Jonathan Beale
Appearances
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
So he's essentially giving credit where you could debate credit is not due. I think it is important, though, that what Mark Rutter is doing is also what, to some extent, President Zelensky is doing.
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
Ukraine here knows that things could change dramatically under a Donald Trump presidency, that they could have some of their military aid withdrawn, if not all of it, that there could be peace negotiations or attempts at peace negotiations. And they want to see Donald Trump as a winner, too. And part of their calculus is the same as Mark Ritter's calculus. that you appeal to Donald Trump's ego.
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
You tell him that it is his strength that can resolve this crisis and it is making Ukraine strong and keeping it strong that will help resolve this crisis. You want to tell him that he is in a position of power where he can decide the future. And if he wants to win, really win, then that means taking on Vladimir Putin and not allowing him to win this war.
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
Well, he's not alone in talking about the dangers of this conflict widening to other European countries. We've heard similar from Boris Pistorius, the German defence minister.
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
We've heard senior British military commanders, senior NATO commanders as well, warning that Russia does not see the end of its goals in defeating Ukraine, which it clearly wants to do and which is swallowing up all its resources permanently. and finances and time at the moment. But that will not be the end of it, is the warning.
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
So I don't think you should see what Mark Rutter is saying in isolation, because many other people are saying it. And I think that they're saying it, and it's particularly senior military officers saying it, because they know that most European countries are ill-prepared for a conflict, that they have through the peace dividend after the end of the Cold War, reduced the size of their militaries.
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
They have reduced the output of their weapons factories. So I don't think we should think of what Margaret is saying is scaremongering, because he's not alone in saying this. But as you say, there is a disconnect, which he wants to highlight between what European populations feel and what governments are doing.
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
You have to look at Donald Trump's rhetoric, then compare it with the reality. And I think if we look at last time, there was rhetoric about pulling out of NATO from Donald Trump, but it didn't happen. And I think Europeans hope that will be the case in a second Donald Trump term. I think it's important to say that even if Donald Trump did want
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
for america to leave nato if he did follow through on some of the things he said it would be very difficult for him to do it for the simple reason that last year congress passed legislation which essentially says no president can suspend terminate denounce or withdraw from nato without either an act of congress or the approval of two-thirds of the u.s senate i mean interestingly that's
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
legislation was passed with the backing of Senator Marco Rubio, who is, of course, Donald Trump's choice as the next Secretary of State.
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
Europe couldn't go it alone in terms of defence, not least because it doesn't have the nuclear umbrella. Only the UK would be providing a nuclear umbrella for NATO if the US pulled out. I think that's unlikely, as you say. It couldn't do it alone in terms of providing Ukraine with the weapons they need.
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
The US is still by far the largest provider of ammunition and weapons to Ukraine and the weapons they need and even the ones that Europe provides originate from the US. So they have to get US supplies approval. And Europe doesn't have its own capabilities that the US has. For example, in space, it doesn't have air defences, missile defences like the US has.
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
It does not have the size of military that the US has. A lot of European countries, as I mentioned, have cut the size of their military because they are expensive. They're now looking at increasing numbers, talking about conscription, but they cannot fill the numbers, the money, the finance, the technical know-how, and the nuclear umbrella that the US provides.
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
So Europe can talk about improving its situation, addressing some of those capability gaps, but it'll take them a long time to do that. It doesn't happen overnight.
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
Thank you, Katya. Good speaking to you.
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
Hi, Katia, from a cold, a very cold Dnipro here in eastern Ukraine.
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
Well, Ukraine is watching closely. It's watching closely because all its weapons, pretty much all the ammunition it's getting at the moment is coming from NATO members in Europe and also the US, obviously, which is its biggest supplier. It's also watching closely because Ukraine has made very clear it wants to be a member of NATO. It wants the security guarantees that NATO membership gives.
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
So it's watching what Mark Ritter, NATO Secretary General, is saying very closely. And it's still hoping that somehow it will be eventually a member of NATO.
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
Born after the Second World War. It is always important to say that NATO is a defensive alliance. That's what it says it is. But it was created because of the concerns of the expanding Soviet empire. It is there to deter any aggressor. And of course, key to the whole NATO membership is Article 5, which essentially says that
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
an attack on one ally or an attack on one member is interpreted as an attack on all. So it gives those countries that are members of the alliance some security guarantees, the kind of security guarantees, obviously, that Ukraine would like as well.
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
The US is one of the largest contributors, about 15% of the NATO budget, but it is the military clout of America that counts for NATO in the sense that the US is the largest military in the world. It is the country that spends most on defence. And it provides, most importantly for NATO, the security of that nuclear umbrella. Members of NATO rely mainly on the US.
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
Of course, the UK has nuclear weapons too. France does, but very much sees theirs as independent to the NATO alliance. But it relies on America for that security guarantee. So without America, NATO would be a shadow of what it is at the moment. At any one given time, there are between 50,000 to 100,000 U.S. military personnel stationed in Europe.
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
Of course, aircraft carriers come from time to time. But then on top of that, there is a commitment for 800,000 U.S. military personnel to come to NATO's defense if required.
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
No. So NATO has tried to coordinate and is coordinating some of that military support. But NATO itself as an organization does not have arms factories, does not produce weapons. And it is reliant on member states to actually contribute to Ukraine directly. And it's always worth remembering that not every NATO member is providing weapons.
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
So, for example, Hungary, which has always been an awkward member, is against supplying weapons to Ukraine. But Ukraine depends wholly on NATO allies to keep that ammunition flowing, to keep those weapons flowing.
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
There may be some sympathy with President Putin's argument about NATO expanding on his border. The first George Bush presidency, there's a suggestion Russia received private assurances that NATO wouldn't expand eastwards to include countries like the Baltic states. That is something that's disputed.
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
But it is important for NATO to always stress that it is a defensive alliance and it is responding to what he is doing in Ukraine. You know, there were countries outside the NATO alliance, and I'm talking about Sweden and Finland, who have now joined specifically because They feel that Russia's war in Ukraine puts them under threat. So that is their argument.
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
And they do not buy this argument that President Putin should be dictating the terms as to which countries can join. That is something they say, that individual countries should be allowed, sovereign nations be allowed to decide for themselves.
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
There's certain questions as to why NATO hasn't done more here in Ukraine. For example, one of the early cries was NATO close the skies. Do not let Russia fire missiles or operate jets over Ukrainian airspace. Why doesn't NATO just come in and provide air cover for Ukraine? That has not happened and that will not happen. You've got to remember that NATO is an alliance that works on consensus.
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
So if one country objects to something, then they can't do it. And that is, in a sense, NATO's weakness, that it is reliant on all members agreeing to do something to help another nation. Any attempts at Ukrainian membership... could be vetoed by one country or a few countries.
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
And that is why I think it's highly unlikely that NATO will accept Ukraine as a member of the alliance anytime soon, because there are, you know, significant countries, including the US under Donald Trump, which would not countenance the idea of Ukraine joining NATO.
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
So I think there are certain things that alarm European countries from Donald Trump that he said on the campaign trail, as you said, that if you don't pay your way, you don't get protection. Russia can do what the hell it likes to those countries that don't pay their way. There's a misunderstanding as far as Donald Trump is concerned about what NATO is.
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
He thinks it's like a club and you pay a membership fee. NATO is not that. It sets goals as to how much they should spend on defence, but there is no punishment for If a country doesn't spend that on defence, and as we know, there are countries in the NATO alliance who do not spend 2%, the goal it set out in 2014, on their military.
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
I think it's important to say also that Donald Trump is not the first president. when he was president in 2018, who have criticized Netanyahu for essentially just relying on the U.S., freeloading on the U.S. for their own defenses.
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
And that was particularly true after the Cold War, that countries stopped spending much on defense, reduced the size of their military capabilities and their militaries. That is slowly changing, but it's been a constant refrain from the U.S. that they are paying for Europe's security.
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
Yeah, it took essentially 10 years for the Netherlands when Mark Ritter was the prime minister of the Netherlands to reach that 2% target. Even he admits that it took them too long now. And to some, it does seem a bit rich for him to preach this message of spend more on defence when he was so slow to do it himself. But I think Mark Rutter does have a number of things going his way.
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
And that is, as you say, a personal relationship with Donald Trump. So when Donald Trump was criticizing European countries in 2018, not spending enough on defense, he wasn't pointing the finger at Mark Rutter, even though he had every right to. He's pointing the finger mostly Germany.
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
And Mark Rutter was very careful when he was the prime minister of the Netherlands to give credit to Donald Trump for forcing countries to spend more on defense of that 2018 NATO summit. And that has played dividends in terms of his personal relationship with Donald Trump. He's already gone as NATO's secretary general to have a private meeting with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago.
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
So, you know, there is some investment in their personal relationships.
Global News Podcast
The Global Story: Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
Well, I think you're absolutely right to point out that Mark Ritter is playing essentially to Donald Trump's ego and he has given him the credit for forcing European countries to increase defence spending when the reality probably is that that European countries suddenly increased defence spending, most of them, after Russia's full-scale invasion.