Gavin Baker
Appearances
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Oh, yeah. And I think this will be part of, you know, the upcoming negotiation between America and China. But it is hard. You know, if we can't, you know, if America cannot keep illegal drugs out of, you know, out of our own country, these GPUs are arguably dramatically more valuable per capita
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
unit you know like a blackwell is like you know the size of this and it's just hard particularly like you know america we're trying to keep drugs out here china is trying to bring the gpus in and it's kind of significantly you know i think harder to prevent than than you know smuggling of illegal drugs now everybody does their best but um
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Yeah, the United States, I think it's always going to be kind of a game of cat and mouse until you get some sort of grand bargain. And right now they're allowed to sell certain kinds of GPUs into China, and I'm sure there'll be
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
I think we're putting enough friction into the system. that it does theoretically give America an advantage at the cost of creating tremendous incentives for China to develop their own semiconductor ecosystem and, you know, pressure to kind of, you know, necessity is the mother of innovation.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
And these export controls are creating an immense incentive for China to be really algorithmically innovative. And you saw that with DeepSeek, where there were some real algorithmic innovations.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
In the next five years, I think zero. I think it's really, really hard. But over the 10 years, who knows? And if you're the CCP, 10 years isn't that long. If you're America, 10 years is an eternity.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Look, I do think if... Agents materialize as a reality, and Manus is maybe a little bit of a chat GPT moment for that. I would say OpenAI and Anthropic. Anthropic developed something called the Model Contact Protocol that OpenAI just adopted. I think it will become a standard, and it makes it really easy for an LLM.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Well, so first thing he did, there was Alfred was from Sequoia.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Stripe can just integrate with MCP, and then any LLM that uses MCP can interact with Stripe. And this is solving a big, big problem for agents in terms of just making them much easier to use, much more standardized. But if agents become a reality, one, the ROI on AI and Blackwell is going to be very high.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
And two, what will... It's not good for human employment, but what will be kind of, I would say, the rate-limiting factor... is just compute. In a world where we all have agents doing things for us all day long, it's going to be a long time before we have enough compute in the ground for that to be a really, really widespread reality.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
And I think that's why OpenAI was talking about pricing their first agents at $2,000 to $20,000 a month. Like this ROI on AI question, I think to me really does come down to agents in the short term.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
And then they had a nice sell-side guy whose name is escaping me at the moment. But it is technically true. I was the only public equity investor on the buy side that Jensen asked. I've known Jensen for 25 years. He's kind of the same guy he ever was, just maybe slightly calmer.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Yeah, so I guess maybe take them in reverse order. I really don't think, like if NVIDIA had not put any money into CoreWeave, not put any money into kind of other of these neoclouds, I don't think it would have impacted their revenues at all. At all.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
What should our tariff policy be or what is it? I mean, we know what it is for autos. It's 25%.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Yeah, I mean, this is... Traditional economics would say, hey, tariffs are not a good idea. We should have free trade. Everybody understands the principle of comparative advantage. I do think the Trump administration is pretty convicted that that approach has not worked well for America over the last 20 years. And maybe it's worked well for knowledge workers, but it hasn't worked well for kind of
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
ordinary Americans. And I think they're very convicted in changing that and trying to bring back kind of good high quality manufacturing jobs to America. I they see tariffs as an effective way to do that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Yeah, more to Meta, more to Amazon, more to Microsoft. So the reason they did it is even three years ago, it was a very stable three-player oligopoly from the cloud computing players in Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. And if you're NVIDIA, that's not great to have just three big customers.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Well, one, I think it's Chamath in that clip illustrated. He is convicted in this. It's 40 years old.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Yeah, it's happening. And so I would say two things. Like, one, I think it's something I'm always conscious of. At, um... My wife, Becky, one of her college or high school reunions, there's a guy there who'd been in our class and had been in the Navy SEALs, and he deployed to 80 countries. He'd been in the Navy SEALs for like a decade. And I said, what's the one thing that you learned?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
And he said, the one thing I learned is everybody in America is always focused on making America better. Have you been to 80 different places all around the world? our only goal should be to not screw it up in America. Just don't make it worse because America is so much better than everywhere else. So the first thing is like, you know, Chamath said the word delicate and I think that's right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
And if I had one thought for the administration, it would be every time they say the word tariff, whatever they think, Wall Street and the markets, and I would say, you know, I think a lot of business leaders are convinced that tariffs are bad. Now, maybe Wall Street is wrong and the administration is right. One thing everyone agrees on is deregulation is good.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
So every time they say the word tariff, they need to say the word deregulation two or three times. Because... The best way to, I think, maximize the odds of this policy succeeding, despite the headwinds from automation, I think it's going to be a long time before we have hundreds of millions of robots.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Even between China and Tesla, I think it's going to take a long time to make vast numbers of humanoid robots. The best way to encourage this reshoring is just making it easier to do business in America.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Those big clouds, particularly in 2023, when there was such a rush to get GPUs, they each kind of want to do their own kind of custom version of an NVIDIA server. And NVIDIA, by giving kind of like a standard reference design, which someone like CoreWeave bought to CoreWeave, you got GPUs in the market a lot faster.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
And when you use NVIDIA's reference design, it's generally smoother and easier to stand them up. And so the big three kind of cloud computing hyperscalers, their incremental share of revenue went down and that was nothing but good for Nvidia because they now have kind of a more fragmented base of buyers who have less power over them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
So look, it's never good. But if you think NVIDIA has gone through the biggest product transition in history in terms of Hopper, you know, this is a business doing tens of billions of dollars at scale. There's never been a product transition like this in the history of semiconductors going from Hopper to Blackwell.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
you know kind of the 2022 generation gpu to this one the only precedent for this on planet earth is the iphone and there's something called the osborne effect which is you know when apple comes out with a new iphone for the three months before nobody buys the new iphone
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
No, I'll just say three really quick points. Like first, what Howard Lutnick literally said was if we can find a lot of waste, fraud and abuse, we don't have to raise the retirement age. Everybody's talking about raising the retirement age to 70. If we administer these programs more efficiently, we can keep it at 65. And, you know, that's good for everyone.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
The second thing is, it's just interesting to me. There's so much doubt about this when the inspector generals of, you know, both Biden and and Obama, you know, said there were hundreds of billions of dollars of waste, fraud and abuse. And I would just say someone in my immediate family has had their social security, their identity stolen.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
And someone is using their social security number to collect unemployment benefits in Alabama. And this has been going on for two years and they've been unable to stop it. And so, you know, you don't want to rely too much on anecdote, but I think this is really happening.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
And then just the third thing I would just say is I do think, you know, no one has ever raised, no president has ever raised my taxes more than Trump did. And I think they are pretty convicted in their focus on normal working class Americans and making their lives better is actually genuinely their North Star. You can disagree with the theory of the case.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
You can disagree with the way they're communicating it. But I think their intentions are good.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
I think maybe we start with... I just think it is... whether it's a semiannual or quarterly, something that is like the Doge report and everything's been audited and triple checked. These are the three categories. This is what we found. I think something like that would be very helpful.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
And I think the only reason NVIDIA was able to grow through this product transition is because of reasoning models like DeepSeq, which are just so compute hungry. And this product transition does come back to the day's receivables.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Yeah, it's never good when accounts receivables go up. But if this is the most understandable time for it to happen... In a product refresh cycle, you're saying. Yeah, and because... A hopper server, you know, it's a rack, it's whatever it is, seven feet high, it weighs a thousand pounds, it consumes 60 kilowatts, which is 60 American homes, and it's air-cooled.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
So you cool those GPUs, and the biggest problem with GPUs, one of the biggest, is they melt. You cool it with air. Blackwell weighs 3,000 pounds. So three times as much the rack, you know, it's eight feet tall, maybe five feet deep or four feet deep, 3,000 pounds. And it consumes 120 kilowatts.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
So twice as much power and roughly kind of the same footprint, three times as much weight and it's liquid cooled. So this is like an iPhone upgrade cycle. You know, it was like, It's still a pain that we went from, you know, lightning to USB-C. You know, I'll grab a cord and it'll be lightning instead of USB-C.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
This is like an iPhone upgrade cycle where to get the new iPhone, not only do you have to change your connectors, you have to put in a new generator, you have to put in a new boiler and a whole house humidification system, you know, to kind of make it work. So it's a monumental product transition and I think that is a lot of why the receivables went up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Marco Rubio did say someone made a big mistake. There were no consequences. We learned we're going to do better. And he is the secretary of state. So someone in the administration did say that this was a mistake.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
No, no, no.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
They were recognizing Blackwell revenue while it was still kind of getting into customers' hands. If that trend continues past the July quarter, then I would say, hey, that's reason for concern, but this is a very understandable time for that to happen from my perspective.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Yeah, I would just say I thought the contents were interesting and that there are a couple of things. You know, there's all this, you know, oh, the Trump administration is, you know, cozying up to Russia. I mean, you know, trying to blow up these, you know, this post-World War II alliance with Europe. There are two things.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
One, they said we are the only people on our side of the ledger who can deal with the Houthis. And our side of ledger, meaning like recognizing kind of Europe, Europe traditional alliances.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
The good team. So I thought that was interesting that just for all the rhetoric, they're conscious of who's the home team. And second, it was very clear to everyone in that chat, and JD Vance raised it, 3% of America's trade goes through the Suez Canal, 40% of Europe's trade. So we are really doing this. It will help us a little bit, but it will help Europe a vast amount.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
And we're doing something that helps them that they cannot do. Now, hey, they're asking that they want to be paid, but I just think it made me think that behind the scenes, a lot of this rhetoric about the US and the European schism is overblown. And we're still helping them. I thought that was interesting.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
If innocent people were sent to a prison, that's a terrible mistake. And that happens. And it shouldn't happen, and hopefully it gets rectified. But I guess my bigger thought is a little bit This administration, as we discussed, they have a really ambitious agenda. They want to fundamentally change America in ways that they think will be better for kind of blue-collar, normal working Americans.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
And things like this signal gate, if they made a mistake and sent innocent people to this prison, there's only so many of those mistakes they can afford before they lose kind of the mandate necessary to accomplish their goals. And, you know, hopefully it's, you know, we're in whatever. We're not even into the, you know, third full month. 66 days. 66 days. We're into the third month.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
They just... Execution matters. Like, if they... To accomplish their goals, they need to execute at a high level and communicate clearly and effectively. And just... If innocent people were sent to, you know, this prison, mistake. Signalgate...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
you know hey maybe it's a big mistake maybe it's a small mistake depending on where you sit i thought marco rubio's response was good but just like i think execution is important for them to accomplish their goals great freeberg any thoughts here i do not agree with sending people to prison or detention center without due process i felt similarly about guantanamo bay because i don't think it
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
I mean, the accounting gets very complicated with these systems. But yes, I mean, they have delivered it and they recognize the revenue. But maybe the customer is saying, hey, we're not going to pay you until X, you know, until we get them plugged in and working. I mean, who knows what it is?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
I agree so much with what you just said. Due process is important. Like America, like human rights are a core American value. And it was great you acknowledged that like the outcome in El Salvador was good. Homicides down 99.9%, lots of lives saved. And just, you know, there needs to be a balance between these.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Yeah, but it makes total sense to have accounts receivable. It's just that here the accounts receivable have gone up more than sales. And that's just a function of the complexity of this product transition.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
This whole debate is a question of ends versus means. And it's like, we all agree that the homicide rate down 99.9% in El Salvador is a good outcome. It's a good end. And this is one of the great philosophical questions. And it's, you know, we can debate it endlessly. And there has to be a balance between the two. Human rights are a core American value.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
And I agree, I think, with a lot of what David said. But I also think if you are You know, going back to that homicide rate, the Trump campaign, you know, they spoke to the mothers and the families of people who were brutally murdered or raped and murdered.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
by people who were illegal immigrants and were convicted criminals in their home country and were known convicted criminals and somehow still were not apprehended and then committed terrible crimes that were very similar to the crimes they committed there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
You have a lot of compassion for the victims too, but all they have to do, like one of, I thought, Elon's best moments, and I think, you know, it's what Doge is doing is great. These are brilliant people working hard for free to do things that have never been done before in the government in terms of efficiency and kind of modernizing IT.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
But Elon said at the first press conference, he says, listen, we're going to make mistakes, and then we're going to quickly correct them. So to me, I think all the administration needs to say, and I do think more due process, to David's point, is good, is like, listen, if we made a mistake, it's terrible, and we're going to fix it immediately.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
And it just gives you so much credibility when you say that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Absolutely, and sending NVIDIA GPUs to people who are adopting NVIDIA's reference architecture, which they believe is the best architecture for those GPUs, whereas each hyperscaler has their own slight tweaks to that server.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
That hyperscaler does it so it looks more like their other servers, but maybe it doesn't run quite as well as the standard NVIDIA reference architecture with all of their chips, not just the NVIDIA GPUs. But the Intel Insight analogy is interesting. I had not thought of that. Thank you, Jamal.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
So we're definitely not overbuilt yet. Since DeepSeek came out, what has happened since DeepSeek R1 came out is China is buying every GPU they can. One of the largest Chinese server manufacturers warned last night that there's about to be a shortage of GPUs in China. The price of memory DRAM goes up every day. So we're not overbuilt today.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Point number one, and OpenAI yesterday said that they are gating their new image generation service because they don't have enough GPUs. So we're not overbuilt yet. Blackwell is going to be a very successful product cycle. There is a little bit of a prisoner's dilemma where
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
You're going to spend on Blackwell almost no matter what, because if you don't, you're afraid that you cede a big advantage to a competitor. If you're meta and you don't spend and Google spends and their AI is a lot better than yours, you're worried you may not catch up.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Yeah, that's already the case. But here, this is a brand new architecture, which is a lot. I mean, not only is it really different as we went through, it is a lot better. But I would say all these GPUs, they're hard to get them working at the beginning. Like right now, hoppers are finely tuned. Everybody knows how to work with them.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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blackwell you know it's almost like you're you're skipping ahead you know it's like imagine each one of these gpus is a formula one car you know now you've skipped ahead 10 years in the future and you have to kind of learn how to drive that new formula one car and it takes a while till you drive it as well as the old one so any other thoughts gavin on the core weave ipo which will have happened by the time people listen to this episode yeah i would say you know the sentiment on x investors on x are pretty negative on core weave i think there's maybe a little bit of
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
negativity in the market. They had to reduce the range, lower the price. And everyone is very convinced this is a commodity business, loads of debt, loads of CapEx, one really concentrated customer, and that they're completely undifferentiated. And I guess I would just make a point, which is, in America, if you can pick any category, any retail category, and if you can run 1,000 stores...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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in 50 different states with different preferences and have those stores well-lit, clean, stocked by friendly employees with the right stuff in stock, you will create a business that is worth well over $10 billion. And that sounds easy, but very few companies have been able to do it.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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I think what may be underappreciated about CoreWeave is it's actually really hard to run these big training clusters. Everybody thinks it's easy, but to synchronize tens of thousands of GPUs where they're melting or cables are being unplugged and you lose a bunch of training data when it happens, I just think it's not...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
It may not be the commodity that everyone thinks it is, and it may turn out that it's much harder to do than people think.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Yeah, the world was convinced AWS, well, a lot of the world was convinced AWS was a terrible business for the first few years. You know, when Microsoft announced they're going to transition to the cloud, it was very controversial because you go from a CapEx light model to a CapEx heavy model. So, you know, Wall Street consensus has been wrong before.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And I do think CoreWeave runs these big GPU clusters as well as anyone. And there aren't that many people on planet Earth who can run them well. And you know, it's kind of easy. You can just look at the NPV of their contracts and the asset value.
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And so everyone, you know, who's kind of, you know, confidently putting out all the negatives here, like, I just think there are some offsetting positives that it's good for, you know, I think people to be aware of and consider. That's all.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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Above and beyond whiz. I mean, CoreWeave bought Weights and Biases, which I think is a really interesting acquisition for them that kind of kind of further differentiates them and maybe decommodifies them a little bit. But there have been quite a few acquisitions by big companies of smaller companies in the last month.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
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And I think because none of the companies that have been bought have been public, maybe it's flying a little under the radar, but it's happening in, I think, an accelerating way. And I think this would be very good for the market and animal spirits and everything that we care about.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I think there's too much money in politics now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I might feel very, very differently if I didn't agree so profoundly with the largest donor in this political cycle. I would say the reality is, as long as the money raised on each side is roughly equivalent, I don't think it really matters. That would be my take. You just want some equivalence. That's all.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Yeah, it's pretty wild, actually.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Like what's your sense of this? Yeah. Yeah. I want to get the G1, which is their humanoid robot.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Profoundly agree. I think year of the robots, inclusive of FSD. I think FSD works today and it's going to It's going to cross into mainstream adoption where I already notice, particularly if I'm taking an Uber late at night, I really, really prefer to have a Tesla. Just sometimes you get an Uber driver who's tired. And I just feel a lot safer if they have the FSD running.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And then obviously using it for yourself is amazing. But I think it's going to continue compounding at an accelerating rate. I think in a lot of ways, what I'd say broadly is, I think for a while, it's going to be big businesses are winners, big businesses that use AI thoughtfully.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And the reason is, is that with what is happening, what O3 showed us, OpenAI's new model, a combination of reasoning and test time compute, Like I think if you're a big business and you can pay a million dollars to let an AI think for six weeks about the most important question for your business, that's gonna be a profound advantage relative to small businesses that can't afford that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And by the way, we are the other, like inference compute is gonna be the kind of derivative winner of that. We're gonna run out of GPUs, accelerators, compute, in 2025 the same way we did in 23.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I do think that they might be very good for the world. But I do think they would be very bad for America if they replaced, if some constellation of stable coins became the new reserve currency. It is such an advantage to be able to borrow in your own currency and to give that up lightly. That means you control the real size of your debt at all times. oh, wow, we have a big, big debt.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I mean, this is a little bit like what we just did. Let's just let inflation run hot. And oh, wow, that debt's a lot smaller than it was. Effectively. So I think it would be a big mistake.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Jason, shouldn't you just go with the vibe of the podcast? Shouldn't you explain what it is? Oh, sorry.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Yeah, I think it's great.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I would take the other side on pro sports teams. It feels like that market is about to be institutionalized and funds are going to start buying pro sports teams that ultimately and ultimately capital markets have way more resources than kind of the wealthy individuals who've done it to date. So I just think it's the amount of money that can go after pro sports teams is about to
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Looking great.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
When you say interacting, what do you mean when you say interacting? Wait, hold on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
No, I just want to just come back to Chamath because for sure these private equity guys are DCFs. The NBA has been terribly managed. I think even LeBron said they have a big problem. know and i'd separate the nba is the worst managed nfl is probably the best managed but the one kind of counterpoint i would say on the tv rights is google bought sunday ticket and are extremely happy with it
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Amazon and Netflix also both bought NFL games and are really happy with them. And so I just think those three companies, it doesn't really matter to them if pharma ads go away. In 18 months, you're going to be able to dynamically create an ad for each individual person and show it to them. And if you're a high value user that Google knows that you're about to book a vacation,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
They'll dynamically generate whatever hotel destinations you want and show click here. So I just think sports, as long as they command the eyeballs that they do, and for sure, if the NBA doesn't fix it, the value of those franchises will start to decline.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
But just the fact that all of the biggest tech companies are so happy with the sports kind of rights that they bought, they're going to buy them all. Every sport will go to one of those companies.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I agree. And they, you know, I mean, they all, all except for Apple, really. And Apple, they have, I think, an MLS deal, but they all kind of stuck their toe in the water. And I think they feel like, wow, the water's warm. Let's dive in. Okay. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Government service providers. You do not want to have the United States government at any level as over 35% of your revenue.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Crazy thought. Crazy thought.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Atreides Management. Atreides Management.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Yeah. Cost plus is terrible. No, just cost plus is terrible. That's all right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I only ski in the morning.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I would rather not talk about specific positions. I would just say I agree 100% with Chamath. All right, there you go. They're gonna lose their Chinese business, because they don't make competitive products anymore. If there's not massive protectionism, and we're seeing signs of that, they'll be caught between Tesla and the Chinese OEMs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And I think the only way that this doesn't happen, Chamath's, the only risk to Chamath's prediction is just government intervention, because they're such big employers and often seen as national champions. But absent really significant government support, They're all in deep trouble.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Get a little work done. Need a healthy mix of apres, ski, and ski.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I think the biggest business deal is that they're going to be deals. I think you're going to see a tidal wave of M&A after four years of not being able to get anything done. I think there's an enormous amount of pent-up demand. So kind of point number one. Point number two, something will happen with Intel, and that will be big, and hopefully it's good for America.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And then I do think you will see a lot of these frontier AI labs that are independent be acquired. I thought your points were well taken, Jason, about everything that Google is bringing to bear and XAI owns their own compute.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I mean, you guys can choose whichever one of these three you like, but the ultimate AI winner will be the one with the lowest cost of infrastructure costs, the lowest cost of compute. And definitionally, you can't be the low-cost provider if you're renting your compute from someone else. Because of markups. Yeah, because there's a markup.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Well, I would say I'd make two observations. First, like I'm in the bottom percentile in terms of natural athleticism, but I do have many, many thousands of hours skiing. Great. Okay. And I would just leave it at that. Yes. Oh, okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
If you're buying your compute from Azure or AWS or Google, you are at a disadvantage relative to their internal services over time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
only thing i would add and i think dovetails with what you said and and um friedberg's kind of year of the robot is autonomous drones there's a company called zipline which my firm is an investor in yeah but autonomous drones they really are the best way to deliver almost anything to suburban america and then i think over time it will be sorted out so that they could deliver in cities as well
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
So I just think that that might be a little bit of a wild card for some of these delivery services.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Apple intelligence is even worse than Copilot, which is saying something.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Do you guys think Tyson threw that fight? That it was part of the deal? Yes. Thousand percent. I so agree. I would love... I think somebody said Saudi Arabia was offering to host a remake or whatever, a rematch, a rematch of the fight where the winner would make 50 million and then we'll see what's what.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Yes. And the loser gets zero.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Well, first we should use Gemini deep research to just ask it to look at the total Pax Americana debt outstanding, apply the current market interest rate to it, and then look at that interest expense relative to GDP and generate that chart over time, that would be a cool chart. That would be interesting. I don't disagree with Chamath.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Anything is possible and there could for sure be a problem at a big bank. I don't know that I would say it's likely, but anything is possible. My most contrarian belief, so I think that America over the next, at some point over the next four years, will print at least one year of greater than 5% GDP growth, real GDP growth.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I think productivity is going to go vertical because of AI and deregulation. And I think there could be a world where this is the late 90s. And it doesn't sound like a big difference, you know, 5% or 6% versus 2% or 3%, but it is a massive difference. you know, at five or 6%, you know, the economy is doubling. You'll call it every 12 years, roughly. First 24 years at 3%.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I mean, it's just, it's a massive difference in terms of kind of the wealth of the country and individual Americans. As far as a specific prediction for 25, because I don't know when that will happen, I think you will see the frontier labs stop releasing their leading edge models to prevent knowledge distillation and their IP effectively being stolen.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Gavin, what do you think? I think it's right. I think there were a lot of people, not just centrists, but a lot of people who had been lifelong Democratic voters who voted for Trump. So I do think Trump won the centrists. Trump won everything. essentially.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
You know, DeepSeek from China, it was really impressive, but it thinks it's GPT-4. So I just think you'll see the labs keep their best models in-house, distill them, and put small models out over time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I totally agree. I think AI, you know, people are fond of saying that we're in a world of AGI or ASI, money will be meaningless. But for a short period of time, money will matter more than it's ever mattered before. Because the amount of money you can spend on AI on test time compute is going to give you a massive advantage, whether you're a company or an individual.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
So I just think AI is going to really amplify inequality for some period of time. I hope I'm wrong. I hope AI leads to all sorts of opportunities being created for low-income people.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Socialism. Socialism is going to rise.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I think it's pretty interesting.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
But just to build on what you said earlier, like wokeism and progressivism will decouple from socialism. I think wokeism and progressivism you know, we'll be on a declining trend, but socialism in terms of the government. Like policies, you guys are saying. Yeah, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Thanks for having me here, Jason, Chamath, and Dave. Atreides, we're a crossover firm. We invest publicly and privately in consumer and tech, and we go from Series A to mega cap.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I think the companies that make high bandwidth memory, going back to we're going to run out of compute, it's actually a pretty shocking stat. High bandwidth memory is a bigger part of NVIDIA's cogs on GPUs than Taiwan CME is. And today there's two companies that can make it, Hynix and Micron. We'll see if Samsung gets their act together.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
But HBM memory, it's in NVIDIA GPUs, AMD GPUs, Amazon Terraniums. And particularly in a world of test time compute and inference being so important, HiBen with memory is arguably more important than it ever was. And it's been sold out for the last two years. So HiBen with memory would be my pick.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
No, no. I was just thinking. I mean, if Chamath's prediction of a bank failure is true, you absolutely want to own CDS. I mean, you'll forget 100X. You'll do 1,000X, 10,000X.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Really cheap. I've had a, I would call it a no China guideline ever since the long top financial fraud more than 15 years ago. It was just amazing. It was, you know, a lot of great investors owned it. And, you know, they talked a great game and they had a Western auditor.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
But then it turned out that the fraud was happening at the local post office where they were opening up the documents that the local auditors had signed off on, changing them and then sending different documents, you know, whatever, FedExing them. Yeah, so I just think it's a hard place, I think, if you're not Chinese, to make money. But I tend to agree with a lot of what David said.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I think Trump and Xi both want to deal. I think there's a deal to be done that leaves Putin out in the cold, as I referenced. And if that happens, Katie, bar the door. I mean, there are really, really high-quality companies that are – some of them are mid-single-digit multiples. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Enterprise application software. This is basically just about... 2025 is going to be, I think, the year of agents, particularly in the second half. Agents just being... AI models that can take action on your behalf, that can do anything online that a human can do online.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And if the labs and the big cloud providers dominate agents, which seems likely going back to, you know, the low cost producer is going to win. Enterprise application software, I think, is going to be in a lot of pain. And some of these companies are talking a big game about agents. But at the end of the day, they don't have their own models. They don't own their own compute.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And I just don't see them being ultimate winners in the world of agents. You know, I could easily, I could be wrong because they do, you know, they have some customer data, maybe a little bit of a data moat. And they do, you know, have strong customer relationships. But, you know, most companies have relationships with AWS, Google, or Microsoft as well.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
So I think enterprise application software will be in pain.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I would say Trump and centrism.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And just to add just one last thing is just, you know, fundamentally, these enterprise application software companies, the software industrial complex, and I agree with everything Chamath said,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
know they're they're fundamentally based on making white collar human employees more efficient and what the ai companies are going to do is just say hey we're just going to replace that worker and it's just a fundamentally different mentality shift yeah and it goes to like there may be a lot of pain that accompanies this and you know david's points around the you know potential rise of of socialism
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Jeez, this is scary. It was an obvious...
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
They've all started competitors.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
But also 6 billion in losses too, David, against that 12 billion in revenue.
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2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I think the 6 is for next year, but I don't know.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I think AI, and Nick, I sent you a chart. I don't know if you could flash it up, but I think AI is going to make more progress per quarter in 2025 than it did per year in 23 and 24. And the reason is just with 01 and 03, this is Arc AGI, it's designed, you know, we keep changing the goalposts for the Turing test and AGI, I'm sure we're going to change it again.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
we're going to blow through this and i just think what has happened is we were scaling around round one on one axis which was pre-training and then we started scaling around inference time compute and it's very clear that we have now added a third axis of scaling performance and that is reasoning and what this is is these models the internet is composed of answers people giving answers and what the models really benefit from
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
is kind of the internal monologue of somebody getting to that answer. And this is, you know, in AI terms, they call it a reasoning trace. And it's one reason, you know, 18 months ago, everybody was like, oh, wow, the more code you train a model on, the better it does and all sorts of things that have seemingly nothing to do with code.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
But all code, you see kind of the reasoning, the internal monologue, the thought process, the step by step. And so what's happening is you're using models to generate synthetic data that contains these reasoning traces. So you ask a model, you know, solve this problem, it has to be a problem that is functionally verifiable, that has an answer, or you know, the answer, we say show your work.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And we have to do that many, many different ways and times. And then you pick the best ones, and you kind of feed those back into the model, you apply some reinforcement learning to it. And so now you're scaling along three axes that are multiplicative with each other. And I just,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I think Putin. I think Putin is going to lose bigly. So if you are Xi Jinping, you know, Xi Jinping, Russia is a client state of China at this point. If you're Xi Jinping, what is happening is now a disaster for you because Europe is starting to rearm, which will only accelerate this year.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
A guy on the Google team tweeted maybe five days ago, it's going to be a straight shot to ASI, artificial superintelligence. And I think that might be right. Ilya gave a talk at NeurIPS, Ilya Sutskever, one of the original pioneers of this field. And he said something that I thought was...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
scary and he said these models that reason are inherently unpredictable so the best reasoning models in the world today are the ones that play games the kind of alpha go alpha zero style models and they are constantly making unpredictable moves that no human grand master ever could have come up with and now these models are going to be making similarly unpredictable leaps in all sorts of domains
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
which hopefully will be awesome, but it might not be.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
That will allow America to take resources out of Europe and put them in Japan and South Korea and all over the Pacific. That makes it a lot harder for you to do what you most want to do, which is
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Unquestioned, 1923, season two. I'm normally a science fiction kind of fantasy spy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
of guy when it comes to tv but 1883 and 1923 were the first tv shows that kind of hit me the way game of thrones did and i'm crazy excited for that to come out fantastic are you watching land man i'm enjoying land man i haven't watched it yet i'm excited to try it it's quite fun quite fun turns out this guy taylor sheridan he's i mean he yeah it's incredible he's in the zone
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
reunify china and taiwan or invade taiwan uh let's call it what it is and i just think xi is going to begin decoupling from putin if you're trump you want to show that you're independent that you're not um enthralled to putin in any way so i think trump is going to be a lot tougher on putin than people think and i think he's going to get a very very uh a deal that's very very bad
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Yeah, I'm excited to hear Day of the Jackal, Sicario, yeah. Absolutely.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Yeah, it's reasonable.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Yeah, it is interesting. Obama deported, I think, more than 2 million people. It's like people have forgotten. But he was actually really, really tough on the border.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I mean, Google is. I would say they're a lot smaller, which makes it easier for them to grow faster. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Well, it probably won't be Google because if they had the largest dollar gain, it would mean they were growing at insane rates. But I think Azure versus AWS will be interesting.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I think like most things, it'll take, like immigration, it'll take time to get going. Yeah. It just, it's going to take a little bit of time, but I think they will make progress. By the way, at some point, if I'm here on the all in again, I want to talk about UFOs and the drones. Let's talk about it now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
So I don't know. And I think it's very clear. If you look at all the statements from the New Jersey mayors and governors who've met with the police, the FBI, the Defense Department that they don't know. Now, you know, Trump said someone in the government knows what they are. He also said he was not going to go to Bedminster anytime soon, his resort there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
for Russia and Ukraine, and you've lost half a million people, and for what?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I just think over the last, I'd say eight years, every 18 months, there's a big story in the New York Times, the Washington Post, the New Yorker, the Atlantic, very credible media sources that with dozens of interviews with fighter pilots and commercial pilots talking about seeing things with advanced sensors that made no sense to them. And then there's kind of a taboo that went away.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
There was an article in the New Yorker where they quoted from a bunch of people who were at, you know, kind of the skunkworks laboratories in the 1950s and said they absolutely saw extraterrestrial materials that have been recovered from a crash. That's one reason the US made such big leaps in material science.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And, you know, there was the Uemana thing where essentially a lot of, you know, astronomers said, hey, this is clearly a UFO of some sort, including the head of astronomy at Harvard. And then just the conspiracy theory I would have is if, if, if, if, if, These are actually UFOs and not government drones, either from the United States or China.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
It seems like the most likely explanation in New Jersey is that some sort of a drill. And obviously, once this hysteria gets going, people misidentify commercial airplanes as drones. And why would UFOs have blinking green and red lights? But it is just interesting that there was a big concentration of these reports
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
as we were scaling into nuclear technology, 1945 to 1960, and then now that AI is getting going, which is the next kind of technological phase shift for humanity, there's another big kind of bolus of reports.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I mean, I think it depends how deeply it's classified. And I'm sure if the government doesn't want to give it up, they won't give it up. But, you know, there's all the, you know, there's all this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Yeah. And, you know, they call it UAPs now to make it, you know, not flying saucers. But it just feels like something funny.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
At least 20%. 20% from Chamath.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I would say 25%. I would take the over on the 20%.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I don't know. It is so strange the way there are, you know, in so many, I would say, cultures all over the world, pre, you know, we are closer in time to Cleopatra than she was to the time of the Great Pyramids. Like, that was a long time ago. But it's just weird that in so many cultures all over the world, there are these depictions of what looked like astronauts.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And then there's all these Renaissance era paintings that clearly show what we would call UFOs in the skies over cities. So I don't know. I just think it's- I'm with you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
But I think Trump said something very interesting about John Bolton. He said the guy was absolutely crazy, but it was awesome having him in the room when you were negotiating deals. Because people looked at this guy looking angry, red in the face, so excited to hit the nuclear button, so excited to go to war. And you ended up with much better deals.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
So I think you're going to see probably a lot more bellicosity from the Trump administration than anyone expects. And that's just to get a good deal done. for, you know, between Russia and Ukraine. And then it's to get China to kind of decouple from Russia. So I think the in reality, I think you're right, David.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
But I think there will be a lot of rhetoric that is at odds with what you're saying before you end up being right.