Travis Kalanick
Appearances
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Absolutely. I'll mention it three or four times. I'll give you the props. You don't have to do it for yourself anymore.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
But real quick, Sax, you've got you've got an open source model and the white paper they put out there is very specific about what they did to make it and sort of the results they got out of it. I don't think they give the training data, but you could start to stress test what they've already put out there and see if you can do it cheap, essentially.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Yeah, I mean, the high level for it, the way to think about it is it's about the future of food. What does the future of food look like? You go, well, in 100 years, we'll start way out there. In 100 years, you're going to have very high quality food, very low cost. that's incredibly convenient. And there are going to be machines that make it. There are going to be machines that get it to you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
And it's going to be exactly to your dietary preferences, your food preferences, et cetera. And it just comes to you. And it's so inexpensive that it approaches or has surpassed the cost of going to the grocery store. That's more of like a today analogy. So you go, 100 years, of course, that's the thing. Nobody's going to be making food. What about 20? What about 10?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
And so the company is real estate, software, and robotics that's all about the future of food. And if you can get the quality there and you can get that cost down to start approaching the cost of going to the grocery store, you do to the kitchen what Uber did to the car. And that's the thing. And it's like a grind. It's like bits and atoms in the Uber world.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
When you say they, who are you referring to, Sax? Microsoft.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
You guys have a buddy who has R1 on his laptop, you know? Yeah, exactly.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
But guys, what it would take to distill a one, like brute force, it wouldn't be like, oh, geez, I can't believe it was distilled. It would be like such a massive number of calls against an API or against something. Something. That it wouldn't be unnoticed.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
No, no, but they're always doing that. That's constant. You're always doing that. That's like the old school. Go ahead, Zach.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Because you need to test your model against theirs anyways.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
This is like five times more atoms per bit. This is like heavy duty industrial stuff. Probably more along the lines of like, you know, where Elon goes and some of his companies, like they're super interesting tech, but you've got to grind out those atoms.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Here's the other side, and totally agree, Chamath, but here's the other side. You go through the white paper, you see what it is they did, what they innovated on, the science behind it, the thoroughness. And you're like, these guys are badass. They're badass. It does not feel or sound like somebody who took something just when you get through it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
It could be that OpenAI wrote the white paper for them, just putting it out there. But it's real innovative. I agree with that. Real innovation. Strong tech. You're like, this is legit. I agree with that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Look, people will cook in the future as a hobby. I make a joke at the office. I'm like, I like horses. I love horses, but I don't ride a horse to work. And it's going to be a little bit like that. Whereas you can cook. It's a soulful thing to do. It's just very human. But, you know, it's late, you know, mom gets home late from the office, needs to get the kids, you know, a nutritious meal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Embrace and extend.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Oh, I'm getting so excited. Look, I think the first degree out is it's what you got, is there a wrapper company? Okay, so of course, maybe those companies already exist. And then is there a tools company, right? So in a funny way, even though Facebook could be the wrapper, they have a tools business
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
that DeepSeek is basically challenging going full open source and putting something out there that's really good. And what has to happen is Meta has to decide, we are going to embrace and extend this. We're going to make sure that all the developers come to us, that all the cool applications get built here. So I think it's like there's a tools business and then there's the wrapper business.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
um and then you know look when ai here's the one thing on the nvidia thing that i would counter with a little bit of what's been said here is like when ai gets cheap you know what's going to happen guys there's going to be a lot more ai right i don't think i think the price elasticity on this one is actually positive so as the price goes down That's right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
She doesn't have to cook it now and she doesn't, she won't have to cook it and she won't have to go to McDonald's either. It will be high quality and convenient and low cost all at the same time. And yes, dietary preference, everything, because it'll be hyper personalized. Like the way the internet is in content, plus, plus, plus.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
The revenue usage, everything's going to go up. Goes through the roof. This is the history of tech forever. Since like Bill Gates said, I don't know what to do with more than 64 kilobytes of memory.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
And so then you're like, okay, AI is like... You know, it's going to get cheap. It's going to be oil, but it's also going to be specialized for different tasks.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Like you're going to start getting into nuances of like, what is the investor AI look like? What is the autonomous car AI look like? What is the Google search? I'm trying to figure some shit out. The lawyer, the accountant, the pilot. So it could go vertical and siloed, siloed air quotes, but you understand what I'm saying.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
in terms of your specific preferences for what you want i mean you've got these computers rocking oh these robots rocking i think in philly somewhere uh in the lab where they're making bowls yeah i mean we're out of the lab at this point we have our machine so we have a machine called a bowl builder that basically makes different cuisine types with bowls so like think of like
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Okay. So look, I had this thing. I'm going back almost 10 years here. Uber day, we're running Uber China. And I mean, I cannot, there's no way I could express the frenetic intensity of copying that they would do on everything that we would roll out in China. And it was so epically intense that I basically had a massive, amount of respect for their ability to copy what we did.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
I just couldn't believe it. We would do real hard work, make it, we'd dial it and it would be epic and it would be awesome. We'd roll it out and then like two weeks later, They've got it. A week later, boom, they've got it. And of course, I use that to drive our team. And there's so many great stories. I mean, we had like 400 Chinese nationals in Silicon Valley at our offices in San Francisco.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
We had a whole floor for the China growth team, and it was primarily Chinese nationals. We had billboards on the 101 in Silicon Valley in Chinese. Uber billboards to join our team in Chinese to serve the homeland, right? It was like an all-out war. It was really epic. It was epic. And by the way, when you went to that floor in our office, you were in China. Like they rolled China style.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Like the desks were literally smaller. Like the density of the space, it was China, okay? So, but what happens is when you get really, really good at copying and that time gets tighter and tighter and tighter and tighter and tighter, you eventually run out of things to copy. And then it flips- To creativity. To creativity and innovation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
We're not working with these brands specifically, but I'll just sort of, it's a good analogy. Like think of Chipotle or Kava or sweet green, or you get the idea. We created test brands that were like those things and built the machine at the same time as we were building an actual restaurant. And we built that restaurant to prove that the machine works.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Now at the beginning, you know, it's sort of all over the place. Like the kind of innovation when it was new, it was like, what? You know, you're like, really? But as they exercise that muscle- It gets better and better and better. So if you want to know about the future of food, like online food delivery, you don't go to New York City. You go to Shanghai.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Here's an example. If you went to offices like, let's say, Shanghai, Beijing, any of the major cities, Hangzhou, et cetera, the office buildings have hundreds of lockers around their perimeter. So that everything that you get, whether it be food or anything else, but especially food, is just the couriers drop them off in these lockers at the office buildings.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
And then there are a whole other set of people that are sort of like inter-office runners that then bring it to your office. As an example, and when you see it, you're like, and it's epically efficient. And they're taking advantage of their economics on labor and things like this. It wouldn't exactly work that way here. But a lot of the innovation you will see coming out of Uber Eats or DoorDash
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
like the stuff that's coming out now is stuff that existed three years ago, four years ago in China, maybe longer. So like eventually you cross that threshold of copying and you are innovating and then you're leading. And I think we see that in a whole bunch of different places.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Well, look, we Okay, so we got a couple things. So we have in every one of our facilities, and we've got, you know, hundreds of them will have lockers there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
So the courier then waves their phone in front of a camera, the right locker pops open, they get the food from there, and they go, the courier pickup is asynchronous from production of food, you know, you don't have lines anymore, there's no more lines, which then speeds up delivery, shortens the amount of time shortens is reduces how much money you spend on couriers.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
And we've got a whole other thing. This doesn't work. It probably wouldn't work in China because, well, for a lot of reasons, but let me explain what it is. It's called Picnic, where if you are in an office building, you order food, you go to a website, you order whatever it is from 100 different restaurants. Those restaurants happen to be in my facilities.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
There'll be one courier that goes to one of our facilities and picks up 50 orders at a time, brings it to an office, puts it, there's a shelf on every floor. You get notified when your food arrives, and it arrives the same time every day, and you just go to the shelf, get it on your floor, and dip it right back into your meeting.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Saving people time at the office, giving them selection on food, especially in food deserts, but even going, like there's a Sweetgreen right down there in my office right now, I can say 20 minutes by just using our own service versus doing that. And you get it at the same price because the courier economics, the courier is delivering 50 orders at a time. So courier costs go basically to zero.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Then we have our customers now touring, checking it out. We're rolling out with five customers in April. They're using the machine and the way it will, the way it's going to go down is they will come into, and we, of course we have the real estate. So we have kitchens, you know, tens of thousands of kitchens around the world. They will come into one of our kitchens in a facility.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
It's a delivery only restaurant. They'll prep the food in the morning and then they will leave. And the machine will, if you will order online, DoorDash, Uber Eats, et cetera, they'll order online the way they do. Build your own bowl exactly as you want. And the bowl gets all the ingredients dispensed, hot or cold, sauce, et cetera, gets lidded. The bowl goes into a bag.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Okay, so I need to bust a myth. I did not take money from Masa. So he begged me to take money for years and we did not take it because he is a – what's the word I'm looking for? I don't know. He's a promiscuous investor. So once he invests in you, you should probably count on him using your information and investing in all of your competitors. At least that's historically what he's done.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
So I didn't go there. But then he just kept investing in all my competitors and they kept subsidizing these markets. And then I'm like, maybe I should have just saturated, soaked up the money that was there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
So one of the things you should think about when you look at like, oh, is OpenAI taking a lot of money from a MASA type situation is it's a little bit of like a double-edged sword, is if you don't take that money, it goes somewhere else. But if you do take that money, just know that
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Whatever intelligence they get when they go through the process of giving you the money and maybe hanging around the board or who knows what is going to be used to do other things. And that is the nature of the MASA machine. So you're damned if you do, damned if you don't. But you got to pick.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
And if the money's going and it's flowing and access to capital is a strategic competitive weapon or advantage, you must play ball. Yeah. Now, we did stuff with the Saudis before even Vision Fund existed. They stroked a $3.5 billion check when that was the biggest thing that ever happened. So we were okay with not having the MASA money, but that MASA money then went to all of our competitors.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Well, look, I think this goes to some of the things that Shamath is saying, which is like if constraint is the mother of invention or whatever that euphemism is, the aphorism is, if that's the case, you get into a real weird spot when you get over- Capitalized.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
In the Uber model, the war was subsidizing rides for market share, essentially being the wrapper for transportation and using the parlance we were using earlier in this discussion. So it was necessary. You're screwed if you don't. The question is, do you get to this place of overcapitalized, too big, too bureaucratic, too loose, too weak, too soft?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
When you have an open source model that's very smart and it's a thousand flowers blooming, lots of innovation happening everywhere, could be an overwhelming force. Now, I think there's going to be different sectors treated different ways where like going full stack in certain industry sectors is going to matter.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
The utensils go into the bag. The bag is sealed, and then it comes out on a conveyor belt. And machine gets the bag. It goes to the front of the facility. It gets put into a locker. That locker then is sitting there. DoorDash Uber Eats driver comes, waves their phone with an app in front of a camera, and it pops open the locker that has the food that you're supposed to get.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
And then in other places having like a very sort of chaotic, everybody does a little slice. It's going to be okay in other places. And I think we could probably spend days or hundreds of dozens of hours just talking about the nuances there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Well, I take Washington Post off that list, but yes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
The New York Times comes off the list too.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Jason, you're such an old school copyright guy. You're such an old school media guy, by the way.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
So like, if you're, if you're a restaurateur, you're the grind of the on demand meal, which is the restaurant world goes away, you basically prep. And that's asynchronous from when people order food, the machine does the final assembly, or what's known as plating, essentially.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Yeah. I mean, here's the thing, guys. At some point, the amount of data becomes the long pole in the tent. At some point, the quality of the algorithms becomes a long pole in the tent and more compute is not going to change that. I don't think we're there yet.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
That's the one thing that counters the cheap AI means more AI is, is there enough data and or algorithms to make the more AI, to make it work? And I do agree with the siloing it and getting expert and getting better in these ways. But I think this is an interesting sort of trade-off between some of these variables.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
How do I get on this group chat? What's that about?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
So first, what we do is we serve the restaurants. So Chamath, you'll be sharing your dietary preferences with Uber Eats or DoorDash or Sweetgreen or somebody. Like our customer promise at our company is we serve those who serve others. Or put another way is infrastructure for better food. So we are either the AWS or the NVIDIA or whatever you want to call it, but for food, if that makes sense.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
It's also inflationary. It's also inflationary, Dave. That's right. For sure.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Look, this is really one of those interesting things where it's like the difference between legislature and executive branch is like Doge is really bringing it to life, is like what powers and controls does the executive branch have to spend and not to spend, and especially to not spend when it's been legislated to spend. This is where the action is.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
There's no law that says, you can give a bunch of folks eight months of severance and they're gone and you don't replace them. There's no law that says that. The executive branch, and again, I don't know the rules or laws about how they go about doing it, but let's say presumably they're doing this and there's some legal backing behind it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
They just go and do it, and now they're not spending money. If it was really hard to hire people, and they could even make it harder to hire people, do they fight bureaucracy with bureaucracy that it's harder to spend, harder to hire people, harder to procure certain things that you're supposed to spend money on?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
And you can reduce the spend through a lot of very interesting, nuanced rules that they're in control of.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
I mean, it'll be interesting to see if it's 5% or 10% on RTO. I mean, it could be a lot more. I mean, what I'm hearing about these buildings is that they are super, super empty, like next level empty. And let's just say I'm really glad I don't hold it. Like I'm an owner that has a bunch of leases to the federal government right now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
We're behind the scenes. We're the infrastructure. And so you'll give your preferences.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Guys, just for kicks, check this out, right? If we took 2019 spend, right, the year before COVID, and put it up against 2024 revenues, $500 billion surplus. Wow. Bingo. That's crazy. Versus the $1.5 trillion deficit. Oh my God. So a $2 trillion swing on like a- In four years. Yeah, on a $4 trillion budget. That's all waste.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
I mean, guys, this is the thing. There's two deflationary things that we need. One is Doge, and two is where AI is going to take us if it really does its thing. And that will keep us in an okay spot economically. But this spend has to go, or we're in Greek territory, if that makes sense.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
That's really awesome. You just authenticate Apple Health. When these bowls come off the line, and see how I talk, it's like an assembly line. When these bowls come off the line, on... The label on the bowl is how many grams of every ingredient is in it, plus a picture of what it was before we put the lid in. That can be sent to the person while the bowl's on its way via a courier, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
I mean, look, it's funny because, as you guys know, back in the day, 2015, 16, 17, we had our own autonomous vehicles out there. And I remember the first one of ours that I took. And I got in the back and all I had was a stop button, a big red stop button that I could push if things got weird. And I remember this was in Pittsburgh where we had our robotics division and autonomy division at Uber.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
And I got out of that car and literally it's like I got off a roller coaster ride. Like my legs were, I could not stand straight. Like I was like a little wobbly because I was so freaked out and the adrenaline was pumping. you get in a Waymo today and it's like, you're not even thinking twice. You're just like, it's all good. You just get in, you get out. Now part of it's just the normalization.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It's like, It's just working and that normalizing matters in terms of the psychology around it. We're just there. So it just works. Now, is it an optimized experience for ride sharing? No. Like the cyber cab is sort of the ultra sort of destination for what it means to get transported across a city in a vehicle that is not meant for a human to drive.
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No steering wheel, folks potentially even facing each other, just a whole bunch of different formats. The technology works. We know that. There are different ways to get to the technology. I think that probably the most interesting thing that we should be – or one of the most interesting things to be thinking about, maybe there's a few. First is cheap AI makes cheap autonomy.
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Okay, so if as cheap AI gets out there and proliferates and gets broadly distributed, we should expect autonomy gets easier and easier and easier. And you see some of the stuff that's happening with Tesla and FSD, their new models are like, I think in a three month period, they went up like 10x in terms of performance, meaning A number of miles per human intervention.
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That's the thing that Elon's seeing right now because cheap AI, cheap good AI makes cheap good autonomy. And that's a thing we need to connect the dots on. I think the thing then you go one level past that, you're like, okay, there's the possibility literally that autonomy just gets easy and commoditized similar to what's happening to AI. The next part is, okay, you get the hardware.
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You're like, okay, manufacturing's hard. That's interesting. That could be a long pull in the tent. I think that could be a place where Tesla, of course, has huge advantage. You then look at who are Waymo's partners. Are they getting set up to do the right kind of manufacturing and get scale of cars out there?
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But then there's like this dark horse that nobody's talking about, which is it's called electricity. It's called power. And all these vehicles are electric vehicles. And if you said, yeah, I just did some like quick back of the envelope calcs. If all of the miles in California went EV ride sharing, you would need to double the energy capacity of California. Right.
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Let's not even talk about what it would take to double the energy capacity in the grid and things like that in California. Let's not even go there. Even getting 20% more, 10% more is going to be a gargantuan five to 10 year exercise. Look, I live in LA.
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It's a nice area in LA and we have power outages all the freaking time because the grid is effed up and they're sort of upgrading it as things break. That's literally where we're at in LA, one of the most affluent neighborhoods in LA. That's just where we are. So I think the sort of the dark horse kind of hot take is combustion engine AVs.
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I think, look, I think like what we see with supply chains in a bunch of different industries, it's just going to get super wired up. Right now we're at the point of manufacturing, but what happens? So you go, okay, we're doing assembly. Then you go, okay, what about prep? Then you go further upstream and you're like, what about supply chain like Cisco, US Foods?
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Because I don't know how you can go fast getting AV out there really, really, really massive with the electric grid as it is.
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You know, I think similar to how you get normalized, it's like you're used to getting in a car. It's normalized psychologically and in the sort of public sphere, the public mindset, you get used to it. So like we're getting to a place where these vehicles are provably safer than human driven vehicles.
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So yes, there are mistakes, but they're just provably safer and people are just getting used to it. And that's a big part of the cycle. So I think we're getting out of the hysteria and we're getting into like, yeah, it's just great. Like talk to people who are using it and they feel safer from, of course, like I feel like we're going to get in less accidents.
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But also I feel safer because there's like there's less chance of like an interpersonal problem that does happen, especially, you know. Late at night, you know, when people are out partying and things like this, there's just like, there is a level of safety on many different aspects to these vehicles. For the driver, yeah.
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For the driver, no, it's for the, yeah, there's like, there's safety aspects across the board. Sure. Right.
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So look, I think the big issue you have with anything Chinese is will you be allowed to bring it in the US? Just period. You maybe kind of can now. What happens with tariffs? Will there be blocks in bringing this kind of technology into the US? What happens there? I think that's a whole thing. The bet that Uber makes is that
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whether consciously or subconsciously, that it's like, will AI, will cheap democratized AI happen? And if so, does that make cheap democratized autonomy? Then you've got to line up your physical sort of hardware partners, the car manufacturers. Then you've got to say, okay, is the electricity where it's at? And are there other bets to make to make sure that I can charge my cars?
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And then you go further up and you're like, well, how does the mechanization occur on farms and in agriculture? And then how does that all get wired up to serve the customer and sort of what they're looking for? So you really can know exactly what kind of wheat was put into that food. Whether it was organic for real or not, what was the actual field it came from? Things like this.
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So like there is a huge real estate play here and fleet management play of like, how do I electrify these plots of land known as parking lots and also set them up so that robots can clean cars in sort of a very, very efficient way. There's like a whole, when we talk about- Fleet management, yeah.
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Greenland, let's go. So guys, I think there's a couple interesting things. One of them is going to be how are these companies thinking about real estate, electrifying that real estate in urban environments and roboticizing that real estate so that they can do the servicing, maintenance, et cetera. Look, I guess it could be manual for a while. But hold on.
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Okay. Let's just go down ride-sharing lane, autonomous ride-sharing lane. You go down that lane, car ownership, which is already dropping, drops like a knife all the way down. There's this thing in cities which takes up 20% to 30% of all the land. It's called parking. It's no longer necessary because cars are getting utilized.
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The cars that exist on the roads are getting utilized 15x more than they were before per car. So you need hypothetically 1 15th number of cars. Maybe you could say 1 5th or 1 10th because you want to be able to surge to like rush hour and things like that. It depends on what kind of carpooling and things like this that are going on. But let's just call it.
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10X fewer cars, one-tenth the land necessary for parking, at least one-tenth. Maybe it's less than that. So now you're opening up 20% of the land in a city that just goes fallow.
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Well, look, I mean, maybe it's the- Should it be housing?
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There's a massive amount of creativity to say, what can I do with that land with a high ROI? Some people are like, you're going to have farms, hydroponic farms in urban environments. I'm like,
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Yeah. So there's some interesting ideas. The land price has to really come crashing down, and there's interesting ramifications if it were to do that.
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You're leading the witness.
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You can imagine really getting tight about supply chain as it relates to dietary stuff and as it relates to maha. Hell to the yes. I mean, I ordered a couple different – I went to RFK Jr. 's website and they have like the – he has merch. He has Maha merch. I have the green Maha merch hat. I should have worn it today. I'm all about it. Did you get the onesie? That's amazing.
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Right. But the crazy part is, is it could just be electricity production and electric capacity on the grid could be the gating factor that makes it a slow burn. Potentially. I'm just riffing here, guys. Right, right, right.
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You go energy storage, electric grid upgrades, sort of modular energy capacity upgrades and production. This is going to be very, very important. Right now, if you want to, I mean, we do this all the time. We have, of course, facilities all over every major city in the US and really around the world.
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utility upgrades is the long pole in the tent in construction development in a lot of our cities, not all cities, but in a lot of our cities.
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And then it's like, what are these auctions going to look like, guys? This is the thing we all got to believe.
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And Dave, it's like, it either does that or it really, really doesn't. Or it does like the exact super nasty, really bad. That's right.
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But the thing is, it's like that whole thing of like, it's going to get to five and a half before it comes down. It's like, it spirals on itself. It's like, you got to print money to then get to that place. And then the printing drives it for, you know, you get to that spiral.
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But Shamath, it just doesn't work like that, man. My thing is, I agree with the notion, but I just don't believe that any individual congressperson will take responsibility in this way.
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Yeah. Or put another way, again, the executive branch can slow roll spend in a lot of different ways.
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That was a lot of fun, guys. First time. It's my first time on a podcast ever.
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You were great.
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Appreciate it.
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I love this.
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It's the classic, that's the classic artificial, artificial intelligence, right? This is like the mechanical Turk thing. I mean, look, here's the thing. Here's a little nuance that's super interesting about automation in QSR restaurants is that they have an existing brick and mortar that's built a certain way.
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That layout is meant for humans and for those humans to work in certain processes in exact and very specific way. Every square inch of that kitchen and that space is dialed. When you go and put a machine like this in, it changes the whole thing.
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And so just to get going, you've got to like do, you've got to, like if you're to replace the front line at Chipotle, you've got to take out that front line. You've got to demo it.
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You've got to put in a new machine.
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And so now it's like a huge amount of capex. My store's down for two to three months. And the economics start to not work. And by the way, I still have to have humans in that brick and mortar. And so, you know, look, we have a different take. We're in that delivery only model. So these are it's true infrastructure for making food behind the scenes for delivery. So you don't have these issues.
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And of course, our setup, our infrastructure, these kitchens are designed for these kinds of machines to be in them and vice versa. We've designed the machine to be in them.
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I just heard this voice from above. It was the czar of AI and crypto. I was like, wow, let's all sit back and listen.
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I'm doing really well. I got to say, just like at the Summit, Jason, it's an honor to be in the presence of... Such a prominent Uber investor.