Gavin Baker
Appearances
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I think there's too much money in politics now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I might feel very, very differently if I didn't agree so profoundly with the largest donor in this political cycle. I would say the reality is, as long as the money raised on each side is roughly equivalent, I don't think it really matters. That would be my take. You just want some equivalence. That's all.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Yeah, it's pretty wild, actually.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Like what's your sense of this? Yeah. Yeah. I want to get the G1, which is their humanoid robot.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Profoundly agree. I think year of the robots, inclusive of FSD. I think FSD works today and it's going to It's going to cross into mainstream adoption where I already notice, particularly if I'm taking an Uber late at night, I really, really prefer to have a Tesla. Just sometimes you get an Uber driver who's tired. And I just feel a lot safer if they have the FSD running.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And then obviously using it for yourself is amazing. But I think it's going to continue compounding at an accelerating rate. I think in a lot of ways, what I'd say broadly is, I think for a while, it's going to be big businesses are winners, big businesses that use AI thoughtfully.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And the reason is, is that with what is happening, what O3 showed us, OpenAI's new model, a combination of reasoning and test time compute, Like I think if you're a big business and you can pay a million dollars to let an AI think for six weeks about the most important question for your business, that's gonna be a profound advantage relative to small businesses that can't afford that.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And by the way, we are the other, like inference compute is gonna be the kind of derivative winner of that. We're gonna run out of GPUs, accelerators, compute, in 2025 the same way we did in 23.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I do think that they might be very good for the world. But I do think they would be very bad for America if they replaced, if some constellation of stable coins became the new reserve currency. It is such an advantage to be able to borrow in your own currency and to give that up lightly. That means you control the real size of your debt at all times. oh, wow, we have a big, big debt.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I mean, this is a little bit like what we just did. Let's just let inflation run hot. And oh, wow, that debt's a lot smaller than it was. Effectively. So I think it would be a big mistake.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Jason, shouldn't you just go with the vibe of the podcast? Shouldn't you explain what it is? Oh, sorry.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Yeah, I think it's great.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I would take the other side on pro sports teams. It feels like that market is about to be institutionalized and funds are going to start buying pro sports teams that ultimately and ultimately capital markets have way more resources than kind of the wealthy individuals who've done it to date. So I just think it's the amount of money that can go after pro sports teams is about to
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Looking great.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
When you say interacting, what do you mean when you say interacting? Wait, hold on.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
No, I just want to just come back to Chamath because for sure these private equity guys are DCFs. The NBA has been terribly managed. I think even LeBron said they have a big problem. know and i'd separate the nba is the worst managed nfl is probably the best managed but the one kind of counterpoint i would say on the tv rights is google bought sunday ticket and are extremely happy with it
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Amazon and Netflix also both bought NFL games and are really happy with them. And so I just think those three companies, it doesn't really matter to them if pharma ads go away. In 18 months, you're going to be able to dynamically create an ad for each individual person and show it to them. And if you're a high value user that Google knows that you're about to book a vacation,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
They'll dynamically generate whatever hotel destinations you want and show click here. So I just think sports, as long as they command the eyeballs that they do, and for sure, if the NBA doesn't fix it, the value of those franchises will start to decline.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
But just the fact that all of the biggest tech companies are so happy with the sports kind of rights that they bought, they're going to buy them all. Every sport will go to one of those companies.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I agree. And they, you know, I mean, they all, all except for Apple, really. And Apple, they have, I think, an MLS deal, but they all kind of stuck their toe in the water. And I think they feel like, wow, the water's warm. Let's dive in. Okay. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Government service providers. You do not want to have the United States government at any level as over 35% of your revenue.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Crazy thought. Crazy thought.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Atreides Management. Atreides Management.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Yeah. Cost plus is terrible. No, just cost plus is terrible. That's all right.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I only ski in the morning.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I would rather not talk about specific positions. I would just say I agree 100% with Chamath. All right, there you go. They're gonna lose their Chinese business, because they don't make competitive products anymore. If there's not massive protectionism, and we're seeing signs of that, they'll be caught between Tesla and the Chinese OEMs.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And I think the only way that this doesn't happen, Chamath's, the only risk to Chamath's prediction is just government intervention, because they're such big employers and often seen as national champions. But absent really significant government support, They're all in deep trouble.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Get a little work done. Need a healthy mix of apres, ski, and ski.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I think the biggest business deal is that they're going to be deals. I think you're going to see a tidal wave of M&A after four years of not being able to get anything done. I think there's an enormous amount of pent-up demand. So kind of point number one. Point number two, something will happen with Intel, and that will be big, and hopefully it's good for America.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And then I do think you will see a lot of these frontier AI labs that are independent be acquired. I thought your points were well taken, Jason, about everything that Google is bringing to bear and XAI owns their own compute.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I mean, you guys can choose whichever one of these three you like, but the ultimate AI winner will be the one with the lowest cost of infrastructure costs, the lowest cost of compute. And definitionally, you can't be the low-cost provider if you're renting your compute from someone else. Because of markups. Yeah, because there's a markup.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Well, I would say I'd make two observations. First, like I'm in the bottom percentile in terms of natural athleticism, but I do have many, many thousands of hours skiing. Great. Okay. And I would just leave it at that. Yes. Oh, okay.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
If you're buying your compute from Azure or AWS or Google, you are at a disadvantage relative to their internal services over time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
only thing i would add and i think dovetails with what you said and and um friedberg's kind of year of the robot is autonomous drones there's a company called zipline which my firm is an investor in yeah but autonomous drones they really are the best way to deliver almost anything to suburban america and then i think over time it will be sorted out so that they could deliver in cities as well
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
So I just think that that might be a little bit of a wild card for some of these delivery services.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Apple intelligence is even worse than Copilot, which is saying something.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Do you guys think Tyson threw that fight? That it was part of the deal? Yes. Thousand percent. I so agree. I would love... I think somebody said Saudi Arabia was offering to host a remake or whatever, a rematch, a rematch of the fight where the winner would make 50 million and then we'll see what's what.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Yes. And the loser gets zero.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Well, first we should use Gemini deep research to just ask it to look at the total Pax Americana debt outstanding, apply the current market interest rate to it, and then look at that interest expense relative to GDP and generate that chart over time, that would be a cool chart. That would be interesting. I don't disagree with Chamath.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Anything is possible and there could for sure be a problem at a big bank. I don't know that I would say it's likely, but anything is possible. My most contrarian belief, so I think that America over the next, at some point over the next four years, will print at least one year of greater than 5% GDP growth, real GDP growth.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I think productivity is going to go vertical because of AI and deregulation. And I think there could be a world where this is the late 90s. And it doesn't sound like a big difference, you know, 5% or 6% versus 2% or 3%, but it is a massive difference. you know, at five or 6%, you know, the economy is doubling. You'll call it every 12 years, roughly. First 24 years at 3%.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I mean, it's just, it's a massive difference in terms of kind of the wealth of the country and individual Americans. As far as a specific prediction for 25, because I don't know when that will happen, I think you will see the frontier labs stop releasing their leading edge models to prevent knowledge distillation and their IP effectively being stolen.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Gavin, what do you think? I think it's right. I think there were a lot of people, not just centrists, but a lot of people who had been lifelong Democratic voters who voted for Trump. So I do think Trump won the centrists. Trump won everything. essentially.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
You know, DeepSeek from China, it was really impressive, but it thinks it's GPT-4. So I just think you'll see the labs keep their best models in-house, distill them, and put small models out over time.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I totally agree. I think AI, you know, people are fond of saying that we're in a world of AGI or ASI, money will be meaningless. But for a short period of time, money will matter more than it's ever mattered before. Because the amount of money you can spend on AI on test time compute is going to give you a massive advantage, whether you're a company or an individual.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
So I just think AI is going to really amplify inequality for some period of time. I hope I'm wrong. I hope AI leads to all sorts of opportunities being created for low-income people.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Socialism. Socialism is going to rise.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I think it's pretty interesting.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
But just to build on what you said earlier, like wokeism and progressivism will decouple from socialism. I think wokeism and progressivism you know, we'll be on a declining trend, but socialism in terms of the government. Like policies, you guys are saying. Yeah, yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Thanks for having me here, Jason, Chamath, and Dave. Atreides, we're a crossover firm. We invest publicly and privately in consumer and tech, and we go from Series A to mega cap.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I think the companies that make high bandwidth memory, going back to we're going to run out of compute, it's actually a pretty shocking stat. High bandwidth memory is a bigger part of NVIDIA's cogs on GPUs than Taiwan CME is. And today there's two companies that can make it, Hynix and Micron. We'll see if Samsung gets their act together.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
But HBM memory, it's in NVIDIA GPUs, AMD GPUs, Amazon Terraniums. And particularly in a world of test time compute and inference being so important, HiBen with memory is arguably more important than it ever was. And it's been sold out for the last two years. So HiBen with memory would be my pick.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
No, no. I was just thinking. I mean, if Chamath's prediction of a bank failure is true, you absolutely want to own CDS. I mean, you'll forget 100X. You'll do 1,000X, 10,000X.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Really cheap. I've had a, I would call it a no China guideline ever since the long top financial fraud more than 15 years ago. It was just amazing. It was, you know, a lot of great investors owned it. And, you know, they talked a great game and they had a Western auditor.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
But then it turned out that the fraud was happening at the local post office where they were opening up the documents that the local auditors had signed off on, changing them and then sending different documents, you know, whatever, FedExing them. Yeah, so I just think it's a hard place, I think, if you're not Chinese, to make money. But I tend to agree with a lot of what David said.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I think Trump and Xi both want to deal. I think there's a deal to be done that leaves Putin out in the cold, as I referenced. And if that happens, Katie, bar the door. I mean, there are really, really high-quality companies that are – some of them are mid-single-digit multiples. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Enterprise application software. This is basically just about... 2025 is going to be, I think, the year of agents, particularly in the second half. Agents just being... AI models that can take action on your behalf, that can do anything online that a human can do online.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And if the labs and the big cloud providers dominate agents, which seems likely going back to, you know, the low cost producer is going to win. Enterprise application software, I think, is going to be in a lot of pain. And some of these companies are talking a big game about agents. But at the end of the day, they don't have their own models. They don't own their own compute.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And I just don't see them being ultimate winners in the world of agents. You know, I could easily, I could be wrong because they do, you know, they have some customer data, maybe a little bit of a data moat. And they do, you know, have strong customer relationships. But, you know, most companies have relationships with AWS, Google, or Microsoft as well.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
So I think enterprise application software will be in pain.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I would say Trump and centrism.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And just to add just one last thing is just, you know, fundamentally, these enterprise application software companies, the software industrial complex, and I agree with everything Chamath said,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
know they're they're fundamentally based on making white collar human employees more efficient and what the ai companies are going to do is just say hey we're just going to replace that worker and it's just a fundamentally different mentality shift yeah and it goes to like there may be a lot of pain that accompanies this and you know david's points around the you know potential rise of of socialism
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Jeez, this is scary. It was an obvious...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
They've all started competitors.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
But also 6 billion in losses too, David, against that 12 billion in revenue.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I think the 6 is for next year, but I don't know.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I think AI, and Nick, I sent you a chart. I don't know if you could flash it up, but I think AI is going to make more progress per quarter in 2025 than it did per year in 23 and 24. And the reason is just with 01 and 03, this is Arc AGI, it's designed, you know, we keep changing the goalposts for the Turing test and AGI, I'm sure we're going to change it again.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
we're going to blow through this and i just think what has happened is we were scaling around round one on one axis which was pre-training and then we started scaling around inference time compute and it's very clear that we have now added a third axis of scaling performance and that is reasoning and what this is is these models the internet is composed of answers people giving answers and what the models really benefit from
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
is kind of the internal monologue of somebody getting to that answer. And this is, you know, in AI terms, they call it a reasoning trace. And it's one reason, you know, 18 months ago, everybody was like, oh, wow, the more code you train a model on, the better it does and all sorts of things that have seemingly nothing to do with code.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
But all code, you see kind of the reasoning, the internal monologue, the thought process, the step by step. And so what's happening is you're using models to generate synthetic data that contains these reasoning traces. So you ask a model, you know, solve this problem, it has to be a problem that is functionally verifiable, that has an answer, or you know, the answer, we say show your work.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And we have to do that many, many different ways and times. And then you pick the best ones, and you kind of feed those back into the model, you apply some reinforcement learning to it. And so now you're scaling along three axes that are multiplicative with each other. And I just,
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I think Putin. I think Putin is going to lose bigly. So if you are Xi Jinping, you know, Xi Jinping, Russia is a client state of China at this point. If you're Xi Jinping, what is happening is now a disaster for you because Europe is starting to rearm, which will only accelerate this year.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
A guy on the Google team tweeted maybe five days ago, it's going to be a straight shot to ASI, artificial superintelligence. And I think that might be right. Ilya gave a talk at NeurIPS, Ilya Sutskever, one of the original pioneers of this field. And he said something that I thought was...
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
scary and he said these models that reason are inherently unpredictable so the best reasoning models in the world today are the ones that play games the kind of alpha go alpha zero style models and they are constantly making unpredictable moves that no human grand master ever could have come up with and now these models are going to be making similarly unpredictable leaps in all sorts of domains
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
which hopefully will be awesome, but it might not be.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
That will allow America to take resources out of Europe and put them in Japan and South Korea and all over the Pacific. That makes it a lot harder for you to do what you most want to do, which is
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Unquestioned, 1923, season two. I'm normally a science fiction kind of fantasy spy.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
of guy when it comes to tv but 1883 and 1923 were the first tv shows that kind of hit me the way game of thrones did and i'm crazy excited for that to come out fantastic are you watching land man i'm enjoying land man i haven't watched it yet i'm excited to try it it's quite fun quite fun turns out this guy taylor sheridan he's i mean he yeah it's incredible he's in the zone
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
reunify china and taiwan or invade taiwan uh let's call it what it is and i just think xi is going to begin decoupling from putin if you're trump you want to show that you're independent that you're not um enthralled to putin in any way so i think trump is going to be a lot tougher on putin than people think and i think he's going to get a very very uh a deal that's very very bad
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Yeah, I'm excited to hear Day of the Jackal, Sicario, yeah. Absolutely.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Yeah, it's reasonable.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Yeah, it is interesting. Obama deported, I think, more than 2 million people. It's like people have forgotten. But he was actually really, really tough on the border.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I mean, Google is. I would say they're a lot smaller, which makes it easier for them to grow faster. Yeah.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Well, it probably won't be Google because if they had the largest dollar gain, it would mean they were growing at insane rates. But I think Azure versus AWS will be interesting.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I think like most things, it'll take, like immigration, it'll take time to get going. Yeah. It just, it's going to take a little bit of time, but I think they will make progress. By the way, at some point, if I'm here on the all in again, I want to talk about UFOs and the drones. Let's talk about it now.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
So I don't know. And I think it's very clear. If you look at all the statements from the New Jersey mayors and governors who've met with the police, the FBI, the Defense Department that they don't know. Now, you know, Trump said someone in the government knows what they are. He also said he was not going to go to Bedminster anytime soon, his resort there.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
for Russia and Ukraine, and you've lost half a million people, and for what?
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I just think over the last, I'd say eight years, every 18 months, there's a big story in the New York Times, the Washington Post, the New Yorker, the Atlantic, very credible media sources that with dozens of interviews with fighter pilots and commercial pilots talking about seeing things with advanced sensors that made no sense to them. And then there's kind of a taboo that went away.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
There was an article in the New Yorker where they quoted from a bunch of people who were at, you know, kind of the skunkworks laboratories in the 1950s and said they absolutely saw extraterrestrial materials that have been recovered from a crash. That's one reason the US made such big leaps in material science.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And, you know, there was the Uemana thing where essentially a lot of, you know, astronomers said, hey, this is clearly a UFO of some sort, including the head of astronomy at Harvard. And then just the conspiracy theory I would have is if, if, if, if, if, These are actually UFOs and not government drones, either from the United States or China.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
It seems like the most likely explanation in New Jersey is that some sort of a drill. And obviously, once this hysteria gets going, people misidentify commercial airplanes as drones. And why would UFOs have blinking green and red lights? But it is just interesting that there was a big concentration of these reports
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
as we were scaling into nuclear technology, 1945 to 1960, and then now that AI is getting going, which is the next kind of technological phase shift for humanity, there's another big kind of bolus of reports.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I mean, I think it depends how deeply it's classified. And I'm sure if the government doesn't want to give it up, they won't give it up. But, you know, there's all the, you know, there's all this.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
Yeah. And, you know, they call it UAPs now to make it, you know, not flying saucers. But it just feels like something funny.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
At least 20%. 20% from Chamath.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I would say 25%. I would take the over on the 20%.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
I don't know. It is so strange the way there are, you know, in so many, I would say, cultures all over the world, pre, you know, we are closer in time to Cleopatra than she was to the time of the Great Pyramids. Like, that was a long time ago. But it's just weird that in so many cultures all over the world, there are these depictions of what looked like astronauts.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
And then there's all these Renaissance era paintings that clearly show what we would call UFOs in the skies over cities. So I don't know. I just think it's- I'm with you.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
But I think Trump said something very interesting about John Bolton. He said the guy was absolutely crazy, but it was awesome having him in the room when you were negotiating deals. Because people looked at this guy looking angry, red in the face, so excited to hit the nuclear button, so excited to go to war. And you ended up with much better deals.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
So I think you're going to see probably a lot more bellicosity from the Trump administration than anyone expects. And that's just to get a good deal done. for, you know, between Russia and Ukraine. And then it's to get China to kind of decouple from Russia. So I think the in reality, I think you're right, David.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
But I think there will be a lot of rhetoric that is at odds with what you're saying before you end up being right.