.7 billion for consumers through enforcement actions.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Cross-Country Moving Tips and What a CFPB Shutdown Could Mean for You
And as a result of the CFPB's enforcement work, some 205 million consumers have been eligible to receive relief. So the CFPB has been good for consumers overall, which is what has made recent actions so confounding.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Cross-Country Moving Tips and What a CFPB Shutdown Could Mean for You
Last week, Russell Vogt was confirmed to lead the Office of Management and Budget and and was named acting director of the CFPB. Shortly after that, the so-called Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, gained access to CFPB headquarters and its computer systems. Later that day, Elon Musk, the billionaire that's leading Doge, posted on his social platform X, quote, CFPB RIP.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Cross-Country Moving Tips and What a CFPB Shutdown Could Mean for You
Since then, Musk has also reportedly deleted the CFPB's X page and the CFPB's website's homepage reads 404, page not found.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Cross-Country Moving Tips and What a CFPB Shutdown Could Mean for You
Chuck, thank you for joining us on Smart Money.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Cross-Country Moving Tips and What a CFPB Shutdown Could Mean for You
So to start off, I'm hoping that you can tell us some of the big accomplishments of the CFPB since its inception.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Cross-Country Moving Tips and What a CFPB Shutdown Could Mean for You
It seems pretty clear that the CFPB is objectively helpful for consumers. So what are the criticisms of the CFPB from this administration?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Cross-Country Moving Tips and What a CFPB Shutdown Could Mean for You
During the Biden administration, the CFPB had issued some really huge reforms and made some wins that were related to junk fees, overdraft fees, medical debt on credit reports, privacy protection, payday lending, and buy now pay later.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Cross-Country Moving Tips and What a CFPB Shutdown Could Mean for You
What I'm wondering is where recent actions by the Trump administration leave those new rules, especially those that haven't gone into effect yet, like the medical debt on credit reports.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Cross-Country Moving Tips and What a CFPB Shutdown Could Mean for You
And one thing that you mentioned were all of those lawsuits that the CFPB has brought on behalf of consumers. About a month ago, it filed a suit against Capital One that alleged that it misled customers about savings accounts rates, for example. What happens to those lawsuits?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Cross-Country Moving Tips and What a CFPB Shutdown Could Mean for You
Right, and there are a lot of current orders to pay fines. Would those still be enforced?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Cross-Country Moving Tips and What a CFPB Shutdown Could Mean for You
So without the CFPB being there, let's say, to oversee large financial institutions, where does that leave consumers? We didn't have a CFPB before 2011. What are some of the risks of not having a government watchdog?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Cross-Country Moving Tips and What a CFPB Shutdown Could Mean for You
Yeah. One of the primary roles of the CFPB has been receiving and assessing complaints from consumers. 6.8 million complaints have been submitted since the CFPB start. So with it on ice, is there anyone to lodge complaints with at this point?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Cross-Country Moving Tips and What a CFPB Shutdown Could Mean for You
Okay.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Cross-Country Moving Tips and What a CFPB Shutdown Could Mean for You
The agency was created by Congress, so I'd assume that it would take an act of Congress to eliminate it entirely. But does it matter at this point if the Trump administration is dismantling it down to bare bones?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Cross-Country Moving Tips and What a CFPB Shutdown Could Mean for You
Chuck Bell, thank you so much for your time today.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Car Prices, Tariffs, and Trade-Offs: What to Know Before You Buy or Move Out
There are a lot of moving pieces, but today let's zero in on one of them. On March 26th, Trump announced that he would add a 25% tariff on finished cars that are imported into the United States. That tariff is now in effect. And an additional 25% tariff will go into effect on auto parts no later than May 3rd.
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Car Prices, Tariffs, and Trade-Offs: What to Know Before You Buy or Move Out
I have some nagging questions about auto tariffs, so I'm hoping Shannon Bradley, an auto writer here at NerdWallet, can answer some of them. Hey, Shannon.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Car Prices, Tariffs, and Trade-Offs: What to Know Before You Buy or Move Out
I'm hoping you can start out by talking about car market prices over the last few years up to now.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Car Prices, Tariffs, and Trade-Offs: What to Know Before You Buy or Move Out
Shannon, what did the auto tariffs specifically include?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Car Prices, Tariffs, and Trade-Offs: What to Know Before You Buy or Move Out
Why is Trump targeting automobiles specifically?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Car Prices, Tariffs, and Trade-Offs: What to Know Before You Buy or Move Out
And what's the response been like from the big three auto manufacturers?
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Car Prices, Tariffs, and Trade-Offs: What to Know Before You Buy or Move Out
Now, almost half of all vehicles sold in the U.S. are imported. The top suppliers of imported cars are, in descending order, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Canada, and Germany. Can you give an example of how a tariff might work on a finished vehicle that's imported from one of these countries?
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Car Prices, Tariffs, and Trade-Offs: What to Know Before You Buy or Move Out
An analysis by S&P Global Mobility projected that 25% tariffs on imported vehicles from Mexico or Canada could increase the average $25,000 price of a car by $6,250. Does that seem accurate from your reporting? Are there any other projections out there?
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Car Prices, Tariffs, and Trade-Offs: What to Know Before You Buy or Move Out
What kind of effects on vehicles can consumers expect, and how quickly are dealerships expected to start increasing prices? As in, how long will it take to work its way through the production chain?
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Car Prices, Tariffs, and Trade-Offs: What to Know Before You Buy or Move Out
What about used cars? Could the tariffs somehow affect those? Are used cars imported from other countries? And will there be more demand for used cars that are already in the U.S. ?
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Car Prices, Tariffs, and Trade-Offs: What to Know Before You Buy or Move Out
Does it also seem likely that there'll be a surge in demand over the next few weeks that could also increase prices?
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Car Prices, Tariffs, and Trade-Offs: What to Know Before You Buy or Move Out
Hey, Sean. Well, frankly, my anxiety is at a 10 right now with the back and forth nature of these tariff proclamations. I can also say as someone closely tracking the tariffs that the information coming out of the White House is changing too quickly to keep up.
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Car Prices, Tariffs, and Trade-Offs: What to Know Before You Buy or Move Out
So there's still uncertainty ahead. Trump has ordered tariffs, then pulled them back time and again. Then again, this one might stick. So the big question is, should people buy a car now?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Car Prices, Tariffs, and Trade-Offs: What to Know Before You Buy or Move Out
Thanks for walking us through that, Shannon.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Car Prices, Tariffs, and Trade-Offs: What to Know Before You Buy or Move Out
It's been chaotic, to say the least, and it's producing a lot of uncertainty for the public, for businesses, the markets and within the government. And just remember, we haven't even begun to see the economic effects settle in.
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How Tariffs Could Impact Your Retirement and What to Know for 2025 Taxes
Hey. So, yeah, I did not look at my retirement account balances either this week.
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How Tariffs Could Impact Your Retirement and What to Know for 2025 Taxes
Agreed. So I'm joined now by our fellow Nerve, Sam Taub, who covers all things investing and has a newsletter dedicated to it as well. Welcome, Sam.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
How Tariffs Could Impact Your Retirement and What to Know for 2025 Taxes
We've been sort of joking about this, but would you agree that now is not the time to go wading into our retirement accounts, trying to figure out whether to make changes while the market is swinging this way and that?
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How Tariffs Could Impact Your Retirement and What to Know for 2025 Taxes
All right, well, let's start with a topic you've addressed in your newsletter, which is private credit and how and whether regular investors should get in on it. So first, what is private credit?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
How Tariffs Could Impact Your Retirement and What to Know for 2025 Taxes
Okay, still with you. And private credit is?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
How Tariffs Could Impact Your Retirement and What to Know for 2025 Taxes
And private credit is growing really fast, right?
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How Tariffs Could Impact Your Retirement and What to Know for 2025 Taxes
And why is that?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
How Tariffs Could Impact Your Retirement and What to Know for 2025 Taxes
So is this what people call shadow banking?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
How Tariffs Could Impact Your Retirement and What to Know for 2025 Taxes
So Sam, what are some ways that retail investors, that is regular people, can get a piece of this action, should they decide that they like some in their portfolios?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
How Tariffs Could Impact Your Retirement and What to Know for 2025 Taxes
What are some pros and cons of getting into the private credit space?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
How Tariffs Could Impact Your Retirement and What to Know for 2025 Taxes
And what about regulation? Is the lack of regulation something to worry about?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
How Tariffs Could Impact Your Retirement and What to Know for 2025 Taxes
So one other question, Sam, what's going on with the markets now that President Trump's 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods have officially begun?
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How Tariffs Could Impact Your Retirement and What to Know for 2025 Taxes
And what about those retaliatory tariffs?
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How Tariffs Could Impact Your Retirement and What to Know for 2025 Taxes
But it seems like these tariffs aren't exactly a surprise. President Trump talked about them a lot on the campaign trail, and he's been pretty clear that he was going to do this since he got back into office. So why is the market just selling off now?
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How Tariffs Could Impact Your Retirement and What to Know for 2025 Taxes
Is there still some possibility that we'll reach a deal and the markets will go back up?
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
How Tariffs Could Impact Your Retirement and What to Know for 2025 Taxes
All right, Sam Taub, thank you so much for your help today.
NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
How Tariffs Could Impact Your Retirement and What to Know for 2025 Taxes
You got it, Sean.
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401(k) vs. Brokerage Account: Which Is Better for Retirement Savings? Plus, the National Debt Explained
The majority of the federal government's earnings are made through tax revenue, and it spends money on programs and services for U.S. citizens. And like most debts, it has to pay the interest, too. As you mentioned, the total national debt right now is $36.2 trillion. But that's the kind of number that is so enormous that it practically loses its meaning. It feels too big to comprehend. Exactly.
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401(k) vs. Brokerage Account: Which Is Better for Retirement Savings? Plus, the National Debt Explained
And when you break down that number by how much money it owes per citizen, it's around $106,000. That's maybe a little bit easier to wrap your head around, but it's not the way that economists prefer to think about the national debt. Instead, they compare the total debt against economic growth, also known as gross domestic product, to find out what the nation's ability to repay our debt is.
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401(k) vs. Brokerage Account: Which Is Better for Retirement Savings? Plus, the National Debt Explained
In other words, our debt-to-GDP ratio. At the end of fiscal year 2024, the U.S. had a debt-to-GDP ratio of 123%, which means the debt we owe is roughly 123% of our annual growth.
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401(k) vs. Brokerage Account: Which Is Better for Retirement Savings? Plus, the National Debt Explained
So the national debt grows when the government spending and interest expenses grow faster than revenue can offset. Increased spending, along with tax cuts, have led to where we are now. Now, going way back in U.S. history, we've often seen national debt spikes during wars, the Revolutionary War, Civil War, World War I, and World War II.
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401(k) vs. Brokerage Account: Which Is Better for Retirement Savings? Plus, the National Debt Explained
In the last couple of decades, the government borrowed a significant amount during the Afghanistan and Iraq wars, as well as the 2008 recession. And the national debt has risen every year over the last 10 years. There are two big reasons why we arrived at that $36.2 trillion amount.
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401(k) vs. Brokerage Account: Which Is Better for Retirement Savings? Plus, the National Debt Explained
During the first Trump administration, we saw broad new tax cuts implemented, which meant that the federal government has been bringing in less tax revenue. And then spending increased significantly during the pandemic. From 2019 to 2021, spending increased 50%.
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401(k) vs. Brokerage Account: Which Is Better for Retirement Savings? Plus, the National Debt Explained
Its creditors own the debt. That includes the American public, foreign governments, other securities holders, and government agencies. The national debt is made up almost entirely of treasury securities. And there are two types. Marketable securities, so assets that can be bought and sold quickly, like bonds, bills, or company shares.
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401(k) vs. Brokerage Account: Which Is Better for Retirement Savings? Plus, the National Debt Explained
And non-marketable securities, financial securities that can't be easily sold, like U.S. savings bonds or shares of a private company. Now, those securities fall into two categories, publicly held debt and intra-governmental debt. And then how do those shake out? Roughly 80% of the national debt is publicly held debt. That's any federal debt held by entities outside the federal government.
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401(k) vs. Brokerage Account: Which Is Better for Retirement Savings? Plus, the National Debt Explained
The remaining 20% is intra-governmental debt, which is money that's essentially passed back and forth by government departments. As of now, the total outstanding national debt breaks down to $7.3 trillion in intergovernmental holdings and $28.9 trillion owned by the public.
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401(k) vs. Brokerage Account: Which Is Better for Retirement Savings? Plus, the National Debt Explained
Sure. So let's first break down publicly held debt. It's essentially money borrowed from outside lenders through financial markets. That includes the Federal Reserve System, mutual funds, state and local governments, depository institutions, pension funds, insurance companies, foreign countries, and other domestic holders.
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401(k) vs. Brokerage Account: Which Is Better for Retirement Savings? Plus, the National Debt Explained
borrow from the most? That'd be Japan at more than $1 trillion, followed by China and the U.K. And some other large debt holders are Luxembourg, the Cayman Islands, Belgium, and Canada. In recent decades, we've come to rely more on foreign lenders than we once did. Now, what about intra-governmental debt? So this isn't a traditional debt in the way a public debt is.
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401(k) vs. Brokerage Account: Which Is Better for Retirement Savings? Plus, the National Debt Explained
It's money that's shuffled around from one department to another in order to fund programs. But that money still needs to be tracked for the sake of accounting. An example of an intra-governmental debt is the largest one, the Social Security Old Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund. And that's one of the funds that the Social Security Administration uses to pay benefit recipients.
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401(k) vs. Brokerage Account: Which Is Better for Retirement Savings? Plus, the National Debt Explained
Earlier this year, the Congressional Budget Office projected that the national debt will increase by $23.9 trillion over the next 10 years. It also forecast that the federal budget deficit in fiscal year 2025 is on pace to grow by $1.9 trillion.
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401(k) vs. Brokerage Account: Which Is Better for Retirement Savings? Plus, the National Debt Explained
It doesn't really pay it off. It just manages the debt. And debt can be offset by revenue, so bringing in tax revenue and issuing treasury securities. If people cash in enough treasury securities that it exceeds the total number sold, that can bring down the debt too. Budget surpluses would also reduce the debt, but the U.S. hasn't had a surplus since the 90s during the Clinton administration.
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401(k) vs. Brokerage Account: Which Is Better for Retirement Savings? Plus, the National Debt Explained
Can you tell me why national debt matters? It matters because it affects the economy at large. It also influences consumer, company, and investor behaviors, and it guides policy decisions. When the national debt is high, individuals and companies may lose confidence in the economy, and that can impact how they invest and spend.
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401(k) vs. Brokerage Account: Which Is Better for Retirement Savings? Plus, the National Debt Explained
Declining confidence could also lead the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates or keep them high, which makes it more difficult for people to borrow. It could ultimately lead to lower economic growth, which, as I explained earlier, will make it even harder to manage the national debt. And if the U.S.
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401(k) vs. Brokerage Account: Which Is Better for Retirement Savings? Plus, the National Debt Explained
doesn't have the revenue it needs to offset more of the debt, then interest on the debt just grows, which could lead the U.S. to borrow more, increase taxes or cut spending on programs that people and businesses rely on. It's basically a negatively reinforcing cycle.
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401(k) vs. Brokerage Account: Which Is Better for Retirement Savings? Plus, the National Debt Explained
They're related, but not the same. Again, the national debt is composed of money that's currently borrowed by the government plus interest on that debt. Meanwhile, the debt ceiling is the total the government can borrow in order to meet its legal obligations. That means funding for things like Social Security, Medicare, military salaries, tax refunds, and interest on the national debt.
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401(k) vs. Brokerage Account: Which Is Better for Retirement Savings? Plus, the National Debt Explained
The debt ceiling, also known as the debt limit, is $36.1 trillion. And we hit that ceiling back in January. But the Treasury is now taking, quote, extraordinary measures to keep legal obligations funded. But we're hurtling toward potential calamity. The U.S. is expected to run out of the money to meet its obligations as soon as late May. Now, if we get to that point, the U.S.
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401(k) vs. Brokerage Account: Which Is Better for Retirement Savings? Plus, the National Debt Explained
could default on its debt. And default would be catastrophic. And if it went on long enough, would plunge the U.S., as well as the rest of the world, into a financial crisis. So Congress needs to act soon to avoid that default. I think we'll likely get deeper into this in a future episode.
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401(k) vs. Brokerage Account: Which Is Better for Retirement Savings? Plus, the National Debt Explained
It's kind of unbelievable, but let's start with what the national debt is, and then I'll explain how we got to where we are now. So the national debt is the sum total of all the money the United States government has borrowed but has not yet repaid. Like you and me, the government earns and spends money. But of course, its earning and spending is pretty different than ours.