Katy Balls
Appearances
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
Yeah, yeah, yeah. But yeah, I think if they were to do that, you can quite quickly see all the parties to the left or going for the centre ground would start to say, look at them, we wouldn't do that. And obviously, the beauty in a way of being in opposition or not being anywhere near having to make the decisions of government means you can throw those points a bit more easily.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
I think more likely than not. But I wouldn't bet a huge amount of money on it. Not that we do betting in politics since the general election. It didn't go that well for some people. Ultimately, there is a precedent and there is a long history in the Tory party, which I think is almost a bit too Labour, this idea, you know, the most ruthless party around.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
But while Labour kind of let their leaders struggle on for longer when they're not doing very well in the polls, The Tories tend to move more quickly. You look at a few of the factors. No candidate in the final parliamentary stage had more than a third of the party supporting them. Kemi Badenoch, Robert Jenrick or James Cleverley. That's quite low.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
You'd hope one would have at least half the support. And I think the last time that happened, the closest example is Ian Duncan Smith in 2001. And he was forced out before he got to an election. And they've already changed the rules before Kemi Badenoch started on the 1922 committee, which is the shop steward Tory backbencher group. to raise the threshold for no confidence letters.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
So it's now a third of MPs. Because, of course, what we saw for the past couple of years was just journalists constantly tweeting saying, I hear a letter might have gone in. Is there going to be a vote?
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
Exactly. What would we tweet about all day? No, so I think... So the apparatus is in place to try and help her get to the next election. And I think right now, you know, well, you would expect this, you know, we're about three or four days in. There's not currently an appetite for regicide, but it would be quite worrying if there was this early on. So there is a path.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
The risk is that she proves too divisive to her party, doesn't make enough friends. And, you know, after some tricky local elections next year, runs on a bit. And then they say, why don't we look to someone like James Cleverley on the back benches?
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
I think there is an effort to try and make this a unity shadow cabinet. And you can see that in some of the appointments. I think Kemi Badenoch's bluntness is both almost her biggest strength and her biggest weakness. It wins plenty of admirers who think it shows she's authentic and that's what the Tory party has been missing.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
in a world when you're up against these really big personalities in some cases, perhaps not the current prime minister. I'm like, who have we been talking about? But they're very worried about Nigel Farage, who's often seen as this authentic, straight-talking politician by his supporters.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
So I think in that shadow cabinet, those really two senior roles, obviously a shadow chancellor and shadow foreign secretary, going to not just where they are in the party, but they both also went for the leadership. So, you know, reaching out in that sense. And interestingly, because obviously a lot is written about, you know, she is moving the party to the right.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
Speaking to figures around the shadow cabinet table in the party, actually the bigger complaint is there's not enough figures from the right in the shadow cabinet. Right, yeah, yeah. Because you, Priti Patel, for sure, but you look for it. You know, Robert Jenrick, who was her main rival, he has been given a job, but it's not the most senior job, the shadow justice secretary.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
But then they put in some of Robert Jenrick's backers, only two, Victoria Atkins and Ed Arger. All you need to really know about them is they are slightly more from the one nation wing of the party. So when Robert Jenrick was trying to say, my campaign is not just the old Tory right, he would say, look at Victoria Atkins and Ed Arger.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
So while we're now saying Team Jenrick have places around the shadow cabinet table, lots of figures on the right saying, well, they were just the people to make us look more like we were. So one of the complaints is, you know, where are some of those figures there? But generally speaking...
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
I think they've balanced it to a point that you can say every faction, every group is represented and there's some younger talent and there's also those with more experience.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
I mean, I think she ultimately needs to pick the right fights. And in the past, Kemi Badenoch has picked,
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
various fights she will often say that you know she's in a position where she has to respond to things it's the right thing to do but picking a fight like for example maternity leave maternity leave or indeed confessing to having hacked Harriet Harman's website those are not necessarily fights you needed to pick yeah and I think I mean I think on maternity pay that was one where almost you knew she hadn't meant to pick it because she very quickly said that wasn't what she meant and she is the type of politician that
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
If she did believe it, her team might say, oh, you have to speak it down. She'd say, no, I believe it. So I think that was perhaps a misspeak. But generally speaking, she has picked lots of fights for parts of the left, but she's also picked fights with the European Research Group.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
She's really put the noses out of joint of a lot of old Tory Brexiteers when she was saying, I'm not an arsonist, I'm a conservative, because they were pushing for some EU regulation rules more quickly than she wanted to do. So I think she needs to really try and go for fights against Nigel Farage and Keir Starmer.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
It's hard to know. I think that you had in Robert Jenrick and Kemi Baden two quite different strategies because Robert Jenrick was almost just matching the reform migration policy, saying we want to leave the ECHR and the Convention of Human Rights and also being much tougher on legal migration. Kemi Badenoch has not gone that far.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
But I think her argument is authenticity is how you match Nigel Farage and she's got that in spades. So that will work. The Reform Party are saying that since she's taken over the party, they're getting a lot of new members and they think that actually Tory members or Tory voters are moving to them because they don't like Kemi Badenoch. It's
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
Really, not to be unhelpful on this podcast, way too early to tell. Yeah, right. But I think some of the things she says, such as, you know, women's only spaces. Nigel Farage loves to speak at reform rallies saying, what is a woman railing against Keir Starmer? That's something that Kemi Badenoch will be doing too.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
But I think there's a question on immigration, other areas and how she matches Farage. And moving all the way to reform means you also will lose some votes the other way. So all Tory leaders try and find this almost third way. But I think, you know, even looking around that shadow cabinet table, it is quite one nation in some ways.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
That is not, to me, a shadow cabinet team that's going to want to go all the way to reform on their policy positions. And actually, she's going to be trying to create a space for the Conservatives and seeing if that works or not.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
I think it's hard to know how substantial or how many voters there are like that, if that makes sense, because obviously Reform had loads of problems with vetting candidates and those comments and then also their own suspensions on it. And I think that probably the counter to that is she did win the Tory membership vote pretty confidently.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
It was probably around the same as Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak. If the membership had such an issue on that, would it have been closer? Would she not made it? If that makes sense. So these things can be factors. I think the question is, is it something which is a substantial thing that's going to impact votes? Perhaps Reform Party will pick up some votes.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
But it's not something where I think we have enough evidence yet.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
Well, I think on the Donald Trump one, it's hard to know because obviously as a country, British voters are much more hostile to Donald Trump than American voters, as we've just seen in the election, but also just on polling. And the Conservative Party, you know, the Labour are a sister party to the Democrats.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
But in the Tory party, there are plenty of Tories who said they would vote Democrat if they could and were backing Kamala Harris. And I think that's also reflected in some Tory members and Tory voters. So it's not a clear cut. All the Tories like Donald Trump is definitely more nuanced. And therefore, Nigel Farage could pick up some votes.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
But if Donald Trump does some things that, you know, lead to a real backlash, whether it is a trade war, whether it's foreign policy decisions that have huge effects, such as Ukraine, for example, that's something where support for Ukraine and Britain is very strong, more so than lots of European countries.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
if it looks as though Donald Trump sold Ukraine down the river and then you have Nigel Farage close to Trump. So I think, yes, you can look influential, but I don't think it's a clear net win, you know, at this point.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
Thanks for having me.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
Bye.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
Thank you for having me.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
Well, the slight problem of all these watch parties is they start quite early in the evening. So this starts around 9.10. So by the time you actually get to any serious results, either most people have gone home or the people who are there perhaps aren't in the quiet state of coherent thought.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
Is that from sleep deprivation or alcohol? Some hydration of sorts, maybe not water. Okay.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
Yeah, yeah.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
Exactly. And then I think when it all started to become clear, it was more around, you know, 3am onwards, by which point I was actually watching it from the safety of my sofa.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
I suppose it's almost deja vu if we go back to the last time Donald Trump won. And I think, again, it's one of those ones where there are obviously so many different polling predictions. But once again, it feels as though no one really got it right, punned or pollster.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
This time's meant to be Donald Trump learning from past mistakes where he does not think he was effective enough. And this is now the Donald Trump 2.0, where he does the things that perhaps some on the inside he feels stopped him doing before. So if it goes to plan for Donald Trump, this is the purest form of Trumpism yet.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
Well, I think they've tried to be ready. And I think the official line, which you heard from Keir Starmer at Prime Minister's Questions and also in a tweet prior to that is, you know, the government will work with whoever is in the White House, the special relationship, security and so forth. And they've done all this work with David Lammy and J.D. Vance, as you mentioned, and other Republicans.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
So they have lines of communication and everything is going to be OK. However, I think you just can't get away from the fact that this is awkward for the Labour Party. And also, even if you took aside party politics, Theresa May and Boris Johnson as prime ministers both had to deal with Donald Trump and they both found it very difficult. Yeah.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
And while Theresa May, I think, had quite a tricky relationship with Donald Trump. Yes, he wanted to hold her hand at one point, but I don't think there was mutual respect. I think you can say the Boris Johnson relationship, at least Donald Trump has some affection for Boris Johnson. It didn't make things much easier when you speak to figures in number 10 at the time.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
So you have the unpredictability of Donald Trump, which was always going to be a challenge, whichever party is in 10 Downing Street. And then adding to that, it is just in several ways more difficult for a Labour government because of the past comments of the foreign secretary.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
Now, David Lammy and Keir Starmer did obviously share dinner with Donald Trump, but we also saw the Trump campaign describing the Labour government as far left. Yeah. over volunteers going out there to help. You have the comments from J.D. Vance and you also have Elon Musk, who clearly is someone who is quite close to Donald Trump these days.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
He was in his own Twitter spat or expat, that's what you probably should call it, with Keir Starmer. And I think the tension too between, you know, since that result has come out, you have had Sadiq Khan, Emily Thornberry, other Labour politicians really be quite critical of Donald Trump. And every time Keir Starmer tries to cosy up to Donald Trump, his party will be upset.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
But if he sticks with his party, Donald Trump will be upset. So there's a real tension at the heart of it.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
I think there's a decent chance of it. As ever, the slight question is how much of what Donald Trump says is what he plans to actually do. But if you do get a tariff whacked up on China, but also a 10% general tariff, which is what Donald Trump has been talking about, There's been forecasts out saying what that would do to UK growth.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
I think it makes Rachel Reeves' budget from... Well, it's entirely based on growth. A lot harder to do. And the growth forecasts weren't looking good anyway. Also, the cost of borrowing has already been going up. And some Labour aides were saying it's not actually the budget you're pinning it on the budget, it worries about the US election and what might happen. Well, it has happened now.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
And I think that that means that you could see costs keep going up. And therefore, I think partly it's trade policy, but also general borrowing and the decisions the Labour government have made, I think could be quite tricky if... Donald Trump does half the things he said he's going to do on the economy.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
Well, I think the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party will try and jump on anything that looks like cosying up to Donald Trump or, for example... Will Kirsten Armour and David Lammy offered Donald Trump a state visit. It was David Lammy who led a protest against the last state visit. And of course... I was there.
Pod Save the UK
Trump wins: where the hell do we go from here? w/ Katy Balls + Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP
So did you hear David Lammy? Did you watch him in real time?