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J. Cal

Appearances

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

0.409

Jason, do you want to go up to the bedroom, knock on the door, and wake Chamath up? Where is he? You're in his house. Go get him. Let's go.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

104.97

We do have a delicious ice wine for you.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

1104.704

J. Cal, do you think either party or either candidate in this presidential election is going to drive a different outcome in terms of federal spending and the long-term impact on deficit and as a result, rates?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

1315.831

Well, it does depend also on how levered they are. So just to give you guys a sense, total U.S. household, corporate, and government debt, which includes state and local and federal. So household debt in the U.S. is about $18 trillion. Corporate debt is about $11 trillion. State and local government debt is $3 trillion. Obviously, the federal debt is $36 trillion.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

1333.697

That adds up to a whopping $68 trillion of total debt across the U.S., which if you assume a 6% average interest rate, you got corporate debt and household debt, so it's a little more risky, so it carries a higher rate. That means we're spending about $4 trillion a year of an economy that's only 29 trillion a year to service the debt, just to pay the interest on the debt.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

1358.002

So 15% of every dollar that trades hands is going towards interest payments on existing leverage, on existing debt. It's a highly leveraged system. And if you look around the world, this problem is not just a US challenge. Global leverage is a problem that's now becoming a crisis for countries everywhere. The UK is waiting on a big budget proposal this week.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

1377.615

Higher taxes is what's going to be in there to make up for a budget deficit, which is currently 4.4%. of GDP. The UK economy is only growing at 0.9% a year. France has a major budget crisis underway right now. They're struggling to reduce their deficit from 6% down to 5% of GDP. And they've got skyrocketing bankruptcies. 74% of people that can work in that country are working.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

1400.755

And that's because of large social programs that support the balance, 7.3% technical unemployment. And they're raising taxes on 440 firms, 440 companies in the country that make a billion or more in revenue with a, quote, temporary tax. There's a 4% surcharge on income over 500K that's going into effect, second home real estate taxes, and so on.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

1421.792

France is struggling to figure out a way to generate revenue to make up for the shortfall. In Brazil, there's a major budget crisis. States owe $130 billion to the federal government there. Inflation is accelerating at 4.6%. Rates are gonna go higher and longer, complicating other economic growth opportunities in the country.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

1439.023

So this is becoming kind of a global leverage problem, which might explain the flight to safety in assets like gold and Bitcoin, and is gonna present a lot of real struggles for every global economy Now, the question is, does the US dollar maintain its reserve status? Because ultimately, I think it is inevitable that the Federal Reserve in the United States is going to need to buy the debt.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

1463.531

They're going to need to monetize the debt, which means printing money. There is no one else to buy the debt. So pull up the China chart, Nick. China's historically been the biggest buyer and owner of US treasuries. But here's what's happened in the last couple of years. It peaked at about $1.3 trillion about 10 years ago.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

1478.785

And then recently, particularly starting around COVID, they began selling down and have been selling down at an accelerated pace. Today, China is back to the level they were at nearly 15 years ago in terms of their treasury holdings. And they have publicly declared that they are selling off US treasuries and buying gold instead.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

1497.815

So the biggest buyer of US treasuries has kind of left the market or is leaving the market. Who does that leave? Well, at the end of the day, the Federal Reserve has been the kind of buyer of last resort. And if they end up buying treasuries, that's where we have a problem with too many dollars and inflation kicking up.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

1515.063

And so it feels like a lot of the trades in assets are what's going to benefit from the inflation. And it's going to be gold. It's going to be Bitcoin. And in some cases, because you're pumping more money in the system, it's going to be equities. And that might explain why equities are moving up as well. Where do you guys invest here?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

1534.404

I mean, Chamath, like, do you care about how the market's positioned or how you're positioned in this election right now? And based on how we're seeing markets trade and what these kind of macro indicators are telling us, are you just business as usual, heads down, invest and build as you always have?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

1624.482

Are you the same place, Sax? J. Cal, are you guys trading at all?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

1637.071

I mean, that's the key question, right? Like, do you change what assets you own?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

164.404

How did you sleep last night?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

182.815

Put your silverware away, Sax. Hide the Aesop soap from the bathroom. I'm hoping he doesn't have Aesop. I'm hoping he has something else.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

1916.101

Well, the majority now of young people, the number I believe, and Nick, if you could pull this up, 57% of Gen Zers want to be influencers as their primary career now. That the idea of working a job is almost like a secondary option, the primary option that everyone would strive for. is to be an influencer. And this number has grown considerably, continues to grow.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

1945.581

And in fact, if you look at the rest of this report, this was out of a morning consult.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

1978.655

Sax, as a successful influencer, how would you advise the youth on their career choices?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

1994.335

Pro athlete, yeah. Pro athlete, yeah.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

201.886

Sax, how do you prepare for J-Cal coming over to your house to visit and spend the night? I mean, what do you do to get ready for this?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2045.575

There's this temptation to go and spend all this time making content and pursue that as your career, and that's a life opportunity for you now. It's more free and open, they would think, than perhaps being a movie star or a basketball player used to be.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2308.598

To wrap up the conversation about where markets are headed, Sax, I think we were going to just do a quick round the horn. Anything that you've repositioned in your portfolio around investing or asset classes that you shift as we face kind of looming budget crises, the election cycle?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

244.03

Okay, well, so that is the announcement to start the show. Jason, taking a week off for moderating. Yes. Gonna be a bestie guestie, gonna be a participant on the panel this week as we kick this off. So I'll be moderating this week. We're gonna do a couple housekeeping points. First off, Very excited to announce that we are doing another live event after the success of the summit during September.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2466.547

Well, I would just argue one thing, which is, except in the scenario where you believe the only inevitable path is for the central banks to monetize the debt, meaning the central banks step in to buy the outstanding treasuries that need to be issued, which both supports inflation, but also introduces capital into the system.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2485.371

And that's where both equities, that's where you could see a scenario where equities and gold go up while fixed income goes down to have higher rates. So it's effectively a money printing indicator or signal. Now, my personal position on this going into this new era, if it manifests as the markets are telling us it will, is kind of where Paul Tudor Jones is.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2506.438

I think that commodities have, and you know, gold is a commodity. Everyone talks about it as being the safe haven asset, but there are other commodities out there that are much more fungible and used in production cycles to make food, to make energy. to make goods.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2522.044

And commodity-linked businesses, meaning businesses whose revenue or profit grows with the underlying commodity price growing, will outperform other businesses. They're going to struggle to raise prices or struggle to pay higher labor costs or struggle to deal with higher COGS, whereas commodity-linked businesses that effectively just make a margin on the commodity- Well, it's an example.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2542.253

A mining business. So businesses that do mining of natural resources, businesses that trade agricultural commodities. So those businesses usually make kind of a fixed margin on the underlying commodity price. And they do well in these cycles. So anyway, I think that Paul Tudor Jones, because if you own a commodity, it's not a productive asset. It's not generating yield for you.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2562.837

But if you own a business that's making a profit and... Just seems like it's easier to own Bitcoin. That's one asset, but Bitcoin isn't a productive asset, right? I mean, so that's one way to kind of build a portfolio. But I personally like owning businesses where they're doing something and making value.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2577.574

And in the process, they earn a profit, especially if the profit grows with an underlying inflationary pressure.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

269.467

We had great content. We had great parties. Everyone had a great time. But a lot of people said they wish they could have been a part of it. So we are going to try and do more live events. So we have pulled one together. Very last minute, but we are going to make it incredible. Saturday, December 7th.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2812.598

So now that's normalized. That's normalized.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

284.244

In San Francisco, around 5 p.m., we are gonna do the All In Holiday Spectacular at the Palace of Fine Arts in San Francisco. It's gonna be incredible. Tickets are going on sale today at allin.com slash events. Not gonna wanna miss it. There's gonna be a really fun show on stage with us and some guests. followed by open bar, food trucks, DJ, casino party.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2946.988

I think this is what the market is saying is that regardless of who gets elected here, they've both kind of shown that the deficit will increase, not decrease under their presidency. And look, maybe that is positioning to get elected. And maybe there is a kind of more rational underlying economic advisory group that is counseling a different path than what they are presenting. And I hope...

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2970.066

to whoever is listening that that is the case for both candidates, very deeply hope. If you look at what happened in Argentina, so we've talked a lot about Javier Millet, he came in as president and his austerity measures by absolutely slashing government spending has reduced monthly inflation from 25% to around, you know, three and a half percent.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

2992.503

So he's really kind of brought inflation under control. But the consequence of that is that the economy has now shrunk because the government is spending less. That means there's less revenue for certain businesses. There's less income for individuals. So they spend less. So the economy has shrunk by 1.7% in the last quarter and unemployment has spiked.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3011.25

So now unemployment is at 8% in Argentina and it's rising fast. So for the US to actually execute this policy, when we have a fundamental mandate for the federal reserve to keep unemployment low, means that something is going to have to break. You can't keep unemployment low and inflation low if federal spending gets too high and federal debt gets too high.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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So we are in a condition now where federal debt is too high. And if we cut federal spending too fast, we end up seeing unemployment spike. And if we don't, we're going to have inflation spike. Those are the two paths we could walk.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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It should be a really great time, a real fun winter wonderland after party, after the stage show. And so we're really excited to have folks come and join us at the Palace of Fine Arts on December 7th. It's gonna be awesome. You guys excited? Yeah.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3229.713

Best point I've heard in a long time. That's a great point, Sax. Give us the election update. What's going on? Are we going to get your guy in office? Is it going to be Vice President Harris? What's the sense of what the polls are telling you? of what the markets are telling us. What's your read on where we're at?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3341.351

Yeah. And the essay that Nate Silver wrote that was published by the New York Times yesterday said, it's a 50-50 toss-up. Either candidate could win, but my gut tells me it's going to be Trump. He's kind of indicated that's where, you know, as a guy who's obviously been a big prognosticator, it says the market's headed. J. Cal, do you think Sachs is right on this? Anything you're picking up on?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

341.108

This is literally a two-minute drive from your house in San Francisco. We are going to load you in a van. J. Cal and his brothers are going to come and grab you, throw you in the back, drag you down there. We're going to prop you up on stage for a couple hours, and then we'll put you back in the van and you can go home.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3422.787

It was reported this morning that a French trader- has bet $45 million on Trump on Polymarket, that he is the whale. He's a French national with quote, extensive trading experience. He's not quote, manipulating the market. He just really is trying to build a big position. So he sounds like he's a pretty active trader that made the big move.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3518.988

I'll tell you guys my kind of view is like things seem to be getting more inflammatory leading up to the election here. It's like we've got 12 days left or whatever it is. And the rhetoric and the tonality of the stuff that's being said is getting so nasty on both sides. And I just worry more about the reconciliation reconstruction phase that needs to happen in America.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3553.35

Like, you know, I think like Trump leaning out the window of McDonald's and it was, I mean, I laughed pretty hard when he was like, someone said to him when they interviewed Trump when he was serving French fries and he said something like, I've now worked in McDonald's 15 minutes longer than Kamala has. And then one of the reporters said, well, why do you think she would lie about that?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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And he leans out the window. He said, because she's lying Kamala. And, you know, it's a funny joke. That's his quip. He makes fun of everyone. But I think the whole thing about making fun of everyone, it's such a different tone and a different rhetoric than I think what's going to be needed.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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Because imagine if she wins and, you know, he's painted her as being, you know, a liar and crooked and deep state.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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She said it's democracy's on the line. And obviously when you say something like that, when you say that the fundamental system of the electoral process is on the line, it implies that if he wins, we've ended democracy that will inevitably lead people to feel like we are in a place of civil chaos. And I don't think that anyone's going to feel good coming out of this.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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How do you guys think we kind of deal with like the election outcome here, one side or the other. I mean, half the country is going to hate the president and half the country is going to hate where we are and how we sit as a country. And half the country is going to think that democracy is over. I mean, one half is going to feel like this is the end.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3641.707

And is it just a temporary thing and everyone reconciles and we all like get back to work and the election's over and whoever wins, wins?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3694.923

Do you think that the Trump is Hitler rhetoric indicates that the Democrats feel like they're losing this election?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3733.35

Okay. Chamath, do you think we're in a nasty state and we're going to be able to get out of it after the election?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

3863.748

Okay, J. Cal, if you could go back in time and you were Kamala's advisor when she became the nominee, What would you have advised her to do differently than she has done in this campaign to date?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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That's why, because when everyone turned on Biden, yeah, it's like one night when everyone turned on Biden after the debate, all the journalists who had been covering Biden for so long that it was obvious in their face the whole time, they suddenly have to be like, okay, I guess we got to admit now he's not really there.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

4652.845

All right. If the Harris campaign is listening, JCal's advice is out there. You may come on the pod. You're always welcome. Everyone that's running for president is welcome on the pod.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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Apparently, I don't know. Why wouldn't they take it? No, they would take the interview. So Portnoy claims that the Harris campaign reached out and asked to be on two or three of their shows and Barstool declined having her on which is pretty unbelievable.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

4725.553

Okay, got it. You got your line. Let's move on. It's a dead heat.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

4729.946

We got it. Let's go. So we're going to wrap up with... Starbies? What I think is a pretty... Yeah, Starbies. Super interesting topic because it's a real question around traditional shifting to digital. Is that why Starbucks is having challenges? Or is it just maturity? Or is it what happens when a brand that's successful as a luxury brand gets too big? And the kind of...

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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you know, premium experience commoditizes. So as you guys know, we covered the Starbucks CEO, Brian Nickel, joining a few months ago. This was after the prior CEO had been in the office for just 16 months. And there were a lot of problems that were plaguing Starbucks.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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But just this Tuesday, Brian Nicol came on and said that we're suspending guidance for 2025 after reporting preliminary earnings that showed another drop in sales at Starbucks. Same store sales, which is the key metric in the QSR or food and beverage retail business, It tracks what your revenue is year over year. Same source sales declined 7% year over year.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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Earnings per share dropped 25% year over year. So Nichols said, we're getting the bad news out of the way. Now we're going to this back to Starbucks plan, focus on experience, improve the throughput experience and quality, make baristas choose Starbucks as a career. And then he went through a whole plan. He put out a six, seven minute video on this whole thing.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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So clearly customers are frustrated with the Starbucks product, the Starbucks experience, the employees are frustrated working there. And a lot of the system seems to be breaking down. I guess I wanted to kind of talk about what is the core driver and is there a business lesson in all of this? about premium brands or about scale and maturity and markets to be learned from the Starbucks story.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

4837.977

So I don't know if any of you guys have gone through this earnings report or looked at the Nicholas video.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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Do you think that's really true, J. Cal? Because like Nickel came on and he said, we're going back to the core, flat whites, espressos, nice espressos, delicious coffee. But the reality is, in order for them to have grown revenue over the last 20 years, Starbucks has expanded their menu, as Chamath has pointed out, to becoming a seller of sugar.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

4958.292

They've become a seller of milkshakes and flavored beverages and high sugar cocktails, mocktails, that people run into the store to buy two, three times a day. That's how they were able to get the pickup not selling what they started out doing, which was fine Italian roast and espresso, it's now become a very different product and a very different experience.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

4977.805

And so can you really go back to the core and not lose all the customers that I would say aren't looking for a flat white and an espresso, they're looking for a milkshake in the middle of the day.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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Let's watch Nickel's clip and then Chamath, you can give us your take on this. This is a 30-second clip from Nickel's six minutes that he put out on Twitter.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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By the way, this is one of the things that Nichols did at Taco Bell when he was the CEO there. You guys remember the Taco Bell menu? There was always like really interesting hidden things on that menu. He simplified the menu, made it very small, did the same at Chipotle.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

5065.75

He takes this approach of finding the best product, simplifying the experience, simplifying the operations, and giving the customers fewer choices that ultimately leads to faster turnaround, better experience. But the trade-off is you have less variety that people have come to know and love.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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And at Starbucks in particular, where there is just so much variety to choose from now, if your favorite beverage got pulled off the menu, are you going to start to go there less frequently? Chamath, I don't know if you have a take on what's going on at Starbucks and whether it tells you something about the maturity about one of the most iconic consumer brands in America.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

5239.875

So it may be true, but I think that the core objective of any corporation is to maximize shareholder value driven by growing profits over time. So growing profits over time requires increasing your revenue. And there are three levers for doing this. Maximize brand, which is to get more customers. And I don't know if you can get the brand to be any more maximal than Starbucks.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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Maximize coverage, which is how many products can you get those customers to buy, whether it's on a daily basis, weekly basis, or monthly basis. How much of their meals and wallet share are you getting?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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And I don't know how many more times you can get people to go back into a Starbucks each week than they've done with their rewards program, with their digital, with their high throughput tools that they've built over the last decade, and so on. And then finally, maximize price. There's a limit to how much you can charge people

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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When you put those three together, you got more customers, you're selling them more stuff at the highest price possible. At some point, you reach a revenue maximum. That has happened also at Apple. I think that Apple has faced a similar dilemma in the last couple of years, which is how do we get more customers? It's the most recognized brand on earth. You can only buy so many Apple products now.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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You know, they tried to launch the Vision Pro. It didn't go well. Today they announced that they're, this week they announced they're discontinuing production or reducing production on the Vision Pro. and you can only charge so much for these products.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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And I would argue that Starbucks is a victim of the same maximization effect, that at some point you get all the customers, you get them to come in and buy as many products from you as they can, and you charge them the highest price possible, and then you reach this kind of maximum point on the business. And I think Starbucks has just reached that point of maturity.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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So to your point, it doesn't mean that it's a bad business at all. It could be a great business, a nicely profitable business, But the growth ahead of it is limited. It cannot keep growing same-store sales as it has historically because they've maximized all three of those levers. So fewer costs might be a way to drive more profits, more efficient operations.

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Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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I think that's the natural next state for nickel to tackle at this company.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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And then you grow profit by reducing costs and getting more efficient versus trying to add more product to get more customers. Which degrades the experience.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

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Yeah, and so what happens when a company gets to this level of maturity, much like has happened with Apple, is the multiples compress.

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Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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Boys, welcome to the All In Pod. This is episode 201, and we're gonna kick it off by talking about what's going on in markets, which is one of the kind of most interesting, challenging enigmas of the day, or maybe it's not, maybe it's pretty simple. But there seems to be a diversion in assets that is pretty unusual that hasn't been seen in some time.

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All right, troubleshooting part of the All In podcast is over. I really want to say thanks to Saks for participating headily in our Starbucks discussion. Saks, anything you want to say on the maturity of Starbucks or other mature tech businesses or value luxury businesses as they get big? Too big to keep growing. Anything else?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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What do you get? What's your order? Tell us your order. Yeah, what's your order?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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Oh, it's like my order, Sax. Oat milk? That's a great order. What happened to you?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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You should take that sweater that you just took from Chamath and wear that to Mar-a-Lago when you go. It's like a perfect sweater for your Mar-a-Lago visit. Oh, yeah.

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Before you came on Zoom, Chamath, she was actually, she was just sitting on his lap and they were just chatting. And I'm like, what is going on here?

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Amazing. All right, this has been another amazing episode of the All In Pod. As a team player, I have been here to pinch hit for J-Cal. He did not want to moderate this week, so I stepped in to fill the shoes of one of the world. I'll come back next week.

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And a lot of market commentators, analysts, economists are kind of trying to figure out what's going on and why. The first is that bonds are falling. So U.S. Treasury yields as a result of bonds declining in price have spiked up. We nearly hit the 10 year yield dropping as low as 3.5 in September, obviously leading up to the big 50 BIP rate cut.

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Solid job. Solid job. One of this show's greatest moderators. For your sultan of science, for the rain man, for the chairman dictator, and for the world's most absentee moderator... I want to thank you all.

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And as of this morning, we're seeing the 10-year yield over four and a quarter. At the same time, we're seeing gold prices spike. So gold is typically a safe asset. And gold has moved considerably, as you all can see here, from the start of the year, where it was around 2000 an ounce, up to 2750 an ounce, an incredible run up, one of the best performing assets of the year.

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And then finally, in a market like this, you would typically see pain in equities. But we've seen the opposite. The S&P 500 is up considerably, has been on this endless run-up, all-time high. It's closing at all-time high every day.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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And let's pull up Bitcoin.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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Well, there's a lot more assets that have moved into gold than Bitcoin. But here's Bitcoin at today, this morning, 68,000.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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Well, Chamath, give us your read on what's going on.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

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Sorry, just to understand better, why does gold go up in a Trump win?

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"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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Kind of why Common Air is marketing, wouldn't you say, is like to kind of put themselves next to the founder and say, hey, we're the only ones who really care about founders. Everybody else is out to get them.

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And so there is no panacea here. I mean, sometimes the founder's job is to get in the weeds of something that's broken in a company. For sure. And get down to micromanagement. Other times, you want to step back and let the sales team cook because they're crushing it.

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"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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Freeberg, you're back in the founder's seat after a brief sojourn as an investor. Any of this ring true to you or obvious? Did you read the essay? Any thoughts on it, the reaction to it?

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What about Peter Thiel? My guy. Peter Thiel. I haven't interviewed Peter Thiel in a decade. He's amazing.

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It's very different in the place where Paul Graham and I invest, year zero, year one of a company. And Chamath, you alluded to this. In that time period, going from zero to one, from no customers to one customer, it's about really having a team of builders, people who can actually build a product,

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and have what's called product velocity in the industry, the ability to iterate, and then how much time do they spend with customers understanding what those customers' problems are.

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And so what we'll see is when the professional managers try to do that, they try to get a product to market and achieve what's called product market fit, and then eventually maybe get product or get market pull, as Andy Ratcliffe defines it, which is the market is seeking your product out because of word of mouth and because they need it, which Airbnb and Uber would fall into now.

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The difference between those two moments in time and who's good at it is pretty different to your point, Shamath. So to be able to win both those bets is hard. That's like a parlay in a way. Getting the product market fit requires this sort of relentlessness in innovation and trying things. If you have experience in that vertical, it works against you.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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So we were looking at a company today in our firm that has a really good idea. And it's people who are from the industry, but they have an okay idea. It's people from the industry, but they can't get the product built because they're senior managers who have 20 years experience in this particular vertical. you would much rather see neophytes come at the vertical.

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"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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So if you look at the companies mentioned here, Airbnb, Uber, and then SpaceX and Tesla, you just look at those four companies, they had no experience, zero, in space, in travel, in transportation, hospitality, or any of the success they had, or electric cars.

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But to actually scale those companies, that does require a lot of expertise, a lot of tactics, and people who can focus in a way on very narrow things. And that's sometimes founders who are in that first group, they can't... have that focus on but one tiny little thing, they just get bored with it. And so they have to learn to have really great people recruit really great people.

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"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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Number one podcast in the world. Here we go. Okay, guys.

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And actually, yes, delegate to them to run a department and say, Hey, we the goal of this organization, and you saw this Chamath when you were at Facebook, I think you've told me so many stories about, you know, you're focused on one thing, The signup flow, getting people to add that second or third friend, getting them to fill out their profile.

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There were like key moments you determined would equal success. And then Zuckerberg yourself and that early crew were able to obsess over those. So maybe you could talk about Zuckerberg's ride to getting the first, you know, whatever, 10 million people on the product, but then 10 million to a billion.

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Yeah, I think it's well said. There's another good book before we go on to our next subject. Patrick Lanzioni, I'm sure some of you have read The Five Dysfunctions of a Team, but he kind of got into early this sort of ability to be unliked inside of a company.

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And I think I highly recommend the book because it really talks about this sort of fear of conflict and avoidance of accountability and inattention to results, which is kind of the underpinnings of, I think, what Paul was getting to with founder mode. Okay, great discussion, everybody. Speaking of founder mode, I mean, this story keeps coming back. Ryan Breslow is back in the news.

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We talked about this company before. Breslow is the founder of a company called Bolt. That's a payment startup. And I have to set the story up in a couple of acts here. Saxon and I have been following it for a while. Bolt was a payment startup. They did one-click checkout products. If you don't know the one-click,

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Amazon had a patent for this for a while it came out of it came out of patent protection, everybody sort of jumped on it, their shop pay by Shopify, you probably have experience, you buy something at one store, and then you log into another store with your phone number, it has all your credentials, you've been cookied.

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And that basically takes out the friction, and allows you to make a purchase at another vendor without having to put in all your credentials and credit card and everything. So Bolt makes that through an API for different shops online. They generated $27 million in revenue on a $300 million loss last year. They get 2% to 3% commission when they sell something.

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Anyway, we talked about Bolt back in January 2022 because they had raised at an extraordinary valuation, $355 million at an $11 billion valuation, 366 times revenue sacks. I guess we missed those. Then Breslow made waves on Twitter by calling Stripe and YC the mob bosses of Silicon Valley. He alleged they were kind of acting in cahoots to keep people from using Bolt.

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And he claimed YC was skewering rankings on Hacker News, all this other stuff. Anyway. It's been two and a half years since we talked about this craziness at Bolt. And Breslow stepped down as CEO after posting that thread. He was accused of overstating Bolt's customers and technical capabilities to investors while raising money. That got probed by the SEC. They didn't take any action.

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And then their valuation was slashed 97% to $300 million earlier this year. That's where the story had ended until just last week when an insane story came out that Bolt's interim CEO, not Breslow, had emailed investors informing them out of the blue that they were going to raise $450 million at a $14 billion valuation. This came as a surprise to investors.

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They didn't know this was happening, according to reports, and that this deal would put Breslow back in charge as CEO. It was confusing to all the investors, and they've all started to lawyer up and try to figure this out. Here's what we know so far. Bolt is on pace to generate $28 million in revenue this year, roughly the same as 2021.

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And so a $14 billion valuation would be 500 times revenue, Chamath. I'm not sure who would pay for that deal. But this deal is unique in that it's called pay to play. If you don't know that term, it basically means if you're an existing investor, if you don't invest in this round, you're going to lose your existing shares or have them diluted massively.

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So some investment bank out of the Seychelles, which is that tiny island in Africa that rich people go on vacation, was supposed to put in 200 million. That firm was called Silver Bear. The other $250 million would come from a firm called The London Farm in marketing capital and credits on a venture investing platform. So anyway, there's a ton of carve-outs here and other stuff.

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I'm going to stop there at the notes and just, Sax, this is the craziest story. Sorry it took so long to get here. What are your thoughts on what we're seeing here in this drama and this Zerp valuation?

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Founder authority, founder responsibility.

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And what does winning have? Really talented, really driven people in different positions who understand their position.

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Are held accountable for their positions.

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Well, I mean, if Adam Newman had listened to a lot of the smart people he had hired at WeWork, he might not have signed leases that were so high priced and gotten away from the playbook that worked when they started that business, which was find the cheapest real estate, charge the highest price you can for it by making it, you know, a community and really nice.

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As opposed to hiring the class A, getting the class A space and then charging a B price.

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I love how he's like my guy, the astronaut, as if like Freeberg and an astronaut have the same life experience, you know?

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I have the perfect example of this. When I was running Weblogs Inc., we were going to raise a round of funding. Mark Cuban had given us the first 300, and Mark Andreessen was gonna give us 500K for our blogging company that did Engadget, et cetera. And I had met Jeff Bezos and I told him, I'm in Seattle this week, would love to catch up with you.

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I wasn't in, I said, I was gonna be in Seattle next week for the whole week, would love to catch up with you. I wasn't planning on being in Seattle. I made that story up just to make it convenient for him. And he said, sure, come by on Tuesday or whatever. I come by on Tuesday, I sit with Jeff Bezos, my partner, Brian Alveai. And the intellectual curiosity he took

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on taking a part in gadget and blogging as this new medium that was very disruptive at the time. How do you pick the name of the blog? Tell me about the CMS. What is the publishing strategy? How do you hire people? And I would say, oh, you know, we hire people. The best people are the great commentators. So we look at the great comments and then we hire them.

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And then I watched in Amazon, they started hiring the people writing great reviews for their review team. And I was like, oh, wow, he really is taking notes on this. And to your point, Sax, or maybe Chamath, you made this point. In terms of hiring, one of the great techniques Bezos had is a concept called bar raisers.

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And a bar raiser in Amazon is somebody you hire for your team who is so good that they raise the bar for the entire team. So when they would say, hey, we're going to add somebody to this team, they're going to be the 10th person, you'd say, are they better at whatever dimensions than the rest of the team? And will they raise the bar for everybody here?

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And then you think about some managers, they hire somebody who fits in. They hire somebody who doesn't rock the boat. And there are techniques here and very specific ways to attract talent to your startup that will become... You know, do you guys remember part of the reason why YC and Founders Fund and Andreessen took this path was to try to corner Sequoia?

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There was... a moment in time actually where this actually crossed over and you got to witness it, which was when Larry and Sergey were taking Google public. And before that, they said, you know, I don't know if the markets will let these two PhDs as smart as they are, as driven as they are with such a great product. I don't know if they're going to buy the stock.

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Can we get an adult in the room who's done this before? And they found Eric Schmidt, who had run Novell. And they brought him in as this, you know, third part of the triangle. And then eventually he wound up leaving, et cetera. What were your thoughts on Silicon Valley in that transition time and Eric Schmidt's role at Google?

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You left out the number one host on the internet and broadcast or news on YouTube. Megyn Kelly will be joining us.

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All right, here we go. A panel of California judges has ruled that Section 230 does not protect TikTok's algorithm in the case of the death, tragically, of a 10-year-old girl. We've talked about Section 230 and legislation to protect algorithms or to make algorithms more editorial.

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We'll get to that in a second, but let me just cue up the story and then we'll play a clip from episode 99 of All In podcast. In late 2021, a 10-year-old Pennsylvania girl accidentally killed herself while participating in a blackout challenge she saw on TikTok. That is a challenge that encourages viewers to choke themselves with objects like belts until they pass out.

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According to Bloomberg, this challenge has been linked with the deaths of 15 young people. Oh, my God. Yeah, this is terrible.

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The child's mother sued TikTok, arguing that their algorithm served blackout challenge videos to her child, thus making them responsible. In the past, algorithmic decisions, as we've talked about here, were protected under Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act.

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Just to break this down very simply, if you're Section 230, that grants internet platforms featuring user-generated content immunity from being sued over content published by those users on their platform. So YouTube, TikTok, Twitter, you know, a blogging platform, etc.

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So because of 230, you're technically not supposed to be able to go after something like TikTok because a random user posted crazy videos like this. But an appeals court, Chamath, has reversed that ruling with the judge arguing that TikTok's algorithm represents a unique, quote unquote, expressive product, which communicates to users through a curated stream of videos.

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The judge claims TikTok's algorithms reflect editorial judgment. So Here's the interesting legal detail. The new ruling specifically cites the Supreme Court's recent decision, Moody v. Net Choice, in which the court ruled unanimously to vacate that Florida law we talked about here that banned tech companies from deplatforming political officials.

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So that was viewed as a big win for speech protection sacks. and moderation rights in big tech. But this is all super ironic because the same ruling that affirmed big tech's First Amendment protections in content moderation may also have nullified the Section 230 immunity. So let's play this quick clip here.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

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Chamath, this is a discussion you and I had about should algorithms be part of Section 230 back in 2022?

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You're talking about the front page editor of the New York Times.

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There's such an easy way to do this. If you're TikTok, if you're YouTube, if you want section 230, if you want to have common carrier and not be responsible for what's there, when a user signs up, it should give them the option. Would you like to turn on an algorithm? Here are a series of algorithms which you could turn on. You could bring your own algorithm.

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"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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You could write your own algorithm with a bunch of sliders. Or here are ones that other users and services provide like an app store. So, Chamath, that was your take on it. And here we are. What are your thoughts on Section 230 and algorithms today? Should, if you use an algorithm, should that nullify, void your Section 230 protection?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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Yes, correct. Sax, your thoughts here on balancing 230 with the fact that I think we all agree that these algorithms are the new modern day editors.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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I have a third view, and I'll bring you in on this discussion here, Friedberg, is that these algorithms have become so powerful, they are even better than editors at catering to users' needs because they're obviously one-to-one casting, right? And so this is a perfect opportunity not to get rid of 230, but to evolve it. And as I said in that previous clip,

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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You know, there is a big issue as to who's making these algorithms in the case of TikTok, the Chinese government's influence. And, you know, what is their intention? And are they being thoughtful about it? Because they are powerful. And what responsibility do they take? Is the responsibility stomping at increasing the session?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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Because if you want to increase a session, all you have to do is keep showing more rage and getting people more upset. And that leads to division in society and all kinds of weird things that can occur. And so empowering users and having more transparency would be a great way for the government, for individuals who are frustrated with this, and the platforms to find some common ground and involve.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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What do you think of this possibility, Friedberg, of maybe you come to YouTube and instead of shutting down 230 and causing chaos, to your point, Sax, which I agree with that, it would cause chaos and more censoring. just saying to people, hey, welcome to YouTube. Here are three ways you can view your content by default.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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You can pick our algorithm, you can pick an education-leaning algorithm, you can pick a music-leaning algorithm, or you could have no algorithm at all and you'll just be faced with a directory. What do you think of that as maybe a middle ground here?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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That could be a better answer, too. I think based on some of our discussions, you know, yeah, having kids not have these phones at school and putting them into the pouches and no social media until you're 16 or 17, because one of the other things that's happening here is these algorithms are so good.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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that they are now causing a dopamine deficiency in children and it's causing depression because you can get desensitized and every time you swipe up, you get a dopamine hit and then your brain gets reset and you have less ability to get joy from having dinner with your family or playing cards with your friends or doing any other things. And that's what doom scrolling does.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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That's why we lost you, Sax, to the poker game. You're too busy doom scrolling and you got addicted to it and you don't come to poker anymore. But this is what we need to do. As a society, these phones are destroying everybody's lives. They're killing friendships. They're killing these poor kids who are sitting there like zombies. The algorithm is just too good.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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We have now the snake has eaten its tail.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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You know what? I'm going to do it with you. We're going to go on a little social media diet, you and I. From now on, we're going to go for sushi, maybe some sky. You've been acting insane.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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Let's get to the story here, comrade.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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Well, we're going to do it anyway. So here we go. The DOJ discharged two Russian media operatives with infiltrating podcasts. Yes, to push pro-Kremlin talking points. This was a wild drop on Wednesday, Chamath. The DOJ charged two Russian media operatives as part of an alleged, wait for it, propaganda and misinformation scheme.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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According to the charges, these two employees of the state-run Russia Today outlet, RT, funneled $10 million into a Tennessee-based media company to influence public opinion and sow social divisions. The wire transfers happened between October of last year And as recently as last month, this included placing blame on Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine for its conflict with Russia. Interesting.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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You're the most lukewarm ad read I've ever heard.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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Both Russians are charged with conspiracy to violate the Foreign Agents Registration Act and conspiracy to commit money laundering. They're looking at 20 years in jail. The indictment did not mention the company by name, but people quickly figured out who it was because of their location. The company is called Tenant Media, founded in 2023 by Lauren Chen, a conservative commentator.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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And their personalities included Tim Pool, Benny Johnson, Dave Rubin, and Lauren Southern. These are right-leaning podcasters. In the last year, Tenant has posted 2,000 videos, which collectively had 16 million YouTube views, according to the DOJ charges. Looks like the Russian operatives were coordinating with the founders.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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And Google Cloud is giving an amazing offer to everybody who comes to the summit. Wait till you hear the sacks. $350,000 for AI startups. Credit. And that's real money that you would have spent otherwise. So a great gift from our friends at Google Cloud.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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Okay. And just to be clear. I mean, do we all agree with that or not? I mean, I agree. It was a great move to not have advertising. Sure. Because there's zero pressure from anybody calling us saying we're going to pull our ad spots and also makes the pod easy to listen to. And none of us need the money.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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These personalities, Tim Pool, Benny Johnson, Dave Ruman, Lauren Southern have, I think most of them have come out and said they didn't know. The indictment says that they didn't know these podcasters. And the indictment also says they were paid huge sums of money, upwards of $100,000 per episode to do this.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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And it's unclear what they were asked to do in the indictment, but there are some pressure techniques to produce tweets around certain things that the Russians wanted propagated.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

4404.469

They said in the indictment that they wanted more traffic because they weren't hitting their traffic numbers and to please amplify different videos and tweets. that were pro-Russian. So that's in the indictment. So I guess the question then, Sachs, for you is- You're totally mischaracterizing this. What was mischaracterized? I would never mischaracterize this.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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And I literally would never, I have no horse in the race here. There's no reason for me to mischaracterize it. So what am I getting wrong?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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That's not true. You can ask me. I think Russia, I've told this to you many times, Russia's sole goal is to sow division between people in this country. I refuse to allow it to do so on this podcast or between you and I. The Russians just want to produce chaos. They do it on all sides. They get Green Party people.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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I have said since the beginning that the KGB's technique in America is to sow division. That's their sole goal. They don't care who wins. They just want us to not pay attention to what they're doing in Ukraine or what's happening in Russia.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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Yeah, I mean, I think the sowing... Cernovich's point that they just want to sow division and cause chaos is the key point. I don't think that Putin cares who wins. I think he just wants chaos here and he wants distraction. So whether he flips, he wants Kamala, he wants Hillary, he wants Trump. I think he just wants chaos. And that's what the KGB does.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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That's what the KGB has always done, is try to get people to not believe reality. And that is their playbook for all history. They want to demoralize a population to not believe in their institutions, to not believe facts. And if... It seems like it's working pretty well here in the United States.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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No, no. What happened with Kamala? I'm not aware. Was there an op on the left?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

4654.723

Oh, yeah. The four people are super anti-Kamala.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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No, I never said. No, no. I have to correct that. I've never said Trump was compromised. I said the people around him were compromised because they kept taking meetings and money from the Russians. And this is the Russian playbook. No, I believe you never believed in Russiagate putting a words aside and claims like this. And you're telling me what I think. You can ask me what I think.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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And I can tell you very clearly, again, that I think their plan is to find simple-minded people to give them money and to cause chaos and division in our country. I don't think that they got to Trump. I think they got to almost everybody around him. And if you look at those people who show up at Putin dinners and you look at who takes money, It's all around Trump.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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And the Russians are experts at this. And they did it to the Green Party. They just sprinkle money around people to cause this type of chaos. That's the goal. How many times do I got to say this to you clearly? I don't have a horse in this race. I think all Americans, I'll say it again so that you can understand it and the audience can understand my position very clearly.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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Their goal is to get us to fight with each other so we don't look at their invasion of Ukraine or what's happening with the suffering of the Russian people. And we as Americans should not be partisan on this issue.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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We as Americans should all come together, you, Sax, me, and everybody else, and say, we don't want the Russians interfering in our elections or causing division, and we're not going to make this political.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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Yeah, and I agree that Trump was not compromised by the Russians, just the people around him. And to recap for people, since maybe they don't remember, Michael Flynn, who was the national security advisor, pled guilty to lying to the FBI in 2017 about his contacts with the Russians. Paul Manafort, who was the campaign chairman for Trump,

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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had ties to pro-Russian figures in the Ukraine and shared polling data with the Russian associates during the campaign. He was convicted of tax and bank fraud in 2018, later pardoned by Trump, like Michael Flynn was pardoned. Rick Gates, who was the decorated deputy chairman, he worked closely with Paul Manafort. He pled guilty to conspiracy and lying to investigators.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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George Papadopoulos, I won't bring up because he was kind of a joke. And then Roger Stone was investigated for all his contacts With WikiLeaks, he was convicted of obstruction, lying to Congress, and witness tampering in 2019. So we have four of these folks being convicted. That's four people convicted.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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I'm just thinking if it's sold out, these aren't worth $7,500 each. What's it worth if you can't get in? I'm sure you'd find that out pretty quickly.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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My maintaining is, once again, fourth time, is that the Russians are trying to cause division in America and we shouldn't all fall for it. Hey, Friedberg.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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That's why we should be united. Let's be united. Friedberg, you've got some passionate thoughts on Kamala Harris pivoting a little bit around her economic policies in the last week or two. Let's wrap with that.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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I did give one away for free.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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No, I'm going to give them to my brother, Josh. If you want to get into the summit for 10K in cash, Josh will be at the loading dock.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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It's also... I think you've made this point, Shamath, as well, which is when you're running for the primaries, and I think Dean Phillips, when he was on the program, talked about this, you've got one agenda, and that tends to be a bit extreme because you're trying to get those extreme people in primaries to come out. Then when you get to the general election, you kind of come towards the middle.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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And we said on this very podcast, and I gave a couple of disclaimers as the moderator here, hey, we don't know these are communist policies because A, she's not talking to anybody, B, she hasn't released any. So maybe, you know, she's taking feedback.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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I have some inside information on this, which is there are people in our circles who are sitting with her saying these things are crazy and maybe pointing to our podcast and other reactions online. And maybe we should really think, what do you want to do? potentially, Madam President.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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Down at the Mongolian barbecue joint in Westwood. Listen, if you... If you've ever been to Madison Square Garden, you just hold up the number one and somebody will come talk to you. Somebody will come talk to you. All right. We've gotten through all the great housekeeping. And it's time to talk about founder mode. Founder mode.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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When you're president, if you do win, and I think she's starting to think from first principles, hey, what is actually good for the countries? That would be a very honest way of looking at this.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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No, no, I'm talking about in her policies. You can make whatever digs you want to her style, and that's valid. You can make whatever digs you want to Trump's style. What I'm talking about is she got thrown— You said she's thinking from first principles. Yeah, well, from her first principles as to what— Her writers are giving her new talking points.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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Okay, listen, can you stop with the personal attacks on people and just maybe have an intelligent— It's not a personal attack.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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Let me finish my thought, and then you can deride her style.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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OK, let me finish my point and then you can talk about substance or style. I think what happened here is she was put into the position as president and had to, in a very short period of time, come up with what her positions would be, because everybody knows when you're the vice president, your positions are what the president thinks. We've made that point about J.D.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

5314.08

Vance, that his position on wanting a national abortion ban has nothing to do with Trump's and Trump's wins in that situation. So here we are. I think it's a similar situation. Biden might have been captured and wanted to do this crazy wealth tax and this seizure of people's assets, whereas maybe she actually is much more moderate.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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And that's what people around her have always said is that she's more moderate and that she's coming to actually form her own platform. And she just needed time to do that. I'm giving what I'm hearing from the left. This isn't necessarily my position, Sax. This is what I'm hearing from the people around Kamala Harris.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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On Sunday, the Y Combinator founder, Paul Graham, published an essay titled Founder Mode. It was based on a talk that Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky gave to a group of YC founders last week. where he said, hey, the advice I got on running a large company was to hire good people and give them room to do their jobs. He says he took that advice and the results were a disaster.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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How would you say Trump's position on abortion relates to that? You know, don't people adapt their position based on winning? I mean, I think he's done a masterclass in changing his position.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

5475.827

Well, no, I think it's a great example of a politician moving to the center on the issue. He just said this week that he wants more than six weeks. Right. And so he's moving towards that.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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Well, the reason I talk about it is because there's so many states, including the one I'm living in where women can't get an abortion.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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So, I mean, I think women feel differently about it than, you know, you brushing it aside. They feel that Trump took away their right.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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Yeah, no, no. I'm just saying the truth for women that I talk to.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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The evangelicals are really upset about him in their perception, changing his mind, and women... Their view of it is he took away their right in the states where, like the one I live in, you can't get an abortion. Okay, everybody, this has been an amazing episode of the All In podcast. We got to business up front, great discussion, politics that got super toxic at the end.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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It's the mullet that you love, business, and then political parties at the back. Four. the Sultan of Science, who did an amazing job setting up all these amazing speakers and doing all the work on the all-in summit taking place next week. We thank you for your efforts. Sultan of Science, David Friedberg. You excited?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

5567.56

I love it. It's a team sport. That's right. For the chairman dictator, look at that. Look at that silver fox. Look at him with that great hair. When is it going to stop? Are you going to cut it for the summit or are you just... Wow. He's going big. And the architect. Welcome to 48. Welcome to 48. The architect, David Sachs, my bestie. Welcome to 48. I'll see you on Twitter. Welcome.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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I'll see you on Twitter, Sachs.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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So he studied how Steve Jobs ran Apple. And according to PG, Paul Graham, that is, a bunch of very successful founders in the audience, kind of nodded their head and said, Hey, that is similar to my experience. PG defines the world now in two ways, two philosophies for running a company manager mode versus founder mode in manager mode.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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And now the plugs. You can subscribe to this show on YouTube. Yes, watch all the videos. Our YouTube channel has passed 500,000 subscribers. Shout out to Donnie from Queens. Follow the show, x.com slash the all in pod. TikTok, the all in pod. Instagram, the all in pod. LinkedIn, search for all in podcast. And to follow Chamath, he's x.com slash Chamath. Sign up for his weekly email.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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what I read this week, at chamath.substack.com and sign up for a developer account at console.grok.com and see what all the excitement is about. Follow Sacks at x.com slash davidsacks and sign up for Glue at glue.ai. Follow Friedberg, x.com slash friedberg. And Ohalo is hiring. Click on the careers page at ohalogenetics.com I am the world's greatest moderator, Jason Calacanis.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

5712.2

If you are a founder and you want to come to my accelerators and my programs, founder.university, launch.close.apply to apply for funding from your boy, JCal, for your startup. And check out athenowow.com. This is the company I am most excited about at the moment. athenowow.com to get a virtual assistant for about $3,000 a month. I have two of them.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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Thanks for tuning in to the world's number one podcast. You can help by telling just two friends. That's all I ask. Forward. this podcast to two friends and say, this is the world's greatest podcast. You got to check it out. It'll make you smarter and make you laugh, laugh while learning. We'll see you all next time. Bye-bye.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

589.219

That's just the conventional way of doing this, what you teach in business school, you hire good people, you give them room to do their jobs. You tell your direct reports what to do, they figure it out, you don't micromanage. Pichi says, he doesn't give too many specifics about Founder Mode. He kind of says, hey, we've got to figure out what this thing is.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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The founder mode, baby. Let's go.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

605.393

So in some ways, this blog post to Moth was a way of starting the conversation. But he said... Things like less delegation and more hands-on. And if you haven't heard of it, skip level meetings. This is where the CEO will meet not with their manager or direct report, but maybe a group of people who report into that manager without the manager in the room.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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It's a notable and well-known management technique to kind of get information to the CEO a little bit faster. And what do you think? Chamathas got a lot of attention on a Sunday. Did you have any takeaways from it?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

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Welcome back to the number one podcast in the world. With me again, the chairman dictator, Chamath Palihapitiya. How you doing, buddy? Have you acclimated? Now you're 15 days back on American soil. How are you adjusting?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

779.17

Sacks, did you read the piece? You clearly saw all the memes and, you know, I guess, kudos for the piece on X this past weekend. What are your thoughts on it, generally speaking? Anything that you took from it that was notable, or is this just some obvious stuff?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

84.364

Oh, I know, the big 50th's coming. I've already called dibs on chairing your 50th, so we will be certainly getting arrested in 24 months. Save up your bail money, boys. Friedberg, you look... Like, you have had a record number of panic attacks in the last 48 hours. How is summit planning going? Are you okay, buddy? You took this responsibility on. Are you okay?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

927.651

And we've seen in some of the big company sacks that they've cut out middle management because so much of the work was just being playing telephone and handing it to the next person that when you took out that swath of people at Facebook or Google or Microsoft, the company seemed to work better because you're taking out a layer of overpaid people.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

"Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?

998.695

Is there something wrong with that model? You're kind of looking at it, and I'm kind of hearing a little bit of a tone there. Maybe I'm reading into it. That doesn't match reality.