Unnamed Speaker 12
Appearances
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
All right, everybody, welcome back to the number one podcast in the world. It's episode 185. And you're going to be delighted by today's docket. If you're into politics, we move the taping back a day, gentlemen, because we knew there would be a presidential debate.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
All right, everybody, let's get to the show here. Enough of the craziness. Last night was the first presidential debate, and there's no easy way to put this. It was an unmitigated disaster for the Democrats and President Biden. Gosh, he looked confused. Lots of slips, lots of gaffes. If you are under a rock, living in a cave without Starlink and you missed it, Here's a couple of clips.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Yeah, I think these are all very well said, Frank Freeberg, nicely done. I mean, how is anyone at this point in time surprised? Like, we have been talking about his cognitive ability for...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
couple of years here on this podcast, everybody's been talking about it on Twitter, they've been talking about on social media, everybody's been talking about it at every Christmas, every Thanksgiving for a couple of years right now. And, you know, this long form discussion podcast test is the ultimate test. And I think people need to take that to heart.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
If you look at the long form podcast, as I'm just saying this to toot our own horn here, It could be Joe Rogan. It could be Tim Ferriss. It could be whoever you want, Lex Friedman. When you saw RFK, Vivek, Trump, Chris Christie, Dean Phillips come on this podcast, talk for, in some cases, two plus hours, it was clear they were there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
And this is completely selfish on the part of Biden's family, the people around him, two people. stay in power, and the hot swap's coming. I'm telling you right now, he is not going to be in this race in the next 30 days.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
which is better, better than running somebody who has a 30% chance of winning. And I'm going to take this a step further. This is 25th Amendment territory. This person is not fit to serve as president for the remaining of his term. What we saw last night was incredibly troubling. He was not there. And I've been saying this till I'm blue in the face for months. This is
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
absolutely disgusting that they did this. This is elder abuse. I don't say that as a joke. I say this sincerely. I remember when my dad had to take the keys away from my grandfather, God rest his soul. My grandfather wanted to drive that car, you know, the streets of Brooklyn, his station wagon. My dad at some point said, this guy keeps clipping other people's mirrors. We got to take the car away.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
So you know what my dad did? He went to my grandfather, God rest his soul. And he said, listen, the car was stolen. And I'm sitting there as a seven-year-old next to my dad. And I'm like, the car wasn't stolen. And my dad said, you know what? The car was stolen, Pop. We can't afford a new car. I'll lend you my car once in a while. My dad then sold the car for 800 bucks and got out of there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
That's what we need to do. You got to take the keys away from Biden. He's not fit to finish the rest of his term. Period. Full stop. And I'm glad everybody else now sees what, you know, half of us saw for the last year or two.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Well, I mean, the bias is strong. When you see that clip, I mean, play the clip of Biden post. These guys are so deranged. These lunatics are so deranged. They thought they won last night. Here's a clip of Jill Biden.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Telling Biden he did good.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
You're not running. Joe Biden's not running. You are not running. This is a farce. And now the veil has been lifted.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
To your point, Chamath, compassionate Chamath said it great. Like the guy had a lifetime of service. Let the guy f***. retire, let him spend time with his grandkids, great grandkids, whatever he's blessed with. And let's, let's do the hot swap now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Everybody's talking about this one where Biden lost his train of thought for, I don't know, close to 10 seconds. Play the clip.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
It's a rhetorical question.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Yeah, exactly. You don't want the power. Actually, there's a more sinister reason. And I think, Zach, you're pointing it out there, which is they consider Trump such an existential threat and they want to maintain power that they're willing to do anything to keep power, you know? And, you know, listen, I don't want to get into Trump here, but he's got his own ways to stay in power himself.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
This was an embarrassment for America, this debate. The fact that these are the two candidates is a complete embarrassment.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I wouldn't have a problem with this, Sachs. If it was like Reagan, where they were like, oh, God, he's got 18 months left. We're going to ride this thing out. And yeah, maybe we let him have a quiet thing. But to actually put him up for another four years is the issue here. If they just said, listen, we can 25th Amendment this guy or let him finish the last six months. That's one thing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
But to say we want four more years of this. I mean, how much worse is it going to get?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Hey, what's going to happen right now, I guarantee you is he's out, we're going to have President Kamala, she's going to get her flowers for four months as she gets to be the first female president United States, then she steps out of the way she decides she's not going to run because she's got things to do with her family. And there will be two new people will be moderates.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
And then the real election starts in about 15 days.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
So with me to discuss all things presidential debate and the news finance markets, maybe even a little science from our science boy, David Friberg. Is the Rain Man David Sachs? Yeah. Probably have a tea is frozen or he's staring everybody down. How are you, sir?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Oh, they've already got that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Gosh, that was brutal. And the reaction from CNN, even MSNBC's Joy Reid, as far left as you can go, was... Brutal and candid. And here it is. The knives are out from the Democrats for President Biden.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
It's a very simple mechanism. He's going to, he's going to capitulate and you're going to have Obama. Obama's going to give him a call. I guarantee you Obama's going to talk to him in the next 72 hours. Guarantee the hot swap happens. I'm absolutely willing to make a bet with you right now on it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
The right leverage point is very simple. He's not going to get any more donations. Last night, the Democrats who are donating all said no more money for Joe Biden. So he's going to have no oxygen.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I'll bet you $10,000 right now to whatever charity you want that Biden will not be the nominee.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I'm just offering you a $10,000 bet and I'm not giving you any straight money.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Okay, Freeberg, you've been a little bit silent here. You want to wrap us out so we can get to the next topic? I'll wrap us out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I didn't come on the podcast. I mean, he couldn't. The debate format, to your point, Freeberg, was like the easiest debate format ever. And the greatest thing, I think Dave Port and I pointed this out on Twitter, like Trump's Best strategy was to just let Biden talk, like just get out of the way and let him talk. And there was one moment where he's like, I'm sorry.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I mean, Trump was pretty graceful here, which is a big statement. He like at one point was like, I'm sorry, I don't understand what he just said. Like, I don't know how to respond to something. I don't understand what his point was. Hotswap's coming. And I am an undecided voter. I have a big announcement, Sachs. I have a big announcement about my undecided vote. You want to hear it?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
This is breaking news. I am not voting for Biden. I've eliminated Biden as possible. I was waiting to see what happened last night.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
No, I never was clear about that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I mean, the Weekend at Bernie's joke is real. I mean, it's cruel and it's real. And my Lord, get it together. All right. There's a really interesting... trend going on that I wanted to get everybody's thoughts on AI and corporate efficiency killing tech jobs. Let's pull up this chart. This somebody shared in our group chat from Fred. These are software developer job postings on Indeed.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
From early 2020, that's pre-COVID obviously, to this year. Look at this. The number of job postings for developers has absolutely come crashing down by 80%. This is below pre-COVID numbers. In addition to this, we talked about getting back to work. Penske and Dell saying you have to be back in the office starting this fall four days a week or resignation accepted.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
What are you seeing in your portfolios? Any thoughts on this trend of the major jobs, the high-paying elite jobs, Chamath, maybe going away? This is a trend we haven't seen in our lifetime. So there's always room for elites at elite companies. And now it seems maybe the demand's gone. What's going on here?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Yeah. And just to explain this chart a little bit more in depth, the 100% number back in 2020, then boosts up to two and a half times that amount and then comes back down to 60% of that amount. So it's an index. We don't actually have the raw numbers here of the number of developer jobs open or closed. Sax, your thoughts, what are you seeing in company formation to Chamath's point?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
And overall, what do you think this means for the American elite workforce?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Freeberg, you're, you know, running a company now you're doing hiring qualitatively, what you're seeing in terms of hiring from when you were running production board, you had many companies, people were fighting it out in the peak Zerp era, you know, and giving people incredible, incredible, you know, compensation packets and packages.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
And then you also had like sort of people trying to take talent and maybe talent hoarding was going on. It seems to have dramatically switched. We've been putting job postings out and seeing hundreds of people apply for jobs that we would get dozens previously. What are you seeing? What's the game on the field in terms of hiring?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Yeah. And I think globalization also having a big impact here. I honestly, my theory on this is that because there's not three competing offer sacks from big tech, when you're a startup, you know, trying to land somebody and you're like, we have to beat Uber or Airbnb or Coinbase, you know, like a mid-market company or the Google offer, the Apple offer, the Amazon offer.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Typically, a developer would have those three sets of offers. Here's a startup that's willing to give you 1% of the equity. Here's a mid-market company, an Uber, an Airbnb, a Coinbase, that's offering you $300K. And then here's the incredible $500,000 offer from Amazon or Google. Those offers just aren't there. So then it makes for... The ability for startups to hire great talent.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
This is the best time possible to be a startup. The talent on the field is incredible. OpenAI is considering a for-profit profit conversion, and that means possibly an IPO soon. According to reports, Sam Altman recently discussed this with major shareholders like maybe Microsoft. And it's possible OpenAI will become a for-profit benefit corporation similar to Anthropic or XAI.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
If you don't know what a for-profit benefit corporation is, a benefit corporation or B Corp in the industry means you have a stated mission that the board is responsible for going after, you know, save the whales, provide AI software for all of humanity, whatever it is, in addition to the standard acting in the interest of all shareholders. And so...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
This, of course, means OpenAI, which was valued at $86 billion, could IPO at some point. What are your thoughts on this? We saw the revenue numbers are crushing it. Any thoughts, Chamath, on OpenAI IPOing? Is that a possibility in your mind?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
In other words, you might be opening up, you might be MySpace.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Secure the bag, yes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Sacks on a potential IPO by Sam and the team at OpenAI and the impact that might have on the wider space.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
All right, gentlemen, there is absolutely no way any of us could have predicted this. Oh, wait, Nick, play the clip. Read the room, Democrats. You have put up a candidate that nobody wants. His policies on the border and some other issues are not in sync with the majority of the country.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
We still need more public companies, right? Freiberg, you got a thought here before we go into superintelligence and Ilya's new company?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
The trend line is it's doubling revenue, right? Year over year.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
If you were an employee, Freeberg, and it went out at 120 billion, would you clear your position if you could? Would you sell half your position?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I don't know enough. I'm assuming most of those. Tramath, anybody want to play along here?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I heard 70% of employees at NVIDIA are millionaires now. That's a crazy number. Go ahead, Zach.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
At some point, the Democrats just have to take a deep look in the mirror and say, we fielded a bad candidate who's too old and people don't believe will stand up to scrutiny of, like, say, being on the all-in pod for two hours or in the debates. or with a hostile interviewer, any of those possibilities.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Well, let me ask it that way. You got 90% of your net worth in NVIDIA. I'm sorry, 90% of your net worth. You're a person at OpenEye sitting on $10 million in shares. Do you sell half or what would you do personally, Sax?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
If you were first, if you're like, this is 90% of your net worth, 99% of your net worth.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
And if it was $120 billion valuation with $3 million in revenue, Chamath, and you're trading at 40x or whatever it is times next year's revenue, let's assume they do $5 billion next year, you're still looking at 30x revenue, you would clear.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
What was your take on that, by the way, Jim? That was interesting.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
And so I think if that's the case, we really need to have the Democrats think deeply about maybe fielding a different candidate. I believe that's what's going to happen in the next 30 to 60 days.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Okay, so to summarize, a bit cynical, but you're building an ally base that then makes it harder to investigate the company, criticize the company, or anything like that, right? That's essentially what you're saying.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
What's your take on that, Sax?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Yeah, and the number of CIA, former CIA, former FBI, Justice Department people working at the Googles, Facebooks, Metas, Apples of the world is like a very large number. I have family, as many of you know, in law enforcement and in the deep state, I guess. I should call it sex. And they are constantly asking me about job offers they have from these companies and which one should they go to.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
This is after they've done tours in Afghanistan and, you know, speaking many different foreign languages. And then all of a sudden they secure this incredible, you know, 3X job. salary bump by working in big tech. So there is something to all of this. Ilya announced his new startup. Finally, it's called Safe Super Intelligence Inc, or SSI.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I mean, if you just look at the polls- You really think there's a switcheroo? 100% there'll be a switcheroo. Who's the switcheroo? I have no idea. Could be Gavin, it could be anybody. Anything's possible. I think Trump's going to demolish him in the debate. I think he'll sink to 30% in the polls. And then the Democrats will find a way to give him a graceful out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
He was obviously an OpenAI co-founder, formerly the chief scientist and co-head of Super Alignment. Last month, he announced he was resigning from OpenAI after a decade with the company. And you remember, he was on the board that helped orchestrate Sam Waltman's firing, and then he reversed course a few days after and expressed regret in it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Everybody was asking, where's Ilya doing all of this on Twitter. The co-founders in SSI include Daniel Gross, a YC partner, and Pioneer Labs co-founder and OpenAI engineer Daniel Levy. Company's goal right now is in the title, develop a safe superintelligence.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Here's what Ilya told Bloomberg, the company is special in that its first product will be the safe superintelligence and it will not do anything else wrong. Until then, Friedberg, is this super intelligence, making safe super intelligence a great business model? Or is this something else?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
It's a little bit confusing to come into the market and compete with a throttle or a governor, I guess, on your startup. At least that's what some people are discussing. So what are your thoughts?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Yeah. Okay. A free bird, another assist. Okay. Quick bounce pass to Zach. Zach.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Yes, it's a governor, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
And then they'll field somebody else. I think the Democrats, as cynical as it sounds, were waiting to see what happens with this Trump trials conviction, what you call lawfare, what other people call fair use of the law. And then they are going to see how he does in the debates. That's why they moved the debate up in June. And I think they know to pull the plug on this if it gets too far gone.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
So now they have their own startup. He's got that group that he kicked out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I think the best way to hit truth is to cite your sources. I have been putting into, and I don't know if you've, have you played with 4.0 yet or Claude's new sonnet, Shamath? Yeah. Yeah, I mean, it is unbelievably good. If you put cite your sources, it's really starting to understand what you're asking for.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I don't know if you've seen this, but I was asking it, like I'm hiring some positions, give me the high low average of this position, give me five sources of information, put it in a table, and then average the high, low and median. And it came back to me, Sax, with an incredible thread, Jamal, of this position is and then sourced Glassdoor, you know, Indeed, Salary.com, whatever it was.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
And I was like, holy cow, this is an hour or two of researcher work done instantly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Oh, the endgame is here. Okay. We're in the endgame now. And from a WeWork in the home office in Pasadena is our friend, the Sultan of Science. He's back to work. He's in his cube. Did you get the TPS reports done? How are you doing there, Greenberg?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
And they have the ability to do that because all he's got to say is, you know what, I'm feeling old and I want us to win and I'm going to slot somebody else in. All right. And to wrap this up, prediction markets showing Biden has plummeted to, let's check the number. Oh, yeah. 33% in the sharps, as you've referred to them on the program, are basically saying Biden's going to drop out now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Amazon is coming out with something.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Freiburg, any thoughts on the latest models? Have you played with them? I'm curious. I have been having tremendous results there. It seems like there is, I don't know, I don't want to say a step function, but man, it's a lot better right now. Have you used any of these models and are you applying any of them inside of your company?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I have seen this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Imagine those are amphibians. At the edge of the circle. And they could travel against, they could travel across water and wind up in another destination. I don't know, where would a beach invasion occur? Anyway, that was a very funky tangential aside. All right, we've talked about Microsoft and the bundling issues a number of times here. Sang-Chu had a spicy take on this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Well, the EU discharged Microsoft with antitrust violations over how it bundles Teams. their, quote unquote, Slack killer into Office. Here's a quick chart. Microsoft Teams, obviously, was bundled. Everybody has it automatically with Office. You don't get a choice, and they rocketed to 75 million members in 2020 to Slack's 12 million.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
You've obviously got a lot of thoughts here, I'm sure, too, as well, Jamal, since you were the early investor in this Looks like Salesforce just got a big win. Benioff gave some commentary on X. Microsoft excels with bundling. It's their not-so-secret weapon for dominating new markets. We know the playbook.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Office plus Teams, Windows plus Explorer, Azure plus Visual Studio, 365 plus OneDrive and Xbox plus Game Pass. Here's a clip of Saks discussing this on episode 113 of your All In podcast.
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Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
44% chance over a poly market will Biden drop out of the presidential race and then predicted another one of these prediction markets where you can actually bet real dollars. It's not a plug for them or commercial, just those happen to be two of the bigger ones. Newsom sits at 14% now, Biden 33%, Trump at 58%. At the start of the evening before the debate, Biden was at 47%.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
All right, Sax, you heard your quote there. I'm guessing you're not shocked by this action.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Shamath, what's the middle ground here between the interest of consumers, which is, hey, I'm getting a free version of Slack.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Correct. They boil the frog.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Shamath, what's the balance here between, say, I don't know, Apple giving away a free note-taking app or a free journaling app to consumers and, hey, consumers get this benefit of free product versus the bundling concept here with, hey, we'll give it to you for free, but eventually we're going to boil the frog.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
What's your thought of how to adjudicate this or to execute on it in the best interest of consumers?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Post-debate Chamath, we see Biden dropping 47% to 33%. Nothing like this has happened in modern politics. Your thoughts, Chamath Palihapitiya, and then Sachs will give you the red meat.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
You are so right on this. We are so aligned. If you look at, I've been talking to a lot of LPs
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
and in talking to them they're looking at corporate credit and p e deals because they can get a return on those and then they're looking at venture and they're saying hey why is there no m a occurring where's our dpi can you guys sell some of these companies it's like yeah we can't sell them because lena khan's gonna scuttle this m a and what that means is in a very real way we have
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
dollars being taken out of innovation in early stage and being put into, you know, privatizing SaaS companies, whatever real estate deals. And this is really dangerous for America. We really need more of this. Okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
The bottom line is if left unchecked, you will see people abuse this. It is not a big ass to have a la carte pricing and that will make the playing field much, much more competitive.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I mean, we saw this in the cable providers and DirecTV as well. You know, just you can't not pay for ESPN if you don't like sports. All right, listen, another amazing episode for compassionate Chamath, Satire Sacks, and the Frank Greenberg.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
I just have a perfect wrap-up. Okay, Satire. Sax, go ahead. Continue the gloating. Here we go, Satire.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Oh, God. It's the elder abuse.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
All right, and from Candid Calacanis, and from Candid Calacanis to the Democratic Party, disgraciad, your disgrace. What you did to the American people with this rope-a-dope is ridiculous. Disgraciad. Disgraciad! 25th Amendment, get this guy out of office. President Kamala, hot swap it. Dean Phillips, let's go. We'll see you all next time on the All In Podcast.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Yeah, well said, by the way. Chamath sacks your thoughts on what we witnessed last night and the reaction to it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Okay. So you're building the next $10 billion company and we don't get to invest, but we do get a tour. Thank you. That's good to know. Not that we're bitter. We promote this shit every fucking week.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
You're saying they're lying and they lied to the American.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Absolutely not.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
You said this three fucking times. When do we wet our beaks?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
They stopped interrupting me.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
That's the joke.