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Ann Barry

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Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Okay, since we're in confessional territory, I feel I have a confession.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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It's a safe private space, no one's listening. I have never bought crypto. Okay, for lots of reasons, I'm happy to go into another time, but I've never bought crypto. And I've looked at the adoption and said, okay, it's getting more mainstream, it's getting more mainstream, it's getting more mainstream.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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I do think 2025 is the year when people like me have to get over themselves and say, it's not going anywhere. Figure out how you're going to ride The Wave. The Wave doesn't necessarily need to have the same momentum that we've seen over the last couple of weeks. You're right. I think it feels like there's a sea change.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Gary Gensler, who's the current head of the SEC, has been vehemently anti-crypto. That's going to change probably with Paul Atkins coming into the seat. We've got David Sachs being appointed as the sort of unofficial AI and crypto czar. You've got Elon, don't get me started on meme coins, but he clearly is a very influential, powerful voice in the next administration. He's all for it. So,

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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I'm ready to dig in, guys. This is going to be exciting 2025.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Ich bin jetzt auf der Suche nach legitimen Wegen, um die Infrastruktur dieser Sache umzusetzen. Ich war im Buchlaunch-Party eines Freundes meines Antony Scaramucci, der schon lange ein Bitcoin-Evangelist war, und Michael Saylor war da. Da gab es einen Mic-Drop-Moment, wo er sagte, er hat 25 Millionen Dollar in Bitcoin investiert, oder was auch immer es war.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Und jetzt sind es Billionen von Dollar wert. Also ich denke, wenn man auf Unternehmen wie MicroStrategy schaut, Looking at companies like Coinbase, not investment advice. But I think finding legitimate players around the infrastructure. I think we're going to have to do it. I'm going to have to do it. I don't want to.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Das scheint der Fall zu sein. Ich habe mich zurückgezogen zu meinem Punkt, dass ich das Satoshi-Weitblatt gelesen habe. Das ist es genau. Es ist eine Geschichte von Wert. Es gibt eine finite Anzahl. Manche würden sagen, dass es mehr finit ist in Bezug auf Erfindungsfähigkeit als Gold. Und wenn du etwas so rar und finit hast, dann ist das, wofür sie es benutzen.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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I think we see gentle cuts, but I think we see Jay Powell. I'm a big fan of Jay Powell, by the way. I do think he stuck the landing under really difficult circumstances. I think we see him trying in the next three to six months to very carefully and cautiously feel out what fiscal policy is going to look like. My gut tells

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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und ich könnte falsch sein, ich bin oft falsch, ist, dass wir Interessensrate höher als erwartet sehen werden, für länger als erwartet, für den folgenden Grund. Wenn Trump vorgeht und Corporate Tax Rates drückt, er will eine 15% Blanketrate, das ist eine inflationäre Aktion.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Wenn wir Tarife haben, und es ist nicht so schnell eine Änderung, wie wir denken, ich denke, es wird okay sein, aber wenn es nicht ist, das ist eine inflationäre Politik. Ja, wir werden einen Doge haben, der versucht, Kosten zu steigern, aber wenn wir nicht da sind, haben wir inflationäre Kräfte, die arbeiten. and possibly quite quickly.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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And I think if you're Jay Powell, you've still got to hit that 2% inflation target. That's your job. So I don't see in that scenario how he's able to cut rates as quickly as we thought he might do.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Well, let's talk about mortgages. Let's talk about real estate.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Everyone's been talking about how difficult it is for people to, if they're already a homeowner, if they've already got that privilege, it's been really hard to say, I'm going to sell my home, lose as a result my juicy 30-year mortgage that I locked down four years ago at really attractive interest rates or earlier and try and now get a 6% mortgage, which is just crippling in terms of the math.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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on covering your costs. So if we're stuck with interest rates higher for longer, I think you've got people without the ability to change homes or, you know, for our audience to go buy their first home, right? And to get on the property ladder, which has been this huge source of wealth creation for our parents' generation, our grandparents' generation. So I think that's problem number one.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Problem number two is, I think there's a ton of noise around the real estate of the consumer right now. So on our sister podcast, After Earnings, I spoke to the CEO of Upstart A couple of months ago. Und er sagte, schau, die Daten sind nicht so brillant, wie wir alle denken. Die Gefühle fühlen sich ziemlich gut an, aber die Konsumenten, einige von ihnen, sind wirklich anstrengend.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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I think it goes back to looking at those stocks that are creating quite attractive dividend yields. The attraction of dividend yielding stocks, and I've been a fan of them, and by the way, again, not investment advice, but I've gone into a bunch of ETFs, because you don't have to do the work on every stock and you can get high dividend yielding ones. You've got the upside potential.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Es gibt eine potenzielle Wertschätzung, während man noch Dividenden bekommt. In der Zwischenzeit, wenn du dein Geld in einen Geldmarkt-Account steckst, wirst du nicht die überragende Wertschätzung bekommen, du wirst nur die Koupons klicken und hoffen, dass das gut ist im Vergleich zu allem anderen, was du getan hättest. Ich denke, dass du diese Veränderung weiterhin siehst.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Ich denke auch zurück zu der Gespräche, die wir vorhin hatten. Lass uns wieder über Technologien sprechen und darüber sprechen, was ihre Wertpreise betrifft. Wenn man in die Geschichte zurückgeht, sind die niedrigeren Interestsrate, je mehr Menschen bereit sind, auf spekulativen Technologien und Innovationen zu riskieren.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Und das ist eine der Gründe, warum einige dieser Technologien so gut gearbeitet haben. Denn Menschen sind bereit, zu sagen, dass sie in manchen Fällen nicht Geld kreieren. The opportunity cost of me putting my money into these stocks is relatively low.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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The problem is when you've got rates that are still high, your appetite for risk relative to that isn't as high as it would be, which I think increases the pressure back to what are we going to see in 2025. For these companies promising AI, for promising innovation, for promising margin, for promising cash. Toby, you're going to be sitting there going, all right, show me the money, guys.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Why aren't I having my money in the money market account still?

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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amongst all of those. I think Starbucks got a shot because they hired a really fantastic CEO in the form of the former Chipotle CEO. But you've touched on something, Neil, that you framed it as 2024 was like the year of the CEO change. Can I frame it a little bit differently? I think it was the year that activists... shaped some of the biggest stories in the market.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Starbucks changed, forced by an activist. Nike changed, forced by an activist. Boeing was different. There was a real crisis there.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Right. So you've got these big funds that have pots and pots of money. Folks like Bill Ackman, Nelson Peltz, funds like Elliott Management. And the specific mandate of these funds, Toby, is they look at companies that are in the public domain and they say, okay, What is the management team like? Are they doing their job to find us? Are they finding growth opportunities?

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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I think we've already seen this dark market response, right? Because you remember, originally when he came out, he said, I'm going to slap 60% to 100% tariffs across the board on China. And guess what the market did? Well, we've just been going through all-time high after all-time high after all-time high. So I think people just really...

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Are they finding cost reduction opportunities? They look at the strategies and say, how are these companies doing relative to their competitors? Do they have the right product lines? Are they too diversified? Are they not diversified enough? And what these activists do is they go out, they build positions, they buy the shares of these companies large enough dass sie reale Einfluss haben.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Sie schreiben oft sehr artikulierte, scharfe Wörter. Und oft erreichen sie den Punkt, wo sie sagen, wir werden eine Präsentation rausnehmen und sagen dem Management-Team, hier sind ein paar Dinge, die wir anders machen sollten. Please go do them. And if you don't, we're going to start shaking our sabers, rattling our sabers and shaking up your board.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Southwest Airlines, right, another one we saw this. The CEO survived. I think he's on borrowed time for what it's worth. But the board changed out. So that's what the activists do. Some mixed feelings about them. I've got a very specific view on them.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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So, I'm going to give you a little bit of context for my answer. I've been a CEO of a company. There were 6,000 people. And I've sort of said this over and over again. Execution really is the key to driving performance. There's lots you can't control, right? Brian, he can't control what's going on in China. He can't control what's going on with his competitors.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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He can only control what's right in front of him. And where I salute him is he has spent time going around to different Starbuckses, Is that even the right way to say plural Starbucks? And really paid attention. How long do I have to wait for my coffee? What is the food like? What does the line look like? I don't know if you saw Maxonomics, which did a great video.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Phil Andrews did a great video with timing how quickly coffees come out. That attention to detail. As opposed to just delegating this out is really critical. And getting in the weeds and going around and seeing what's wrong and saying, okay, here are the things we can change. Here's what is in our control. We can get our wait times down. Why aren't we doing it? Food in Starbucks is terrible.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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I've never had it. I rarely do. Why? Why have you rarely had it?

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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So you're saying investors are expecting the tariffs to not materialize? I think they were expecting some tariffs to materialize. I just don't think they expect to see it at the scale that's being thrown out there right now. And actually, I went back, I nerded out on this because I just love to nerd out on this stuff. I went back to see what happened under the last tariff program.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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I get why America runs on Dunkin'. It's my favorite coffee. But to your point, what you've just said, though, that's real. That's real consumer feedback, right? You've just talked about the user experience. It doesn't look good. You're not going to buy it. A good CEO, Toby, in my opinion, can go around, listen to the Niels of the world and say, we're going to change that.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Wait, wait, wait, we're not going to let you go. Yeah, no, let's needle Toby. We're needling Toby. But Under Armour, right, Kevin Plank, CEO, went over to China to go back to China, I think is leaning in there with Steph Curry, right? So is it Nike, the product, or is it Nike because you have this like nostalgic attachment to everything it represented with the NBA and other great, you know?

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Ich weiß nicht, meine Temperatur ist auf. It's a little toasty.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Der CEO von Kalana hat schon darüber geredet, was er in Vorbereitung für einen IPO macht. Es wurde vorgestern spekuliert, dass er auswählen wird, also ist er hinter seinem Zeitpunkt. Aber das war ein interessantes Thema. Kalana hat gesagt, wir haben unsere Software-Anbieter, wie die Verkäuferinnen und Verkäufer, gefeuert. Wir haben alles in der Hand genommen und es ist viel mehr produktiv.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Wir haben unsere Kosten genommen. Das ist für mich eine Vorbereitung für einen IPO-Talk. Das ist wie, dass alle geampft sind und bereit sind, sie rauszuholen.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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No, I don't think so. I think there's going to be a really long and protracted lawsuit. It's going to go on and on. I think if I were Alphabet, I'd be delighted that there's a change in administration coming. And I'd be going back in there. And look, I think Ruth Porat, by the way, brilliant operator, that whole group over at Google and Alphabet, they're going to be arguing. Are you kidding me?

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Have you seen what's going on with ChatGPT for Search? Have you seen what's going on with Perplexity? Have you seen what's going on with Bing? The game's going to change.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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I don't think it will be banned. I do think there's going to be a battle to force ByteDance to sell it to a US owner.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Oh, I'm stumped. I hate being stumped. No, it's fine.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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I'm never stumped. No, I'm going to try. You can have a second. And I'm trying to come up with an answer for you. One that no one ever saw coming. Okay, here's one that I think is not like crazy creative, but I think needs to happen or these companies are going to die. Do you know all of these direct-to-consumer brands that went out in 2020, 2021? They went out, the iPod, right?

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Ich glaube, Rent the Runway, Revolve, Stitch Fix, all of these fashion-type brands need to find a way to get together.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Why is that more stumping than the others? I don't get it. What's my favorite tickers? I like spot for Spotify. I don't know why. Aesthetically, it's like nice looking letters, curvaceous.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Ich weiß nicht, es ist etwas sehr Mad Max und ich bin nicht sicher, ob ich es besser spottere. Es gibt diesen Charakter, ich bin in London in England geboren, ich spottere den Hund, das war ein sehr beliebter Charakter, als ich geboren bin, also ist es eine nostalgische Sache.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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New York hat diese Energie. Ich habe eine wirklich klare These über New York und ich lebe hier schon lange. New York ist ein wirklich schwieriges Ort zu leben. Ich weiß nicht, ob ihr es wisst. Es ist dreckig, es ist verbreitet, es ist klostrophobisch, es ist teuer. Einige Dinge sind wirklich einfach, andere nicht.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Aber jeder will hierher kommen, nicht jeder, viele Leute wollen hierher kommen und viele Leute bleiben. Und ich denke, als Ergebnis, wenn du eine Stadt hast, die wirklich dänisch populiert ist und voll mit Leuten ist, die entschieden haben, hierher zu bleiben und all das verstehen und sie haben es überlebt, sind sie resilient, kreativ, energetische Leute.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Und ich liebe diese Energie und ich denke, du hast das nicht in London oder wo auch immer.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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One book. Can I cheat? I really don't. Cheat away. There's no rules on the show. I'm going to tell you another story. So when I started my career in investing, guess who I wrote to to say you inspired me to go into investing and you equipped me, you taught me to be an investor. Who do you think I was?

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Came to around $200 to $400 impact per US household per year, which is not nothing. That's meaningful. But it wasn't, you know, as catastrophic as people thought. So people are saying we'll be okay.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Beide tolle Antworten. Danke, Neil. Ich habe meinen englischen Literaturlehrer in der Hochschule geschrieben. Und der Grund, warum ich meinen englischen Literaturlehrer geschrieben habe, ist, dass ich gesagt habe, weißt du, was ich in der Hochschule gemacht habe? Wir haben alle das gemacht. Du musst einzelne Teile der Poesie, einzelne Teile des Proses nehmen.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Und du musst eine Meinung herausnehmen. Du musst es unterbrechen. Du musst es analysieren. Und du musst es artikulieren und deine Sicht justifizieren. Okay. Investieren ist das gleiche. Ja, es ist mit Nummern, aber es ist auch mit Entscheidung. Du musst etwas nehmen, was du noch nie gesehen hast. Du musst eine Perspektive finden und es justifizieren.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Wenn du es nicht justifizieren kannst, dann setze nicht dein Geld da. Das ist meine Regel.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Happy New Year, guys. Thanks for having me on. Happy New Year.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Well, when it comes to fruit and dairy and food, I think that's a little bit tougher. I think it's hard to see opportunity there. And I think you just say, okay, we need to see how this shakes out. This could be tough. To go back to the policy thing, that's really interesting, though, that the agricultural community actually supported the tariffs. You remember at the beginning, last go around.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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So, you know, even despite the economic pain, it's unclear what the reaction is going to be. Wenn es um Auto geht, aber auch um Elektronik mehr breit, haben wir diese öffentlichen Firmen-CEOs gesehen, die schon gesagt haben, dass wir zwei Dinge machen. Wir beginnen, unsere Importe von diesen Nationen zu akcelerieren, bevor Trump in die Offiziere kommt.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Und wir schauen auf Nearshoring, aber wir haben es vorher gemacht und wir haben es letzte Zeit gemacht, also sind wir besser vorbereitet. Also glaube ich, wir sind in Ordnung.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Okay, so let's see what Trump said in response. I've got this little print out here because I saw this too. When the BRICS nations came out and said, you know, perhaps we'll start looking at a different anchor currency other than the dollar, which is a sort of derivative effect, Toby, of what you're saying.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Trump basically came out and said, any country that does this should wave goodbye to America. Right. So I think it's pretty clear that even if we do go down the tariff route, I don't think we're going to try and reach a point where we have this very, very weak dollar as a result. And look at who Trump wants to appoint, right, as Treasury Secretary and as Commerce Secretary.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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You know, these are folks, they're Wall Street guys. They don't want to see mass tariffs coming in. They want to see negotiation, I think.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Ich denke, alle haben das schon erlebt. Ich versuche nicht, die Frage zu beurteilen, ob es eine oder andere ist. Sie haben das schon erlebt. Schauen wir mal, was passiert ist. Sie haben das letzte Trump-Administrativ erlebt, die Tarife kamen in. Die Leute haben sich entweder in ihre Suppleichranken eingestellt oder ihre Preise eingestellt. Das ist Nummer eins.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Nummer zwei, es ist nicht so, als ob die Biden-Administration kam und dann all diese Tarife abgab. Erinnerst du dich? Es gab eine tatsächliche Vereinbarung über die Eile. Es gab Krickets. Es gab ein bisschen, weißt du, eine Reaktion, als die Tarife kam. Aber als sie kamen und sie in Effekt waren, gab es Krickets.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Wir wissen, es gab eine tatsächliche Vereinbarung, dass wir ja, wir müssen auf China hart werden. Wir müssen hart werden. Das ist, was wir tun müssen. They weren't reversed, which means we've been living with it. So the question is, what does the incremental amount do?

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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And I just think the incremental amount just means that we just incrementally get more from the places that we moved our supply chains to.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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First of all, how excited are you guys for the watch parties, the NVIDIA earnings watch parties coming out next year?

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Well, we've got to host some. I feel like I see a host party or live streams in our future. So let's talk about what happened with respect to Blackwell and NVIDIA this year. The promise of Blackwell, you just said it, Toby, like unbelievable capacity, the speed of processing and also it's like more energy efficient, which is good news for everybody. And so the promise of it has been out there.

Morning Brew Daily

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And finally 2025 is when it ships, right? The volume comes out, it gets real. So my thinking is the following. NVIDIA has blown past expectations in most of the earnings releases, with the exception of the last one, when it hit expectations. And there was this muted response, which is absurd, right? Because the outlook was fantastic. And they were like punished for just being really good students.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Well, I think what's going to happen in 2025 is... There's going to be this reversion to the sort of forward-looking statements of NVIDIA, because Blackwell actually ships. Don't forget, NVIDIA does not manufacture its chips, right? Which means whatever happens in 2025 is related to two things.

Morning Brew Daily

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One, making sure that their manufacturing partners are getting their stuff out on time and to their clients on time. There have been delays. As long as that happens on time, I think NVIDIA continues to be stable. So what causes NVIDIA to pop? Well, they need another generation of a chip.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Or they need to say, we're going to accelerate our production and this is how we're going to do it because we're going to change our manufacturing. I don't know how they're going to do that, to be perfectly honest. So I don't know that we're going to see the same explosion in NVIDIA, where I do see a concern.

Morning Brew Daily

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And by the way, I don't think they're going to be twice the value of Apple for what it's worth. I do think that we're going to start seeing in 2025 All of this talk about competitive chips, either materializing or not. And if it's not, I think NVIDIA jumps up again, because then it will become clear it's the only game in town for even longer.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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Ja, das ist eine tolle Frage. Lassen wir uns über Utilität sprechen. Es gibt auch Utilitätssektoren. Historisch haben Utilitätssektoren Dividenden erhoben. Wenn man in einem Umfeld ist, in dem man sehr hohe Interessensrate hat, und es ist fast so effektiv, dass man sein Geld in eine hohe Erhöhungskostenkarte nimmt, es in den Banken hält, Ich glaube, dass es sich um ein paar Dinge handelt.

Morning Brew Daily

2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More

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I'm not sure it's going to be broadening out necessarily by sector, but I do think it's going to be broadening out by winners and losers within sectors. For example, all these folks have been talking about investing in AI and the promise that it's going to bring greater productivity. I think everyone in 2025 is going to be like, great, now show us the money. Where is it? Where are the results?

Morning Brew Daily

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And if you don't have them, I think you start to see those share prices start to go down. But if you're actually delivering in the way that Salesforce is to pick a name out of the blue, I think that continues to pop.

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Aber was faszinierend war, ist, dass er es in zwei verschiedene Komponenten zerbrochen hat. Er hat gesagt, wir fangen mit dem privaten Markt an. Und so, wie in Salesforce, und auch in Nvidia, sind diese großen Venture-Capital-Firmen, weil diese großen Kooperationen in Start-ups investieren, wo sie echte Sichtbarkeit haben, wie diese Start-ups funktionieren können.

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Und Mark hat gesagt, look, Salesforce hat gerade in Start-ups ungefähr 5 Billionen Dollar unter Management, und wir sehen eine wirklich tolle Aktivität im AI-Bereich. Die Leute brechen wirklich den Mold, es gibt echte Innovationen. He also called out companies like Inflection and said there was no there there.

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And when there's no there there, the emperor is going to have no clothes and the market is going to start calling it out. So I think he said there has been a bubble in certain applications of an AI. He didn't name names in the public market. He did say that there are some now where the fundamentals are not proving out in the public companies. I happen to agree with him.

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But I don't know that it's until maybe the middle of 2025 when we start really seeing who's been bluffing Not with mal intent, with hope as a strategy. And hope is not a strategy. And I think we start seeing that come to fruition next year.

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Ja, Top 5 Performer in der S&P 500. I'm still not 100% clear on the exact repeatable use of AI. So I'd like to see more evidence, but that's why I got it completely wrong. Like I thought that was hopes of strategy and Alex Cobb, again, if you're listening, come, has proven me sort of wrong. I do think that there are...

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other companies where they've talked vaguely about AI as something that is going to be really important to them, but we haven't yet seen it being adopted at scale. So let's take for example in the manufacturing side.

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I've been this really big believer that whether it's medical devices or it's in farming equipment, we're going to see what's been going on with consumer electronics, where the next generation of electronics Combine Harvesters, the next generation of scanning machines in hospitals are going to have more AI capabilities. I think that's coming. I think it has to come.

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I'm just not sure what the timing is going to be.

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Oh, we need to get you your own ETF.

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Critical taking. We'll keep watching this one.

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I haven't watched it yet. Is that a terrible thing to do?

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There's so much good TV. And I'm completely the target for TV-driven destinations. I watched Shogun. Did you watch Shogun?

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Devour Shogun. I could not book a flight to Japan fast enough after watching Shogun. So look, I get it. I get it. I'm a TV tourist too.

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I mean, if the Four Seasons is listening and they happen to want to do a promotional partnership with Morning Brew, I think Toby and I would be very open to having that conversation.

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I think that's right. And when are they going to fix their food offering? Do you know what I mean? You're not a fan? I'm not a fan. Every time I walk in there, it looks good, it tastes terrible. I think Starbucks, fix your food, and then you're on to your new chapter. Let's go on to our next headline, Toby. Lester Holt, the legendary newscaster and anchor of NBC's Nightly News, is stepping down.

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Holt has been a mainstay for the evening programme since 2015, but announced he plans to step away from the desk this coming summer. NBC executive Janelle Rodriguez called Holt, quote, the beating heart of his news organization, highlighting his steadying voice during the early days of the pandemic in 2020. At the time, the show was averaging 12 million viewers a night.

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Even though broadcast TV audiences have declined in recent years, nightly newscasts can still draw 20 million viewers on a good evening. Toby, look, trust can be the most valuable asset a news program can have. Lester Holt's been a trusted face for NBC for years. Is it going to be hard to replace Holt, or is this just the end of an era now for news?

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Fancy. Was it a real one with all the bells and whistles or this is more of an espresso vibe?

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Hasn't this been happening in sports for years, like tennis with the line calls? Hasn't this been happening in basketball? Why is this new news?

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Okay, Toby, that's actually amateur hour. All the soluble compounds are already extracted, so you're using a waste product at that point.

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I think right there I just got a window into how Toby plays sports. Like right there, like the strategic timeout, the high leverage point in the game. It's important. It's your goal for your tennis. I think everyone, we just figure out how Toby plays mind games in his athletic pursuit.

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Great show today, Toby, and we'll see you all tomorrow.

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Well, once you do figure out your espresso-making game, Toby, maybe there's a LinkedIn ad campaign in your future to promote your product.

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So for our first story, we have got Apple betting big on the future of American innovation as it announced plans to spend $500 billion in the US over the next four years. Included in that investment is also hiring an additional 20,000 people to help bolster its AI projects.

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The tech giant also announced plans to open a 250,000 square foot factory in Houston that they will develop with partners to make servers and power Apple intelligence. The announcement comes as tech companies try to make good with the Trump administration with tariffs from China looming.

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Now, if you remember, the Trump administration did put out there a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods earlier this month. Now, the 20,000 employees that Apple plans to hire in the U.S. will be focused on research, engineering and software and AI development, the company says.

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Meanwhile, in other Apple news, it is set to defend its DEI programs against critical investors during its shareholder meeting amid other major corporations axing its diversity pledges. Toby, there's an awful lot to unpack here, but it looks like CEO Tim Cook is deciding to spend dollars on building infrastructure on American soil to play ball with Uncle Sam. What are you thinking about this one?

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Yeah. So I think I feel like President Trump is definitely taking a victory lap on this one. But there are some parts of the street, Wall Street, Toby, that's asking, is this really a response to that or is just kind of a logical business step? So when we take a huge step back, there's been a huge movement with tech companies to try and, for example, get their chip manufacturing back to the US.

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And Apple, a half a trillion dollar bet, investing big in America.

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We've seen a ton of the big players talk about it. We've seen folks like Microsoft talking about investing more in the US, partly national security concerns, but partly also because, you know, in a world where there's so much uncertainty, it feels as though people want to build in their own backyard. But I don't know. I feel like Apple's all over the headlines at the moment. I was really stunned.

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But to the positive, I was really excited. by part of this announcement is to create an academy in Detroit to train small and medium-sized businesses in implementing AI. And I just thought that to me feels like a really solid investment in Michigan.

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Good morning, everyone, and happy Tuesday. Three men who were accused of stealing a golden throne worth $3.5 million back in 2019. A standing trial in England this week, but it's not your typical golden throne because the throne in this instance refers to a toilet or, in my country's parlance, the loo. The loo.

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You know, I looked at this and I asked myself, well, why is, how did we get here? And I went back, I went down the rabbit hole, Toby, you know, I'm a complete data nerd and I'm also a markets person because Brew Markets is the franchise I look after here. I asked myself why.

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That was a year ago. And since then, the S&P 500, the NASDAQ markets were up over 20% in 2024. So I look at today and say, how is it that spending is so dependent on the wealthy in America? I'm like, because the wealthy just got even wealthier. because they're investing.

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And I think that separation between spending, investing, saving, wealth creation, I mean, the divide is just getting bigger and bigger. Fascinating. Why?

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Yes, six years ago, thieves broke into an English country mansion where Winston Churchill was born and swiped the 215-pound, 18-carat gold conceptual art piece in just under five minutes. At the time, the gold was valued at $3.5 million, but was insured for $6 million. Not your typical splash and grab, Toby.

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Well, I'll get to your question of is this a bad thing. I think we could agree that socially it's not a good thing to have this degree of inequality. So I just want to sort of go on the record and sort of say that. I do think there's risk to having this kind of concentration. And, you know, there are a couple of data points I found really interesting.

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Walmart, did you see that recently, Toby, came out and said, we've got like 87% of folks earning over $100,000 are now shopping at Walmart. And I guess that would be a good thing if it means that you can see lower prices in places like that, which inures to the benefit of lower income folks. But I don't think we're necessarily seeing that because inflation's kept on going up, right?

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And just to build on that with one last thought, like back in, you know, several years ago when I was investing, the conventional wisdom was, to your point, luxury will always do well because the rich will always figure it out. They'll be fine. The other place that people would invest was at places like Dollar General, like the dollar stores.

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And so, you know, two years ago, I went and invested a bunch of money in the dollar stores thinking this bifurcation is going to play out. They've done terribly. To your point, we've seen the bankruptcies, but also Dollar General, folks like that, the share prices have not performed well.

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That old model of the poor are going to, you know, the less wealth you're going to get in certain places just hasn't panned out. It's been that hard for people. So I think really worth keeping an eye on to see how this inequality sort of pans out from an economic perspective. Let's move on. Let's change gears a little bit, Toby. Let's talk about Greenpeace, which is our next story.

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We've got a pivotal trial taking place in North Dakota that could jeopardize the existence of the environmental group Greenpeace USA. There's some real context here which is worth going over. The company behind the controversial Dakota Access Pipeline energy transfer.

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tried to sue Greenpeace in federal courts back in 2017, alleging that the group's protesters who camped near construction sites for months cost the company $300 million. Now, the federal court ended up dismissing the case, but Energy Transfer filed a similar suit in state court, and that's where we are today with the trial.

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The issue underlying all of this sits with a small section of the pipeline that crosses near the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe's reservation, where tribe members argue they were not consulted in the planning process and that the construction poses a pollution risk to sacred sites and to its water supply. Now, it should be noted that energy transfer disputes all of these claims.

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But Toby, this battle's had real messiness around it. Police and protesters have clashed. Protesters say they were pepper sprayed, and police officers say protesters threw rocks at them. The outcome of the trial, which again is focusing on energy transfer, saying all of this cost us in terms of this project,

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could have serious implications, not only on the fossil fuel industry, ensuring what they're capable of doing, but also the environmental industry. I think the punchline here, when I really looked at the So Watered, the story is, if energy transfer wins, Greenpeace could be out of existence.

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That's really interesting. I went back and I grabbed the Pew Research Center. And not only to your point, Toby, does it look like religion's not sort of disappearing in recent years as quickly as people thought. Spirituality doesn't really seem to have gone anywhere. If you take a look at this...

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That percentage for those aged 18 to 24 is 82%. So even if religion has a different importance by different age group, this idea of spirituality seems to be constant throughout.

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Can you imagine it turns into real life, null by name, null by nature? No fun at all. So Toby, I'd like to introduce my very own segment, which is Anne's Analysis, where I take a look at a number and zoom into the story behind it. And so to kick this off, my number is $1 million. And that's the amount a growing number of Argentine soccer players have been signing for. Why is this big?

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Well, a couple of years ago, Argentina would have had at most maybe 10 players making a million dollars or more. Now there are more than two dozen players signing big contracts. So if my math's correct, that's double the amount. Some have pointed at this influx of star players to Argentina's president, Javier Millet.

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Since he started in office 15 months ago, he's been on an all-out push to cut down the government's deficit. He's been on an all-out push to cut down the government's deficit, which has brought some stability to the peso.

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Now, if you recall, prior to his term, Argentina dealt with climbing unemployment, rising poverty, sky-high inflation, and was on the brink of economic disaster in the country for a long time.

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But now its central bank estimates that the peso is the strongest it's been in years, so much so that after factoring in its double-digit inflation rate, it's actually strengthening sharply against the dollar. So with inflation under control, a number of superstar soccer players have been lured home to Argentine clubs.

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And frankly, a dollar there goes a little bit further than a dollar goes in Europe or in the United States, which is other places they could play. So, Toby, are you moving to Argentina to play soccer?

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soccer players, stability of the peso, inflation, and trade deficit. Who knew that that $1 million number could represent so many things?

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Well, this relationship between the ownership of the media outlet and... what it allows that publication to say is an age-old problem. This isn't the first time. It won't be the last, I imagine. It's sort of been around as long as media assets have been privately held. So we'll see. As you said, Toby, a lot of journalists have spoken up against this. There have been some high-profile resignations.

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It's kind of like grocery shopping with a list. Sure, it tells you what to buy, but more importantly, it stops you from wandering into the sweet treat aisle. Just keeps you focused.

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What I'm going to be watching is what happens to the subscriber numbers.

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Next headline, Toby, is Eli Lilly announcing that it will invest $27 billion to build four new U.S. manufacturing sites to meet the demand of its weight loss drugs. The move brings Eli Lilly's total U.S. manufacturing investments to over $50 billion in recent years, making it, quote, one of the largest pharmaceutical expansion investments in U.S. history. That's CEO David Ricks.

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Eli Lilly also released higher doses of its marquee weight loss drug Zepbound at a lower price to reach more patients who are paying with insurance. This announcement comes at a time when companies across all kinds of industries are building goodwill with President Trump, who has emphasised bringing back manufacturing to the US and reducing the reliance on foreign supply chains.

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Toby, so what does this mean for GLP-1 drugs?

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Or in my case, a two pound bag of Kit Kats that just happened to find its way into my shopping cart.

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I remember that story. I can't quite remember, but wasn't the, wasn't it still able to transmit? Do you remember this?

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Great show, Toby. See you all tomorrow.

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LinkedIn ads, great for efficiency, bad for satisfying your sweet tooth. If you're interested in testing out LinkedIn ads, LinkedIn will give you $100 credit on your next campaign. Just go to linkedin.com slash MBD. That's linkedin.com slash MBD. Terms and conditions apply only on LinkedIn ads. Now let's welcome you in with our first story on NVIDIA.

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The AI chip company reported its fourth quarter earnings yesterday where sales grew 78%, bringing NVIDIA's full fiscal year revenue to a whopping $131 billion. It also gave Wall Street a much-needed sigh of relief when it forecasted it'll be able to continue its historic run driven by AI well into 2025. Shares ticked up 2% in after-hours trading.

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Now, while this report may come to some as no surprise, the lead-up to the report had had many on edge who wondered how Nvidia would fare with the sudden emergence of Chinese AI company DeepSeek, that was able to develop AI models apparently at a fraction of the cost of Western counterparts.

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This led investors to question whether as many NVIDIA chips would be needed as previously expected, because at the heart, Toby, of NVIDIA's continued success, it really hinges in large part on Blackwell, which is the company's next generation of AI chips expected to bring in several billion dollars more of revenue, with 2025 being a massive production year.

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So, Toby, seems like at the moment, not so much to worry about at NVIDIA compared to where folks were worried beforehand. But tell me what you thought about this. Demand and production seems alive and well. How did you interpret this?

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And NVIDIA earnings, another bumper report, but will it be enough to keep investors happy?

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And it is all about the future. I remember you and I talked about the watch parties. Last year, whenever NVIDIA delivered amazing results, the share price response still seemed to be just about what the forecast was. It was always forward looking.

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Just in terms of the importance, Toby, of NVIDIA to all investors, just one thing that I saw that this fact really struck me, the NVIDIA share price was up about 170% in 2024. Wow. That gain made up over 20% of the S&P 500's overall return for the year. So the significance of the company is just really striking.

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He's also, just final thought, been popping some seeds for the future as well. There was one little nugget in there, automotive and robotics. Jensen Huang's called it physical AI. Came in at $1.7 billion of revenue for 2024. A little teeny tiny part of the $130 billion overall. But Jensen Huang has been saying, watch this space.

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Good morning. Happy Thursday. Now, a new method for ranking the most dangerous animals in the world just dropped called the Crespo scale. A paper published by author David Crespo ranks animals based on two main factors, population size and mortality rate.

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Wow. Learn the rhythm of your life really struck me as you said that. This is sort of a co-pilot for everyday living. The pricing on this was sort of struck me. The service will be $19.99 a month or free for Amazon Prime members. So that feels sort of compelling in terms of trying to get people to take it up. One thing that Alexa has struggled with in the past, Toby, do you remember all this?

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It's privacy. People not knowing that they really want a device picking up everything it says and in their own home and sort of every room you sort of don't leave it behind. So it has stayed a major issue, this issue of voice data, particularly in an age where things like voice driven deep fakes have caused alarms in the cybersecurity world. So, you know, take up on this is going to be really key.

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It does exclude humans and domesticated animals, ranking instead the other creepy, crawly and tooth-filled terrors on a scale of one to five, where five is considered very high danger. So what are some of the fives on the Crespo scale? Well, depending on where you live, mosquitoes, Russell's vipers, blood flukes and feral dogs. Some of the animals you really got to keep an eye out for.

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So are you going to pay another $20 a month for this?

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Really also a way to try and cover some of the cost of AI development. I mean, not cheap. Back to our conversation on NVIDIA and the chips and the investment that everyone's putting behind it. Moving on to our next story, the mobile app marketing company Applovin has been getting no love.

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Two short sellers released slamming reports, causing company shares to sink down nearly 20%, though it did make up some ground after the report came out, closing the day down just about 12%. Now, prior to these reports, the market was excited about Apploving expanding beyond the mobile gaming advertising, where it's really had its strong history, to e-commerce brands and elsewhere.

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But some were left wondering if maybe the company was being overvalued. The short sellers Fuzzy Panda and Culper Research questioned the credibility of the expansion, saying Apploving has been misrepresenting the benefits of its AI advertising platform and force-feeding app installations onto phones to inflate its revenue numbers.

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Now, in a post on the Fuzzy Panda website, we've got it in front of me, they said Applovin's Axon model was, quote, the nexus of a house of cards built on fraudulent advertising tactics. Applovin CEO Adam Faroge denied those claims, saying, quote, it's disappointing that a few nefarious short sellers are making false and misleading claims aimed at undermining our success.

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Now, if we remember, Applovin stock shot up over 700 percent in 2024, making it one of the year's best performers. But Toby, whenever short sellers go after a company like this, eyebrows do get raised with people asking, is there no smoke without a fire? Do they have a legitimate claim here?

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So Toby, what better way to start your Thursday than to have to think of feral dogs?

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For sure. And when I took a look, I mean, this report's really long. I was holding up this really chunky wadge of paper where I printed out the Fuzzy Panda report. One of the things it talks about is app loving. It suggests it's just waiting to get the ire of Meta. It basically accuses app loving of just reverse engineering Meta's data and saying it's only a matter of time before Meta takes up.

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and tries to protect its valuable data. So, you know, that really, if there's any legs to it, and we don't know, emphasis, we don't know yet, this is just, you know, a report that was out there, then, I mean, talk about waking the sleeping giant.