Andrew Luzum
Appearances
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
Is there a way that we can tell that the OEM is a Wix filter?
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
Yeah, it'd be nice to know if we're telling people to go buy a Wix filter and they're leaving their OEM that the Wix filter to go buy a Wix filter, you know, like it'd be a kind of counterproductive, I guess.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
What about cross-referencing? I know all these companies have different numbers. Do you guys have a good cross-referencing tool or anything like that to get the OEM filter to a Wix filter number?
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
The old pearl snaps?
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
We won't be farming for long. That's what we say.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
He's an attorney with a sense of humor. Yeah. That's hard to find. Kind of like bankers with senses of humor. Not very many of them. But that's all amazing stuff, and we definitely want to talk about that. But we need to lay the foundation for, I mean, how did you get to this point? What were you like growing up? You said you grew up on a hobby farm.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
What got you to this point where you want to do this stuff right now?
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
I like it because I've always questioned. Look, I've gone to my fair share of coffee shop talk, and I enjoy it. It's a social event, right? It's what it is. It's a morning at the bar instead of a night at the bar. You know, as you get older, that's a little easier to do type of thing.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
I was trying to get in the frame because our guest didn't know how to expand the frame.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
But if you take the weather and the markets out of it, you've just ruined all of the coffee shop that typically goes on. I love that because I've never understood how they can go there every morning, and it's never an hour. It's always, I mean, an hour and a half or two or three, and then they're trying to figure out where they're going to lunch. You know, after that. It's three hours. Minimum.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
To me, as a young farmer, I'm 36 years old now, so I don't know if that's young anymore or not, but... I could never understand. I got chores to do. I got this, like I'm trying to hustle. I could never justify that time.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
Because his business can take that gossip and go, oh, I heard this person's thinking about selling ground or wanting to sell this tractor or whatever. And Dave can actually latch on to that. Me as a farmer, you know, maybe... go by the ground? But all the other farmers heard that too, I guess. I don't know.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
I need this show more than people know.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
This peer group is a service that you provide that you started, right?
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
Yes. And don't forget, we need you guys to go on Spotify, Apple, wherever you listen. Leave us a review. Leave us a comment. That's big. That's big for our validity. That helps push our content out there. And we need to get a lot of five stars. So that's a really easy way for you guys to, if you guys enjoy our content, to kind of pay us back.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
Well, an attorney knows what his time is worth more than anybody, so I'm sure it's got to be worth the time, right? Yeah.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
Yeah. That would be Vance Crowe's Peter Thiel paradox then, right?
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
Well, it's going on Twitter.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
Answer. Do it. Do it. Do you have the iPhone jack? I do. Yeah. It's probably like, I've been trying to reach you, but your car's extended. Oh, I didn't get to it fast enough.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
Have you been able to successfully navigate some farms from that mentality to the business mentality? Because it seems like we always talk about it. But man, it's so hard because farming is a great life. And you live there. You take it in every day. I get why it is that attraction.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
It's just tough. I mean, yeah. Have you, have you successfully been able to transition the mindset to that?
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
Well, sorry. Text him and say, hey, we're live right now. Do you want to do a call?
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
Right. I mean, because there's no question that there's a lot of successful farms that are thinking the way of the lifestyle. that have done really well, or maybe mixed some of the business in, because otherwise they wouldn't be where they're at today, right?
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
Right. And the one, well, the one thing about corporate farms, the reason why they're, there are corporate farms, I mean, cause no one likes that mentality is they're, they're doing what you're doing. They're running it like a business, right? They're still family owned. Yeah. So we need to adapt and change our mindset to that.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
Just did a big upgrade of equipment, so we'll see. We actually are running two sets of equipment right now to see if we like it better before the old ex-banker here sends it back if he doesn't like it. That's right. Kept all the receipts. Yeah.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
Yeah, maybe something that gets overlooked quite a bit.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
I think it's a good point, a good topic to bring up because at the end of the day, I mean, your life is worth way more than any farm operation, right? Like if you need to... If the numbers don't work and your farm's going to go down, like, life goes on. There's other things in life to do.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
So just having that peer group, someone to talk to, is bigger than any financial decision or transition or any topic that you're talking about, right?
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
I found myself earlier this week, you mentioned that it was like a light switch. Like, we just went from profitability to not, even though it's just been a slow death all summer long in the markets, which we can't talk about, right? Yep. But just had the realization this week, it's like, you start really looking into... 2025 crop. And you start pricing inputs.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
Is that the headquarters for Wix Filters?
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
We're not even close to breaking even. And I just started feeling pretty down on myself. And I do a lot of other things off the farm to make the farm work. I feel like I'm better insulated than that from other people. But then I got to talking to my dad and brother, and it's like, you know... These downtimes, I think we look at them wrong. Like this is the opportunity, right?
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
Like if we are good managers and make the right decisions in the good times, like everyone can go buy the new tractor and go, you know, maybe take a stab at ground and pay higher cash rent and, you know, try to expand when times are good. But when times are bad, that's when, you know, the cream should rise to the top. I think it's an opportunity.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
And every decision I've made when the times are bad, and I haven't been in farming, I've been farming full time for 12 years. Um, but we've had a couple of down, down times and it seems like always the decisions I've made when times are down have always, it hurt the most then, but it has turned into my best, some of my best decisions that I've made.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
That's a lot of history there.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
And I would say, even if you're not in the position or don't feel like you're in the position, one good decision, like if you could just put all your eggs into one basket, even if you don't have that many eggs, one good decision, if you wait for that right opportunity, could just pay dividends down the road, as long as it's a sound decision.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
If you were a good manager, maybe you could do 10 of those. But if you only could do one... Yeah. Type of deal. It might hurt for a while, but it's time to get her hands dirty and put some work in, I guess.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
along with all along for the ride that's great that's great i think we do need more hobbies as farmers you know we've gotten a lot of people say we just go to the lake all summer you know which is a hobby i guess could be if you do that but like i saw both in my grandpa and probably my dad who's getting ready to step back a little bit their hobby was farming That was their lifestyle.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
And it's a great hobby. But my dad had a lot of hobbies, and I feel like they've gone away. I mean, I remember he used to go to bowling league and golf league. Basketball. Yeah, basketball and go to sports games. And it just seems like it's fallen off, and it's just farming.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
now and I think we need to keep up with those hobbies give us something to do look forward to that's off the farm you know get out of that mindset for when the times are bad like this we need that time to just go unplug and not think about it for a while even if it's an hour a day type of deal I do want to ask, though. Oh, nice catch. People watching on YouTube will see that.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
We found you on Twitter. How long have you been on Twitter, Rex?
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
18 months. That's it? Yeah. He's a baby on Twitter, but he has 12,000 followers. So what is the secret? What have you done that you've found successful to grow those followers and get the engagement that you have?
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
It's been fantastic. I love the scenarios. I think that's some of the stuff that Tanner and I send back and forth. You know, we'll kind of talk amongst ourselves or interact with you because everyone's got a little bit different deal. And then the other one I really like, I've seen you put opportunities up for other farmers that... And, hey, we've got someone that doesn't have a successor here.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
And, like, that's amazing because there's just not enough of that for the young people that want to get involved or maybe don't. You know, their farm is getting swallowed up by a town or doesn't have the opportunity. Like, there's other opportunities out there. We just – no one knows about them.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
Love that. Okay. Well, yeah, definitely. How do people get in touch with you? How do they follow you on X? And what's your website?
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
Share this with some of your friends. I think it's got some very important information. I think we've got a lot more that we can cover in another show going forward. So I'm guessing Clint won't be a ghost of the show. I'm guessing he'll be back. So... Yeah, I say let's have a good harvest, safe harvest. And remember, you're important, so you're much more important than any business operation.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
So let's keep that going and just keep, you know, call your friends. I like it.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
Yeah, we... use a lot of engines. We rely on a lot of engines in agriculture, um, from the, the car or the pickup to get us to the farm or, or haul the trailer to the diesel engines that don't have spark plugs that have a lot of oil that we use. And, uh, My gosh, these engines have gotten so expensive. The oil is so expensive. We're working on razor-thin margins.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
For us to lose an engine or have an issue, even if it's just a little part that goes down, is a big deal. So we need the best thing filtering it, right? And I'm assuming that's why we're talking to you today, Wix Filters.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
Maybe this is your problem, Tanner. That's why you guys always have an engine problem.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
So when I go to my mechanic or my place that I'm purchasing filters and I look at them on the shelf, they all look the same to me besides the brand name. What sets a good filter or a great filter away from maybe a subpar filter?
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
And what's preferred? Is there one preferred over the other or is that per application?
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
I think I found another outlet for corn. We can make cellulose out of corn. And Rachel's listening in, our chief marketing officer, and she would probably cheer us on there.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
How does someone find out that it was actually your fault that it blew up?
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
Well, yeah, it's a worldwide company, I would imagine, right?
Farm4Profit Podcast
Strategic Succession Planning & Profit Growth with Brain Trust Ag
Donald, I want you to talk about, you know, we're in agriculture, right? So we have our John Deere's and our caterpillars, like you said, of the world, and they always want us to use their OEM filter. I'm smart enough to know that they're probably not the ones usually producing that, but... Do you guys do any OEM stuff or is there an advantage to go Wix over OEM?
Farm4Profit Podcast
Make Better Farm Decisions with Predictive Analytics
We went through a warm March. We started to convert nitrogen. And then what happened in April and May? It started raining and it never stopped, right? And so when you look at what we've seen in this last year, we had a lot of falling hydrous trials with NSERV out all over the Corn Belt this last year.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Make Better Farm Decisions with Predictive Analytics
When we compare those trials, where we had NSERV, we were carrying an average of 5% to 11% more nitrogen in the ammonium form than in nitrate form. You may say, why is that important? When nitrogen is not in the ammonium form and it's in the nitrate form, it's a totally susceptible to loss, right? And we know that 70% of our loss happens below ground.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Make Better Farm Decisions with Predictive Analytics
So that's why we want to make sure we're using proven products like insert and instinct.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Make Better Farm Decisions with Predictive Analytics
You know, it's a big conversation always is the fact that we have to remember that our soils are negatively charged. And so when it's in the ammonium form, it's in a positive form. It's reasons why we never talk about ammonium running down our waterways or what we're losing from leachate. It's always in the nitrate form. So corn actually does prefer corn or nitrogen in the ammonium form.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Make Better Farm Decisions with Predictive Analytics
And by doing that, it's going to allow it to have an easier uptake and hopefully more conversion towards yield, test weight, dry down, etc. in the fall. If somebody wants to learn more about nitrogen stabilizers, how best do they do that? Yeah, they should be able to do that through their local retailer to reach out to a local Corteva AgriScience rep.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Make Better Farm Decisions with Predictive Analytics
If they don't have success there, please just go to nitrogenstabilizers.com and you'll be able to see everything we've got going.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Make Better Farm Decisions with Predictive Analytics
I mean, even when we're applying a fall nitrogen stabilizer, the reality is hopefully we're applying nitrogen in the fall when it's below 50 degrees and the soil temps are falling. realistically, we're not using the days of our stabilizer in the fall or hopefully the winter. It's actually we're using those days in spring as soil temps warm up. It's really when we have nitrogen at risk of loss.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Make Better Farm Decisions with Predictive Analytics
And so that's why we want to make sure we're using nitrogen stabilizers both fall and spring. But realistically, you know, you look at this last year, you know, March was actually probably more of our nitrogen loss time period this year. And nobody thinks about that. March was relatively dry for most of the corn belt. And really, you look at what happened this last year.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Overcoming Adversity: Kevan Hueftle "Flea Speaks"
Yeah, I think some other myth that we hear is nitrogen stabilizers tie up our nitrogen or make it not plant available, right? That's not the case at all. By keeping it in the ammonium form, we talked through that a little bit ago, but keeping it in the ammonium form, the plant can still utilize it in the ammonium form. It actually prefers it.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Overcoming Adversity: Kevan Hueftle "Flea Speaks"
So it's not tying up your nitrogen, but it's going to keep it there in the soil profile available when the plant does need it. You know, we really look at corn needs, you know, the majority of their uptake between B6 and tassel. So it's got to be there when the plant needs it. And if it's lost before that, it's just a waste of money.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Overcoming Adversity: Kevan Hueftle "Flea Speaks"
Yeah, we've heard that before too, right? And we actually did a lot of work this last year with Trace Genomics, if you've ever heard of that company. Yeah. But they do a lot of biological testing, right, and tell you overall soil health, bacteria, etc. And we did a lot of this testing between where we have N-Servant Instinct and where we don't have it.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Overcoming Adversity: Kevan Hueftle "Flea Speaks"
And the reality is we're not killing these bacteria. It is an AMO enzyme inhibitor, but we're not actually a bacteria. So we're not killing these bacteria at the rates we're using commercially today.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Overcoming Adversity: Kevan Hueftle "Flea Speaks"
Yeah, they should be able to do that through their local retailer to reach out to a local Corteva AgriScience rep. If they don't have success there, please just go to nitrogenstabilizers.com and you'll be able to see everything we've got going.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Innovative Grain Drying Solutions and Big Equipment Advancements
I mean, I think as we look at around nitrogen being a cost saver, especially in this next year, probably isn't the reality. I think you guys just had Josh Linville on here a couple weeks ago and talked about how nitrogen prices... are staying fairly strong and don't look like they're going to be too bearish here over the next year.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Innovative Grain Drying Solutions and Big Equipment Advancements
You know, so we want to make sure we're starting with a good nitrogen plan. But we talk four hours using the right rates, the right time, right source of product, you know, in the right place. All of those factors come into effect. You know, I still think that fall nitrogen is going to be one of our most efficient or cost effective methods of getting nitrogen out on the acre this fall.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Innovative Grain Drying Solutions and Big Equipment Advancements
But using a good proven stabilizer like NSERV is an insurance policy for an expensive investment, right? I still look at a nitrogen investment on a corn acre this year is probably going to be one of our top two expenses, excluding land costs, right? So we still want to make sure we're doing a really good job around nitrogen management.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Innovative Grain Drying Solutions and Big Equipment Advancements
It's like an insurance policy, right? If we're not stabilizing nitrogen, it's just prone to loss. You know, we know that 70% of our nitrogen loss basically happens below the soil level. And guys say, okay, I can, you know, cheat 20 pounds or I can exclude the nitrogen stabilizer maybe, you know, use an additional 20 pounds of nitrogen. We like to look at it like cows in a pasture, right?
Farm4Profit Podcast
Innovative Grain Drying Solutions and Big Equipment Advancements
Cows are really expensive today as well. But if you've got a hole in the fence in your pasture, do you fix the hole in your fence or do you just buy more cows? Right? The reality is we're going to fix that hole in the fence. We're not going to just keep buying more cows. It's really no different when we're talking about nitrogen stabilization.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Innovative Grain Drying Solutions and Big Equipment Advancements
Yeah, they should be able to do that through their local retailer to reach out to a local Corteva AgriScience rep. If they don't have success there, please just go to nitrogenstabilizers.com and you'll be able to see everything we've got going.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
If wheat rallies, it's usually a pretty good sign for corn to want to rally alongside with it or tag along as they're replaceable across the globe as feed grains.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
Well, at least our branch headquarters, anyway.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
Well, you know, it's Friday. It's post-WASD. We came away without too much craziness. But, yeah, no, it was a fun report today. I think if the biggest takeaway from today is per... Our conversation from a month ago was, you know, are the harvest lows in? And I think you can pretty much say that's the case today with these numbers.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
You know, bean numbers were nicely bullish, at least in the short term here. Corn keeps finding a bottom, interestingly, to no real adjustments in corn exports. And we've seen those screaming higher here over the last few monthly or few weekly reports. So still could be some fireworks in there, certainly. Yeah.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
Yes, yes. I think you had some of this. I mean, if you watch this rally over the last... two to three, I mean, just in this last week, really, I think you were building some of this in already. And I think on a go forward, you know, just tightening up bean carryouts versus this expectation of a half billion bushels, now it's not. Those are all good things.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
And honestly, a slow steady move here rather than a limit higher move is probably better longer term as we look at these markets, you know, going forward over the rest of the winter and early spring months here.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
Yeah, certainly. So, we took national corn yield, dropped that about seven-tenths of a bushel an acre across there. Nothing super drastic there. Cut our carryout slightly because of that. As I mentioned, they didn't do anything with exports. Obviously, if you look at export pace, we're actually well above needed export pace here. So,
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
That could be something to watch in the go forward on the next few months as we, you know, get more, you know, get another month of sales underneath our belt. You know, if we could clip another hundred million extra and take that out of the bottom line, then suddenly, you know, 1A carryout, that's a whole lot different than 2-2-2-3 implied at one point, you know, during the year here. Yeah.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
And, you know, we found a pretty solid demand for a $4, you know, de-scorn future equivalents and, you know, keep selling it. That's the name of the game here. And we've been flashing some unknown sales. Who knows where those go? I think some people, you know, want to think that might be China. I don't know that that's the case today, but any demand is good demand at this point.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
Uh, you know, obviously there's times where if they want to keep their head low, I mean that the thing about those like unknown sales, that could just be an exporter just, uh, selling fob us grain that, you know, could end up going out of another country. So, you know,
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
Obviously, the first thing people think of when they see unknowns, because in 2020, you saw a lot of unknown sales that turned out to all be China. So everybody wants to think that. But regardless, demand is demand. And wherever it's going, that's a good thing.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
It's all data-based. Obviously, they impute data from – so you've got NASS, so like National Ag Statistics Service that would be doing the monthly production reports and yield estimates on domestic crops. The World Ag Board takes those into account. for the U S numbers. And then, you know, they're using ag attache numbers from various countries around the world.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
And then, you know, putting that all into one big matrix and saying, okay, if this guy's crop is this big and this guy's crop is this big and, Statistically speaking, we see this kind of demand change on those numbers. That's where we're going to imply that the demand is X for X, Y, and Z, and this is where these carryout numbers probably should be at.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
Uh, you know, I, you know, unless we're missing like 20, 20 bushel an acre corn crop, but I don't think that's the case. So I, I didn't see that this, this time around now.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
Yeah, I mean, you look at, you know, watch election night, you know, price moves. I mean, you have beans down 17, corn was down. I think, you know, the market, you know, you take the 16 election, you had similar type price action. I think the thing about this time is, like you said. This is a little bit more of a known, not quite the wild card.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
Most of the tariffs that were, you know, on put on during the Trump administration are still in place today or increased during the last Biden administration. And I think the one thing that you can probably take out of, you know, the first Trump administration, too, was, you know, I think they, you know, terrorists were used as a tool to create behaviors from other countries that, you know,
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
we wanted corrected. And I think, you know, there's, there can always be the threat of tariffs doesn't mean that actually happens. So, um, you know, to be determined, but, um, I think it's a tool in the toolbox, obviously, you know, market facilitation payments and 18 and all that fun stuff as it relates to beans.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
Um, you know, we all remember those days and I do think probably the one thing to be said is, um, If it feels like the ag producer is getting left behind or is getting unfairly treated or not getting the value, I'm sure it seems like there's probably going to be some program to help right that in some respect from that perspective.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
That's a traitor. That's a traitor right there.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
Right. We get the WASDE every month. I mean, November, especially depending on harvest timing, is going to be – it's not your final one like the January one, but it's kind of going to be a big snapshot. Yeah. As you roll into the January, December usually is kind of a dud that's just let's repeat the numbers, maybe adjust exports and we'll see in January type of thing.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
But, yeah, so this this report today, I mean, I you know, it gives you a little trend indication of where we think this yield and final yield is going to be now. And and, you know.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
Obviously, like I said, demand piece is going to continue to be adjusted, but, you know, now we've got a pretty good picture of the supply side and, you know, now we're going to start focusing on, you know, do we finish the South American bean crop good? And then is Safrina crop late and, you know, all those things. And then, you know, we start talking about, yeah, new crop economics, uh,
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
you know, for 74, 80 D's corn versus, you know, sub $11 new crop beans. And, you know, for the, like you said, if you didn't raise corn on corn pretty consistently, I mean that, that math looks way better on the corn side of the world today than, than beans do.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
I mean, I think more so in policy than, you know, reports per se. I know there's always the conspiratorial post-WASD, negative WASDs that, you know, USDA is out to get us, you know, comments that you hear occasionally. But suddenly when things are positive, those comments aren't nearly as widespread. So I think that answers itself right there. Yeah.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
Yeah, certainly. I mean, we were talking about this this week. I mean, you watch these carries narrow up versus kind of the lows here in mid-October. You know, you got a dime carry from March to July in the corn board. That doesn't pay your interest costs.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
I mean, you really start to make the case here that, you know, if you can find a decent basis bid on corn here against the March, even if it's not something you want to price, you know, get it rolled to the July, get it delivered now, you know, you can probably take an advance on that.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
If you're pulling it into the right place, take some money out of it and, you know, wait for that spring, summer rally and you're going to end up in a pretty decent spot. You start moving inventory and start turning stuff into cash because you know what those operating lines look like when they're tapped out and you don't want to look at the daily accrued interest number.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
Yeah, certainly. I mean, we've seen, you know, we kind of got over the hump of the worst of harvest basis and now processors and users guys are starting to look at those deferred books and say, man, I need to get some coverage out there. You know, we, we sold actually quite a bit of corn just this last week and,
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
Guys just getting a homemade for where they need to execute on corn and knowing that we're going to have some cash rolling out the, you know, door here, you know, after the first year payments come and do, you know, guys getting a good cash position as they move into the spring timeframe when more, more bills are due and, you know, got some inventory moving.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
I don't think so. I mean, you still have opportunity cost of grain in the bin versus grain in the bank and earning interest. I mean, it's still going to cost you to leave. I mean, At least 3%, you know, depending where you're – and probably higher depending on where you can get your high yield.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
So, yeah, I mean, as long as it's not a tax complication of any sort, you know, certainly there's still value in moving that stuff out of the bin. And I think sometimes guys forget that a little bit.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
No, it will not. And I think where you'll see that, you'll see that in stocks reports. And that's a whole different ballgame. Because if you look in like 19, when we had extremely low test weight corn,
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
it took a whole year to find it, but all of a sudden in late 20, in the last second, third stocks report of that year, you saw that start creeping up because, you know, stocks were lower than expected and it was a function of demand needing to use more corn to accomplish the same thing.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
So it's probably not as big of an impact as, you know, test weight would be because you can, you can push moisture back into corn. You obviously can't make more test weight after the fact.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
Yeah, for sure. Even for the Northern Plains guys that we work with, you know, that are almost always drying corn every year. You know, we were taking corn out of the field at 17, sub 17, which is extremely dry for the Northern Plains guys. And, you know, same deal, 13, 14 moistures guys finished up.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
So, yeah, I think you could see a little of that, but I don't think you're going to see that show up till stocks reports probably at least, mid second or third quarter of the year on that.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
I mean, I think you've already seen a start. I think after today's report, it probably becomes a little more prevalent just because, you know, now you're back to four, four, you know, four 70.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
And, you know, now you're like, well, you know, this, this, this, you know, bean number, although it feels comfortable is, is getting to the point where, you know, we can't just give away every bean acre to corn next year. And, and, um, you know, just, you got to start watching those spreads a little bit and, and,
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
you know, especially, you know, just the corn bean spread and ratios, that'll be pretty telling. But I think the market's still gonna, you know, the thing we got to remember we're back into this six month, we still can't forget about the South American crop.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
Um, you know, that although we dropped us carry out and, you know, world carry out drop commensurately, um, even though we had a slow start in Brazil this year, um, things have nominalized and look pretty good for right now. And, and, you know, this first, first, uh, crop bean crop down there actually is in pretty decent shape today. So man, now they go,
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
Flip off a record or near record crop again, suddenly world stocks are back up and this bean thing just kind of stays ho-hum for a little bit here.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
Yeah, I mean, you know, we had that concern there as we rallied that first time in mid-October, early October, dry kind of a repeat of a year ago. But then, you know, mid-October, they started getting some really plentiful rains and crop has gotten back in in good time. Not that exceptionally late versus normal.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
You know, so obviously, like all growing crops, there's still a weather component to it. But just getting the crop in the ground is the first battle and that battle is basically over with now.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
Yeah, they'll start taking that new crop off late January, early February. So that's the other thing is you kind of start watching this demand piece on the export side. You know, we've been a little behind. You know, we keep getting some, you know, obviously the big China in the room business through the first of the year growing.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
You know, a lot of things as administration changes, you know, what's the rhetoric around that? You know, certainly their preference has been for Brazilian. You know, the Chinese has been for Brazilian beans this last 12 months. And so would expect that to be very similar unless we see some pretty major issues in that crop or delays further.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
I think bean yields down there can be fairly consistent, obviously. And if I'm not incorrect and I've lost track of some of this, I mean, I think Argentina still doesn't allow GMO.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
Yeah, you know, like Jan Wozniak coming up. And I think the other thing too, you know, not to get back onto the political spectrum, but, you know, this whole biofuels, advanced biofuels, renewable diesel, SAF, you know, we've had huge processor growth around that.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
You know, we've been implying a lot of growth in the bean oil and oil seeds balance sheets to feed that need, kind of ethanol 2.0, but on the oil seeds side of the world. And I think we need to keep an eye on, you know, what the rhetoric around 45 Z is coming out, you know, and in January, you know, a lot of that was, you know, done through the inflation reduction act.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
Does, do we continue with that? Is it going to, are those, you know, mandates going to get funded to the full extent?
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
Yeah, IRS has not ruled on anything in the pathway and how they're going to even do it. So now you've got a new administration that takes a little different bend on ethanol, biofuels, carbon scoring and IRS that really hasn't ruled on anything. And I think there's going to be a lot of question marks out there, at least at the end of the year and first part next year.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
Well, I think, you know, just like you talked earlier, everything was dry. Everything came off so fast. We saw the same thing in the northern plains, a crop that would normally take. 30 to 45 days to take off. We had beans and most of the corn crop off in North Dakota in the month of October, which is almost unheard of.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
And same thing up there, just logistics, transportation, nothing could stay caught up just with the massive yields and the amount of grain. Again,
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
you're, you're seeing the, you know, farmer, the strength of the farmer is actually showing again, uh, with, with these big yields slamming the door shut on the bins and, you know, saying, I, I really don't want to participate at, you know, sub four 25 cash corn. And, you know, you've got North central Iowa hog mills paying 40 over today for corn. So, um,
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
it's pretty indicative that, you know, honestly, if the board stagnates and stays here, you probably just keep seeing better basis values. I either, you know, the, you know, comment from earlier of you see some pretty historically strong basis values.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
It's probably not a bad thing to get those locked up, start shipping on it, roll it out to the July and, you know, give yourself till till the spring rally to price it. And yeah,
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
you're probably not going to be sitting in too bad of a spot because the day the border alley is another 50 cents, you know, just like we saw late in this last crop year, you know, basis is just going to fall apart pretty much.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
It's free storage, better than six cents a month.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
I was going to say, are you, you got your truck started there? We'll, uh, we'll, uh, we'll meet up after the combo. So, but yeah, nominally, I think, uh, and especially like this year, as we all well know, Northern Iowa, Northwest Iowa is going to see some pretty, uh,
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
Intense changes with the demand profile up there and some of the relatively poorer crop in the nation relative to expectations with their early flooding and stuff.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
Yeah, I know there's corn shipping out of the Dakotas into various parts of northern Iowa right now to feed that demand.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
I think you're technically like even-ish. But yeah, I think, you know, depending on the timing, obviously, it feels like a net importer a lot of years ago.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
You know, I think just, you know, again, find a trusted source that, you know, has had good recommendations in the past. I think, you know, Find some expectations where you want to have good open orders at. Maybe it's not 450, 470 corn. Maybe it's... temper those expectations a little bit. Tools-wise, I know we've talked earlier, we have our hedge beacon internal product.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
There's some similar type sell signal type products out there for various different groups. And just figure out what it costs you to raise the crop this year and look at it and say, hey, I need this and this. And if that's
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
It's done really well. I mean, we've, you know, every time, you know, we've put these mini rallies on this fall, we've been up, like we rolled into today's report as a near sell signal on corn and beans and feel like we've done, it's done well for what we've been asking of it.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
I think, like I said earlier, you know, look for these good basis opportunities and opportunity to get stuff set, get a home for stuff. Um, maybe if, if, if the end user allows you to get stuff rolled out, you know, roll it out versus a further month at a decent spread and, and, you know, either take your, Take your gain, you know, take your advance on it.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
But, you know, look for these opportunities because what basis is telling us is nobody else is interested in selling corn today at these levels. So you should be. And, you know, wait for that board to come around and take advantage of that higher board when after that grain shipped.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
Uh, not in Nebraska. I know. I mean, it's just emergency temp storage. Um, I don't know if there's different rules. I mean, every grain regulator does things differently.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
Yeah, domestically, winter wheat crop got seeded indecently. There's been some concern about the Russian crop, which obviously is the big dog in the winter wheat world in this day and age. They were extremely dry this fall during seeding. They have picked up some moisture, but that's... Why you've seen, you know, we're back to about where we were 30 days ago in the wheat market.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
But, you know, we're still historically tied overall in the world we carry out. And that's something that, you know, watching in the spring is still not something that, you know, Corey's going to go decide that he wants to go plant spring wheat on his farm this spring in Iowa per se.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
But to the extent that, you know, I think if wheat rallies, it's usually a pretty good sign for corn to want to rally alongside with it or tag along there.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
as they're replaceable across the globe is, you know, feed grains and a tight weed balance sheet, a tightening corn balance sheet, a safrinha crop that isn't in the bin yet, you know, certainly not a recipe for $7 corn right now, but certainly you, you've got the recipe for way better potential for the upside longer term here than, you know, back sub $4 corn anytime soon. Huh.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
I mean, $4.55, right? You did say $4.70. Yeah, $4.70. Yeah, I think that's attainable today.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
Yeah, I mean, even in our client deck, I mean, once we came out of that May rally, we were probably 60% to 70% hedged on what we thought was going to be an APH crop. Obviously, we're a little behind because of better yields. Great, wonderful. I would say this year you are actually even further behind as a national average than the year prior. Yeah.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
That seems to be the problem when you have hangovers from high price years. It's the perpetual, well, I think it's going to go a little higher. Let me wait another 50 cents and then we don't pull the trigger. I don't disagree that there was probably a lot of guys with some pre-contracted grain on, but as a percentage of their total farm handle, you know, Maybe 20% would be my guess just overall.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
I will say the farmer has become more sophisticated marketer in the last five to 10 years to some extent. Kind of has to be with the margin structures we have. But, you know, that's, you know, you look at just our group of guys and generally speaking, nine out of 10 years, those forward sales in the spring of the year, you look back and say, gosh, yeah, that glad we did what we did.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
Why would I? Yeah.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
Yeah.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
All you got to do is show the banker that you got corn sold for 26, and he's got to give you the operating line for that. Yeah, that's how it works.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
Yeah, I, you know, certainly Lighthouse Commodities, you know, we're able to help anybody that, you know, looking for advice on stuff, you know, via our Hedge Beacon product and just generally if somebody wants to give us a ring or look us up online, lighthousecommodities.com. You know, just, you know, we're not in a runaway bullish market here before the end of the year. Yeah.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
you know, reasonable targets on prices, things that are profitable, singles and doubles are going to win the game for the next 12 months. And, um, you know, just as, as much as we all want to be runaway bullish as producers, you know, we're not in that cycle right now of, of, of that.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
And so, you know, you get another 10, 20, 30 cents on this board and you probably want to participate and not be waiting for that magical five because you You know, 489 still pays the bills pretty well even then.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
Yeah. I mean, I haven't really paid much attention. I mean, obviously we're mired in a, well, now we'll be a lame duck, you know, session here until after the first, who knows what the new, you know, group, of senators and representatives are going to do after January.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
And the Ag Committee loses two spots or two spots are going to switch out as well due to... Although I think it was, and I can't remember the representative from Mississippi, I believe it was. If you saw, they'd introduced basically that stop gap. Basically, whatever you planted this year, here's some indemnity payments, not based on ARC PLC, but just on planted acres for 24 that...
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
I guess, quite frankly, look pretty lucrative if you put anything in the ground whatsoever. So, you know, a hundred bucks an acre on corn was projection. I think 80 on beans. That's what I was hearing. Yeah. Yeah.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
That was, yeah, it was, Hey, we couldn't figure it out for the actual farm bill, but here's some money to throw out, throw at you for a little bit to keep everybody happy for another six months, I guess. So.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
That's ultra premium. Only fans.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
A tight wheat balance sheet, a tightening corn balance sheet, a safrinha crop that isn't in the bin yet, certainly not a recipe for $7 corn right now, but certainly you've got the recipe for way better potential for the upside longer term here than back sub $4 corn anytime soon.
Farm4Profit Podcast
Breaking Down the November WASDE Report: Andrew Kaabes - Lighthouse Commodities
It just veered in a direction I'm not sure we wanted it to go.