Keith Rabois
Appearances
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Well, I share, actually, you're both right in some ways. If you look at who's Trump's pick, these successful people, they're not typically being assigned to industries they came from. So it's not like he's taking drugging. He's actually taking the opposite, like you think of RFK, for example. So actually, I think you can take successful people who have proven themselves through merit.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
I think that's one of the other benefits of the real world is the only way you get ahead is you're in a Darwinistic experiment with other people that are comparable. And to be successful, you have to outthink, outwork, et cetera. And that shows up ultimately in promotions and net worths and various other metrics.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
So Trump has taken a lot of successful people, and I think we want a society where we aspire for our kids to be successful. We want to emulate successful people. That only yields more success. Having Elon involved in the government will yield more success than if you penalize successful people. You stigmatize it, you get less of it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
So I think if you transplant successful people into industries that they're not from and that they have no interest in going to after the government, you might get the best of both worlds. Because I can see some of the critiques of, you know, you're regulating your friends' companies and you're going to make money later. That said, most of Trump's people are not going to do that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
You can also pass laws like, you know, you can't lobby, you can't work for X years after. Yeah. There's also this great data point. I think it's in the last 60 years. Trump is the only president whose net worth went down after office. Every other president took a relatively modest net worth or mediocre net worth and turned it into a stratosphere.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
So you think about the president as the signature example. It's great that Trump is setting the opposite illustration.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Yeah, I mean, I think it's critical in venture to not really fall for that trap. I always mention that I don't like people with expertise, typically, as founders. I think in what I call due diligence or call experts, I only ask one question, which is, what is metaphysically impossible about this working? Like, is there a law of physics that I don't understand that makes this actually impossible?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
And if they can't isolate a very specific principle that makes it or fact that makes it actually impossible, then I just ignore everything they're saying, you know, write a check.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Well, they're experts in a prior world, right? They've learned why not. And this is actually like to combine a couple of topics here. The reason why Trump is so effective. So the most interesting question to me over the last year was, how is this guy who everybody in the media and everybody in the legal groups of various things is trying to attack and hate and all these people publish these books.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Yeah, I don't really love dictators. They're not good for society. They're not good for America. But, you know, it's not always America's job to fix all of that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Why is he on the precipice of being elected president of the United States twice? You must have a superpower or two. Most people do not get elected president of the United States twice. And most of the people who are attacked by everybody who has power in the establishment definitely do not get elected president twice.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
So what it came down to, and I interviewed a lot of people who are critics of him, but knew him well, like ex-cabinet people that don't like him. Comes down to, he just asks a lot of why. Like, why do we do this? Why do we have to do it this way? Why have we done it this way?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
And it turns out in politics and in DC, most of the answers are pretty mediocre or weak or poor or haven't been rethought for 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70 years. And so he just constantly dives in and says, why, why, why, why? And that's actually what predicts success for founders is in a domain they don't know anything about. They're just like, why?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Why do we take these hotel things for granted in the Airbnb case? Why should they be so expensive? Why should scarcity prevail in New York for four months of the year, et cetera, et cetera?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Yes, actually. So I believe in the founder mode, the Brian Chesky founder mode. I held a conference in New York recently that Brian was nice enough to speak at called hiring the art of hiring for founder mode.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
So specifically for people who subscribe founders that subscribe to that view, how do you hire people and how is that different than what you would hire in a standard, you know, monstrosity of a company like Google or something?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Yeah, LinkedIn was pretty key. Like Reed left PayPal, started LinkedIn.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
So yes, that's true. And then after that, I went back with back selection from PayPal days to slide, which is on the outsheep of history. We don't have to talk about that. But then I did jump into Square as the 20th employee and helped build a pretty good company.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Yeah, so I think... First of all, I think there's a long time before this becomes a commercial product or application of any sort. So, you know, it's great that they're taking money, but think about it as like almost like Stanford takes money or the US government funds basic research in some ways. This is at least a decade out kind of thing.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
There's another, I mean, this area way beyond my expertise, but I've been talking to a lot of smart people because I do do financial services innovation. And obviously encryption is pretty critical, whether it's Bitcoin or other places. And there's a couple of concerns. One is it's not even clear that you can verify that this is true, by the way.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Like standard computing, to explain sort of the magnitude of difference, standard computing would take 10 to the 25th years to verify that Google analysis is accurate. So there's a chance that it's not even true.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
And then to be practical, like, so assuming you solve all this and it's accurate and blah, blah, blah, you make it fast and all that. Second, then, there is the post-quantum computing encryption, which, you know, a lot of people, a lot of things, a lot of important things have switched over to. So you have historical communications, right?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
that were encrypted under an old paradigm that would be vulnerable. And every year that goes by, the embarrassment level or the threatening level of old historical communications will probably have some decay function or some half-life. So if it takes another 10 years, communications that were drafted 20 years ago, yeah, there'll be some embarrassing things and blah, blah, blah, blah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
But the more time it takes, the more safe private communications and exchanges will be. So I think that's positive. Third, is there's a question of order of magnitude here. You mentioned you need like three orders of magnitude sort of improvement. Is each step function, you know, incrementally easier and faster or is each step function, you know, 10 years?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
And I don't know that anybody knows the answer to that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Not yet. We have looked at KB, talking about technology forward VCs. Over the years, I've sat through partner presentations, and we've never really pulled the trigger. There's other reasons, including even if you have quantum computing, you have to rewrite software on top of it. It's a completely different world.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
I became a VC, you know, became lazy, you know, decided to be a VC in 2013, spent six years at Coastal Ventures, five at Founders Fund last year, almost the last year now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
So you're starting from scratch. So you have an application layer, which might be actually an interesting business opportunity.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Yeah. Who's going to write the basic? Who's going to write like the Microsoft basic?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
There's an advantage of Monday partner meetings is I get to watch the science fiction stuff every week, even if I don't really understand it. But like a decade of watching science fiction, you pick up some tricks.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Actually, so I don't play chess at all. Okay. The reason why is if I do something, I want to be really proficient at it. I don't have the time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
That's true. So I had the benefit of having Vinod on the board of Square, which I think is typically how executives wind up turning into VCs, is you forge a relationship with board members. So like, for example, Rolof Bote, who runs Sequoia, had Mike Moritz on his board. Rolof was our CFO at PayPal, and Mike recruited him.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
So the most important thing about Apple is to remember it's vertically integrated. And vertically integrated companies, when you construct them properly, have a competitive advantage that really cannot be assaulted for a decade, 20, 30, 40, 50 years. And so chips, classic illustration, go all the way down to the metal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
and build a chip that's perfect for your desired interface, your desired use cases, your desired UI, and nobody's going to be able to compete with you. And if you have the resources, because you need balance sheet resources to go in the chip direction, it just gives you another five-inch hang your sort of competitive advantage. And so I love vertically integrated companies.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
I posted a pinned tweet, I think it's still my pinned tweet, about vertically integrate is the solution to the best possible companies. But it's very difficult. You need different teams with different skill sets, and you need probably more money, truthfully, more capital. But Apple is just going to keep going down the vertical integration, software, hardware, all day long.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
So that's a very common, same thing, Ravi at Sequoia today was the COO and CFO of Instacart. Again, same thing, Mike recruited him into Sequoia. So I think that's typically how people become VCs. I always knew I wanted to be a VC since 2003. I was a very active angel investor, as you know, even when I was concentrating on all these other jobs, I was writing a lot of checks.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
And there's nobody else who does hardware and software together in the planet, which is kind of shocking in some ways. Is there a world-class company, a company that's world-class in both software and hardware other than Apple?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Yeah, maybe. NVIDIA? Google? Well, not really. Could they do a world-class UI? Maybe. Maybe there's a foundation, but you have to have a different vision, maybe a different team. Not clear. Tesla's close, I guess. I'd say the software's good.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Apple has a lot of competitive advantages that they've been actually leveraging for about 15 years now. And even back then, Steve, there's some old great Steve videos. I'll see if I can find you a clip where he talks about this very intentionally from the 1990s. He came back to Apple.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
He said, we're doing vertical integration, basically using those words of software and hardware, and there's going to be nobody else that can compete with us. I think it's in an interview he did, and it's published in the company of giants, I believe. And he's perfect on point. He just followed that strategy for the next 25 years.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Now, you're seeing some of the manifestations, though, of a competitive strategy that gives you incredible advantages is you get very sloppy in other places, especially over time. Because you have such great competitive modes that you don't have to compete at the cutting edge of this. The Photos app is completely unusable. I'm the biggest Apple fanboy in the world.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
I remember interviewing once with a job for Tim Cook. And I walked in and he's like, why are you interested? And I said, well, you know, I own every SKU of every product you've ever produced, except I don't have every color of each iPod. And he was like blown away. And but now like my photos app is completely unusable. So I totally understand, you know, the frustration.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
And they are showing like the decay function, you know, culturally and otherwise, that eventually somebody will figure out an angle to rip them out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
And so anybody who's writing a lot of active angel checks probably has in the back of their mind, one day I might want to be a professional investor. We could talk about the merits or demerits of that, but the goal was pretty clear in my mind. And then at some point, I think you have to make a decision. What do you want to be in life? Venture has long time horizons.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Yeah. Let me pause, double click on that for a second. So I think taste is great if you have it, but there's only so many people on the planet that are going to have cutting edge taste and be right. If you don't have taste, what most tech companies do is they use data.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
data is something that's approachable and leverageable because Apple has like the antibodies to using data to measure success with the user experience to measure whatever success. If you subtract taste even by a bit, you don't have the scaffolding that every other company would use. And so you see the worst of both worlds.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
The scaffolding you had at Facebook Meta, obviously, or that Google uses, would catch some of the stuff, without a doubt, no doubt about it. You'd know that users are less thrilled, and they'd use things less, and you'd fix it. And maybe even you take that to an extreme, you never develop taste. I could argue that about Google or Meta. They don't really have taste.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
But you could argue the paradigms. But fundamentally, if you don't have that backstop, if the taste subtracts even 10%, not all the way down, you're just not going to catch this stuff. And I think there's only... How many people in the world really have cutting edge technology user experience taste? I don't know too many. I would fund them right away.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
It's an incredible... Brian Chesky might have it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
It's more predictable scale. It's certainly more scalable, right? Like you take Steve out, you don't need a dictator, but you do need a taste and taste is artistic. The same thing with venture, like, you know, like scaling venture funds is really, really challenging because early stage investing is more like taste than data driven. And later stage, you can use data and scale it and scaffolding.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
So I think there's just fields. It's a little bit also, you see like these sports teams, like this happened at Stanford when Jim Harbaugh left and, It took years for the decay function for the next coaching regime to show they were completely incompetent. The next year, they were pretty good. The next year, they lost one more game than they should have.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
It is a job for life, like 15, 20 years is pretty much what you have to commit to. So you don't really want to start venture when you get too old because 20 years, you'll be like Donald Trump age. Yeah. So I can run for president in 25 years or something.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
The next year, they lost two more games than they should have, blah, blah, blah. And then eventually, they became horrible. And there's a decay function with an organization when you take out the person who is the original thinker or the leader or the dictator or whatever. And so I think some of this is showing up now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
And then playing on a field that's not favorable to them, which is there are advantages Apple has in AI. But there's some significant organizational structural disadvantages. And that's the field that people are going to be competing on for the next five years from a consumer perspective. And they're playing on a field where they don't have all the advantages in their favor.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
You don't even have to have a conversation, in my view. TikTok is a threat. to the national security of the United States.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Why? So I think there's different dimensions. One of the problems is there's so many things wrong with TikTok that actually sometimes people get confused because there's not just one. It'd be easier sometimes if there's just one. So they are definitely using the app to track data about Americans. And there's evidence that regardless of what alleged protections exist,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
There are people in China monitoring what certain people in the United States are doing. And the CEO lied under oath to congressional committees about this. And the evidence is now in the public domain. Hopefully, this Justice Department will prosecute him for lying under oath. I think setting a really good example that you cannot just perjure yourself before Congress.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
So there are people in China who on the record have said they had access and had access to American user data, which he swore under oath to the Congress that they were storing the data in Texas somewhere. and that there's no possibility that Chinese nationals in China could access the data. There is now several instantiations of this in the public record, let alone what's privately available.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Then secondly, let me keep going here because it's worse. So there's a law. The fundamental problem is in China, there's a law that says if you're a Chinese company, upon request of the CCP, you must provide all user data. So any Chinese company is subject to that law, period. There's no court intervention. You don't need a subpoena, blah, blah, blah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
And so any Chinese, any executive at that company is subject to significant penalties. on the record for not providing any user data at the request of the CCP. So as long as that law exists, there's a real structural threat to the United States.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
So COSA was great. I spent six years there. The truthful reason why I left, it's kind of funny given COVID and how history changes. I hated commuting to Sand Hill Road every day. We were one office period in office every single day. And I felt like the future of investing was more in San Francisco. than in Palo Alto at the time. And I just despise sitting in a car 45 minutes each direction.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Now, then there's the, is the app being used, manipulated on a content basis to influence policy in the United States to disadvantage this or that or create hostilities? I don't really know the answer. I think there's been studies that suggest that and pretty rigorous methodologies, but that's a second level. And then third is there's the, why the hell are we allowing
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Chinese companies to compete with us when no American content-based organization is allowed into the Chinese market, whether it's Meta, Google, X. There's a strong argument there that Reddit, if you don't allow our content or non-Chinese content into your market, why should we be enabling Chinese companies to be successful in quotes in the US market? And that's more of a fair trade, free trade
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Yes. So my evidence for this that I believe is an interpolation of what's in the public domain is if you looked at that vote to ban TikTok, it was extremely bipartisan, despite controversy. And what happened was that vote was taken a week after there was an intelligence briefing to both the House and Senate intelligence committees. That's confidential.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
And the votes, you know, all of a sudden flowed through. I think there's things that are not in the public domain about TikTok that spooked a lot of elected officials and led to this bipartisan consensus. How many bipartisan votes do we see on an allegedly controversial issue that, you know, basically the vote was like, you know, like not even close in either house. 360 to 58. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
When do you see a vote like that on something meaningful? Never.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
On an app that's used by, you know, huge traction of the American public.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Arguably. Arguably. In theory, there's some risk. I can see that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Turns out, you know, COVID changed everything, how people do their work. Like we're recording this by Zoom. Before COVID, we'd probably all be in the same studio recording a podcast like this. And so, but Vinod and the team was very inflexible about it. And Founders Fund was located in the city. Obviously, I knew Peter since college, as Jason alluded to.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Right. At some price point, right? What I would do if I were president, I'd say, you tell me the fair market price for TikTok and I'll go find, you know, I'll make sure that there's buyers. Right. Because CCP won't name any price. There is no price. It's the greatest tool they could ever have. That would be like giving up your nukes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
I don't think they should have to sell at a less than fair market price. I think that's legit. I believe in capitalism. But any free market should allow for some price discovery. And if they can't name any price period, that suggests that you're doing something that's nefarious. There's a reason, by the way, Chamath, you probably know this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Eight to 10, 12 ounces max, medium, you know, solid. I don't really care on the cut. Yeah, pretty much. Wagyu, I'll be a little non-American, go Wagyu, you know, like Australia or Japanese. Yeah, sure.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
I'm a mad girl, you know, red meat Republican.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
And I decided that, you know, it was better for me. I remember talking to Sam Altman, And I said, am I crazy for changing funds mostly on a commute basis? And Sam said, you're human. And every single study of human happiness is it's inversely correlated to your commute time. It's like, there's nothing wrong with being human. In any event, there are a lot of similarities between FF and KB.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, I'd say that you should cut that data by AI and non-AI, and you might see a tell to different cities. My anecdotal experience is there's AI companies where the market's pretty hot, maybe cooling a little bit, but hot, and AI companies with the right team are getting funded frequently, quickly, etc.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And then there's non-AI companies, and I think you'll see a very different sort of chart there. I do think net-net, you're probably at a steady state that looks reasonable across 40 years, etc., But it would be interesting. And you have to make some methodological decisions about what's an AI company, what's not.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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But if you could do that, it'd be interesting to see if the lines look similar or not. But it's pretty hot. People starting companies, founders are optimistic. Crypto companies also are back in vogue, obviously, due to the change in administration. I think a lot of people have been hesitant to start new crypto companies. Of course, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And there's a belief and confidence in the new administration, the SEC, et cetera. So we'll see if the innovation accelerates with all the new capital and all the new founders back in crypto. In enterprise software... It had been pretty cool, non-AI-based enterprise software. But, you know, like as you mentioned with the IPO this week, trading very aggressively.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think, you know, maybe there's some inspiration there for, you know, more traditional, boring tech companies. Stripe. Stripe. Stripe should go public, but, you know, they don't listen to me, so...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I personally believe and subscribe to the view that companies should go public as early as possible on the Bill Gurley sort of school of thought.
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$50 million minimum, but predictability matters definitely, so not just $50 million, but $50 million with line of sight to $100 million and knowing $100 million to $200 million. I wrote a whole chapter in Eli Gill's high growth handbook on why companies should go public as early as possible. So I've been on this crusade forever. I like accountability, transparency, discipline.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think they're good things. And there's a critique that like, oh, you're not going to be innovative anymore. If you look at some of the companies we've been talking about, what are some of the most innovative companies in the world? They're public companies.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It just takes the right leader to say, I'm going to be innovative and I don't care what the bureaucrats and lawyers, I'm just not going to get distracted with that. And so I like public companies. And so I think you'll see a lot of the companies I am involved in go public at a fairly rapid clip by historical standards. Different founders, though, have different sort of views on this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Both are great funds that have put up incredible returns, have funded iconic founders and companies, but they're very different. KB is involved as early as possible, and FF is a momentum investor and is maybe the best on the planet at being a momentum investor. So almost every successful investment of founders fund over eight funds, was invested at $500 million or more entry valuation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It's very reasonable. Stripe, SpaceX, for example, founded 2003. Who knows when it's going to be a public company? So you can have a very successful company like SpaceX or Stripe. But my preference is to go public early. And then you have the capital, resources, equity, or capital to be strategic, per your point about potentially missing window.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And they were able to transact in that particular case and get ahead of the curve, or at least not miss the curve. But sometimes when you're a private company, there are strategic assets that you can't get your hands on. And think about Facebook buying Instagram. We talked about the taste issue. Instagram had taste at the time, like Kevin had taste.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And think about where meta would be had they not been able to acquire Instagram.
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Yeah, or WhatsApp.
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You know, honestly, yeah. Without sharing like, you know, one-on-one conversation sort of stuff. I think the question, the burden, they inverted the burden, which is why should we go public? A lot of, a lot of people ask the question the opposite way, which is, you know, why wouldn't I go public? I think their first principle thinkers like put, put my point about Trump.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And I think true of Elon, they asked like, why? And they're like, well, what advantages would we get? And I actually think the M&A one is very real. I think they've been able to construct alternatives to most of the advantages, but not every company is going to be able to do that. It took a lot of effort, energy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And then the question is, would you substitute that energy into something else that might be higher value creation if you weren't creating the alternatives to a public structure?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So I 100% agree, 100% agree with this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
And almost every single investment at KV in eight funds was like the seed or series A investment with very few exceptions ever. And so Anduril and Ramp are the only exceptions at Founders Fund. Wow. And at KV, the only exception would be Stripe, which I led in 2013 or so, which was an order of magnitude higher valuation than any KV initial investment ever.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, I also agree. So I used to be an antitrust litigator, which I know Jason knows. And I think I hate like, you know, the current leadership, the antitrust division. I called her a fraud. And I think she is intellectually a fraud.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, she published a paper that was false. Like her whole claim to fame is this paper about Amazon. And the data in the Amazon, the data she used in the paper at Yale was false. She's too smart to have done it accidentally. Benedict Evans wrote a good critique of it if you want to read all about the data. Second thing is you look at Amazon, which is this alleged quintessential example.
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Have you heard of Shopify? Shopify is one of the biggest success stories of the last decade, right down the middle competitive with Amazon. And there was nothing Amazon could do. They lost the core market to a competitor that was started and went public at a very low valuation. And Shopify is dominating D2C commerce. Nobody builds a D2C commerce brand except on Shopify.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So everything about her is like a fraud. That said, I don't believe that what she's done has affected, you know, exits very much at all. Because like the truth is in high-end venture, like institutional venture capital, other than the WhatsApp and like maybe like a plot acquisition or something like one every two years.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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You don't drive returns in venture to an institutional venture capital fund through an M&A. WhatsApp may be the only one that really drove a fund returning exit to a serious fund. It just doesn't happen that way. I need IPOs to return our funds. Our funds are like billions of dollars. You don't get returns on lots of acquisitions at $50 million to $100 million. Yeah, but a $300 million fund can-
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah, but most funds have ballooned for lots of reasons.
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And that's actually led to some of the perversity that David talked about. If the funds get large, their tendency to do these things also increases. So yes, a seed fund can drive returns on M&A acquisitions that might be deterred in a bad, hostile administration. But a venture fund of $500 million to $2 billion drive returns through M&A? No. No.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I've been lobbying officials for a long time on this crusade. They come in and they expect that, oh, you know, M&A, blah, blah, blah, blah. And I'm like, no, no, no, I could care less. Only my most mediocre companies are acquired.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, Sheen's going to have some real problems in the new administration.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
So KV is much more an input-driven organization. Founders Fund is much more output-driven. And there's great technology companies that are input-driven. Think Amazon, Apple. And there's great technology companies that are output-driven. So you can choose, but certain people are going to be better in some environments and other people are going to thrive in other environments.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, I think, first of all, the Treasury Secretary understands this. I think Scott actually, from everybody I've talked to, I don't know him, but I've interviewed about 10 or 12 people that are very successful on Wall Street, and every single one of them universally has a claim for him. And they've all made points to me that these kind of subtleties, he really does grok.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And so when he says you can raise tariffs without inflation, he understands how all this substitution works and is running an equation in his brain. He's a very successful trader, and that's a really good skill. Also, Chamath's earlier points about Darwinistic evolution of brilliant people being successful, understanding how the economy actually works, he's perfect.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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So I think you're going to see real tariffs, especially against China, And the Trump administration is completely committed to reducing inflation, the cost of eggs and groceries. And I think those things can be reconciled. I know amateur economists with random degrees from Wharton don't think so. But as Trump pointed out in the debate and J.D.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Vance pointed out with some research, his first administration imposed all these tariffs and there was no inflation. And then J.D. Vance pointed out that the Fed Reserve has a study that says, you know, housing prices, which are a primary driver of affordability for a normal American, are inflated because of illegal immigration. So I think this administration... And not making more units, I mean.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, I think this administration... There is substitution, right? If the price of one gig goes up, consumers typically have, you know, like people on this podcast, typically have a limited budget. And at the end of the day, if one price goes up, you have to substitute somewhere else. So the net deflation might be negative even. So in any event, this administration is not naive.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And the people that Trump has put in place to drive this in Treasury, the National Economic Council absolutely understand this. And they're committed to driving down actual prices. The hardest area is going to be health care. That is really, really difficult. And it is difficult. a major driver of costs to a normal person. And Obamacare has been a disaster.
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The question is, what do you do about that? And I don't have an answer for you right away. I have some ideas.
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I fit in really, really well at KV.
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Well, A, I'm very good at it. I think I prefer to invest as early as possible on a keynote deck only. If I meet a founder and there's a keynote deck, there's no product, there's no metrics, that's my sweet spot. Because I also know nobody else in venture is good at that. Nobody else is still active in venture.
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It comes down to founder assessment. At the end of the day, the only data point is, is this founder capable of building an iconic company, period? And I prefer to compete when there's no metrics because all the metrics you're going to do is confuse you. That said, there's a lot of investors who are very good once there's product metrics, financial metrics.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Well, short version on crypto generally is I still think the primary use case is speculation. And not that there's anything wrong with that. People speculate on stocks, retail, trading. People speculate on football games, gambling. Like the natural tendency for humans to want to speculate is very real.
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The art to me is because everybody's now a node connected into these crypto, let's call Bitcoin, you know, Can you build an application on top that would have too much inertia, too much friction to start from scratch, but it has real value? And I think it's possible because so many people are now connected based upon speculation initially. So that's what's exciting to me. But, you know,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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We've watched speculation before in crypto markets and it's very volatile. So hopefully someone builds real layers of productivity or utility on top, but takes advantage of the network.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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It's a little bit like back in your days at Facebook, Chamath, you had the social graph and you'd say, you can build applications on top of the social graph, but if you had to create a social graph from scratch, that was a heroic effort and nobody else was going to do it. That was like literally the Facebook monopoly story. And so I think that's true of crypto. There's lots of nodes.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Someone's got a sociographic net.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Someone's got to build the application on top. And then it'd be extremely exciting.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And so I can compete with people who are pretty good at what they do. So I'd prefer to go as early as possible. And then secondly, I like company building. I think part of my role is to help the founder increase the amplitude or probability of success. And I enjoy that. At FF, that's very controversial.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
40 to 42, like measured by eight sleep, typical day.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Ooh.
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Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Well, we'll see. I don't know if I would have made that trade, honestly, but it's complicated. For Carl Anthony Towns? Really? Yeah. Fascinating. He's playing so good. I know, but I think he had the chemistry all dialed in. Hopefully they can build back better. Build back better, absolutely.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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He's got to compete with our friend, Kenny Howery.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
Hopefully some great destination, I'm sure.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
No. I love politics. If you follow my Twitter feed, I pay a lot of attention. I used to be involved in politics before I got into tech. However, what I realized about where I am in my career in tech is if I stop doing what I do, I'm never going to come back. Like technology is rapidly emerging. We're going to talk about all the latest developments this week.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Like you can't take your foot off the gas in the network building parts of venture for two to five years and come back when you're like 50 years old. And so I felt like I'm not ready to give up on venture. I'm in like the prime of my venture career. I'm only 12 years in actually Chamath. So figure five, 10 more years like is the sweet spot.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And so I'd like to see the companies that I was involved in grow up, become public companies, et cetera. And I didn't feel like I could ever come back if I quit. At some point, would I like to get involved in politics? Probably yes, but it's a decade out.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah, it's extremely exciting for him, obviously for the country, I think. which is he's going to be the chief economic officer really for the country. His job is to build foreign policy from the business standpoint, which if you think about it, what's the foundation of power in the world? It's economic success. Why did the United States win World War II?
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Because we had an economic engine that could out-compete Germany plus Russia plus Japan. We could build more tanks, blah, blah, blah, blah, etc., And so the economic engine is critical to this administration. Obviously, Trump understands that. We had a great three years under his first administration, as he likes to say, best economy ever before COVID, which may be true.
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And we need to rebuild American strength. And Jacob's job is to export that philosophy. And sometimes you can build economic strength through working through foreign affairs. And so that's his main job is to be the primary point person, undersecretary of economics. of economic affairs, and then they've got a bunch ... The Democrats and the woke people added a bunch of other things to the title.
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It used to be just Undersecretary of State for Economic Affairs, and they added environment and all these politically correct things, so hopefully they'll subtract all that stuff and just go back to Undersecretary of State for Economic Affairs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think it's very obvious watching from afar that the way Trump makes decisions is he likes to ask a lot of people a lot of different questions, and then he makes the decision. That's why he's, to some people, the media...
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enemies very unpredictable is he doesn't just take one source of input and so you can never totally predict the output but he arrays an interesting cast of characters and listens to them like so for example i haven't spent that much time with him but insofar as i have he would go around the room and ask every single person a dinner what's your view on x and literally go around a room of 28 people and listen to every single person so i think that's how he makes decisions