Brian Deese

Look, I think a lot of the market reaction can be explained by exactly that, which is initially the market thought he wasn't serious and he wouldn't do this. And then the market thought, well, he will threaten these tariffs, but he won't actually put them into effect.

Look, I think a lot of the market reaction can be explained by exactly that, which is initially the market thought he wasn't serious and he wouldn't do this. And then the market thought, well, he will threaten these tariffs, but he won't actually put them into effect.

And now I think there is still a belief that he may put them into effect, but they'll only be in effect for a short period of time because this is negotiating. All of that is to say, though, the right way to think about the impact is not what happens to the Dow today. It's what happens to the prices that people pay on typical things for no apparent reason.

And now I think there is still a belief that he may put them into effect, but they'll only be in effect for a short period of time because this is negotiating. All of that is to say, though, the right way to think about the impact is not what happens to the Dow today. It's what happens to the prices that people pay on typical things for no apparent reason.

The Wall Street Journal called this the dumbest trade war in history. It's one of the few times I think that the Wall Street Journal actually understated it. This is all self-imposed. And so even if the impact is only for a short period of time or only muted, we're still, the end result is people are paying more for no apparent reason.

The Wall Street Journal called this the dumbest trade war in history. It's one of the few times I think that the Wall Street Journal actually understated it. This is all self-imposed. And so even if the impact is only for a short period of time or only muted, we're still, the end result is people are paying more for no apparent reason.

Sure. So start the price impacts on the goods that we rely most on Canada and Mexico for. So fruits and vegetables, Super Bowl time, avocados, most of our fruits and vegetables we import from Mexico. The price of those things is going to go up by about 25%. Gas at the pump. There are certain regions of the country, particularly the Midwest, that rely on imported petroleum products from Canada.

Sure. So start the price impacts on the goods that we rely most on Canada and Mexico for. So fruits and vegetables, Super Bowl time, avocados, most of our fruits and vegetables we import from Mexico. The price of those things is going to go up by about 25%. Gas at the pump. There are certain regions of the country, particularly the Midwest, that rely on imported petroleum products from Canada.

Most estimates are that you'd see a 50-cent increase in gas in the Midwest, probably more like 25 cents across the country. But it could be higher in particular places. And then the kind of typical goods that you see walking down a Target aisle or a Walmart aisle. So iPhones, toasters, consumer electronics.

Most estimates are that you'd see a 50-cent increase in gas in the Midwest, probably more like 25 cents across the country. But it could be higher in particular places. And then the kind of typical goods that you see walking down a Target aisle or a Walmart aisle. So iPhones, toasters, consumer electronics.

are all going to go up by in the ballpark of 25% because when a tariff is applied, it's not just that the importer pays the tariff. It's that the competitors then raise their prices to match those. And so the consumer ends up paying most of that. So in terms of practical and practically, most of what you buy, if you're walking down the grocery store or you're walking through a Target or Walmart,

are all going to go up by in the ballpark of 25% because when a tariff is applied, it's not just that the importer pays the tariff. It's that the competitors then raise their prices to match those. And so the consumer ends up paying most of that. So in terms of practical and practically, most of what you buy, if you're walking down the grocery store or you're walking through a Target or Walmart,

The prices are going to go up. The first order impact is typical consumers pay more on things like groceries and gas and consumer electronics. The second order impact is if that actually gets washed away by a stronger dollar, then it hurts American manufacturers, which is why I saw a cartoon trying to say, what is Trump actually doing?

The prices are going to go up. The first order impact is typical consumers pay more on things like groceries and gas and consumer electronics. The second order impact is if that actually gets washed away by a stronger dollar, then it hurts American manufacturers, which is why I saw a cartoon trying to say, what is Trump actually doing?

where Trump was pissing into a fan and it was spitting all back into his face. And usually that's sort of evocative, but actually I think that's not an unreasonable way of thinking about what's going on here. It's hard to avoid this coming back in and being self-defeating in some way or shape or form.

where Trump was pissing into a fan and it was spitting all back into his face. And usually that's sort of evocative, but actually I think that's not an unreasonable way of thinking about what's going on here. It's hard to avoid this coming back in and being self-defeating in some way or shape or form.

Look, the place I'm most worried about is the auto industry because the auto industry is incredibly dependent on the interrelationship with Canada and Mexico. A lot of the parts that go into making a car are produced in Canada and they go back and forth over the border. Anyone who lives in Michigan or has been up in Detroit, the Windsor Bridge,

Look, the place I'm most worried about is the auto industry because the auto industry is incredibly dependent on the interrelationship with Canada and Mexico. A lot of the parts that go into making a car are produced in Canada and they go back and forth over the border. Anyone who lives in Michigan or has been up in Detroit, the Windsor Bridge,

you know, the, the, our auto industry is essentially one industry that operates across a border. So to build a, you know, to build a typical, if GM is building a typical car, parts might go back and forth across that border five, six, seven different times. And so the industry right now is really freaking out and saying, we've never had to grapple with the question of is it

you know, the, the, our auto industry is essentially one industry that operates across a border. So to build a, you know, to build a typical, if GM is building a typical car, parts might go back and forth across that border five, six, seven different times. And so the industry right now is really freaking out and saying, we've never had to grapple with the question of is it